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Reacher

By Reacher
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mrflynn03

mrflynn03

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2 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

Perfect example of while we can disagree on this point in general, it ultimately doesn't matter what we think. Our recent history will be a pretty accurate indicator of how future policy decisions will be made. And while I thank you for taking necessary precautions, my fear is that people not as tolerant as yourself may be doing long term damage (in the form of more aggressive restrictions) in exchange for the short term feeling of freedom, defiance or pleasure. They're only going to make themselves madder with these acts of defiance. And they aren't only doing it to themselves, but everybody else too. People who disagree AND agree with them. I think this is what @IU Scott is getting at when he refers to others' selfishness. 

So let's debate this, but let's debate it while keeping the case count low. I hope my overall point is taken as an effort to silence. 

Covid-19: the problems with case counting

This is from the British Medical Journal but but applicable to the US too. 

 

Article from Forbes

Three Misleading, Dangerous Coronavirus Statistics

Edited by mrflynn03
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tdhoosier

tdhoosier

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17 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Covid-19: the problems with case counting

This is from the British Medical Journal but but applicable to the US too. 

Again, my overall point was that despite how accurate the positivity rates may or may not be in terms of indicating a dangerous outbreak, when they get to a certain level, history tells us restrictions will be tightened by the government. So let's just do our best to keep them down so we can avoid that situation all together and enjoy this winter as best we can.

And all due respect, I just don't have any interest re-hashing out what we've already hashed out numerous times in the past. I just feel we go in circles and nothing gets resolved. Weren't we talking about this already in early July when the following scenario happened afterwards: a jump in cases lead to a jump in positivity rate, lead to a jump in hospital rates, lead to a jump in deaths? I don't need an article to tell me what I witnessed with my own eyes isn't actually what I witnessed. 

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5fouls

5fouls

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While we're discussing the link's @mrflynn03posted, let's not overlook the one from Forbes.  I've copied an excerpt below and highlighted some key points..

3. The case fatality rate of Covid-19

Through hundreds of thousands of years of evolution, humans have become fairly good at detecting threats. Most people know to avoid things that slither, sting or snap their jaws. But when it comes to invisible enemies, like viruses, humans have to rely on science to understand how deadly they may be.

There are a number of different ways to measure the severity of a viral threat. One of those measures, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), is based on factual numbers but is both inaccurate and misleading. It’s derived from a simple equation: the ratio between confirmed deaths (based on death certificates) and confirmed cases (based on positive Covid-19 tests). The CFR is only as accurate as those two data points. 

Since the number of cases is grossly undercounted, the mortality rate is significantly overstated. Previous estimates have placed the mortality rate as high as 4% but, with more frequent testing in recent months, that number has declined. The current mortality estimate is closer to 3%. 

Even that lower number assumes there have been fewer than 7 million U.S. cases and that asymptomatic people are all being tested. Neither assumption is possible. In fact, worldwide mortality from the coronavirus could be as low as 0.3%, based on highly controlled data from Iceland. What’s the point? A ten-fold difference (3% versus 0.3%) is both massive and highly consequential. 

Officials use mortality rates to determine the most appropriate response to infectious diseases. Ebola, for example, kills 50% of the people it infects on average, which is why the doctors who treat it wear hazmat suits. Seasonal flu, meanwhile, only kills around 0.1%. Thus, there are no public lockdown orders during flu season. In fact, half of all Americans don’t even bother getting vaccinated. 

Though the exact mortality rate of the coronavirus isn’t yet known, it is unlike Ebola and influenza in one important way: They are both “equal opportunity killers,” posing a relatively equal threat to the youngest and oldest populations. Not so with this coronavirus. Covid-19 spares approximately 99.99% of people under 24. By contrast, it claims 35% of people 85 years or older, the majority of whom have at least one chronic illness. 

Therefore, focusing on just one number—an overall mortality rate—does no one any good. Using it, policymakers have implemented a one-size-fits-none set of public health measures that over-restrict younger people who are relatively safe and under-support those at gravest danger, all while reaping economic and societal damage on all Americans. 

Had health experts and lawmakers made decisions based on mortality by age and existing health status, they might have adopted a segmented national health policy, one designed to save the most lives possible without inflicting undue psychological harm on those who are at minimal risk.

Instead, they acted on the wrong set of data, underscoring a dangerous truth: Statistics can be both factual and misleading.

 

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5fouls

5fouls

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Since I know many don't like to open links, here is another excerpt from the Forbes article.  Once again, I've highlighted what I personally believe to be key points.

 

1. The number of confirmed cases

Late last month, the United States reached what CBS News called a “grim milestone,” topping 6 million confirmed Covid-19 cases. The number, compiled by Johns Hopkins University, is both accurate and misleading. 

