Investing

[Reacher]

To be successful at investing, 3 questions have to be answered.

1) When to buy.  2) What to buy.  3) When to sell.

I prefer methods that take the human emotion out of the equation.

[NotIThatLives]

On 12/7/2020 at 12:57 AM, mrflynn03 said:

Bogleheads guide to investing.

Take what market gives you. 

Bogleheads book.

Index funds is where it's at for us simpletons.

I unfortunately just got fired but I have enough money to live a couple years because of John Bogles advice.  

Ordered the book.  

Chickened out on airbnb.  It went from $68 to $150 already.  Son of a gun.  

Wish ipo is next week.  Wish is like a dollar store version of amazon with loads of chinese junk.  They had been historically unreliable with deliveries.  I ordered a stand up paddle board. They had the address mixed up, made it to town but was never delivered.  Come to find out it gets sent out to California at some sorting center and probably auctioned off for pennies.  Did get full refund. They are being underwritten by Goldman Sachs & Co., JPMorgan and BofA Securities.  I can't see them not forcing wish to become reliable to negate legal battles.

Here's an article.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wish-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-mobile-e-commerce-company-11606769658

Call me crazy but I would compare this to Amazon's international competitor alibaba.  In it's 6 years it has went from $89 to 264 today.  

In that same 6 year time frame Amazon has went from 323 to 3099 today.  

May be worth looking into.  

[HoosierFaithful]

Forgive my ignorance but on an IPO, purely mechanically, doesn't the price shoot up... almost immediately?  Wouldn't purchasing at the entry price be almost impossible?

Said another way: isn't it likely big hedge funds and/or big time investors who get access to those IPO prices ($68 here for AirBNB, particularly) and when regular investors try to get in, it's already up to the peaks?

Not implying malfeasance or anything either, just that these professional traders probably have algorithms and platforms that we don't.

[NotIThatLives]

34 minutes ago, HoosierFaithful said:

Forgive my ignorance but on an IPO, purely mechanically, doesn't the price shoot up... almost immediately?  Wouldn't purchasing at the entry price be almost impossible?

Said another way: isn't it likely big hedge funds and/or big time investors who get access to those IPO prices ($68 here for AirBNB, particularly) and when regular investors try to get in, it's already up to the peaks?

Not implying malfeasance or anything either, just that these professional traders probably have algorithms and platforms that we don't.

I don't know how quickly it changes.  At 908 yesterday morning it was still 68.  I checked back around 2 and it was around 132.  I don't know if it would have allowed me to buy at 68 since I didn't try.  This is my first go at stocks.  

[Leathernecks]

2 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

Ordered the book.  

Chickened out on airbnb.  It went from $68 to $150 already.  Son of a gun.  

Wish ipo is next week.  Wish is like a dollar store version of amazon with loads of chinese junk.  They had been historically unreliable with deliveries.  I ordered a stand up paddle board. They had the address mixed up, made it to town but was never delivered.  Come to find out it gets sent out to California at some sorting center and probably auctioned off for pennies.  Did get full refund. They are being underwritten by Goldman Sachs & Co., JPMorgan and BofA Securities.  I can't see them not forcing wish to become reliable to negate legal battles.

Here's an article.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wish-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-mobile-e-commerce-company-11606769658

Call me crazy but I would compare this to Amazon's international competitor alibaba.  In it's 6 years it has went from $89 to 264 today.  

In that same 6 year time frame Amazon has went from 323 to 3099 today.  

May be worth looking into.  

I'm a big fan of JD.com which is somewhat similar to Alibaba.  Got in this year at $50, and some more at $60.  Got over $90, but it has gone down to the low $80s the last couple weeks with the Chinese audit push in Congress. They should have no issue making compliance since they're an actual good company, and I read somewhere that they said they're already compliant, they just have to do the paperwork.  I expect to see it go up a lot in the next couple years, and I think it will eventually pass Alibaba.

[HoosierFaithful]

2 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

I don't know how quickly it changes.  At 908 yesterday morning it was still 68.  I checked back around 2 and it was around 132.  I don't know if it would have allowed me to buy at 68 since I didn't try.  This is my first go at stocks.  

Interesting. I don’t know much either, I was mostly postulating. 

[FKIM01]

1 hour ago, HoosierFaithful said:

Forgive my ignorance but on an IPO, purely mechanically, doesn't the price shoot up... almost immediately?  Wouldn't purchasing at the entry price be almost impossible?

Said another way: isn't it likely big hedge funds and/or big time investors who get access to those IPO prices ($68 here for AirBNB, particularly) and when regular investors try to get in, it's already up to the peaks?

Not implying malfeasance or anything either, just that these professional traders probably have algorithms and platforms that we don't.

1. Far from an automatic that IPO's go up on initial trading.  Recently, lots of oversubscribed issues have, which, if I'm the private owner, I'm pissed because my investment bankers could have gotten me a LOT more $$$ on the initial price.
2. Often after the initial excitement, the IPO pulls back a lot from the initial surge.  Sometimes well below the subscription price on less successful IPO's.
3. Yes, you typically have to be a big dog to buy at the IPO price, especially the popular ones.  Ones that most retail investors have access to are likely not viewed as sure things.
4. IPO investing is quite speculative.  Many people playing them are intending a quick flip.  Fine to play with "play" money, but be careful in this arena if losses would have a material impact to your financial strength.

