Conference Standings/Big Ten Tourney Thread

[Hoosierinbham]

6 minutes ago, Billingsley99 said:

I would agree and it makes perfect sense but when that team with 3 lees wins is 2-0 against you I am afraid it could come into play

Could be for sure. Impossible to know what the inconsistent committee is thinking. I could see a debate if they had 1 less win than us.  But 3 less wins for a total of 17?  No way.  A tiebreaker should do what it says; break a tie of equal records. It should not give a team the benefit of 3 more wins they didn't earn.

[BGleas]

I sound like a broken record, but if IU wins out in the regular season then we're not even being compared to Purdue. At 17 wins, Purdue is being compared to other bubble teams. If IU takes care of business the way they should, we're being compared to the other 7-10 seeds for where we should land. 

 

[HoosierDom]

If we win 2 more games, regardless of which ones they are, we are no where near the bubble. If we only win one we are in okay shape, but if other teams finish strong it could turn on us. 

[AxnJxn]

Just now, HoosierDom said:

If we win 2 more games, regardless of which ones they are, we are no where near the bubble. If we only win one we are in okay shape, but if other teams finish strong it could turn on us. 

Yep. There's no way a 20 win team, at .500 in this conference, and with the quality wins we have both in and out of conference, is not going to get a bid. There are also multiple opportunities to match us up with another team - Houston, Kentucky, Dayton - that could be a ratings bump. You're kidding yourself if you don't think the committee takes that into consideration, especially when you see all of the empty seats at tournament games these days.

Also, not to be a homer, but it's better for college basketball overall if we're involved, if only for the name recognition factor.

[BGleas]

6 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

If we win 2 more games, regardless of which ones they are, we are no where near the bubble. If we only win one we are in okay shape, but if other teams finish strong it could turn on us. 

This kind of hits to my point. Last year at this time IU had to win games AND scoreboard watch to hope other teams lost. That is not the case this year. IU needs to win and that's it. Just win and we're in. It doesn't matter what other schools do, as long as IU handles their business at home. 

Yes, if we lose one of these last two home games then we should probably be nervous. But this schedule actually sets up nicely for IU with two home games to close the year, and while I don't love being the 11 seed in the BTT as it's a risk to add a bad loss, it's also a huge opportunity to add another power 5 level win. 

This gets to the point of where we're at as a program, this schedule is set up for IU to take of business at home, then while a win over NW/Neb doesn't really do much in terms of a quality win, it's still a win against a Big Ten team and if IU does what they should, it's a win that would get us to 21 wins. A 21 win IU team is probably looking at a 7-9 seed and is nowhere even in the bubble talk. 

Now the problem comes in if we split these home games and then lose to NW/Neb, but if that happens then we have much bigger problems. 

[FW_Hoosier]

Again, this IU resume vs. Purdue resume debate all comes back to the strength of the non-conference schedule.  Purdue lost to #55 Texas and beat #48 UVA at home, lost to #26 Marquette on the road, lost to #11 FSU and #20 Butler at neutral sites, and beat #60 VCU at a neutral site.  They lost three games against top 50 teams away from home during the non-conference schedule... While IU didn’t play a single game against a top 50 team away from home (and only played two games against top 50 teams in total).  That right there is precisely the difference between 17 and 20 wins.

I’ve been saying this since before the season started, and no one has wanted to listen.  Non-conference strength of schedule MATTERS on Selection Sunday.  It was the only thing that kept IU on the bubble last year, and unfortunately it may be the thing that knocks IU off the bubble this year if they can’t win down the stretch.

On the other hand, we’d definitely be in Purdue’s position or worse right now if we had a tougher non-conference schedule, so it probably was the right decision overall.

[HoosierDom]

2 minutes ago, BGleas said:

This kind of hits to my point. Last year at this time IU had to wins game AND scoreboard watch to hope other teams lost. That is not the case this year. IU needs to win and that's it. Just win and we're in. It doesn't matter what other schools do, as long as IU handles their business at home. 

Yes, if we lose one of these last two home games then we should probably be nervous. But this schedule actually sets up nicely for IU with two home games to close the year, and while I don't love being the 11 seed in the BTT as it's a risk to add a bad loss, it's also a huge opportunity to add another power 5 level win. 

