Coronavirus

[rico]

It was roughly a year ago when I got admitted into the hospital.  Without getting into whys, I had to wait 36 hours to get a bed/room.  The hospital was full up of people that had the flu.  Spent 5 days here and once my issue was "resolved" I was quickly released to make more room for flu patients.  I had 2 weeks of home health care after that dealing with the issue.  

[5fouls]

I am in agreement that the total number of people infected with Covid 19 is grossly understated due to the lack of testing.  The flip side of that is that the number of deaths related to Covid 19 is NOT grossly understated.  

6500 deaths on 150,000 infections is bad.  6500 deaths on 5,000,000 infected is not good, but it's a lot better percentage.

Look, I'll defer to the 'experts' to tell us what and what not to do. But, I also have a right to be upset that my 401k has tanked and I feel that is partly to do with unnecessary panic fueled by some media outlets.

[rogue3542]

The "this is overreaction" posts are maddening.

It's not overreaction.  We aren't trying to stop people from eventually getting it or doing this because of the mortality rate.  It's well known it affects primarily older people at 1-2% generally.

The MASSIVE issue is that we need to contain the spread.  I suggest you read this post: https://imgur.com/gallery/Folab56 . It's just a social media post, but it mathematically breaks down why this is a big deal.  I also suggest people look up what "flattening the curve" means.

To put it succinctly, if the numbers continue to climb as they have been, going up by a factor of ten every week or so, we are about a month away from our hospitals being completely overwhelmed.  At that point, doctors and nurses are going to have to start deciding who gets treatment and who gets to go home to possibly die.  

It's not just about this virus, either.  Having hospitals at capacity is going to affect ANYONE who needs medical attention, but if we can slow down the transmission, we won't so heavily overwhelm the hospitals.  If we don't, you'll see mortality rates for literally every illness/condition go up, because we will be operating our hospitals like a front-line warzone triage unit.

This is what is happening in Italy, and we'd have to be complete fools not to take that as a lesson.  For reference, their mortality rate is currently at 7.3%, which doesn't factor in other medical problems that are going to be exacerbated by hospitals being at 200% capacity.

I urge everyone to take this seriously and take simple steps to limit the spread.

[5fouls]

West Virginia still does not have a reported case.  That has moved beyond being a statistical anomaly.  

[rico]

4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

West Virginia still does not have a reported case.  That has moved beyond being a statistical anomaly.  

No test "kits" in that state?

[tdhoosier]

30 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

This is certainly an area where people are going to disagree, and no offense taken, at all.

This virus, according to every expert out there, affects the elderly and those with diminished immune systems. It is not dangerous to kids, it is not dangerous to most people across the wide age ranges up to the elderly, or those with healthy immune systems. This is, also, per the "experts." Your not comparing it to the flu based on number of cases is misleading. It really is. It's not a matter of just number of cases -- communicability -- it is how many people become seriously ill and die every single year, to the flu, vs. how many people have died (and in what ages) worldwide to this virus. The flu kills vastly more people, kids, and healthy folks, across all age ranges.

The real point or comparison here is not that this disease does not, or might not eventually kill more people than the flu, it is that, CLEARLY, the flu is an extremely serious diseases that kills people in very large numbers across all age ranges every single year, and we do NOT shut down the world economy over it. Think about the consequences to everyone. Thousands and thousands of people are losing and will lose their jobs, thelr livelihoods, their retirement income/retirement accounts, etc. etc. The stock market is headed towards the great crash of the 20's.

Meanwhile, as of now, appx 6,500  people have died from this virus. The CDC estimates that each year between 12,000 and 61,000 people die from the flu. How many people died from the swine flu alone? Per the CDC, 151,000 to almost 550,000 people worldwide. Almost half a million people, but the world did not go into panic and destroy world economies.

So serious question for you. Do you really think this is being handled correctly? 

I don't think this is being handled correctly because we are in a reactionary state. The fact that this thing was greatly bungled from the start has put us into a situation where all reported statistics aren't the same. We don't know what's what and have jumped to the situation we're in: we're exercising caution on the unknown rather than being proactive and isolating specific clusters. 

BUT because we were late, are still learning about the virus and don't know how many people really have it, we were forced to take extreme measures. The maddening thing is that much of this could have been avoided. 

AND as I'm writing this, we STILL don't have enough testing. Thousands of people are being turned away everyday from taking a test. 

And all due respect, you are comparing numbers to a years worth of flu deaths (4 strains of it) to a virus that started in January. The flu (and the number infected from it) is also something we are for the most part prepared to treat. Corona is a new virus that's growing exponentially and at a rate that's 2 to 3 times faster than the flu. That's why I said above "wait until next week". I really hope I'm wrong but this thing is likely to surpass a whole year's worth of flu cases very quickly. Like Rogue said, at this point it's about not getting to the point where we overwhelming our healthcare system. 

