IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Leathernecks said: Here is the math on the Colts going for 2. These calculations all assumes the Bills don't score, but them scoring doesn't change the overall point. The league conversion rate on 2 point attempts averages just under 50%. That means based on averages, you get it half the time, and the next time you score, you get the extra point almost 95% of the time. That means you would win in regulation roughly 47.5% of the time. If you miss the first conversion, you have another 50% of getting the 2nd one. That means roughly 25% of the time you get the 2nd conversion and get to overtime. Add in the other 2.5% from the odds of missing the extra point after getting the first conversion. In overtime, you basically have a 50/50 chance. That means you win half of that 27.5% which would be 13.75%. The odds of missing the first and second 2 point conversions and losing in regulation would be roughly 25%. Breaking it down more, here are the results from a math perspective. Win = 61% Lose in regulation = 25% Lose in overtime = 14% Moral of the story, the math says you're better off going for 2 in that situation. Especially when the penalty moves the ball to the 1 since the odds of getting the first one would go up. This also doesn't take away from the many other questionable decisions the Colts have made today! You don't play football with a calculator and doing do is hurting the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leathernecks Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 It's crazy how much better the Colts offense has been when they've been focused on scoring and not trying to run the clock down to 0 before snapping every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leathernecks Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, IU Scott said: You don't play football with a calculator and doing do is hurting the game There is a reason analytics are in sports now. It is because over time, they work. Trying to look at one specific situation and making a claim about it doesn't work. The Colts got that 2 point conversion, and made up for missing the first. That's how that decision works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Big time sack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 And the danger zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Sack and fumble move the Bills all the way back to mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leathernecks Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 He lost a couple yards on that sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 How did we not get that fumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 If we let them covert this we don't deserve to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 No TO for the Colts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Probably will be inside the 15 yard line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, IU Scott said: Probably will be inside the 15 yard line Looks like 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Remembr Blankenship does not have a real strong leg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Missing that FG now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Rivers INT comin up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, rico said: Rivers INT comin up? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, Hoosierfan1901 said: Missing that FG now Well going for it in on 4th down and not kicking the fg is killing us. I guess some stat geek came up with some stupid formula saying it is better to go for it. This is a sport and people need to stop making it more difficult than it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, IU Scott said: Well going for it in on 4th down and not kicking the fg is killing us. I guess some stat geek came up with some stupid formula saying it is better to go for it. This is a sport and people need to stop making it more difficult than it really is. That’s what I meant, and the 33 yarder was a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Hynes just dropped a first down pass from the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Drops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Drop $6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 He’s down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Eh, nope that’s a fumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Fumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierfan1901 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 27-24 Bills Final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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