Jump to content

Investing


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, JaybobHoosier said:

Yeah, both have their pros and cons. I look at my stock portfolio as a side savings account to gamble with. I typically sell out of stuff once they start doing bad, but will stay in if I believe in their long term success. It’s my form of gambling to keep me away from the casinos lol. In no way do I have a gambling addiction, but prefer to stay away to lose money. 

Yep, that's what mine is as well.  A fun, occasionally profitable diversion.  My "real" savings/retirement are in typical mutual funds....but those are boring by comparison...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

Yep, that's what mine is as well.  A fun, occasionally profitable diversion.  My "real" savings/retirement are in typical mutual funds....but those are boring by comparison...lol.

You don’t want to go on and on about mutual funds? Lol. We are about to move our kids savings into the state sponsored 529 account, and then setting them up with some mutual funds (hopefully) on top of that. 

Unfortunately we got a late start to saving, with it mainly being my fault. My dad was a spender and I was never taught how to save, let alone the importance of it. We are working our way out of some debt while also upping our savings/retirements as well. 

Investing to me is fun regarding stocks, like I mentioned earlier. I try to diversify my stock portfolio, with some in pharmaceutical, green energy, and various others.

Edited by JaybobHoosier
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JaybobHoosier said:

You don’t want to go on and on about mutual funds? Lol. We are about to move our kids savings into the state sponsored 529 account, and then setting them up with some mutual funds (hopefully) on top of that. 

Unfortunately we got a late start to saving, with it mainly being my fault. My dad was a spender and I was never taught how to save, let alone the importance of it. We are working our way out of some debt while also upping our savings/retirements as well. 

Investing to me is fun regarding stocks, like I mentioned earlier. I try to diversify my stock portfolio, with some in pharmaceutical, green energy, and various others.

I also play in a lot of small/mid cap bios, and I say it’s proof that I must be a masochist deep down. 🤣

That sector has been brutal the last 12-14 months. It’s all been luck and timing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No idea who this group is, or how good they are.  But they get an A+ for clarity.

Here's their S&P 500 forecast for the next 2 years, month by month.

They predict flat to sluggish for the next 12 months, then moving to a 24% gain two years from now, in 2024.

I'm interested to see what others here think of this, and why.  Obviously, anyone who predicts the stock market monthly for the next 2 years is guaranteed to be wrong in details.  The question is will they be close to correct overall, especially the end point?

https://longforecast.com/sp-500-index-forecast-2017-2018-2019

S&P 500 Forecast By Month.

Year Mo Min Max Close Total%
2022 Apr 3905 4593 4154 -8.62%
2022 May 3797 4281 4039 -11.15%
2022 Jun 3987 4495 4241 -6.71%
2022 Jul 3787 4271 4029 -11.37%
2022 Aug 3612 4074 3843 -15.46%
2022 Sep 3793 4277 4035 -11.24%
2022 Oct 3710 4184 3947 -13.18%
2022 Nov 3895 4393 4144 -8.84%
2022 Dec 3752 4230 3991 -12.21%
2023 Jan 3862 4354 4108 -9.63%
2023 Feb 3929 4431 4180 -8.05%
2023 Mar 4039 4555 4297 -5.48%
2023 Apr 4059 4577 4318 -5.02%
2023 May 4222 4760 4491 -1.21%
2023 Jun 4349 4905 4627 1.78%
2023 Jul 4497 5071 4784 5.24%
2023 Aug 4519 5095 4807 5.74%
2023 Sep 4634 5226 4930 8.45%
2023 Oct 4866 5488 5177 13.88%
2023 Nov 4707 5307 5007 10.14%
2023 Dec 4512 5088 4800 5.59%
2024 Jan 4738 5342 5040 10.87%
2024 Feb 4974 5608 5291 16.39%
2024 Mar 5071 5719 5395 18.68%
2024 Apr 5325 6005 5665 24.62%

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Madison22 said:

No idea who this group is, or how good they are.  But they get an A+ for clarity.

