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Power 5 Breakaway?


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Story touches on how the pandemic may accelerate the split of the Power 5 leagues from the NCAA.  A lot of the story revolves around football, but March Madness is discussed as well, so putting it in the basketball forum.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-we-may-be-reaching-a-tipping-point-for-the-power-five-to-break-away-from-the-fbs/

 

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4 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Story touches on how the pandemic may accelerate the split of the Power 5 leagues from the NCAA.  A lot of the story revolves around football, but March Madness is discussed as well, so putting it in the basketball forum.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-we-may-be-reaching-a-tipping-point-for-the-power-five-to-break-away-from-the-fbs/

 

Nothing new. Been the underbelly for decades. 5 conferences handle roughly what? 90% of revenues. Going to happen eventually. For the small school folks yes...the upset special might be missed once every 20 years but overall? If the NCAA isn't going to handle their business.....let some other folks who are obviously smarter handle it.

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47 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Nothing new. Been the underbelly for decades. 5 conferences handle roughly what? 90% of revenues. Going to happen eventually. For the small school folks yes...the upset special might be missed once every 20 years but overall? If the NCAA isn't going to handle their business.....let some other folks who are obviously smarter handle it.

I would bet if this happens then the popularity of the tournament will fall dramatically

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22 minutes ago, Sark said:

People have been predicting the end of the NCAA for years, and it’s never come to pass. There may be reform but, with football driving the revenues, that reform could make IU more a victim than a beneficiary if the NCAA is dismantled in favor of a new apparatus.

Ummmm, IU IS in the B1G....

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3 minutes ago, Sark said:

Yes, but things can and do change. Conference realignment aside, the BT distributes revenues on a relatively equal basis, even though bell cows OSU, UM, PSU, UNL and UW generate a disproportionate share of it on the gridiron. P5 reform isn’t the only thing that could end up on the table here. Texas has already flexed their muscles in a play to be treated differently, based on their revenue strength, from other B12 members, and Gene Smith at OSU has rumbled about some of those same issues. IU is more a revenue “have not” than a “have” in the B10, and reform at the national level could easily spur it closer to home.

Where is Ohio State going to go?  And say they kick Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers out of the BIG for not being "Big Time" enough.  Doesn't that eliminate some of the most major markets from their TV viewing footprint?  If OSU thought they could get a better deal elsewhere, they would have left already.

My interest in college sports without Indiana is zero.

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22 minutes ago, Sark said:

It’s not a question of “where are they going to go?”, it’s really “how much more are they going to make?” If national reform is at least in part about letting the P5 be free of subsidizing smaller schools, conference reform can easily be about the same thing. IU really takes more out of the B10 kitty than they put in, and the OSU’s and others are just the opposite. They subsidize us, to a degree, just like the P5 subsidize smaller schools. Reform closer to home, like in the B10, would make revenue distribution more equitable, based on revenue generation, and that wouldn’t be good for us at all. Supporting 24 sports would be in immediate jeopardy.

Disagree totally.  Most of the Big Ten money that is generated is based on TV.  Ohio State makes more on raw ticket sales because of football, but it is my understanding that they keep that.  What gets split out a bit is the payment for going to the NCAA tournament, bowl games, and TV contracts.  The latter of which is the lion share of the money.  So yes, Ohio State and Michigan could kick the Indiana, Illinois, and New York markets out of their league in order to not have to split their bowl money, but they would be cutting off their nose to spite their face at that point.

In the scenario I listed, they lose New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Indianapolis which is 4 of the top 25 TV markets in the country.  They could get some of that back I guess by making a super conference of certain schools, but that would leave a bunch of the country not watching and if they do a super conference they are still splitting revenue, but it is probably a smaller piece of revenue.

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I don’t think the gain for Ohio State will be nearly as much as one would believe. They sell out each game so their tickets revenue will not increase (unless the cost per ticket does which robs the fans). They already have TV contracts and play on National TV each game ( they could ask for more, but that is uncertain). Then you have the added cost in the over night travel to games outside your region. Plus you don’t have any easier games. It becomes harder to win a National Championship. Then take Indiana, yes they are 9th in the Big Ten but 25 overall. They are only 8 million from being in the top 20 and their growth has been faster than the Universities in front of them. I would not be surprised if they were higher in five years. The success of the football team is a huge factor. Do you really gain that much by dropping Indiana and picking up the tenth ranked team. 

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Let's not pretend that the Michigan's and OSU's of the world are being charitable by giving the IU's of the world a cut. They need regional markets, they need opponents that are solid, but not too good. They greatly benefit from the sense of big 10 unity - I watch a lot more OSU games now than I would if they were in some other conference. The big 10 might expand to 16 teams, but we're not going to see any major structural changes, even if the NCAA goes away.

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1 hour ago, Sark said:

I didn’t say anything about kicking IU out of the league, only that they may want a more equitable distribution of revenues. In that scenario, schools like IU that get more than they give will lose out. If a P5 exodus from the NCAA is possible, this is even more so. Ask anyone in the B12.

The situations are not analogous. Texas held all the cards, they were the powerhouse in the conference in terms of on the field success, local markets and name brand. They also we're being recruited by other conferences that offered them a perfectly viable alternative. So, they didn't need the big 12. The big 12 is a lesser conference than the big 10 and the SEC, so an equal deal from the big 12 was not going to compete  Where's Michigan going to go that would be a better deal than what they have now? That better deal is not out there.

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2 hours ago, Sark said:

I didn’t say anything about kicking IU out of the league, only that they may want a more equitable distribution of revenues. In that scenario, schools like IU that get more than they give will lose out. If a P5 exodus from the NCAA is possible, this is even more so. Ask anyone in the B12.

They do not bring in that much more.  Most of the money from sharing comes from the TV contracts.  If they want to keep the extra couple of hundred thousand from the bowl invites, go ahead...that is a drop in the bucket compared to the TV money.  And they are not the major factor for why TV revenues are so high.

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4 hours ago, IUCrazy2 said:

Disagree totally.  Most of the Big Ten money that is generated is based on TV.  Ohio State makes more on raw ticket sales because of football, but it is my understanding that they keep that.  What gets split out a bit is the payment for going to the NCAA tournament, bowl games, and TV contracts.  The latter of which is the lion share of the money.  So yes, Ohio State and Michigan could kick the Indiana, Illinois, and New York markets out of their league in order to not have to split their bowl money, but they would be cutting off their nose to spite their face at that point.

In the scenario I listed, they lose New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Indianapolis which is 4 of the top 25 TV markets in the country.  They could get some of that back I guess by making a super conference of certain schools, but that would leave a bunch of the country not watching and if they do a super conference they are still splitting revenue, but it is probably a smaller piece of revenue.

There is actually limited sharing of ticket revenues as well.

https://www.athleticbusiness.com/more-news/how-the-big-ten-s-unique-football-gate-revenue-sharing-works.html

I've not liked the conference consolidation and would not like a P5 split for reasons others have mentioned here. It's good to be in the Big Ten for sure, but now we play our traditional rivals less and (IMO) have much less of a chance to win a football championship. For us, we'd have to actually win the West and then also knock off an Ohio St or Penn St in the title game. And of course you guys have it even worse being in the East.

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18 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

 And of course you guys have it even worse being in the East.

You've got that right.  However. I look at it as challenge.  In recent years, in the case of football we have challenged some of the best the East has to offer.  IU is not there, yet. However I believe we are on the way.  By the way.  Last  FB game I attended in Bloomington was against your Illini.  WIth my son. A few years back.  And in a driving rain storm. We sat through the entire game. 

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