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Thoughts on Next Year's Roster


Purpose16

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I don’t see TJD returning. I don’t think this year has gone the way anyone wanted and no guarantees next year will be measurably better (sadly). I heard someone say you can make quite a bit of money playing overseas, so why not get out and start a professional career?  It’s not like we’re going to go from lower mid BIG to NC

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12 minutes ago, Bustout said:

Contrary to all of the Archie bashing, the potential rosters listed above look like B1G contenders.  All the more reason I think he’s here next year unless he leaves on his own, which I don’t see happening.    

Sounds like the summer of 2020 discussion.  We (IU fans) seem to over exaggerate the talent they have.

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1 minute ago, BADGERVOL said:

Serious question...how often is it that you see a team go from bottom of the conference to contending for a title in one year with the same roster just getting a year older?

maybe that happens a lot more than I can picture. 

Well. This year, I don’t think they are bottom of conference (not sure if that’s what you’re saying).  They are middle of the pack of a LOADED conference.   

Some of the top teams won’t have their guys back next year.  I understand they can be back with COVID, but some will move on.  That’s Iowa, Wisky, and ILL.   so, by attrition, they will move up.   O$U and Mich will be good again, but Livers may go pro.  
 

Archies model of get old and stay old will come to fruition next year. Next year is Judgment Day for him regardless.  
 

I know fans are pissed and frustrated that maybe IU hasn’t excelled at the rate we all wanted.   Mich and O$U for example.   But - I don’t think each situation was apples to apples, but I get after 4 years people want better.  
 

20 years ago in the B1G and most other conferences today, there are like 3-4 good teams.   That’s not the case today in the B1G. There are 10-12 any given year.  And teams like Nebraska and NW this year aren’t exactly bottom feeders.  They’re still tough games. 
 

To your question - if we hired a Coach K or PayPal Cal where you get eight five stars every class, yes you can move from bottom to top fast.  But each year is a reset.   This is not Archie’s blueprint.  
 

Now, as I’ve mentioned before and other have, Archie inherited stuff that has altered today’s roster in 2021 (ie - McKinley Wright).  
 

Finally, I think Archie really focused on kids from Indiana early on and maybe, just maybe, he passed on some other kids bc they weren’t from Indiana.  By hiring Kenya, he’s acknowledged his recruiting needs to pick up for the program.  To me, he’s realizing where he needs to get things and he’s open to adjusting.    

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19 minutes ago, BADGERVOL said:

Serious question...how often is it that you see a team go from bottom of the conference to contending for a title in one year with the same roster just getting a year older?

maybe that happens a lot more than I can picture. 

I am racking my brain to try to think of one...

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If Brunk and Trayce do come back it would be nice to redshirt Duncomb if he is up for it. Get a year of weight and strength training under him and then 4 years to contribute because I don’t see how he gets on the floor honestly with a front court of Geronimo, Hunter, Race, TJD, and Brunk.

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14 minutes ago, dgambill said:

If Brunk and Trayce do come back it would be nice to redshirt Duncomb if he is up for it. Get a year of weight and strength training under him and then 4 years to contribute because I don’t see how he gets on the floor honestly with a front court of Geronimo, Hunter, Race, TJD, and Brunk.

If Duncomb is healthy he plays next year on my team.

18 minutes ago, dgambill said:

 

 

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19 minutes ago, rico said:

If Duncomb is healthy he plays next year on my team.

 

I just think redshirting is so uncommon these days.  Most kids don't want to stay that long anyway.  I wouldn't expect him to have a big role next year, but I would think he could get increasing minutes at the 4 throughout the year.  

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I hope Kenya can work some magic for recruits yet this year. Archie has taken to long to show us meaningful improvement.

I think Leah looks very promising from the little I’ve seen. landers is going to be good needs a better shot lots of potential. Geronimo work in progress. Galloway to me is a big question mark. To me he seems to be a one horse pony. Drive to the basket and dump the ball off. I’ve noticed teams are waiting for him the try and pass it out when he drives. He needs to pull up and start knocking down shots. This will open up some of those early asst. he was getting. 
 