Here's their S&P 500 forecast for the next 2 years, month by month.

They predict flat to sluggish for the next 12 months, then moving to a 24% gain two years from now, in 2024.

I'm interested to see what others here think of this, and why.  Obviously, anyone who predicts the stock market monthly for the next 2 years is guaranteed to be wrong in details.  The question is will they be close to correct overall, especially the end point?

https://longforecast.com/sp-500-index-forecast-2017-2018-2019

S&P 500 Forecast By Month.

Year Mo Min Max Close Total%
2022 Apr 3905 4593 4154 -8.62%
2022 May 3797 4281 4039 -11.15%
2022 Jun 3987 4495 4241 -6.71%
2022 Jul 3787 4271 4029 -11.37%
2022 Aug 3612 4074 3843 -15.46%
2022 Sep 3793 4277 4035 -11.24%
2022 Oct 3710 4184 3947 -13.18%
2022 Nov 3895 4393 4144 -8.84%
2022 Dec 3752 4230 3991 -12.21%
2023 Jan 3862 4354 4108 -9.63%
2023 Feb 3929 4431 4180 -8.05%
2023 Mar 4039 4555 4297 -5.48%
2023 Apr 4059 4577 4318 -5.02%
2023 May 4222 4760 4491 -1.21%
2023 Jun 4349 4905 4627 1.78%
2023 Jul 4497 5071 4784 5.24%
2023 Aug 4519 5095 4807 5.74%
2023 Sep 4634 5226 4930 8.45%
2023 Oct 4866 5488 5177 13.88%
2023 Nov 4707 5307 5007 10.14%
2023 Dec 4512 5088 4800 5.59%
2024 Jan 4738 5342 5040 10.87%
2024 Feb 4974 5608 5291 16.39%
2024 Mar 5071 5719 5395 18.68%
2024 Apr 5325 6005 5665 24.62%

 

It’d be interesting if someone would make SPY plays based on this and monitored their returns. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

It’d be interesting if someone would make SPY plays based on this and monitored their returns. 

During the dot-com era, some guy made headlines when he picked stocks by letting his parakeet poop on the Wall Street Journal stock listings at the bottom of the cage.

He outperformed the market by a big margin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Guess this will be thrown in here. Any realtors on this board? My question is this.

When going to list a property I would think first thing to do is check all recent history in area for 90 days or so. Won't go into specific numbers because I don't like that sort of talk on boards. Property in back of my hood not on lake sold for 14% more 3 weeks ago than another neighbor just listed theirs which is on water.

We never intend on selling...if/when we move we'll keep to rent ours out but I really want to email the realtor and ask them what went into the listing price here because it's a good 15-20% off. Just laziness? Inept?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Guess this will be thrown in here. Any realtors on this board? My question is this.

When going to list a property I would think first thing to do is check all recent history in area for 90 days or so. Won't go into specific numbers because I don't like that sort of talk on boards. Property in back of my hood not on lake sold for 14% more 3 weeks ago than another neighbor just listed theirs which is on water.

We never intend on selling...if/when we move we'll keep to rent ours out but I really want to email the realtor and ask them what went into the listing price here because it's a good 15-20% off. Just laziness? Inept?

 

My brother and next door neighbors are realtors. There are certainly good ones and bad ones. Maybe the realtor did their research before the last sale was published? Maybe the new seller wants to sell quick and / or that house isn't in the best shape.... Real estate has always been and will always be a rather inefficient market, IMO. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Reacher said:

My brother and next door neighbors are realtors. There are certainly good ones and bad ones. Maybe the realtor did their research before the last sale was published? Maybe the new seller wants to sell quick and / or that house isn't in the best shape.... Real estate has always been and will always be a rather inefficient market, IMO. 

This would be my guess. Condition of the home Or speed of sale.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Reacher said:

My brother and next door neighbors are realtors. There are certainly good ones and bad ones. Maybe the realtor did their research before the last sale was published? Maybe the new seller wants to sell quick and / or that house isn't in the best shape.... Real estate has always been and will always be a rather inefficient market, IMO. 