This gets to the point of where we're at as a program, this schedule is set up for IU to take of business at home, then while a win over NW/Neb doesn't really do much in terms of a quality win, it's still a win against a Big Ten team and if IU does what they should, it's a win that would get us to 21 wins. A 21 win IU team is probably looking at a 7-9 seed and is nowhere even in the bubble talk. 

Now the problem comes in if we split these home games and then lose to NW/Neb, but if that happens then we have much bigger problems. 

We're saying the same thing. My only point is that I'm going to go ahead and scoreboard watch now in case we don't get the wins we could.

[HoosierDom]

1 minute ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Again, this IU resume vs. Purdue resume debate all comes back to the strength of the non-conference schedule.  Purdue lost to #55 Texas and beat #48 UVA at home, lost to #26 Marquette on the road, lost to #11 FSU and #20 Butler at neutral sites, and beat #60 VCU at a neutral site.  They lost three games against top 50 teams away from home during the non-conference schedule... While IU didn’t play a single game against a top 50 team away from home (and only played two games against top 50 teams in total).  That right there is precisely the difference between 17 and 20 wins.

I’ve been saying this since before the season started, and no one has wanted to listen.  Non-conference strength of schedule MATTERS on Selection Sunday.  It was the only thing that kept IU on the bubble last year, and unfortunately it may be the thing that knocks IU off the bubble this year if they can’t win down the stretch.

On the other hand, we’d definitely be in Purdue’s position or worse right now if we had a tougher non-conference schedule, so it probably was the right decision overall.

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. Non conference strength of schedule was the only thing that kept us out of the tournament last year. Had we replaced some of our tough losses with cupcakes, we would have made it. This year we did that. Purdue did what we did last year - it may well cost them. 

[BGleas]

2 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Again, this IU resume vs. Purdue resume debate all comes back to the strength of the non-conference schedule.  Purdue lost to #55 Texas and beat #48 UVA at home, lost to #26 Marquette on the road, lost to #11 FSU and #20 Butler at neutral sites, and beat #60 VCU at a neutral site.  They lost three games against top 50 teams away from home during the non-conference schedule... While IU didn’t play a single game against a top 50 team away from home (and only played two games against top 50 teams in total).  That right there is precisely the difference between 17 and 20 wins.

I’ve been saying this since before the season started, and no one has wanted to listen.  Non-conference strength of schedule MATTERS on Selection Sunday.  It was the only thing that kept IU on the bubble last year, and unfortunately it may be the thing that knocks IU off the bubble this year if they can’t win down the stretch.

On the other hand, we’d definitely be in Purdue’s position or worse right now if we had a tougher non-conference schedule, so it probably was the right decision overall.

The Purdue vs. IU debate is irrelevant anyways. If we get to 20 wins we're not even in the bubble discussion. I don't even know how the Purdue vs. IU debate, in terms of getting into the tournament even came from? Nothing has changed for IU. Win and we're in. Purdue is the team that has to scoreboard watch. 

Also, last year we were not left our because of the non-con schedule. IU was left out because IU didn't win enough games. Win the game at Arkansas and the BTT game against OSU and IU would have been dancing. It was about the # of wins, not the rating of the schedule. 

[Seeking6]

52 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I sound like a broken record, but if IU wins out in the regular season then we're not even being compared to Purdue. At 17 wins, Purdue is being compared to other bubble teams. If IU takes care of business the way they should, we're being compared to the other 7-10 seeds for where we should land. 

 

Yep. I'm not even sweating whether we're in. Only I see that we aren't in is we if we lose next 3.

[IU Scott]

41 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Again, this IU resume vs. Purdue resume debate all comes back to the strength of the non-conference schedule.  Purdue lost to #55 Texas and beat #48 UVA at home, lost to #26 Marquette on the road, lost to #11 FSU and #20 Butler at neutral sites, and beat #60 VCU at a neutral site.  They lost three games against top 50 teams away from home during the non-conference schedule... While IU didn’t play a single game against a top 50 team away from home (and only played two games against top 50 teams in total).  That right there is precisely the difference between 17 and 20 wins.