[Seeking6]

3 hours ago, HoosierFaithful said:

Forgive my ignorance but on an IPO, purely mechanically, doesn't the price shoot up... almost immediately?  Wouldn't purchasing at the entry price be almost impossible?

Said another way: isn't it likely big hedge funds and/or big time investors who get access to those IPO prices ($68 here for AirBNB, particularly) and when regular investors try to get in, it's already up to the peaks?

Not implying malfeasance or anything either, just that these professional traders probably have algorithms and platforms that we don't.

You have to be an accredited investor. If not....99.999999% of the street can't get action until it becomes open on the markets. For example when Beyond Meat went public it shot to $58 before I could get in. At those price points I didn't think it was worth it. The public and everyone else frenzied this stock up to almost $250/share inside of 90 days. I missed on that portion but bought this past March when it came back to normal levels. 

But to original point...most can't ever get in an IPO.

Edited December 11, 2020 by Seeking6

[Reacher]

14 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

1. Far from an automatic that IPO's go up on initial trading.  Recently, lots of oversubscribed issues have, which, if I'm the private owner, I'm pissed because my investment bankers could have gotten me a LOT more $$$ on the initial price.
2. Often after the initial excitement, the IPO pulls back a lot from the initial surge.  Sometimes well below the subscription price on less successful IPO's.
3. Yes, you typically have to be a big dog to buy at the IPO price, especially the popular ones.  Ones that most retail investors have access to are likely not viewed as sure things.
4. IPO investing is quite speculative.  Many people playing them are intending a quick flip.  Fine to play with "play" money, but be careful in this arena if losses would have a material impact to your financial strength.

This. 

You never hear about the IPOs that go down in value. I will try and look later, but I believe that is the majority. 

The people that make out on IPOs are the people that invested in the private equity rounds and the bankers. 

[NotIThatLives]

Found this.  Explained what happened this week with door dash and airbnb.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/kelly-evans-the-airbnb-pop-that-wasnt.html

[Leathernecks]

Another thing I use for investing is my HSA.  As a 33 year old single guy who is usually in pretty good health, it made sense for me, but I know an HSA isn't great for everyone.  You can invest the money in HSA accounts, so I have been doing that lately.  I have about $5500 in it and get just over $80 a month added to it by my employer.  At 65, you can withdraw from an HSA without penalty, but it is taxed at that point.  I'm making a lot more than I would if I just let it sit in a bank account.

[Zlinedavid]

On 12/11/2020 at 2:30 PM, HoosierFaithful said:

Forgive my ignorance but on an IPO, purely mechanically, doesn't the price shoot up... almost immediately?  Wouldn't purchasing at the entry price be almost impossible?

Said another way: isn't it likely big hedge funds and/or big time investors who get access to those IPO prices ($68 here for AirBNB, particularly) and when regular investors try to get in, it's already up to the peaks?

Not implying malfeasance or anything either, just that these professional traders probably have algorithms and platforms that we don't.

If memory serves, Facebook's IPO hit an initial surge, but finished the day below the IPO price. 

[NotIThatLives]

On 12/19/2020 at 10:45 AM, Leathernecks said:

Another thing I use for investing is my HSA.  As a 33 year old single guy who is usually in pretty good health, it made sense for me, but I know an HSA isn't great for everyone.  You can invest the money in HSA accounts, so I have been doing that lately.  I have about $5500 in it and get just over $80 a month added to it by my employer.  At 65, you can withdraw from an HSA without penalty, but it is taxed at that point.  I'm making a lot more than I would if I just let it sit in a bank account.

Yep.  I'm invested in hsa authority through old national since I can deal with them locally.  However I figured out, the branch has no clue how to deal with hsa authority.  It's a simple phone call though if I ever need something. 

Employer gives 2500 annually for family and I cash 4 vacation days a year into it.  I figure the majority of cash emergencies will be medical so I sort of think about it as a medical emergency fund.  I pay my little nickle and dime expenses out of pocket.  Anything over 150 or so I'll pay through hsa.  I should have around 130k in there by retirement.  I keep every medical receipt as you can pay yourself back, tax free at anytime.  So my game plan is down the road if I need to help pay for a wedding or college, I can pay myself then as needed.  

this is where I started for those interested.  https://www.morningstar.com/insights/2017/09/25/best-hsa-investment

 

 

 

[Leathernecks]

4 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

Yep.  I'm invested in hsa authority through old national since I can deal with them locally.  However I figured out, the branch has no clue how to deal with hsa authority.  It's a simple phone call though if I ever need something. 

