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At What Point......


5fouls

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My thoughts...

I totally have coach-crush on Archie. He gives me basketball warm-fuzzies. I'm more confident in him that anyone since Knight and Archie doesn't bring the bad-Knight qualities into the equation. I like what I see on the court and as much what I hear off of the court. He doesn't sugar coat anything, does not accept moral victories even when we might, and is very precise and articulate in every comment he makes. He doesn't throw people under the bus but also is honest and tells it how it is. I think he has the personal will, resolve and talent to build a quality program we will be excited about.

His coaching has put this team in a position to succeed and win in games that I really didn't think was possible a few short weeks ago. The players are getting open looks against quality teams. If they hit even a pedestrian 33% of the open looks they've gotten, a few of these near misses are literally a totally different ballgame. Even with mistakes and lack of execution at times...we are in these games (against superior teams) and I see the perimeter shooting as the main culprit for not being able to hang on when the opponent digs in and makes a run late (speaking mainly of Duke and UL).

No one can say if Archie will hang a banner (or more), but if he can recruit (and already has without much to success to show), I have every confidence that we will be a national power year in and year out, and relatively soon. It won't be this year, and we will likely have growing pains next year, but the rocket ship is on the launching pad and the igniters are lit. 

A couple quality shooters with length and this season looks totally different. 

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3 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

All that said, and call me impatient, Archie should only have 3 years (4 years tops) to prove that he's going to be something special. If we want to consider ourselves a top program then we'll have to objectively evaluate and act as fast as the other top programs do. 

 

I am absolutely on board with this.  As i am absolutely on board with CAM right now.  I love his passion and straight forwardness.  I assumed this year would be down when we lost 3 major players.  I assume next year will be better but not what we expect.  At year 3 i expect to be contending for the B1G title and a sweet sixteen type of run in the tourney and by year 4 we better be a national contender.  And after those year, give him a reasonable extension.  Not 10 years.

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On 12/10/2017 at 2:02 PM, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Currently I believe a lot of fans are delusional about where IU stands on the national landscape. That said, I think we are like Alabama football before Saban. Get the right guy in charge, we can be back at the top again. But we certainly aren’t there now. 

I remember a couple of years ago one Bama fan came over and said not to settle for mediocrity. To me, it was quite encouraging. I believe we finally got the right coach, but we just gotta give him enough time. How long is enough? I think towards the end of his year 3, we'll see what he's capable of. I've taken a look at some of the well-known coaches' careers and how long it took them to make a splash at their new positions; pretty much all of them started getting their programs going by end of their 3rd seasons. 

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11 minutes ago, addictedtoIU said:

I remember a couple of years ago one Bama fan came over and said not to settle for mediocrity. To me, it was quite encouraging. I believe we finally got the right coach, but we just gotta give him enough time. How long is enough? I think towards the end of his year 3, we'll see what he's capable of. I've taken a look at some of the well-known coaches' careers and how long it took them to make a splash at their new positions; pretty much all of them started getting their programs going by end of their 3rd seasons. 

I think he has to make the tournament next year, and then get a top 4-5 seed in Year 3. If we don’t make the tournament next year, he’ll have to have a pretty darn good season in Year 3 to keep his seat cool.  Unless things go really poorly, which I don’t expect, he’ll have 4 years to prove himself at a minimum.

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31 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I think he has to make the tournament next year, and then get a top 4-5 seed in Year 3. If we don’t make the tournament next year, he’ll have to have a pretty darn good season in Year 3 to keep his seat cool.  Unless things go really poorly, which I don’t expect, he’ll have 4 years to prove himself at a minimum.

4 years would be good enough sample size. I've got a world of confidence in CAM so I'm very hopeful. We can have a pretty solid team next year, but would Morgan return for his senior season if he continues to play well throughout the season? IMO, 2 things he hasn't shown much are his shooting (mid to long range) and ball-handling skills. 

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1 hour ago, addictedtoIU said:

4 years would be good enough sample size. I've got a world of confidence in CAM so I'm very hopeful. We can have a pretty solid team next year, but would Morgan return for his senior season if he continues to play well throughout the season? IMO, 2 things he hasn't shown much are his shooting (mid to long range) and ball-handling skills. 

Love the way he’s playing for us right now, but there is no way Juwan will go pro after this season.  His game won’t translate to the NBA.

