AD Scott Dolson - What's the plan?

[Zuckerkorn]

49 minutes ago, Feathery said:

If I’m AD I would let this season play out. I’m keeping an eye on possible candidates and gauging their contract situation. I’m also asking donors how they are feeling about things.

.....

 

I'm confident Dolson will let this season play out.  As for the donors, I suspect he doesn't have to solicit their input 🤑

[Bustout]

22 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Oats was a hot name 2+ years ago. Not anymore.  He is fulfilling his promise right now at Bama. He isn’t a flash in the pan to me. 

Fair.  If I’m replacing Archie with him though, I have to be 100000% convinced.  MAC and SEC both suck and I want someone with more than two tournament wins.  
 

Not saying he can’t be a fabulous coach and the next Bob Knight, but if I’m Dolson, I need to see this years tourney, next season, and next year’s tourney to be absolute certain. 

[Bustout]

25 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I don't consider taking another job in the same professions to be 'quitting'.

I personally see it as quitting on the school and players he’s brought in if he doesn’t fulfill his contract.   IU is a destination job.  Pitt, Seton Hall and NC State are not. Alma Mater or not. 

[Feathery]

1 minute ago, Bustout said:

Fair.  If I’m replacing Archie with him though, I have to be 100000% convinced.  MAC and SEC both suck and I want someone with more than two tournament wins.  
 

Not saying he can’t be a fabulous coach and the next Bob Knight, but if I’m Dolson, I need to see this years tourney, next season, and next year’s tourney to be absolute certain. 

If you wait until after next years tourney, IU could miss out. Jobs like Duke, UNC, and maybe Kentucky could be open and are all better jobs than IU currently. 
 

Other than financial considerations, I see no reason why it takes an AD 5 years to make a determination on if a basketball coach is winning enough to keep his job. 

[Bustout]

27 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Agreed. But you never know. If he knows he is on the chopping block some people with double down on themselves and try to save their job. Others will bolt for a good opportunity elsewhere. 

I don’t think there is a chopping block today.  Next year in Feb, possibly.   But Archie will get next year. 

[Bustout]

1 minute ago, Feathery said:

If you wait until after next years tourney, IU could miss out. Jobs like Duke, UNC, and maybe Kentucky could be open and are all better jobs than IU currently. 
 

Other than financial considerations, I see no reason why it takes an AD 5 years to make a determination on if a basketball coach is winning enough to keep his job. 

There will be other hot names and other candidates. There will always be good candidates available for IU. 

[Cutter]

1 minute ago, Feathery said:

If you wait until after next years tourney, IU could miss out. Jobs like Duke, UNC, and maybe Kentucky could be open and are all better jobs than IU currently. 
 

Other than financial considerations, I see no reason why it takes an AD 5 years to make a determination on if a basketball coach is winning enough to keep his job. 

Most AD’s don’t if empowered to do their job without getting permission from others 

[Feathery]

Just now, Bustout said:

I personally see it as quitting on the school and players he’s brought in if he doesn’t fulfill his contract.   IU is a destination job.  Pitt, Seton Hall and NC State are not. Alma Mater or not. 

One theory is, if you get fired you may not get a job at a school as good as Seton Hall. Tom Crean won Big Ten titles and is at Georgia. Archie Miller hasn’t won anything at the power 5 level. He will be lucky to get a job at any power 5 school. He will go to the Mountain West or A10 level conference for his next coaching gig. 

[IU Scott]

1 hour ago, Feathery said:

If I’m AD I would let this season play out. I’m keeping an eye on possible candidates and gauging their contract situation. I’m also asking donors how they are feeling about things. 
 

team doesn’t make the NCAA’s and the money is there, fire Archie. There are 3 top candidates IMO, Stevens, Matta, and Oats. Make Stevens say no (twice according to 5fouls).  Then look at Matta or Oats. 
 

team makes the NCAA’s, then tell Archie he has to finish top 4 in conference and make the second weekend in 2022 or he will be gone after the 2022 season. Money no longer an issue. Again, look at Stevens, Matta, and Oats. 
 

Archie either improves or is out the door in a year or less. If Archie knows he is on the chopping block in a year, he may bolt on his own this April to avoid the stigma of being fired. 