Employer gives 2500 annually for family and I cash 4 vacation days a year into it.  I figure the majority of cash emergencies will be medical so I sort of think about it as a medical emergency fund.  I pay my little nickle and dime expenses out of pocket.  Anything over 150 or so I'll pay through hsa.  I should have around 130k in there by retirement.  I keep every medical receipt as you can pay yourself back, tax free at anytime.  So my game plan is down the road if I need to help pay for a wedding or college, I can pay myself then as needed.  

this is where I started for those interested.  https://www.morningstar.com/insights/2017/09/25/best-hsa-investment

 

 

 

I have mine through HSA Bank because it connects to TD Ameritrade where I already had an account. I like that I can invest in pretty much whatever I want. I have it in stock right now which has me up about 40% this year.

I'm pretty aggressive with mine since I have over the maximum out of pocket in it.  Even if I go down 50%, I'll still be able to cover the deductible.  I know I'm a lot more aggressive than most people like to be though. 

[DWB]

On 12/19/2020 at 10:45 AM, Leathernecks said:

Another thing I use for investing is my HSA.  As a 33 year old single guy who is usually in pretty good health, it made sense for me, but I know an HSA isn't great for everyone.  You can invest the money in HSA accounts, so I have been doing that lately.  I have about $5500 in it and get just over $80 a month added to it by my employer.  At 65, you can withdraw from an HSA without penalty, but it is taxed at that point.  I'm making a lot more than I would if I just let it sit in a bank account.

Current law (subject to change of course) is at 65, (or later) you can "rollover" your HSA into your Traditional IRA without taxation. Also, you can use your HSA account to reimburse yourself for Medicare Part B premiums (not part D, just B) without taxation.

[NotIThatLives]

3 hours ago, Leathernecks said:

I have mine through HSA Bank because it connects to TD Ameritrade where I already had an account. I like that I can invest in pretty much whatever I want. I have it in stock right now which has me up about 40% this year.

I'm pretty aggressive with mine since I have over the maximum out of pocket in it.  Even if I go down 50%, I'll still be able to cover the deductible.  I know I'm a lot more aggressive than most people like to be though. 

Cool. Yeah I'm in a in a couple of aggressive index funds.  Stock heavy of course

[Lostin76]

Most of our money is in index funds, but we have a chunk of Apple. My wife bought a bunch of Peloton earlier this year - we’ve had a bike since last Nov and both use it a few times a week. She’s already doubled her money as it’s at $160 and she bought when it was $75. 

She continues her streak of picking stocks at exactly the right time. She also always beats everyone in our March Madness pools. 

[Seeking6]

Anyone check what's been going on with GameStop since Thursday? The power of Reddit. Haha.

[NotIThatLives]

1 hour ago, Seeking6 said:

Anyone check what's been going on with GameStop since Thursday? The power of Reddit. Haha.

Up 91% over 5 days.  

I don't see it.  Can't you buy everything there off the internet?

[Hoosierhoopster]

55 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Up 91% over 5 days.  

I don't see it.  Can't you buy everything there off the internet?

Yes, and don’t see a good reason to go with GameStop 

[Hoosierhoopster]

Looking for some good 5G infrastructure stocks/companies. 5G will be huge. Apple is always good and already has it coming in its next phone but finding some more under the radar but good long term bets is a good idea. Still love Apple though 

[Leathernecks]

On 12/11/2020 at 3:29 PM, Leathernecks said:

I'm a big fan of JD.com which is somewhat similar to Alibaba.  Got in this year at $50, and some more at $60.  Got over $90, but it has gone down to the low $80s the last couple weeks with the Chinese audit push in Congress. They should have no issue making compliance since they're an actual good company, and I read somewhere that they said they're already compliant, they just have to do the paperwork.  I expect to see it go up a lot in the next couple years, and I think it will eventually pass Alibaba.

Touched $100 this morning.  Really like how this stock has been doing for me, and really like where it is headed.  Up about 75% in 6 months.  Also got into Livent (LTHM) that is a lithium company.  I think they have a lot of potential with the increase demand in EVs.  They have a deal with Tesla for an increase in battery production for 2021, so I think they have a pretty good floor.

[Leathernecks]

1 hour ago, NotIThatLives said:

Up 91% over 5 days.  

I don't see it.  Can't you buy everything there off the internet?

Can't imagine it stays at these levels for long.  It will be interesting to see what happens as the news grows about trading the last week.  In 2 and a half hours today, it went from $89 up to $159, back down to to $61, then back up to $84.  Insane movement.

[NotIThatLives]

11 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

Can't imagine it stays at these levels for long.  It will be interesting to see what happens as the news grows about trading the last week.  In 2 and a half hours today, it went from $89 up to $159, back down to to $61, then back up to $84.  Insane movement.

I guess it has something to do with a reddit movement???  Someone else will have to explain. 

[Leathernecks]

1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Looking for some good 5G infrastructure stocks/companies. 5G will be huge. Apple is always good and already has it coming in its next phone but finding some more under the radar but good long term bets is a good idea. Still love Apple though 

A company like NVIDIA would be a decent option.  They're not solely dependent on 5G, and they've been a solid stock for a couple years, so they're a fairly safe play.  Qualcomm would probably be a good option too.  Not sure what is out there if you're looking for smaller companies that might hit it big.