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Okay, I have intentionally stayed away from this thread for awhile, so I've not read most of it. Some random thoughts. Our company is considered essential so we have been fully open since April. In a plant of about 400 workers, we have had about 50 positives. One sits in a cube about 15' from me. I said on page one I believe, I was worried about the supply chain! We had to shut our main line down yesterday because the wrong stainless steel was delivered. Our wire harness supplier is having difficulties getting components. And I can't get our molder to sample the new molds I sent to them, so we may have to shut down another line come December! Everyday we have about 30 people not show up for work! Thursday my boss and I went to Moe's for lunch, while Moe's was doing the right things like closing off every other table, people were not. With about 30 people in the resteraunt, about half doing carry out, besides the staff, myself and my boss only three other people were wearing masks! Crazy thing, none of the carry out people were wearing masks? 

People this stuff is real while most of the people I know only experienced mild symptoms, I just found out yesterday a guy I know in the plant, his wife's sister passed away from CV. Just 5 days after her husband died of CV!

Sorry for my rant!

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

 "a program that could turn the tables on the virus in weeks, as we are now seeing in Slovakia—where massive screening has, in two weeks, completely turned the epidemic around."

Did they even read the article they cited

"An initial 3-day pilot testing scheme in four regions in the north of the country that have become infection hotspots began on Oct 23, 2020, ahead of mass testing of the rest of the population on the two weekends of Oct 30–Nov 1, and Nov 6–8. But questions remain about the effectiveness and safety of an operation that was only announced 2 weeks before it was due to begin, with some infectious disease experts warning that the plan could put people's health at risk and undermine public trust in measures to contain the virus's spread."

And if you read the rest of the article, it's not really leading to any conclusions just yet...and certainly "not completely turned the epidemic around."

I'm also very skeptical of this...

"if we act today, could allow us to see our loved ones, go back to school and work, and travel—all before Christmas."

@tdhoosier I'm not trying to crap on the article, it's got some good info, but the minute I read...

"There is no question that if 1,000 Americans were dying each day in a war, we would act swiftly and decisively. Yet, we are not. This should not be about politics—it is about human beings—and we should be acting like it.

So far, the U.S. government has put most of our eggs in the vaccine basket"

Which kinda contradicts itself right off the bat.

First, you really can't equate war and a virus. Again, man against man is one thing...man against Mother Nature is something quite different. How WOULD we stop 1,000 deaths a day due to war? Surrender? Armistice? What "swift and decisive" action would we employ? Nukes? Very poor analogy...

It IS all hands on deck at this point though...if we can figure out the logistics, and get people on board, it might be a huge success...But at this point, where SHOULD we be putting "all of our eggs?" Getting the vaccine out, or deploying rapid antigen tests? I know the answer is "we can do both" but do you really think so effectively and efficiently?

I admittedly didn’t click into that link and it. Is strange they would choose that article to support their point. 

However, that Lancet article is from 10/31 when the program was being implemented. All the criticism was speculation. I was curious to see what the results of the testing program were 3 weeks in. This is the most recent article I found. I haven’t heard of this source (So I’m taking it with a grain of salt), but will be interested in seeing updated results as others report on it. I posted a clip of that article below.

That said, am I advocating this? Not necessarily; just thought it is an interesting strategy in a time when we are looking for solutions. I don’t think there’s any harm in seeing how Slovakia does with this and determining success based on results, not speculation from people before the test was even implemented. The UK is also implementing a similar program. (While, like us, planning a vaccine roll out) So to answer that question, I think we can do 2 things at one time....if there is the will to do it. I’m actually surprised you don’t. Does the UK have more resources or money than we do? We are in a pandemic; I think we should be looking at all options and that we should be doing anything and everything we can to implement viable options. Is mass testing a viable option? I don’t know, but we should find out. 

“Within a week—truly, within a week—they stopped the virus from exponentially growing on a country level, to dropping incidence by half,” Michael Mina, an epidemiology professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said on a press call on November 18. “Two weeks later, it dropped more. They’re doing . . . the third mass testing this week. I think it’s the best proof that we have, at the moment, anyway, that this can work.”

By the end of last week, the reproductive rate of the virus in the country was between 0.7 and 0.9, meaning that each person who is infected is infecting fewer than one person. Last weekend, Slovakia’s health minister wrote a Facebook post saying that the testing program “broke the curve” and “directed it quite steeply down.” He noted, though, that mass testing would have to continue or the rates would grow again. The country reopened theaters, churches, and other mass gathering spots on Monday, with reduced capacity.

Mina argues that if something similar had happened in the U.S., life could be completely different now. “These tests could have allowed Thanksgiving to happen normally, had we started this in August,” he says. “These tests . . . could still get us to have a much better Christmas. But we have to start today.” The government needs to step up with clear leadership and strategy, he says. “At the end of the day, we need to act like we’re in a war, and like we’re actually having something bad happen to America.”