And you didn't really answer my question. Is there a point it needs get to for you not to consider the steps taken in the last 5 days an over-reaction? For me, it's doctors choosing who lives and who dies because they don't have enough equipment or resources to treat everyone. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by tdhoosier

[rico]

It is what it is.  We need to deal with it.

Mom and Dad came over last night for supper.  Dad asked some very good questions that were directed at me and Tammy.

Do you guys have enough food for 2 weeks?  A month?

Can you pay your bills without any income coming in for 2 weeks?  A month?

Do you have a 3 month supply of your prescriptions?

Made us think hard.

[Hoosierhoopster]

11 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I don't think this is being handled correctly because we are in a reactionary state. The fact that this thing was greatly bungled from the start has put us into a situation where all reported statistics aren't the same. We don't know what's what and have jumped to the situation we're in: we're exercising caution on the unknown rather than being proactive and isolating specific clusters. 

BUT because we were late, are still learning about the virus and don't know how many people really have it, we were forced to take extreme measures. The maddening thing is that much of this could have been avoided. 

AND as I'm writing this, we STILL don't have enough testing. Thousands of people are being turned away everyday from taking a test. 

And all due respect, you are comparing numbers to a years worth of flu deaths (4 strains of it) to a virus that started in January. The flu (and the number infected from it) is also something we are for the most part prepared to treat. Corona is a new virus that's growing exponentially and at a rate that's 2 to 3 times faster than the flu. That's why I said above "wait until next week". I really hope I'm wrong but this thing is likely to surpass a whole year's worth of flu cases very quickly. Like Rogue said, at this point it's about not getting to the point where we overwhelming our healthcare system. 

And you didn't really answer my question. Is there a point it needs get to for you not to consider the steps taken in the last 5 days an over-reaction? For me, it's doctors choosing who lives and who dies because they don't have enough equipment or resources to treat everyone. 

I absolutely agree this has been handled terribly, the lack of test kits has and will contribute to the spread (and the panic / overreaction). I also agree we are still learning about the severity of the virus and how many people it will eventually affect. I am not dismissing the virus as a serious medical situation.

But I'm not into the reactionary predictions, your question, what will it take, is like some kind of dooms day scenario prediction. Of course I might have a different opinion if this virus exponentially goes crazy world wide, particularly in death toll, not how many people have it -- again, it is well know, right now, that most people who contract it are NOT in any danger, at all. It is, for most people, NOT serious. That really is fact, right now. The danger is, again, to the elderly and those with reduced immune systems, and the actions being taken (like no visitors to nursing homes -- which IS a good response), is to try to limit the spread to those at risk.

And you're ignoring the swine flu. Again, half a million people. We did not go into worldwide panic over it. Listen, I fully get, as does I think everyone, that this is serious. But, frankly, so is the flu, so was the swine flu, etc. The overreaction is causing massive financial destruction nationwide and worldwide. That is not, in any way, a good way to deal with this virus.

[Hoosierhoopster]

3 minutes ago, rico said:

It is what it is.  We need to deal with it.

Mom and Dad came over last night for supper.  Dad asked some very good questions that were directed at me and Tammy.

Do you guys have enough food for 2 weeks?  A month?

Can you pay your bills without any income coming in for 2 weeks?  A month?

Do you have a 3 month supply of your prescriptions?

Made us think hard.

Yes these are good questions. But the flip side is people running out to the grocery stores -- which are simply not short or running short on anything -- and buying up all the food / stockpiling for disaster. That's a panicked, reactionary, and over all very bad response, for everyone. 

[rogue3542]

2 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I absolutely agree this has been handled terribly, the lack of test kits has and will contribute to the spread (and the panic / overreaction). I also agree we are still learning about the severity of the virus and how many people it will eventually affect. I am not dismissing the virus as a serious medical situation.

But I'm not into the reactionary predictions, your question, what will it take, is like some kind of dooms day scenario prediction. Of course I might have a different opinion if this virus exponentially goes crazy world wide, particularly in death toll, not how many people have it -- again, it is well know, right now, that most people who contract it are NOT in any danger, at all. It is, for most people, NOT serious. That really is fact, right now. The danger is, again, to the elderly and those with reduced immune systems, and the actions being taken (like no visitors to nursing homes -- which IS a good response), is to try to limit the spread to those at risk.

And you're ignoring the swine flu. Again, half a million people. We did not go into worldwide panic over it. Listen, I fully get, as does I think everyone, that this is serious. But, frankly, so is the flu, so was the swine flu, etc. The overreaction is causing massive financial destruction nationwide and worldwide. That is not, in any way, a good way to deal with this virus.

If we can test, find clusters, and successfully contain those clusters, we can quickly go back to the status quo.

The people calling this a hoax coupled with the fact we did absolutely nothing as a country to prepare is what has put us in this situation.  Now, we are in mitigation mode, whereas if we were proactive in initially testing, identifying, and quarantining, we wouldn't have to take these drastic measures.