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9 hours ago, rico said:

Should have never hired Davis.  That being said look around you older guys.  Where is DePaul without Ray Meyer?  Where is UNLV without Tarkanian?  The list goes on and on.  

I've been wanting to post this for a while, I think since I read how Duke fans were trashing IU but Duke is going to go the way of DePaul once K retires! Small school with high academic standards can't sustain!

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11 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

I've been wanting to post this for a while, I think since I read how Duke fans were trashing IU but Duke is going to go the way of DePaul once K retires! Small school with high academic standards can't sustain!

Duke doesn’t have any academic standards for their basketball players anymore.

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12 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Love the way he’s playing for us right now, but there is no way Juwan will go pro after this season.  His game won’t translate to the NBA.

I agree he won't go pro early, but I actually think he could be a similar player to Draymond without the shooting ability. 

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1 hour ago, KoB2011 said:

I agree he won't go pro early, but I actually think he could be a similar player to Draymond without the shooting ability. 

Maybe, but Draymond is a pretty big outlier to begin with.  I also think Draymond is more athletic and has a longer wingspan than Juwan, and his shooting is a big part of his ability to be effective in the NBA.  It’s not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet on Juwan playing in the NBA.  He can be a great college player though.

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On 12/10/2017 at 5:47 PM, milehiiu said:

Food for thought. 

Coach K of Duke.  He , of whom is still going strong with over 1,000 W's to his credit, went 6-8, 4-10, 3-11,7-7, and 8-6 in conference play in his first five years at Duke.  In fact, was 38-47 in his first three years.... a figure, that today, might have gotten him fired at many "name" schools across the country.

 

Speaking of K there is a book that I think you would like it's called The Legends Club it talks about K, Dean Smith, and Jim Valvano mostly about the ACC but still a good book. 

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On 12/10/2017 at 8:39 PM, milehiiu said:

Ahh, iff'y at best... as far as I am concerned.  Buba's moved the program.. However, IMHO it regressed after him.  And even "K" had issues in moving it to the program we know today. Bottom line, for me.  Duke saw what they had with "K" and chose to stay with him.  Kind of what I think will happen with Archie...... just give him time.

And with K he had an AD like Tom Butters who knew what he was doing when he hired K and had his back even when things didn't go well.

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44 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Maybe, but Draymond is a pretty big outlier to begin with.  I also think Draymond is more athletic and has a longer wingspan than Juwan, and his shooting is a big part of his ability to be effective in the NBA.  It’s not impossible, but I wouldn’t bet on Juwan playing in the NBA.  He can be a great college player though.

I agree his shooting is what makes him a top 20 player, but I think he could be an effective roleplayer without it. Either way, I'm thrilled to see Juwan turning into an impact player at IU. 

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15 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Love the way he’s playing for us right now, but there is no way Juwan will go pro after this season.  His game won’t translate to the NBA.

I wouldn't be so sure. Take away the first couple of games and he's almost averaging a double double. If he keeps up that production through Big Ten play then there's definitely a chance. 

How many times have we all said: 'there's no chance (fill in the blank's) game will transfer to the NBA'? OG's ball handling is suspect, his shot isn't consistent and he may not recover from his knee injury. Noah Vonleh is soft/still too young. Cody's always gets stuffed; there's no way he can hack among the NBA bigs. Thomas Bryant is too slow. I've talked myself self into these arguments time and time again only to be selfishly disappointed when these guys don't come back. 

Heck, RoJo tested the waters last year! I'll confidently predict that Juwan will go to the NBA draft camp this year.....and once he's there, you never know what he's going to hear from scouts. Right now I'll put a 35% chance of him leaving. 

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15 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I wouldn't be so sure. Take away the first couple of games and he's almost averaging a double double. If he keeps up that production through Big Ten play then there's definitely a chance. 

How many times have we all said: 'there's no chance (fill in the blank's) game will transfer to the NBA'? OG's ball handling is suspect, his shot isn't consistent and he may not recover from his knee injury. Noah Vonleh is soft/still too young. Cody's always gets stuffed; there's no way he can hack among the NBA bigs. Thomas Bryant is too slow. I've talked myself self into these arguments time and time again only to be selfishly disappointed when these guys don't come back. 