Edited by tdhoosier
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8 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I think we can do 2 things at one time. if there is the will to do it. I’m actually surprised you don’t.

Not necessarily that I don't, it's just I've seen our government in action (not just during the pandemic) and I'd hate to spend time, effort, and money martialling resources at the expense of rolling out a vaccine, which most people see as the "nirvana" here. 

Maybe we can do both, and that would be a good thing. But I think the goal is in sight, though I'm not optimistic enough to believe that we'll be able to return to any semblance of normalcy before Christmas, no matter what we do.

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38 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Not necessarily that I don't, it's just I've seen our government in action (not just during the pandemic) and I'd hate to spend time, effort, and money martialling resources at the expense of rolling out a vaccine, which most people see as the "nirvana" here. 

Maybe we can do both, and that would be a good thing. But I think the goal is in sight, though I'm not optimistic enough to believe that we'll be able to return to any semblance of normalcy before Christmas, no matter what we do.

I will agree that it’s optimistic to get anything done by Christmas, but if it is showing successful results maybe it’s not too far fetched to get something done by late January. Keep in mind mass testing has been an idea proposed since this summer. 

The bigger concern is the lack of action (or even the desire) taken on the federal level to do anything since this summer, who again has money and resources to make any major action of significance happen. They can’t even pass a stimulus due to the gridlock and end fighting. Don’t agree on your first point due to the low cost. We’ve spent far more money, effort, and resources  on far more ridiculous things. Not to mention  the economical benefits it would bring from not being in ‘the red’ (and the consequences that result from that). For a micro example of that, see @Drroogh’s post above. I’m seeing those effects too; my business depends on those manufacturing jobs. Outbreaks at many of my suppliers are causing huge delays. I spent all of Thursday diverting 12 orders I had in house at a supplier who had an outbreak. Waiting for a vaccine simply isn’t enough in my opinion; we are still in the beginning of this spike and and no plateau seems to be in the near future.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/italy-did-everything-right-to-stop-a-second-wave-of-the-coronavirus-so-what-went-wrong

Good question here. Why is this happening despite following all the recommendations of the "experts"?

"What's particularly troubling about the return of COVID in Italy is that the country has done everything experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci have been advising. Face masks in public places have been compulsory for months, social distancing is strongly enforced, nightclubs have never reopened, and sporting arenas are at less than a third of capacity. Children who are back at school are regularly tested and strictly social-distanced, and yet, the second wave seems completely unstoppable."

We were told for months to be more like Europe and now their cases are as high as ever.

coronavirus-data-explorer (34)

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5 hours ago, Reacher said:

There was some talk about NY reaching some level of herd immunity earlier. We'll see how this plays out-

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I've never bought into the herd immunity idea.  The numbers just don't seem to add up, at least in my mind.  If we took our current national rate of about 200,000 cases per day, and an estimate of 70% immune for herd immunity, that would take over 1000 days to get to the almost 230,000,000 people needed for herd immunity.

If we wanted to get to 70% immune in one year, we'd need to average 630,000 new cases every day.

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One thing that has troubled me in regards to what we are supposed to believe is the whole concept of the current surge being due to the weather cooling and people spending more time indoors.  

If the cooler/colder weather is that big of a factor in this thing, why did Arizona peak in June and Florida peak in July?  

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

One thing that has troubled me in regards to what we are supposed to believe is the whole concept of the current surge being due to the weather cooling and people spending more time indoors.  

If the cooler/colder weather is that big of a factor in this thing, why did Arizona peak in June and Florida peak in July?  

Because the hot weather drove them indoors into air conditioned environments? I'd imagined open air dining loses its appeal in 100 degree weather. 

I did hear this theorized back in July; didn't look into anything beyond that. 

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5 hours ago, Leathernecks said:

I've never bought into the herd immunity idea.  The numbers just don't seem to add up, at least in my mind.  If we took our current national rate of about 200,000 cases per day, and an estimate of 70% immune for herd immunity, that would take over 1000 days to get to the almost 230,000,000 people needed for herd immunity.

If we wanted to get to 70% immune in one year, we'd need to average 630,000 new cases every day.

Here is my thoughts on herd immunity.  It will eventually happen, with vaccines and natural transmission.  Past pandemics typically last 18-24 months.  

@tdhoosier some time back I said I would eat crow if I was wrong.  Well eating crow isnt too bad with copious amounts of hot sauce.

I've resigned myself to the point that we will probably be dealing with this until late next year or mid 2021. A vaccine will not be a panacea.  

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11 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

Here is my thoughts on herd immunity.  It will eventually happen, with vaccines and natural transmission.  Past pandemics typically last 18-24 months.  