I’ve been saying this since before the season started, and no one has wanted to listen.  Non-conference strength of schedule MATTERS on Selection Sunday.  It was the only thing that kept IU on the bubble last year, and unfortunately it may be the thing that knocks IU off the bubble this year if they can’t win down the stretch.

On the other hand, we’d definitely be in Purdue’s position or worse right now if we had a tougher non-conference schedule, so it probably was the right decision overall.

Might be right but I have seen that out  of conference schedule is like #73 so it is not as bad as some wants  to think.

[HoosierKix]

58 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Again, this IU resume vs. Purdue resume debate all comes back to the strength of the non-conference schedule.  Purdue lost to #55 Texas and beat #48 UVA at home, lost to #26 Marquette on the road, lost to #11 FSU and #20 Butler at neutral sites, and beat #60 VCU at a neutral site.  They lost three games against top 50 teams away from home during the non-conference schedule... While IU didn’t play a single game against a top 50 team away from home (and only played two games against top 50 teams in total).  That right there is precisely the difference between 17 and 20 wins.

I’ve been saying this since before the season started, and no one has wanted to listen.  Non-conference strength of schedule MATTERS on Selection Sunday.  It was the only thing that kept IU on the bubble last year, and unfortunately it may be the thing that knocks IU off the bubble this year if they can’t win down the stretch.

On the other hand, we’d definitely be in Purdue’s position or worse right now if we had a tougher non-conference schedule, so it probably was the right decision overall.

According to the NCAA sheets that the committee looks at that you can find online. Our Non-Conference SOS is actually rated higher than Purdue. I was Delphi Bracketology talking about it on Twitter which is one of the highest rated bracketology on the matrix.

[Reacher]

2 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

If we have to play on the first day I wouldn’t mind this scenario. All the teams I’d want to avoid are at the top of the bracket.

Exactly. if that is how the seeding ends up, I think we win our first 3 in the BTT

[IU Scott]

http://bracketmatrix.com/

found this while doing some research and this is pretty much just averaging out everyone's projections.  It has IU's average at a 9.74 so mainly a 10 seed and this was going of 136 projections.  I think the highest we had was a  seed and the lowest was a 12 seed.

[BGleas]

Not trying to psychoanalyze the group, but I think some of the trepidation/concern about the tournament is mostly about us as a fan base just not trusting this group. Whether it's because of the last 20 years or just the last 3-4, I think as fans we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

I know I am. This IU team should win the next 3 games. I mean really, with all that is on the line and how we've played the last 2-3 weeks, IU should beat Minnesota and Wisconsin at home, then should beat either Nebraska or Northwestern in the Wed game of the BTT. IU should be looking at 21-11 heading into their second BTT game, which would be a winnable game vs. Iowa, followed by Illinois, if I have the bracket correct. 

There's no reason that shouldn't happen. But I think most of us, myself included, have very little faith that it will happen.  

That scenario would create so much momentum for the program, for Archie, for the excitement heading into next season. I just don't know that I trust this group to pull that off. 

[FWIUFan]

50 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Not trying to psychoanalyze the group, but I think some of the trepidation/concern about the tournament is mostly about us as a fan base just not trusting this group. Whether it's because of the last 20 years or just the last 3-4, I think as fans we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

I know I am. This IU team should win the next 3 games. I mean really, with all that is on the line and how we've played the last 2-3 weeks, IU should beat Minnesota and Wisconsin at home, then should beat either Nebraska or Northwestern in the Wed game of the BTT. IU should be looking at 21-11 heading into their second BTT game, which would be a winnable game vs. Illinois if I have the bracket correct. 

There's no reason that shouldn't happen. But I think most of us, myself included, have very little faith that it will happen.  

That scenario would create so much momentum for the program, for Archie, for the excitement heading into next season. I just don't know that I trust this group to pull that off. 

You stated our current dilemma well.  This group has had more ups and downs than the Dow Jones.   I keep saying it' because of our youth But what on earth should give this fanbase solace?  

Last year they folded like a cheap suit knowing everything was on the line for the NCAAT against OSU.  This year they choked in the final minutes to Arkansas and Maryland.  The icing on the cake for me was the absolutely abysmal performance against PU on the most epic day in IUBB history when RMK finally returned.  I will go to my grave still trying to remove the putrid taste in my mouth that game emblazoned on my tongue!