The key word here is “confirmed” cases (positive tests), which pundits and the public often confuse with the number of actual Covid-19 infections. The latter figure is much, much higher, according to researchers. 

In July, a study from MIT concluded that the number of Covid-19 cases could be 12 times higher than reported. Further, recent scenario planning from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) included a “current best estimate” that 40% of people infected with Covid-19 are asymptomatic and, therefore, unlikely to be screened or counted among the population of confirmed cases. 

Based on serological testing data and this new research on asymptomatic carriers, health experts estimate that tens of millions of cases still have not yet been recorded. 

That’s a major problem, one that’s proving hazardous to our nation’s health.

Knowing the actual number of infected individuals, and whether the rate is increasing or declining, helps health experts predict pending hospitalizations and deaths. The true number also tells officials whether the nation is effectively containing the virus or on the brink of disaster. The issue with the more commonly cited statistic of “confirmed cases” is that politicians and news outlets use it as a surrogate for actual cases, tethering Americans to a distorted view of the pandemic. 

There’s a huge difference between confirming 6 million cases and dealing with the reality of 20, 30 or 40 million Americans who may have been infected with the coronavirus. Six million may be an accurate statistic, but it fails to reflect the real rate of transmission, and it helps to explain the ineffectiveness of public health policies to date. 

 

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5fouls

5fouls

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3 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

😯

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/519282-president-trump-melania-trump-test-positive-for-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR1EmjvIXlXj2fz4P0PRi4-GcZAZWQBbucLebuDz2wVsoRXdUoDJHmSdC54

One of the challenges in a situation like this when it comes to contact tracing is whether the aide gave it to him or he gave it to her?  Or, did a 3rd party give it to both?  The timeline is such that just because her positive test came back first, there is no guarantee that's where he picked it up.  It appears the positive results are only a few hours apart.   

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dbmhoosier

dbmhoosier

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2 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

One of the challenges in a situation like this when it comes to contact tracing is whether the aide gave it to him or he gave it to her?  Or, did a 3rd party give it to both?  The timeline is such that just because her positive test came back first, there is no guarantee that's where he picked it up.  It appears the positive results are only a few hours apart.   

Hopefully Pence doesn't have it.

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TheWatShot

TheWatShot

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14 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Good Lord...Why in the world would you be skeptical? 

Perfect campaigning tool to claim he survived it and it was nothing. Not to mention it's happening a month before the election, right before early voting begins, and right after a debate that drew all kinds of criticism. 

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tdhoosier

tdhoosier

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13 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Perfect campaigning tool to claim he survived it and it was nothing. Not to mention it's happening a month before the election, right before early voting begins, and right after a debate that drew all kinds of criticism. 

Not trying to be a Boy Scout, but let’s self moderate here. The mods have been through enough this week. 

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5fouls

5fouls

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I have no reason to believe it's fake news.  One thing we need to consider regarding how this turns out is that the quality of medical attention he receives will exceed that of other obese 74 year old males that contract the virus.

If he beats it, that does not mean it is not deadly.  Available, top notch medical care comes with being President of the U.S.  That type of care is not found in the vast majority of hospitals and communities in the U.S.

If he gets seriously ill, or even dies, there is so much unknown about this virus that would not really tell us anything new either.  Even among at-risk groups, the virus hits some harder than others. We don't know yet which side of that fence the President is.  

And, as we know, many people that have the virus are asymptomatic.  He could legitimately be one of those as well.

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Seeking6

Seeking6

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14 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Had not heard much lately about the loss of smell and/or taste related to Covid.  New study points to them as being a very reliable indicator.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/health/covid-19-symptom-smell-loss-taste-loss-study-wellness/index.html

Funny you bring this up. First thing each morning...I better taste the cinnamon I add to my coffee....and I always smell my disinfectant wipes just to make sure. Once I do those two things I feel like I made another day. Haha.

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5fouls

5fouls

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2 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Funny you bring this up. First thing each morning...I better taste the cinnamon I add to my coffee....and I always smell my disinfectant wipes just to make sure. Once I do those two things I feel like I made another day. Haha.

Just be careful not to get those two things mixed up.  Smelling the cinnamon may not be too bad.  But, tasting the disinfectant wipes....

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Seeking6

Seeking6

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1 minute ago, 5fouls said:

Just be careful not to get those two things mixed up.  Smelling the cinnamon may not be too bad.  But, tasting the disinfectant wipes....

Trust me. Over the last 6 months I've got very used to the taste of disinfectant. All accidentally of course but almost impossible to avoid.

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IUFLA

IUFLA

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52 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Perfect campaigning tool to claim he survived it and it was nothing. Not to mention it's happening a month before the election, right before early voting begins, and right after a debate that drew all kinds of criticism. 

Yep...dig deep enough you can find a boogeyman behind everything...

🙄

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