I don’t know much about Stewart, Gunn an Duncomb.

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1 hour ago, iufaninand said:

I don’t see TJD returning. I don’t think this year has gone the way anyone wanted and no guarantees next year will be measurably better (sadly). I heard someone say you can make quite a bit of money playing overseas, so why not get out and start a professional career?  It’s not like we’re going to go from lower mid BIG to NC

If he opts to play overseas he’s a moron. He has first round potential if he works on some things. Most guys once they go over seas aren’t coming back to the NBA so that would be a major mistake for him to make and I don’t see that happening. G-league maybe but overseas I can’t see. Just listen to some of the stories guys tell about playing overseas and TJD has it made at IU compared to that. 

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36 minutes ago, DC2345 said:

If he opts to play overseas he’s a moron. He has first round potential if he works on some things. Most guys once they go over seas aren’t coming back to the NBA so that would be a major mistake for him to make and I don’t see that happening. G-league maybe but overseas I can’t see. Just listen to some of the stories guys tell about playing overseas and TJD has it made at IU compared to that. 

On AJ Guyton podcast with DJ White they talked about playing over seas. I guess AJ finally got fed up with not getting paid a lot of the time.  DJ said he had dealt with same thing time to time.  I wouldn't ever go over there until my college eligibility was up and find out I can't make the NBA.

 

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2 hours ago, Bustout said:

Well. This year, I don’t think they are bottom of conference (not sure if that’s what you’re saying).  They are middle of the pack of a LOADED conference.   

Some of the top teams won’t have their guys back next year.  I understand they can be back with COVID, but some will move on.  That’s Iowa, Wisky, and ILL.   so, by attrition, they will move up.   O$U and Mich will be good again, but Livers may go pro.  
 

Archies model of get old and stay old will come to fruition next year. Next year is Judgment Day for him regardless.  
 

I know fans are pissed and frustrated that maybe IU hasn’t excelled at the rate we all wanted.   Mich and O$U for example.   But - I don’t think each situation was apples to apples, but I get after 4 years people want better.  
 

20 years ago in the B1G and most other conferences today, there are like 3-4 good teams.   That’s not the case today in the B1G. There are 10-12 any given year.  And teams like Nebraska and NW this year aren’t exactly bottom feeders.  They’re still tough games. 
 

To your question - if we hired a Coach K or PayPal Cal where you get eight five stars every class, yes you can move from bottom to top fast.  But each year is a reset.   This is not Archie’s blueprint.  
 

Now, as I’ve mentioned before and other have, Archie inherited stuff that has altered today’s roster in 2021 (ie - McKinley Wright).  
 

Finally, I think Archie really focused on kids from Indiana early on and maybe, just maybe, he passed on some other kids bc they weren’t from Indiana.  By hiring Kenya, he’s acknowledged his recruiting needs to pick up for the program.  To me, he’s realizing where he needs to get things and he’s open to adjusting.    

Thanks for the thoughtful response and to others. 👍🏻

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1 minute ago, Shooter said:

If TJD comes back, and Franklin continues his progression, next year's roster is pretty dang good. The only major issue I see is at the point - good teams have a good PG. (And you can make a reasonable argument that Lander will become that guy)

No doubt Lander is the future!

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1 hour ago, BADGERVOL said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response and to others. 👍🏻

You betcha.  Recruiting-wise, I have no clue if this is the case, but I sense for Archie early on it was a balancing act between getting good players, but also getting Indiana kids.  Schilling was on staff and they’ve gotten most Mr. Basketball.  
 

However - the results just aren’t there yet.   There a few variables to that equation, but I gather that Archie sees it as “OK - we’re now established within the state, we have to start getting kids from elsewhere and now, being here 4 years, sort of have the luxury of picking and choosing Indiana kids and going after studs” - enter Kenya.   
 

This will be the most important off-season for Archie.  As we’ve discussed, the cupboard definitely isn’t bare, but 7th-10th place finishes aren’t acceptable from Year 5 and on. 
 