Continuing with the stock market metaphor, I'm still not ready to short their stock yet.  They really seem to have turned a corner since the UM game.  They finally seem to be demonstrating the  tenacity and IQ we have all been clamoring for since CAM arrived.  We are at home.  All the stars are aligning such that I now believe it is at least possible for this team to win their last 2 games and even advance within the BTT.   Call me a sucker and perhaps they will prove me wrong yet again but I'm finally seeing us in the NCAAT again.

God certainly will not keep me in this IUBB purgatory any longer!  Go IU! Crush Minn and Wiscy!

[cybergates]

5 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

If we have to play on the first day I wouldn’t mind this scenario. All the teams I’d want to avoid are at the top of the bracket.

I like that bracket too. 3 of the more winnable games for us to get to the semis.

[Reacher]

3 hours ago, cybergates said:

I like that bracket too. 3 of the more winnable games for us to get to the semis.

And there is something to be said for a getting a game in and shaking the rust off while others are sitting around waiting. Ideally, we are ready to go in the second game while the opponent is a bit rusty.

[Seeking6]

Curious if Ohio St loses tonight vs Illinois where they end up after their loss to Michigan St on Sunday. At 10-10...are they ahead of us?

[DWB]

40 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Curious if Ohio St loses tonight vs Illinois where they end up after their loss to Michigan St on Sunday. At 10-10...are they ahead of us?

Assuming we end up with the same conf and overall records, I think we may have an edge since we beat them by 12, and they beat us by 9. I thought there was something about the difference in score as one of the tie breakers. But then again you have the genius of the "Net" plus SOS. So...I'm not sure

[IU Scott]

Just now, DWB said:

Assuming we end up with the same conf and overall records, I think we may have an edge since we beat them by 12, and they beat us by 9. I thought there was something about the difference in score as one of the tie breakers. But then again you have the genius of the "Net" plus SOS. So...I'm not sure

We could have a 5 way tie at 10-10 with IU, Rutgers, Purdue, OSU and UM

[Seeking6]

18 minutes ago, DWB said:

Assuming we end up with the same conf and overall records, I think we may have an edge since we beat them by 12, and they beat us by 9. I thought there was something about the difference in score as one of the tie breakers. But then again you have the genius of the "Net" plus SOS. So...I'm not sure

Is tiebreaker determined by head to head collective records first? Purdue sweep and 1 time vs Michigan probably still makes us 11 right?

[Shooter]

22 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Is tiebreaker determined by head to head collective records first? Purdue sweep and 1 time vs Michigan probably still makes us 11 right?

We also only played Rutgers on the road and lost. So any way that multi-way tie at 10-10 ends up, it seems like we are likely to be the 11 seed unless we beat Wisconsin AND Purdue loses to Rutgers this weekend.

[Indy1987]

35 minutes ago, Shooter said:

We also only played Rutgers on the road and lost. So any way that multi-way tie at 10-10 ends up, it seems like we are likely to be the 11 seed unless we beat Wisconsin AND Purdue loses to Rutgers this weekend.

Yep we need Purdue to lose and we must beat Wisconsin.   That's are only way to not play a day one game.

Go Hoosiers!!!

[PritchardPutBack]

Here are the tiebreakers with BTT seeding for anyone unsure or confused. https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx

A simple way to look at all the ties, they all first start at head to head (whether it's just two teams tied or multiple teams tied where it would be the head to head record among the group). Important to note for ties between multiple teams is that it is based on winning percentage, so 1-0 = 2-0 and 3-1 > 2-1. Then if there is still a tie or still multiple teams tied it goes to record against the highest ranked team in the conference. Any remaining ties (or ties among teams tied for first) then go to the records against the 2nd best team, then 3rd, etc. until you run out of conference teams so you go to record against all division 1 opponents and then a coin flip.

Purdue losing to Rutgers is important for us in general, but before the OSU game tonight we at least still had a chance for the 8 seed. Now, we are basically a lock for the 10 or 11 because we don't have any wins against any possible ties in Michigan, Rutgers, or Purdue.