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It’s time... Fire Archie Miller


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Regarding the buyout, I am not going to go read the agreement, but normally there is (a) offset language and (b) an obligation for Archie to secure comparable employment for similar cash. Fred, being an attorney, surely handled that properly.  More than likely it’s not like IU writes a $10 M check.  To keep the math simple, imagine Archie makes $3 million now.  IU separates from him.  He lands somewhere else on a $2 million per year deal.  IU would then own him $1 M per year for the term agreed upon.  

Like I said, I haven’t read the agreement but this is contracts 101 kind of stuff.  I doubt that’s goofed up.  

I do think he gets another year in view of Covid unless the bottom falls out or somebody falls out of the sky that we want to jump on.  

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I’ve been in fandom HELL as an IU and UT fan the past several coaching hires in both programs. The similarities are so strikingly the same.

Anyway...

One thing I’m learning quickly is how much the long winded pipe dream coaching possibilities undercut both excitement for the new coach AND makes everything a sour start. Hard to get excited, puts pressure on coach, hurts feelings about recruiting, etc. 

Great arguments and “insider tips” seem to always be there for some HUGE hire that’s going to get everyone jacked and truth is it basically NEVER happens.

For UT it’s been the “Jon Gruden” theories which I’m sure have had some smoke. For IU “Billy Donovan” or “Brad Stevens.” It’s about a 1% chance of happening folks. Sorry to disappoint. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

in fact, it’s best if we realize that there’s probably an 80% chance we end up with someone with a similar resume to Archie, 15% chance for a fairly proven non championship level coach like Beilen and a 5% chance mixed up between some nightmare scenario or some world news breaking hire.

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55 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I think there's an important distinction between the coaches mentioned above, timing and money.

The way I see it.....

IF we have a change this off-season (which is not likely) we will need a bird in the hand. I'm not sure of the ethics behind it, but unofficial negotiations need to be made behind closed doors BEFORE Archie is fired. And the bird would have to be a bald freaking eagle. A name so big that the concern of buyouts and contracts go out the window because donors are ponying up the cash. Just throwing this our there as an example, but a name like Mussleman or Barnes (his contract at TN is yuge, FYI), although good coaches, are not going to be that eagle. Guys of this caliber will be around the following year when the buyout is less. Financially it just doesn't make sense to reach for these 'tier 2' guys after this season.

Tier 1 - Dream guys that'd warrant a coaching change (and buyout) after this season:
Stevens
Few
Wright
Bennet
Donovan (Coaching for the Bulls could possibly make you never want to coach in the NBA again....haha)
(TBH, I'm not sure even Beard makes this list)

Tier 2 - 2022 candidates
Everybody else.....

Conclusion, none of those tier 1 guys were coming 4 years ago so they're not going to come now. And let's face it, IU would be a step down for all those guys. Looks like we have another season of CAM. 

Beard is Tier 1 and probably the most realistic Tier 1 guy.

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2 hours ago, dbmhoosier said:

OSU fired Matta in June and that's worked out pretty well for them.  But Stevens isn't gonna happen.  It would take Coach K money to even get his interest. 

If Stevens is willing to come for Coach K money, we dang well better give it to him.  If we don't, Duke or Carolina eventually will.

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Just now, 5fouls said:

Stevens will be back in college at some point.  Iit may be 5 years from now.  Maybe 10.  But, if that's not at IU, then our administration has failed.

Why do you think that because from what I read he does not like the college life and he hates the recruiting game.  It was fine at Butler because you don't have to deal with as much at a smaller school

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3 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Why do you think that because from what I read he does not like the college life and he hates the recruiting game.  It was fine at Butler because you don't have to deal with as much at a smaller school

This is admittedly me assuming a lot, but I am sure Brad has realized there is more to the NBA game than just x's and o's. This dude dealt with Kyrie Irving FFS. Recruiting might not look as bad as it once did anymore.