Well if they are watching Alabama play right now they might not want to look at him.  Down 34-19 at Missouri with 5 to go in the half.

[Feathery]

Just now, Cutter said:

Most AD’s don’t if empowered to do their job without getting permission from others 

Not saying you are wrong bc your are definitely right that most AD’s don’t. However, top schools cut ties quickly when it’s clearly not working. UNC fired Daugherty after 3 years, Kentucky fired Gillespie after 2 years. They saw their program were in trouble and made a swift change. IU just stays with mediocrity for 20 years. 

[Feathery]

2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Well if they are watching Alabama play right now they might not want to look at him.  Down 34-19 at Missouri with 5 to go in the half.

Yup. Because a half explains everything. Bob Knight teams later some eggs too. 
 

edit: even if Bama loses they are still 3 games ahead of 2nd place in the SEC. 

[IU Scott]

36 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Oats was a hot name 2+ years ago. Not anymore.  He is fulfilling his promise right now at Bama. He isn’t a flash in the pan to me. 

Well Oats has only shown 2/3 of the season this year and that is not enough.  It showed that Alabama brought back one of the most experience teams in the country which Oats did not recruit.  He was 16-15 last year in his first year at Alabama so I need to see more than what he has done so far.

[Bustout]

6 minutes ago, Feathery said:

One theory is, if you get fired you may not get a job at a school as good as Seton Hall. Tom Crean won Big Ten titles and is at Georgia. Archie Miller hasn’t won anything at the power 5 level. He will be lucky to get a job at any power 5 school. He will go to the Mountain West or A10 level conference for his next coaching gig. 

Georgia is actually a great job. Big football school.  Every resource available.  ZERO pressure - all they care about is football.  Oh - and he’s making $3MM

[Feathery]

Just now, IU Scott said:

Well Oats has only shown 2/3 of the season this year and that is not enough.  It showed that Alabama brought back one of the most experience teams in the country which Oats did not recruit.  He was 16-15 last year in his first year at Alabama so I need to see more than what he has done so far.

That’s fair.
 

So 16-15 isn’t good enough? I ask because I’m look at Archies record at IU in 3.5 years winning 55% of his games and a losing record in conference 44%. 

[IU Scott]

Just now, Feathery said:

That’s fair.
 

So 16-15 isn’t good enough? I ask because I’m look at Archies record at IU in 3.5 years winning 55% of his games and a losing record in conference 44%. 

I didn't say it is good enough for Archie and if after next year he hasn't turned it around then it is time to move on.  All I am saying I wouldn't have Oats at the top of my list for the reasons I stated.  Also I can't stand his offensive philosophy of only 3's and layups

[Feathery]

1 minute ago, Bustout said:

Georgia is actually a great job. Big football school.  Every resource available.  ZERO pressure - all they care about is football.  Oh - and he’s making $3MM

Georgia is not a great job unless it’s football. Sure it pays well and no pressure. But you aren’t winning big at Georgia. It’s great if you just care about a paycheck but not actually winning anything. In my lifetime the only coach who did well there is Tubby. Outside of that they have been terrible. 

[Cutter]

6 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Not saying you are wrong bc your are definitely right that most AD’s don’t. However, top schools cut ties quickly when it’s clearly not working. UNC fired Daugherty after 3 years, Kentucky fired Gillespie after 2 years. They saw their program were in trouble and made a swift change. IU just stays with mediocrity for 20 years. 

I agree completely with what you are saying are willingness to accept the wait and see approach with our basketball program and giving failures the opportunity to continue rather than taking a attitude of getting things right as quickly as you can by finding the right coach and not giving failures roots to hold onto

[Feathery]

Just now, IU Scott said:

I didn't say it is good enough for Archie and if after next year he hasn't turned it around then it is time to move on.  All I am saying I wouldn't have Oats at the top of my list for the reasons I stated.  Also I can't stand his offensive philosophy of only 3's and layups

3’s and layups is modern basketball. Look at Golden State, 3’s and layups. It’s all statistic based. Midrange jumper isn’t considered a good shot because the make % goes down compared to a layup and it doesn’t count as much as a 3 point jump shot. Going to score more by stepping back and taking a 3 and hitting 35% compare to a mid range shot hitting 50%. Archie’s offense seems to be the opposite of this and it’s why we keep losing. 