All good points and fair ones as well. Here's the thing the one property with the extra 14% sale price was done on April 14th....the other one listed this past Friday...and on top of that the one closest to me has brand new AC, Furnace, Water Heater within last 3 years.

Something just isn't adding up to me. Oh well. I should my own business I guess!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Guess this will be thrown in here. Any realtors on this board? My question is this.

When going to list a property I would think first thing to do is check all recent history in area for 90 days or so. Won't go into specific numbers because I don't like that sort of talk on boards. Property in back of my hood not on lake sold for 14% more 3 weeks ago than another neighbor just listed theirs which is on water.

We never intend on selling...if/when we move we'll keep to rent ours out but I really want to email the realtor and ask them what went into the listing price here because it's a good 15-20% off. Just laziness? Inept?

 

Maybe a combination the Endowment Effect and a buyer that didn't do research and or overzealous.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Guess this will be thrown in here. Any realtors on this board? My question is this.

When going to list a property I would think first thing to do is check all recent history in area for 90 days or so. Won't go into specific numbers because I don't like that sort of talk on boards. Property in back of my hood not on lake sold for 14% more 3 weeks ago than another neighbor just listed theirs which is on water.

We never intend on selling...if/when we move we'll keep to rent ours out but I really want to email the realtor and ask them what went into the listing price here because it's a good 15-20% off. Just laziness? Inept?

 

Besides what has already been mentioned (condition, eagerness, etc) what about house size (sq footage), materials (brick vs siding etc), and lot size? I know you mentioned the one nearest you had new furnace/ac etc. but could have been outdated?

I can tell you that we have sold a few houses over the years, and we always make sure our houses present themselves really well to prospective buyers. On the flip side, we have looked at houses where some of them look like they haven't been clean or anything updated in over a decade. You also can't underestimate the buyers emotional aspect when purchasing a home...if they love it, they will often overpay!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, FritzIam4IU said:

Besides what has already been mentioned (condition, eagerness, etc) what about house size (sq footage), materials (brick vs siding etc), and lot size? I know you mentioned the one nearest you had new furnace/ac etc. but could have been outdated?

I can tell you that we have sold a few houses over the years, and we always make sure our houses present themselves really well to prospective buyers. On the flip side, we have looked at houses where some of them look like they haven't been clean or anything updated in over a decade. You also can't underestimate the buyers emotional aspect when purchasing a home...if they love it, they will often overpay!

Without going into specifics. The one that sold for 14% more was 73 more square feet. Everything else being equal (brick)....besides the biggest thing which is the one that was listed for far less is waterfront. The other isn't. 

Just the difference in %'s had me interested. The sellers aren't in a place where they have to sell. Just odd is all I've got. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Without going into specifics. The one that sold for 14% more was 73 more square feet. Everything else being equal (brick)....besides the biggest thing which is the one that was listed for far less is waterfront. The other isn't. 

Just the difference in %'s had me interested. The sellers aren't in a place where they have to sell. Just odd is all I've got. 

Maybe they feel the market is slowing and/ or a more desperate realtor wants a quick commission? The son had a meth lab in the basement? You may never know exactly why, but your original hunch of a lazy agent could be the best place to start. The seller should also realize what their home is worth so at least 2 people are part of that decision.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the cost of construction materials now a days, the sales price of existing has become almost ludicrous! My son moved from Streamwood Il last year. He had 5 offers on his townhouse all way over the asking price! In fact the appraiser Who needs to catch up didn’t approve that much over! So the top offer didn’t go through because they didn’t have the cash for the difference the bank wouldn’t approve. When my son made an offer for a house in Adrian MI he missed on the first house, he scored on the second home in the same neighborhood because he understood the premium, which again was significantly higher than the asking price. My daughter recently got her realtor license out in CA. So far she has only sold 1 home. It went for $50,000 over asking price!