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Greg Doyel destroyed Archie on DD show today. He said Archie Sucks. can't develop players, Al no better, Rob no better and Hunter was a Maserati coming out of HS but is now a studebaker. He did say Race has improved. Says the team has taken on the personality of the coach, up tight and scared to shoot.

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1 hour ago, HoosierAlice said:

Beard is Tier 1 and probably the most realistic Tier 1 guy.

I think we're just defining our tiers differently.

As @BobSaccamanno pointed out, we don't know exactly how much CAM's buyout will cost us in the end but let's just throw out that at the end of the day he will be owed $5 million of that. File it under: coaching expense.

So, If Beard is the tier 1 guy that is worth bringing in this off-season, thats still a $5 million expense IU has to deal with one way or another. Not to mention Beard's salary and any potential signing bonuses.

....OR you can wait a year, wipe out a lot of that $5 million, and go for Beard then. Who knows, saving that $5 million may give us more flexibility to entice him with a more lucrative contract. 

I don't think Beard's worth the $5 million bump to bring in next year, but that's just my opinion. I'm guessing boosters (because I'm betting that type of money would need to be raised) will think that as well. That said, boosters would raise that $$$ in a second for Stevens, thus why I view Stevens as 'tier 1' and Beard as 'tier 2' (I'll even put him on the top of my tier 2, but he's not in Stevens territory). Tier 1 is the administration moving hell and Earth to make a move in the off-season. Tier 2 is 'we really like Coach X, but we can wait a year for him and save a lot of money.' 

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5 minutes ago, Indykev said:

Greg Doyel destroyed Archie on DD show today. He said Archie Sucks. can't develop players, Al no better, Rob no better and Hunter was a Maserati coming out of HS but is now a studebaker. He did say Race has improved. Says the team has taken on the personality of the coach, up tight and scared to shoot.

I was going to post something similar because he wrote an article as well and Osterman wrote another article.  Once the media starts down this road and it will stir more fans reaction it will not end well for archie.

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13 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Stevens will be back in college at some point.  Iit may be 5 years from now.  Maybe 10.  But, if that's not at IU, then our administration has failed.

Scott is right.  No sane person would ever switch jobs just for a $4M a year pay increase.  That's just crazy talk.

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6 minutes ago, TheWatShot said:

Do you know why their jobs are secure? Because they didn't need 4 years to show everyone they were good. 

Because they are at places that don't have the expectations that IU has.  As long as they keep winning at a good pace they will be fine.  Bennett won a national championship at UVA and as long as he doesn't tank he will have a job for life.  Beard has done things at TT that no coach has ever done and got to a national championship game so it would take a lot for them to ever get rid of him.

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2 hours ago, BADGERVOL said:

in fact, it’s best if we realize that there’s probably an 80% chance we end up with someone with a similar resume to Archie, 15% chance for a fairly proven non championship level coach like Beilen and a 5% chance mixed up between some nightmare scenario or some world news breaking hire.

Not a big Seth Greenberg fan, but I recall when IU hired Archie he said, "Indiana fired Tom Crean and just hired...Tom Crean"

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2 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

Scott is right.  No sane person would ever switch jobs just for a $4M a year pay increase.  That's just crazy talk.

How do you know that money is the only thing that Strevens worries about.  For some money is not the deciding factor and once you make what he makes it might not matter if he makes 5 or 8 million.  I know you think money is the only thing to worry about but some don't think like you.  Yu are going off speculation and I am going by interviews and things I have read.

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9 minutes ago, Indykev said:

Greg Doyel destroyed Archie on DD show today. He said Archie Sucks. can't develop players, Al no better, Rob no better and Hunter was a Maserati coming out of HS but is now a studebaker. He did say Race has improved. Says the team has taken on the personality of the coach, up tight and scared to shoot.

Something just isn't right. I don't buy that Archie is a bad coach, or that he got to Bloomington and just forgot how to coach, but something is just off. It just doesn't seem to be working for him here.