@tdhoosier some time back I said I would eat crow if I was wrong.  Well eating crow isnt too bad with copious amounts of hot sauce.

I've resigned myself to the point that we will probably be dealing with this until late next year or mid 2021. A vaccine will not be a panacea.  

That’s where I am with how long we will be dealing with this. At least through summer of next year, but hopefully the crazy number of cases and deaths will go down after a bad winter. 

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I'm getting more comfortable with the idea of taking the vaccine, assuming it clears the FDA.

I was listening to an interview with the Vaccine Czar and he had some interesting things to say. I'm going off of memory so my relaying of this info is a bit fuzzy and the terminology may not be 100% accurate, but hopefully I relay the idea well enough. 

The virus is similar to other viruses and has the very similar RNA code. Scientists created the vaccine quickly because a lot of the work was already done on previous vaccines with that similar code.  The analogy Dr. Slaoui used was: they had the cassette player, it was just a matter of developing the cassette. 

Regarding the long term effects we can't possibly know about: He said based on vaccination history, 90-95% of vaccines that show no significant short term side effects (anything beyond short term fevers, body aches, fatigue, etc.) don't have significant long term side effects. And RNA vaccines that use this 'cassette player' so far have a positive long term outlook. 

That said, the short term side effects reported about this vaccine are a little worse than your common flu shot but still only temporary. I've read a small percentage may be in for a rough night after receiving it. I just hope that if this is the case this the government will effectively communicate it so expectations are managed before horror stories of temporary fevers run rampant on social media. You know - the ones that start with my cousin's neighbor's grandma......

Dr. Slaoui said it may be possible to get back to normal life by May. I think the high efficacy results accelerated that timeline (less people need to vaccinate before reaching herd immunity). Fingers crossed that he is right. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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24 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

If immunity is only lasting around 120-180(last I read weeks ago). How long will a vaccine work?  Booster 3 times a year?

Based on everything I've seen, nobody knows how long immunity will last and it's impossible to accurately project. The only way we find out for certain is when somebody who received the vaccine tests negative for having antibodies. So far, this hasn't happened. *knock on wood* If this isn't a case of "no news, good news", then I don't know what is.  

And I also assume each vaccine (moderna, pfizer, etc.) will last different amounts of time. 

 

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2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I hope they’re ok 

Honestly it's not looking good for my grandma, but she's in her late 90's and her quality of life has been suboptimal for the last few years, so when her time comes, it may be a blessing. I'm more concerned about my aunt, who has otherwise been in good health, but spent the last two days visiting my grandma in the hospital, feeding her, handling her dentures, and f*cking singing songs with her, basically everything you would NOT want to do around someone who has Covid, she did. 

 

In my lifetime, I've lost four relatives/family members in the last week of December. I have a feeling my grandma will be #5. This is why I don't look forward to the holidays anymore. 

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1 hour ago, TheWatShot said:

Honestly it's not looking good for my grandma, but she's in her late 90's and her quality of life has been suboptimal for the last few years, so when her time comes, it may be a blessing. I'm more concerned about my aunt, who has otherwise been in good health, but spent the last two days visiting my grandma in the hospital, feeding her, handling her dentures, and f*cking singing songs with her, basically everything you would NOT want to do around someone who has Covid, she did. 

 

In my lifetime, I've lost four relatives/family members in the last week of December. I have a feeling my grandma will be #5. This is why I don't look forward to the holidays anymore. 

That is hard. I hope things work out better for your Grans and aunt. 

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1 hour ago, TheWatShot said:

Honestly it's not looking good for my grandma, but she's in her late 90's and her quality of life has been suboptimal for the last few years, so when her time comes, it may be a blessing. I'm more concerned about my aunt, who has otherwise been in good health, but spent the last two days visiting my grandma in the hospital, feeding her, handling her dentures, and f*cking singing songs with her, basically everything you would NOT want to do around someone who has Covid, she did. 

 

In my lifetime, I've lost four relatives/family members in the last week of December. I have a feeling my grandma will be #5. This is why I don't look forward to the holidays anymore. 

Man, that is tough. Keep plugging along. Easier said than done, but sometimes that's all you can do.

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9 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

Honestly it's not looking good for my grandma, but she's in her late 90's and her quality of life has been suboptimal for the last few years, so when her time comes, it may be a blessing. I'm more concerned about my aunt, who has otherwise been in good health, but spent the last two days visiting my grandma in the hospital, feeding her, handling her dentures, and f*cking singing songs with her, basically everything you would NOT want to do around someone who has Covid, she did. 

 

In my lifetime, I've lost four relatives/family members in the last week of December. I have a feeling my grandma will be #5. This is why I don't look forward to the holidays anymore. 

Lifting you and your family up in prayer.

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