Real Estate is crazy right now, and I think it’s only going to get worse!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Drroogh said:

With the cost of construction materials now a days, the sales price of existing has become almost ludicrous! My son moved from Streamwood Il last year. He had 5 offers on his townhouse all way over the asking price! In fact the appraiser Who needs to catch up didn’t approve that much over! So the top offer didn’t go through because they didn’t have the cash for the difference the bank wouldn’t approve. When my son made an offer for a house in Adrian MI he missed on the first house, he scored on the second home in the same neighborhood because he understood the premium, which again was significantly higher than the asking price. My daughter recently got her realtor license out in CA. So far she has only sold 1 home. It went for $50,000 over asking price!

Real Estate is crazy right now, and I think it’s only going to get worse!

I sold my previous home in September 2020. It was on the market for less than 18 hours and we received an above ask offer from a cash buyer. 
 

Within two hours, we had 7 showings scheduled, and the offer we received was from the first showing. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Without going into specifics. The one that sold for 14% more was 73 more square feet. Everything else being equal (brick)....besides the biggest thing which is the one that was listed for far less is waterfront. The other isn't. 

Just the difference in %'s had me interested. The sellers aren't in a place where they have to sell. Just odd is all I've got. 

So up here on Morse, I see a house listed easily 150k under recent comps.  It winds up going for over 200k over asking.  Different market but it makes me wonder if it was the seller insisting on listing at a certain price they have had in their head since 2002.  

Edited by NotIThatLives
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

So up here on Morse, I see a house listed easily 150k under recent comps.  It winds up going for over 200k over asking.  Different market but it makes me wonder if it was the seller insisting on listing at a certain price they have had in their head since 2002.  

Or maybe they did an auction type of selling process and they purposely had low ball price to bring more people in? 

Strange one for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Or maybe they did an auction type of selling process and they purposely had low ball price to bring more people in? 

Strange one for sure. 

I'd imagine multiple offers.  I can see 5 or 10% under comps so you know you are going to create a multiple offer situation in which your counter is simply, "multiple offers, please submit your best and final offer."

But 150k under recent comps.  I watch it like a hawk too.  And this was supposed to be the premier lake agent.  I even made a small comment on the morse Facebook page, that got a few likes bit no comments.  Most novices don't watch the market like I do.  There is currently a house on the lake listed at $408 a square foot.  Half the size of mine but mine will be nicer in all ways when I'm finished.  Thank Hod this goof sold to me right before things exploded.

Also another thing to think about.  They may know it needs attention somewhere.  Maybe they know it's going to fail a certain place in a inspection or even the walk through will raise red flags.  The realtor can just say, we have already priced that in????  Just throwing out scenarios.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
26 minutes ago, JaybobHoosier said:

What a crazy last couple days in the stock market (picture perfect for how 2022 has gone). Lost about 4% yesterday to gain half of it back today. Crazy swings today with the release of the fed minutes. 
 

Anyone get into DogeCoin with it being in the $.08 range? 

You aren't losing anything if don't look! Haha. Honestly I had to take a break from looking at things for last couple months. We are in the cash hoarding business if we can because I have zero clue if this is the bottom...or not. We might miss out on the initial pop if indicators go that way but I'm not buying a thing right now.

All hold mode. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Joe_Hoopsier said:

I probably won't say this correctly, but my numbers are accurate.

The value of my 401 has lost ~50K in the last ~4ish months. According to my statement balance. I am not touching anything so no, I have not "lost" anything, but dang that is unnerving. 

I tell my clients to always use percentages instead of absolute numbers. A loss of $50,000 from a $75,000 account is much more concerning than losing that much from a $1M account. As your accounts grow over time the magnitude of the dollar amount will grow over time as well and can lead to classic emotions of fear and greed influencing investment decisions. Using percentages and comparing to a benchmark is the only way to go. 10% by itself means little. Knowing a timeframe and a benchmark puts it into perspective. That 10% is a lot different if the S&P is down 10 or up 25%. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...