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Conference Standings/Big Ten Tourney Thread


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With two games left in the conference season for every team, figured I’d start this thread to discuss predictions for the final standings and our potential seed for the BTT.

Here’s a link to the Big Ten standings: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/group/7

Here’s a link to the BTT bracket: 2020-big-ten-tournament-bracket.jpg

And here’s a link to the tiebreak procedures for the BTT: https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx

As it stands, we would currently be the 11th seed, playing #14 Nebraska in the first game of the BTT.  Maryland, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, PSU, and Iowa have all locked up better record than IU.  That puts us in the group of OSU, Michigan, Rutgers, Purdue, and Minnesota that is jockeying for seeds 7-12.  We’re likely to lose most tiebreakers here, as our record against those 5 schools is 2-5 (3-5 if we beat Minnesota again).  OSU is 5-3 against that group, Michigan is 5-3, Rutgers is 3-3 with a game against Purdue left, Purdue is 3-4 with a game against Rutgers left, and Minnesota is 3-3 with a game against IU left.  Even if we win out, OSU and Michigan appear to be almost locks to round out the top 8.  So we seem to be competing for the 9-11 seed.  Obviously getting the 9 or 10 seed is huge, as we would much rather be playing the 7 or 8 seed than Nebraska/Northwestern in our first game if we still need another win for the resume.  How do you see it playing out?

 

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9 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

With two games left in the conference season for every team, figured I’d start this thread to discuss predictions for the final standings and our potential seed for the BTT.

Here’s a link to the Big Ten standings: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings/_/group/7

Here’s a link to the BTT bracket: 2020-big-ten-tournament-bracket.jpg

And here’s a link to the tiebreak procedures for the BTT: https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx

As it stands, we would currently be the 11th seed, playing #14 Nebraska in the first game of the BTT.  Maryland, MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, PSU, and Iowa have all locked up better record than IU.  That puts us in the group of OSU, Michigan, Rutgers, Purdue, and Minnesota that is jockeying for seeds 7-12.  We’re likely to lose most tiebreakers here, as our record against those 5 schools is 2-5 (3-5 if we beat Minnesota again).  OSU is 5-3 against that group, Michigan is 5-3, Rutgers is 3-3 with a game against Purdue left, Purdue is 3-4 with a game against Rutgers left, and Minnesota is 3-3 with a game against IU left.  Even if we win out, OSU and Michigan appear to be almost locks to round out the top 8.  So we seem to be competing for the 9-11 seed.  Obviously getting the 9 or 10 seed is huge, as we would much rather be playing the 7 or 8 seed than Nebraska/Northwestern in our first game if we still need another win for the resume.  How do you see it playing out?

 

Glad you made this post as it’s something I’ve seen touched on in other threads.

My question is this: are we sure that we would rather be the 9 or 10 and play a tougher team instead of playing Nebraska or Northwestern and getting an easier win?  Isn’t there something to be said of just adding another win to our resume, regardless of who it’s against? It’s not as if we lack good wins, we just lack enough quantity. 

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6 minutes ago, madmax said:

Glad you made this post as it’s something I’ve seen touched on in other threads.

My question is this: are we sure that we would rather be the 9 or 10 and play a tougher team instead of playing Nebraska or Northwestern and getting an easier win?  Isn’t there something to be said of just adding another win to our resume, regardless of who it’s against? It’s not as if we lack good wins, we just lack enough quantity. 

Start time and path. I'll take 10 seed please in both conference and NCAA tourney all day long. Conference tourney wise we would be looking at Rutgers, Ohio St, Michigan in round 1. 

Edited by Seeking6
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3 minutes ago, madmax said:

Glad you made this post as it’s something I’ve seen touched on in other threads.

My question is this: are we sure that we would rather be the 9 or 10 and play a tougher team instead of playing Nebraska or Northwestern and getting an easier win?  Isn’t there something to be said of just adding another win to our resume, regardless of who it’s against? It’s not as if we lack good wins, we just lack enough quantity. 

With the way this team has played away from Assembly Hall, I view any BTT game as pretty much a complete toss-up.  Depending on which version of the team shows up, we’re just as likely to beat OSU or Rutgers as we are to lose to Nebraska or Northwestern.  So personally, I would prefer just needing to win one game to lock up a tourney spot, as opposed to potentially two games depending on how the selection committee values a win over Nebraska/Northwestern (assuming we haven’t already locked it up by winning both of the games against Minnesota and Wisconsin).  But I see both sides of the argument.