[tdhoosier]

1 minute ago, rico said:

It is what it is.  We need to deal with it.

Mom and Dad came over last night for supper.  Dad asked some very good questions that were directed at me and Tammy.

Do you guys have enough food for 2 weeks?  A month?

Can you pay your bills without any income coming in for 2 weeks?  A month?

Do you have a 3 month supply of your prescriptions?

Made us think hard.

Excellent message. We can argue about numbers all we want, pretend to be epidemiologists , blame the media, blame politicians, etc.  

At some point we need to grab a shovel and dig our way out - it just makes it hard when we don't have any solid facts. When we don't know how long this will last or how far the market will fall. We need to challenge ourselves to stay positive, move on and do our part. 

[tdhoosier]

2 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

If we can test, find clusters, and successfully contain those clusters, we can quickly go back to the status quo.

The people calling this a hoax coupled with the fact we did absolutely nothing as a country to prepare is what has put us in this situation.  Now, we are in mitigation mode, whereas if we were proactive in initially testing, identifying, and quarantining, we wouldn't have to take these drastic measures.

Our country and other countries have a lot to learn from this. South Korea was ahead of the curve because they had to deal with SARS - they knew what to do. The threat was real to them. The threat wasn't 'real' 2 months ago. Heck, it wasn't even 'real' a week ago.

[rico]

14 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes these are good questions. But the flip side is people running out to the grocery stores -- which are simply not short or running short on anything -- and buying up all the food / stockpiling for disaster. That's a panicked, reactionary, and over all very bad response, for everyone. 

I heard last week that 53% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck...

[IU Scott]

15 hours ago, Inequality said:

For the Indiana folk..

I thought I heard we had one in Hancock County where a person working for the county jail was diagnosed with it.

[IU Scott]

3 hours ago, bronkonagurski said:

My employer has instituted mandatory work-from-home effective immediately.

My work on Friday sent out an e-mail saying we are not having face to face meetings in our office with outside vendors.  Also talking about having employees working remotely but we are still working in our office.

[5fouls]

2 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Our country and other countries have a lot to learn from this. South Korea was ahead of the curve because they had to deal with SARS - they knew what to do. The threat was real to them. The threat wasn't 'real' 2 months ago. Heck, it wasn't even 'real' a week ago.

We've been told that South Korea has handled this as well as could be expected.  But, we need to keep a couple of things in mind when doing a comparison. 

Number one is that they are further removed from their first infection than we are.  In other words, they have had longer to turn the corner.

Secondly, there is a significant population difference between the 2 countries.  70 deaths in the US is not the same as 70 deaths in South Korea.

I truly feel that, when this is all over, the human impact on the US will compare very favorably than with other countries that legitimately report.  The question is whether it will be reported that way

[rico]

https://www.wane.com/news/indiana/indiana-governor-closes-restaurants-and-bars-implements-other-efforts-to-slow-virus-spread/

[5fouls]

Kentucky has reported its first death.  66 year old with underlying health conditions.

[milehiiu]

Continuing with the craziness.  The entire country of Spain. has been put on lock down.

[rico]

2 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Continuing with the craziness.  The entire country of Spain. has been put on lock down.

That will come here...be prepared.  Just forget about the toilet paper.

[FritzIam4IU]

1 minute ago, rico said:

That will come here...be prepared.  Just forget about the toilet paper.

wife heard a rumor that it could be in 48 hours....

[IU Scott]

My question when they say they shut a whole country down what does that mean.  I have a hard time seeing if they do this here where every company would just shut down and not go to work.  I work for a trucking company and we have thousands of drivers out on the road so it would be hard for us to just to say go home.

[milehiiu]

13 minutes ago, rico said:

That will come here...be prepared.  Just forget about the toilet paper.

Ironically.  My wife swims normally swims every weekday at our local club. The club has yet to close. But is limiting the number of members in each room.  She got in today. And we have a Costco close to the club. She called ahead, and they told her they have an ample supply of toilet paper. But to get there as soon as possible. And they are limiting purchases to one package per person.

Also on Saturday. My wife went to a meeting for a group she attends every two weeks at a local Panera.  I was apprehensive. But did not say no to her, as she is an officer. Anyway... my wife came home and told me about a lady with a walker who loaded up by packing her purse with napkins. 

[milehiiu]

3 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

My question when they say they shut a whole country down what does that mean.  I have a hard time seeing if they do this here where every company would just shut down and not go to work.  I work for a trucking company and we have thousands of drivers out on the road so it would be hard for us to just to say go home.

Spain Issues National Lockdown to Prevent Spread of COVID-19

[IUFLA]

A guy I work with went into a CVS yesterday and tried to use the restroom...they wouldn't let him because people have been stealing the toilet paper...