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Coronavirus

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9 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

For reference, seeing 76 in New York now.

8,115 confirmed cases and 60 deaths just in NYC as of this morning. We have almost 2,500 cases here in Brooklyn.

Was following a Twitter thread of a friend of a friend, who is a young-ish, healthy male. Late 30s, ran two marathons, non-smoker. He was tweeting from his hospital bed daily saying stuff like, "Guys, this is no joke. Totally kicking my ass." Then nothing for a couple of days. Yesterday, someone posted that his family said he had been intubated and put on a ventilator. Was really sobering.

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Re: the West Virginia outlier. Just horrible incompetence all around.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

I’m hoping not, but I fear this thing is an iceberg. The cases we know about are above the water; all the cases who can’t get tested, don’t decide to get tested or are showing no symptoms are below the water. Stay home folks. 

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Absolutely staggering and sobering numbers being reported out of New Your today.  Not just talking about deaths either.  Over 12,000 new positive tests being reported, bringing the total number in the state to over 22,000.  If New York were it's own country, they would have the 5th mot cases in the world.  More than Iran has reported, and we've all heard the horror stories about what is going on there.  

Edited by 5fouls
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Maybe be good for a chuckle.

https://worldnewsdailyreport.com/belgium-health-minister-puts-ban-on-non-essential-sexual-activities-of-persons-3-or-greater-in-indoor-areas/

Dubois county has there first case.  And they shut everything down.  But will let the masses pile into walmart everyday from the 3-5 surrounding counties. SMH.

Edited by mrflynn03

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4 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Absolutely staggering and sobering numbers being reported out of New Your today.  Not just talking about deaths either.  Over 12,000 new positive tests being reported, bringing the total number in the state to over 22,000.  If New York were it's own country, they would have the 5th mot cases in the world.  More than Iran has reported, and we've all heard the horror stories about what is going on there.  

I obviously was looking at bad data,  New York's number of cases has been adjusted down to under 16,000.  Must have been some double counting going on,  

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47 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I obviously was looking at bad data,  New York's number of cases has been adjusted down to under 16,000.  Must have been some double counting going on,  

15,793 confirmed on the Johns Hopkins site. 117 dead vs 76 when I marked it yesterday.

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1 hour ago, NotIThatLives said:

Excellent article and research.  I've been sharing and talking about this a lot.  

Why was the article taken down by Medium?  

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No explanation. There are several links where you can still read it and I recommend it.  May not be perfect but there are a lot of facts and statistics to combat the hysteria. 

Without question, this should be taken seriously, but some of the doomsday scenarios are just beyond reality.

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16 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

This link still works.  There's also a good link at Zero Hedge from what I'm told.

The archive I found didn't have the graphics but better than nothing.  Alot of censorship on the interwebs if it doesn't fit the narrative.

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Perhaps the Zero Hedge version is more complete.  I'll try to find it and post if it is as the graphs and charts added a lot.  I saw nothing in the original worthy of censorship. 

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The zero hedge version IS more complete, along with a counterpoint tweet (which calls it a terrible article without refuting the numbers and statistics).  Anyway, here it is again...point and counterpoint...

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

For those of you with a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, they don't think too much of taking down this article either...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/controlling-the-virus-narrative-11584899715

 

Edited by FKIM01

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I'm officially obsessed with the subject and started tracking active cases globally on a spreadsheet, checking every few hours.  Tonight, between 5:43 p.m. and 9:43 p.m., active cases actually dropped slightly.  Probably just a reporting delay or glitch, but I'm going to watch the numbers closely since business has pretty much ground to a halt anyway.

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36 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

I'm officially obsessed with the subject and started tracking active cases globally on a spreadsheet, checking every few hours.  Tonight, between 5:43 p.m. and 9:43 p.m., active cases actually dropped slightly.  Probably just a reporting delay or glitch, but I'm going to watch the numbers closely since business has pretty much ground to a halt anyway.

I am no expert but also not an uninformed idiot when it comes to this stuff. Here is whe I am,  the data sucks.  The only reliable metric is fatalities, which so far in the US after a month since the 1st positive, but IMHO this has been here since mid December, the graph is relatively flat.  Positive cases will grow exponentially, we are already seeing that. But the mortality rate, I think, will be less than 1% when this is over.  

Social distancing policy is going to fail.  Why?  Because people are dumbasses. Just look at all these assholes that are panicking but willing to pile up in supermarkets asshole to elbow.  

Edited by mrflynn03

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38 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

I am no expert but also not an uninformed idiot when it comes to this stuff. Here is whe I am,  the data sucks.  The only reliable metric is fatalities, which so far in the US after a month since the 1st positive, but IMHO this has been here since mid December, the graph is relatively flat.  Positive cases will grow exponentially, we are already seeing that. But the mortality rate, I think, will be less than 1% when this is over.  

Social distancing policy is going to fail.  Why?  Because people are dumbasses. Just look at all these assholes that are panicking but willing to pile up in supermarkets asshole to elbow.  

I'm charting various statistics.  This far, the U.S. death rate is 1.3%.  Italy is 9.26%...oy vey.  Here, 2% of cases are serious or critical.  In Italy, 6%.

New York is going to be key...if we can get it under control there, I think that bodes well for the rest of the country.

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7 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

 

Social distancing policy is going to fail.  Why?  Because people are dumbasses. Just look at all these assholes that are panicking but willing to pile up in supermarkets asshole to elbow.  

Completely agree...

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8 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

The zero hedge version IS more complete, along with a counterpoint tweet (which calls it a terrible article without refuting the numbers and statistics).  Anyway, here it is again...point and counterpoint...

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

For those of you with a subscription to the Wall Street Journal, they don't think too much of taking down this article either...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/controlling-the-virus-narrative-11584899715

 

I read the article Saturday night then went to refresh the page Sunday morning and it was gone. In the comments, there was an epidemiologist who disagreed with the article . There was a long twitter thread by this person, but most of this person's complaints were ad hominem attacks towards the author. I have read other professionals agree with it. 

I liked the article and I thought he made some good points. I would really like to see data on cases per capita. The John's Hopkins map shows NYC as having 10,665 active cases. NYC's population is ~8.6 million. I would also like to have demographic data (age, Yes/No with pre-existing conditions, etc.) of every case. I keep seeing anecdotal stories, but no hard data. 

What I'm most excited about is the chloroquine trials that are starting in NYC tomorrow. I think is a real game changer and we should have some good data by the weekend. Here's an article where a Florida man was cured within a couple of days. https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/florida-man-with-coronavirus-says-drug-touted-by-trump-saved-his-life/

 

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Michigan governor just issued a "stay at home" order.  Begins at midnight tonight.

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16 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I obviously was looking at bad data,  New York's number of cases has been adjusted down to under 16,000.  Must have been some double counting going on,  

Or you were just a day in the future. I almost said that last night, but didn't want to be morbid. NY now has 20,850 cases - over 5,000 new cases since last night. Most of them here in NYC obviously.

Have been worried about this as well:

Quote

NYC jails, including Rikers Island, now have 29 detainees who have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Correctional Health Services, an entity of the city hospital system that provides medical treatment to inmates. 

The CHS confirmed the updated numbers late Sunday, which were up by eight since Saturday morning. About 12 Department of Correction and five CHS employees have also tested positive. 

 

Edited by Lostin76
Adding text

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New York now has over half of US cases. I don't have to tell the government that containing it there is critical to beating it nationally.  Now 157 deaths in New York.  Nationally, the death rate sits at 1.19%.

It's still comforting to see that 98% of US cases are considered mild.

Edited by FKIM01
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