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3 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Start time and path. I'll take 10 seed please in both conference and NCAA tourney all day long. Conference tourney wise we would be looking at Rutgers, Ohio St, Michigan in round 1. 

Playing the first game against OSU or Rutgers would be the best case scenario I think.  Maybe it’s just because we played so poorly against them in Ann Arbor, but I wouldn’t want to go up against Michigan... Feels like that’s a bad match up for us.

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2 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Playing the first game against OSU or Rutgers would be the best case scenario I think.  Maybe it’s just because we played so poorly against them in Ann Arbor, but I wouldn’t want to go up against Michigan... Feels like that’s a bad match up for us.

I threw Michigan in just for revenge part but more I think about it I'm with you...I'd rather get Rutgers followed by Ohio St. 

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18 minutes ago, madmax said:

Glad you made this post as it’s something I’ve seen touched on in other threads.

My question is this: are we sure that we would rather be the 9 or 10 and play a tougher team instead of playing Nebraska or Northwestern and getting an easier win?  Isn’t there something to be said of just adding another win to our resume, regardless of who it’s against? It’s not as if we lack good wins, we just lack enough quantity. 

Well if we get into the 9th or 10th spot that means we won our last two games so I don't see a difference.  If we just win one game and finish 11th and then win against Neb or NW then that would still be two more wins.  I would think it would be better to win the last two games since that would give us to more quality wins.  If we lose to the 1st game as a 9 seed that loss won't be considered a bad loss.

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7 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Playing the first game against OSU or Rutgers would be the best case scenario I think.  Maybe it’s just because we played so poorly against them in Ann Arbor, but I wouldn’t want to go up against Michigan... Feels like that’s a bad match up for us.

Not me...OSU is playing better ball than Michigan. Michigan, though a tough matchup for us, seems to be struggling again. OSU is 8-2 of their last 10 with the losses coming at Iowa and Wisconsin.

I'll take my chances with the Wolverines...

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16 minutes ago, cybergates said:

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

For those who want to play with how the remaining games play out and what it does to the bracket.

Can also go back and change real results, the what if we beat Turdue and Maryland at home makes us the 5 seed, sigh.

Messing around with this, it appears that the only way IU gets the 10 seed by finishing 9-11 is if Purdue loses to both Iowa and Rutgers.  We don’t win a tiebreaker with either Purdue or Rutgers at 9-11, so Purdue would have to finish 8-12.

Edited by FW_Hoosier
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1 hour ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Playing the first game against OSU or Rutgers would be the best case scenario I think.  Maybe it’s just because we played so poorly against them in Ann Arbor, but I wouldn’t want to go up against Michigan... Feels like that’s a bad match up for us.

Well we have lost to Purdue and Michigan a combined 13 times in a row...so I’d rather not see those two..

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I'd just like to see us going into the BTT playing for seeding in the NCAAT instead of playing for a bid. Getting these next 2 Ws is going to be big in a number of different ways. As for concerns about how we play on the road, (1) this is as close to a home game as we can get with a neutral site game, (2) we've won both of our neutral site games this year, and (3) the rest of the conference hasn't exactly set the road on fire, either. 

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6 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

So now that Purdue has beaten Iowa, the only way IU avoids playing on the first day of the BTT is if they win out.  Here’s hoping...

Unless I'm missing something...We need to win out and have help to avoid the first day.   If Rutgers wins at Purdue we would be the 10 seed(PU is #11).  Or should Michigan lose at home to Nebraska and on the road to Maryland... IU would be #10 and UM #11.  

I'd say our odds of playing the 1st day are 99.9%.   These next 3 games are huge.   Win the next 2 and we should be safely in the dance no matter what happens in the BTT.  But should we lose a home game and then get upset on day 1 of the BTT... we will be NIT bound.  

Go Hoosiers!!!

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3 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

So unless I'm looking at things wrong...last night went as poorly as it could in order for IU to avoid Wednesday next week, right?

Yep...I believe the only way we avoid playing on the 1st day of the BTT is for us to win both of our games, and have Rutgers go into Mackey and win on Saturday...

Can be done but long odds...

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Makes the next two even more important.  If we only get one of these home games, and then somehow lose to Northwestern or Nebraska in the BTT, we won't get in.  We could have snuck in going 1-2 over that period if the second loss was to someone like Michigan on Thursday.  But, it can't be against one of the bottom 2 in the league.  

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