[FW_Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Feathery said:

One theory is, if you get fired you may not get a job at a school as good as Seton Hall. Tom Crean won Big Ten titles and is at Georgia. Archie Miller hasn’t won anything at the power 5 level. He will be lucky to get a job at any power 5 school. He will go to the Mountain West or A10 level conference for his next coaching gig. 

I was actually just looking at John Groce’s record the other day, and it’s kind of interesting how closely his tenure with Illinois tracks with Archie’s tenure at IU thus far and how it’s shaping up going forward.

Groce had a better first year than Archie, their second year was almost exactly the same, and Archie’s third year was slightly better than Groce’s.  Groce’s fourth year was really bad, but Illinois brought him back for a fifth year even though it was clear he wasn’t the guy, then fired him after he only showed slight improvement in the fifth year.  I don’t think Archie’s on pace to have quite as bad of a fourth year as Groce did, but if we miss the tournament this year and TJD leaves, he’s on pretty much the same trajectory.

Interestingly enough, Groce went back to a midmajor and has done a pretty decent job.  I would think that would probably be the case for Archie as well — his system and the way he runs his program just doesn’t really seem well-suited for a major conference.

[Feathery]

1 minute ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I was actually just looking at John Groce’s record the other day, and it’s kind of interesting how closely his tenure with Illinois tracks with Archie’s tenure at IU thus far and how it’s shaping up going forward.

Groce had a better first year than Archie, their second year was almost exactly the same, and Archie’s third year was slightly better than Groce’s.  Groce’s fourth year was really bad, but Illinois brought him back for a fifth year even though it was clear he wasn’t the guy, then fired him after he only showed slight improvement in the fifth year.  I don’t think Archie’s on pace to have quite as bad of a fourth year as Groce did, but if we miss the tournament this year and TJD leaves, he’s on pretty much the same trajectory.

Interestingly enough, Groce went back to a midmajor and has done a pretty decent job.  I would think that would probably be the case for Archie as well — his system and the way he runs his program just doesn’t really seem well-suited for a major conference.

Fantastic comparison. I hadn’t thought of Groce in years. I felt he got a job based on a single tournament run. Which you see a lot of. I honestly value conference success over tournament success in looking at coaching candidates. Thanks for the comparison and I think you are spot on. 

[Bustout]

18 minutes ago, Feathery said:

Georgia is not a great job unless it’s football. Sure it pays well and no pressure. But you aren’t winning big at Georgia. It’s great if you just care about a paycheck but not actually winning anything. In my lifetime the only coach who did well there is Tubby. Outside of that they have been terrible. 

100% disagree. But to each their own. ZERO ZERO ZERO pressure, 3mm+/year, unlimited resources.  The main reason they may not be great is bc of their coach - not what they have to offer.  

[IU Scott]

22 minutes ago, Feathery said:

3’s and layups is modern basketball. Look at Golden State, 3’s and layups. It’s all statistic based. Midrange jumper isn’t considered a good shot because the make % goes down compared to a layup and it doesn’t count as much as a 3 point jump shot. Going to score more by stepping back and taking a 3 and hitting 35% compare to a mid range shot hitting 50%. Archie’s offense seems to be the opposite of this and it’s why we keep losing. 

I don't agree with that at all because any open shot is the best shot.  If it is the most efficient way to play then why is scoring and shooting% so far down.  It can work in the NBA where the players are so much better but for the majority of college basketball  it makes for an ugly game.  The thing is most people back in the day hit a lot more than 50% from the mid range because they practice it.

[BDB]

55 minutes ago, Bustout said:

There will be other hot names and other candidates. There will always be good candidates available for IU. 

There is 20 years of data that says otherwise.  

[Bustout]

2 minutes ago, BDB said:

There is 20 years of data that says otherwise.  

Or 20 years of just selecting a bad coach/person.  Sampson is a phenomenal coach. 

[Cutter]

48 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I didn't say it is good enough for Archie and if after next year he hasn't turned it around then it is time to move on.  All I am saying I wouldn't have Oats at the top of my list for the reasons I stated.  Also I can't stand his offensive philosophy of only 3's and layups

What makes you so sure he gets next year?