I don't know. Having said that, 3 games against ranked teams have gone into overtime this year, and we've lost all 3 when we had a chance to win it at the end. Huge difference between 9-8 and 12-5 with wins at Florida State, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

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Just now, GrangerHoosier said:

Something just isn't right. I don't buy that Archie is a bad coach, or that he got to Bloomington and just forgot how to coach, but something is just off. It just doesn't seem to be working for him here.

I don't know. Having said that, 3 games against ranked teams have gone into overtime this year, and we've lost all 3 when we had a chance to win it at the end. Huge difference between 9-8 and 12-5 with wins at Florida State, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

A lot of people including me has said something just isn't right but we can't put our flinger on it.  There just seems to be a disconnect between Archie and the team.  When I watch other teams they look different on the court compared to us and a lot of it has to do with them playing with an edge.

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25 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I don't think Stevens comes back to college for any salary

I'd never say never, but Stevens has no reason to leave Boston anytime in the foreseeable future. I think he's there at least as long as Danny Ainge is there.

If he came to IU, the pressure and expectations of the fan base to be the savior of IU basketball would be unreal. He coaches one of the two most historic NBA franchises and has less pressure than he'd have in Bloomington.

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6 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

I'd never say never, but Stevens has no reason to leave Boston anytime in the foreseeable future. I think he's there at least as long as Danny Ainge is there.

If he came to IU, the pressure and expectations of the fan base to be the savior of IU basketball would be unreal. He coaches one of the two most historic NBA franchises and has less pressure than he'd have in Bloomington.

To be honest, I could see Stevens taking over for Ainge before I see him coming back to coach in college. 

Ainge has had health issues, though I don't see him leaving any time soon. But I could see Stevens taking over that role and staying the coach, while Mike Zarren (assistant GM and cap genius) handles the day-to-day. 

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35 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Stevens will be back in college at some point.  Iit may be 5 years from now.  Maybe 10.  But, if that's not at IU, then our administration has failed.

I disagree. He's already made $22mil on his 1st contract thru 2019, been extended to 2022 (in 2016), and extended again last year with no terms disclosed. I think he's more likely to retire than come back to college. If things don't work out with the Celtics, and he still wants to coach, he can get another job in the NBA. He's already been in the NBA one year longer than he was at Butler, and by the time he makes a move he'll be a decade plus away from the college game. Just don't see it.

7 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

I'd never say never, but Stevens has no reason to leave Boston anytime in the foreseeable future. I think he's there at least as long as Danny Ainge is there.

If he came to IU, the pressure and expectations of the fan base to be the savior of IU basketball would be unreal. He coaches one of the two most historic NBA franchises and has less pressure than he'd have in Bloomington.

I agree. I don't see him wanting any part of summer AAU, recruiting, or the pressure of being a "savior". 

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13 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

I'd never say never, but Stevens has no reason to leave Boston anytime in the foreseeable future. I think he's there at least as long as Danny Ainge is there.

If he came to IU, the pressure and expectations of the fan base to be the savior of IU basketball would be unreal. He coaches one of the two most historic NBA franchises and has less pressure than he'd have in Bloomington.

I think here in lies the overall issue. Very, very, few coaches actually want this job. "Lower tier" coaching jobs pay pretty well these days (millions over the lifetime of the deal) and have waaaaaaaaay less pressure. IU is a fishbowl inside a silo. Every fan is an expert and every expert as their opinion. I would wager Archie gets 2 more years unless he doesn't make the tourney this year or next. 

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56 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Because they are at places that don't have the expectations that IU has.  As long as they keep winning at a good pace they will be fine.  Bennett won a national championship at UVA and as long as he doesn't tank he will have a job for life.  Beard has done things at TT that no coach has ever done and got to a national championship game so it would take a lot for them to ever get rid of him.

Just guessing but The Boston Celtics would not be one. Especially if the Lakers win #18

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