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Big Ten Tournament Cancelled


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2 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

I mentioned somewhere yesterday they should plan to move the tournament to Montana,Idaho, and Wyoming where there are no cases as of now and maybe let those people attend or not. 

And I said, if IU were to play, it is just under a three hour drive to Laramie from my house.  However, Denver tv reported this morning of confirmed cases in Wyoming.

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14 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

In 2009-10, between 40 and 80 million Americans contracted H1N1 swine flu. More than 300k hospitalized and more than 17,000 died. I don't recall any cancellations.

If the current mortality rate of 3.4% holds, if 40 million Americans contract this, 1.36 MILLION people will die.

And if the hospitals get overwhelmed with too many cases at once, you could see that number get closer to 5-6% like it is in Italy.

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1 minute ago, milehiiu said:

And I said, if IU were to play, it is just under a three hour drive to Laramie from my house.  However, Denver tv reported this morning of confirmed cases in Wyoming.

Yeah you did.  And would be a good deal for you.

But my dreams have been dashed. Stupid virus. 

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2 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

If the current mortality rate of 3.4% holds, if 40 million Americans contract this, 1.36 MILLION people will die.

And if the hospitals get overwhelmed with too many cases at once, you could see that number get closer to 5-6% like it is in Italy.

It won't.  That's way high.  Current estimates are in the range of 0.1% to 1%.

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1 minute ago, mrflynn03 said:

CDC reports 1215 confirmed cases since Jan 21st.  Numbers will rise but would be surprised if it hits 40-80 million cases. 

THere is a member of the medical community at the federal level (don't remember if CDC or other), that stated they are operating with the expectation of 20-70 Million Americans will be infected by this. 17.3 days on average from known contraction to death. 20% of call cases require hospitalization. as many as 14 days between contraction and symptoms, meaning you can infect MANY before you are even aware. 

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3 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

If the current mortality rate of 3.4% holds, if 40 million Americans contract this, 1.36 MILLION people will die.

And if the hospitals get overwhelmed with too many cases at once, you could see that number get closer to 5-6% like it is in Italy.

Heard this morning that hospitals in Italy ARE overwhelmed. They have set up triage all over the country.  And if you are over 60 years of age, or have an underlying issue... those people are told to go home.... they will not treat them !

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1 minute ago, mrflynn03 said:

CDC reports 1215 confirmed cases since Jan 21st.  Numbers will rise but would be surprised if it hits 40-80 million cases. 

A big problem right now is that we are testing very few people for several reasons, chief among them that we somehow didn't have enough foresight to produce enough tests, people who want to be tested are being turned away, and others are avoiding getting tested because they can't afford to be diagnosed with the virus.

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1 minute ago, CincyHoosier said:

It won't.  That's way high.  Current estimates are in the range of 0.1% to 1%.

That is wrong. It depends on reaction, the nation, etc. The range is ~.6% in South Korea and as much as 6.5% in Italy. the AVERAGE of all of those by the W.H.O. is 3.4%. That also spans age groups. CDC released information broken down by age. 0-40: 0.2% mortality, 80+: 14.3% mortality.

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2 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Heard this morning that hospitals in Italy ARE overwhelmed. They have set up triage all over the country.  And if you are over 60 years of age, or have an underlying issue... those people are told to go home.... they will not treat them !

THAT's the problem exactly. There are only something like ~65,000 respirators and ~1M hospital beds avaialble in the US. It won't take much for the hospitals to be overwhelmed, increasing the mortality rate from things outside of COVID19. 

Not trying to fear-monger, but brushing it off is the absolute WRONG response. 

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Honestly, the biggest concern on a societal level is the capacity of hospitals and the healthcare industry to handle it, so slowing down the spread is important not only to keep people from getting the virus, but to keep concurrent cases at a manageable number.

Cancelling all these big events does help to slow the spread, but it also helps to serve as a "wake up" to a lot of people.

Seeing things cancelled that NEVER get cancelled will convince people to take this seriously.

Even if you're under 60 with no underlying health conditions, if you're unlucky enough to be in the 20% that require hospitalization, and every hospital is at 200% capacity like they are in Italy, things could get very bad very fast.

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3 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

Honestly, the biggest concern on a societal level is the capacity of hospitals and the healthcare industry to handle it, so slowing down the spread is important not only to keep people from getting the virus, but to keep concurrent cases at a manageable number.

Cancelling all these big events does help to slow the spread, but it also helps to serve as a "wake up" to a lot of people.

Seeing things cancelled that NEVER get cancelled will convince people to take this seriously.

Even if you're under 60 with no underlying health conditions, if you're unlucky enough to be in the 20% that require hospitalization, and every hospital is at 200% capacity like they are in Italy, things could get very bad very fast.

This!

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35 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

In 2009-10, between 40 and 80 million Americans contracted H1N1 swine flu. More than 300k hospitalized and more than 17,000 died. I don't recall any cancellations.

We haven't been testing people. Who knows how many are actually sick with this.  Hopefully since 17,000 died in '09-10 we learned something from that experience and this is the cause for the cancellations now.  

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51 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

In 2009-10, between 40 and 80 million Americans contracted H1N1 swine flu. More than 300k hospitalized and more than 17,000 died. I don't recall any cancellations.

We are talking about potentially 30m Americans hospitalized from this and up to 150m contracting it. 

It is incredibly important that we handle this the right way; we don't have the resources as a country to handle an additional 30m people in the hospital in a short amount of time. 

Everyone please listen to experts, and no, I do not mean your friends on Fox News. 

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This is a good, succinct article about the mortality rates.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-deaths-from-coronavirus-are-so-high-in-italy/

In short, age obviously has a lot to do with it, but if the outbreak overwhelms a region and stretches hospitals beyond capacity, the death rate that would have been at or below 1% begins to go up quickly.

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5 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

We are talking about potentially 30m Americans hospitalized from this and up to 150m contracting it. 

It is incredibly important that we handle this the right way; we don't have the resources as a country to handle an additional 30m people in the hospital in a short amount of time. 

Everyone please listen to experts, and no, I do not mean your friends on Fox News. 

Headed to Vegas next weekend! Cheap flights and hotels! 

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