Heck, RoJo tested the waters last year! I'll confidently predict that Juwan will go to the NBA draft camp this year.....and once he's there, you never know what he's going to hear from scouts. Right now I'll put a 35% chance of him leaving. 

College stats don’t mean much to pro scouts if a player doesn’t have the traits to succeed at the NBA level.  Just look at OG, who hardly produced anything stat-wise in college and is now thriving as a rookie first round pick.  The big trait I think Juwan is lacking is NBA-level athleticism.

I can’t speak for others, but of the players you listed, the only one who I personally thought made a mistake by leaving early was Bryant, and that was only because I thought one more year under Archie could boost his draft stock into the first round.  All of those players had the level of athleticism required to make it in the NBA, and it showed in where they ended up getting drafted.

If Juwan left after this season, there is absolutely no chance he would be drafted.  I think he knows this, just like RoJo did last year.  And as shown by his play this season, the fact that RoJo declared after last year was a total joke.  Although Juwan is a much better college player than RoJo, the scouts won’t tell him he’s an NBA prospect if he decides to test the waters after this season.

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A lot of talk in the thread about Archie being the right guy.  He may very well be.  But, circling back to the original premise of the thread, answer this.

In your opinion,. 10 years from now, what will Archie have to have accomplished to be unquestionably stamped as 'the right guy'?

 

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10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

A lot of talk in the thread about Archie being the right guy.  He may very well be.  But, circling back to the original premise of the thread, answer this.

In your opinion,. 10 years from now, what will Archie have to have accomplished to be unquestionably stamped as 'the right guy'?

 

A national championship.

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6 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

College stats don’t mean much to pro scouts if a player doesn’t have the traits to succeed at the NBA level.  Just look at OG, who hardly produced anything stat-wise in college and is now thriving as a rookie first round pick.  The big trait I think Juwan is lacking is NBA-level athleticism.

I can’t speak for others, but of the players you listed, the only one who I personally thought made a mistake by leaving early was Bryant, and that was only because I thought one more year under Archie could boost his draft stock into the first round.  All of those players had the level of athleticism required to make it in the NBA, and it showed in where they ended up getting drafted.

If Juwan left after this season, there is absolutely no chance he would be drafted.  I think he knows this, just like RoJo did last year.  And as shown by his play this season, the fact that RoJo declared after last year was a total joke.  Although Juwan is a much better college player than RoJo, the scouts won’t tell him he’s an NBA prospect if he decides to test the waters after this season.

Juwan has the size, is athletic and is a great rebounder. The last 2 years he was plagued with nagging injuries. He's started to break out this year and if he continues an upward trend then there's definitely a chance. If he's 1st or 2nd team Big Ten, he will be getting interest from the pros....it's just a given these days.

I'm just saying that I do think this is something we'll be talking about by the end of the season. Maybe I'm being too literal about your OP, but saying there's 'no way' is a bit of a stretch....he's easily the best player on this team right now. 

 

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18 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

A lot of talk in the thread about Archie being the right guy.  He may very well be.  But, circling back to the original premise of the thread, answer this.

In your opinion,. 10 years from now, what will Archie have to have accomplished to be unquestionably stamped as 'the right guy'?

 

A NC would definitely do it.  But putting us in the Top Ten every year and deep runs to the EE and FF would help as well.

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20 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

A lot of talk in the thread about Archie being the right guy.  He may very well be.  But, circling back to the original premise of the thread, answer this.

In your opinion,. 10 years from now, what will Archie have to have accomplished to be unquestionably stamped as 'the right guy'?

 

I'd like to say a championship, but those are hard to come by. If not a championship then definitely 2 final fours, littered in with multiple elite eights.

I think we should have 'hope' every year. Always ranked in the top 25-30 on 'reloading years' and top 10-15 on other years.  This should start in 2019-20 at the latest. 

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9 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Is that okay if we miss the tournament in 7 of those years?

I see what you’re saying, but I feel like this just isn’t a realistic scenario.  If he misses the tournament 7/10 years, it’s very unlikely that he wins a national championship in one of the other three years.  I would be surprised if there’s ever been a coach that has had a 10 year stretch like that at one school, it’s just not really how college basketball works.

My point was, it will be hard to look back in 10 years and say Archie was the “right guy” unless he’s won a national championship.  But, even if he’s not able to get over the hump and win one, I think two or three Final Fours in those 10 years would also do it.

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