Either way, both sides of this house will be happy at the end of next year ... either IU did well, had a good season and things start cooking for Archie and he’s extended or he’s let go.  

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5 hours ago, Purpose16 said:

Thanks, both for the kind welcome and the insight, IUFLA.  Hadn't thought of Brunk staying in terms of growth stunting, but it does make sense.  It just seems to me he doensn't have the option of turning pro, so if he's enjoying the college experience, he would come back ...but again, I do see your point.

Agree that Brunk won’t have the option of turning pro, if that means NBA, but if he is interested he might be able to make some overseas coin. Just wish him the best with whatever he decides to do.

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If TJD leaves that is out #1 weakness as we will only have Race and Duncomb to play the 5 spot.  If this happens we def need a transfer that can play the 5.  No way Brunk returns if so it'll be what like his 8th yr in college(exaggeration here but still).  You can survive with playing the likes of Hunter, Geronimo, etc as a stretch 4 should you get into foul trouble with bigs.  

 

I think next years roster will be better than this years roster.  Maybe call me crazy but I think if TJD stays or we can get a very good/solid transfer to fill his gap should he leave and add in Parker Stewart and the growth of our current freshman we are better.  Agree with many that we will still probably be in the 5th to 8th spot in terms of the Big Ten standings but our overall record as well as big ten record should be better and we SHOULD be a NCAA tourney team next year. 

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2 hours ago, dwtaylor1055 said:

If TJD leaves that is out #1 weakness as we will only have Race and Duncomb to play the 5 spot.  If this happens we def need a transfer that can play the 5.  No way Brunk returns if so it'll be what like his 8th yr in college(exaggeration here but still).  You can survive with playing the likes of Hunter, Geronimo, etc as a stretch 4 should you get into foul trouble with bigs.  

 

I think next years roster will be better than this years roster.  Maybe call me crazy but I think if TJD stays or we can get a very good/solid transfer to fill his gap should he leave and add in Parker Stewart and the growth of our current freshman we are better.  Agree with many that we will still probably be in the 5th to 8th spot in terms of the Big Ten standings but our overall record as well as big ten record should be better and we SHOULD be a NCAA tourney team next year. 

The only thing I'll disagree with is Brunk - I would love to have him back, especially if TJD leaves. 

And I think we should absolutely be competing for a conference title next season. No excuses. 

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If TJD leaves, we will have little or no room for error or bad luck.  He is 19+ and 9+.  I don't see IU as replacing that.  We will be very thin up front.

We need big jumps from our freshmen, and hopefully Stewart will give us some real fire power from guard.

In other words, there are lots of question marks.  Even if TJD returns, the question will be whether we can find a consistent offense.

 

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Is the overseas option even the same as in the past, what with covid and lockdowns in place?  I have no idea but that could be a consideration.

Excluding the main reason to jump to the NBA early ($$$), I've felt most of our early exits should have stayed for another year.  Trayce would be the least equipped to go pro, IMHO.  Also, I'd probably councel Joey to focus on his life after baketball - he's a bright kid and you just don't want to go the rest of your life with chronic back pain.

As for returning players it's really unusual that there are players who could come back with a bonus year of eligibility.  But remember that applies to all teams.

Finally, I try to avoid making predictions as I'm usually wrong.  However I've seen posters (minority) express optimism about next year's team & returning players who've also predicted 2, 3, or more players departing (NBA, portal, etc.) - that doesn't make much sense to me.

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1 hour ago, slojoe said:

If TJD leaves, we will have little or no room for error or bad luck.  He is 19+ and 9+.  I don't see IU as replacing that.  We will be very thin up front.

We need big jumps from our freshmen, and hopefully Stewart will give us some real fire power from guard.

In other words, there are lots of question marks.  Even if TJD returns, the question will be whether we can find a consistent offense.

 

If TJD leaves, agree it's a completely different conversation. We can not easily replace his production.

If he stays though, there's a lot of room for optimism. IU as currently constructed is a good, potentially great defensive team. The offensive questions revolve around 1) reliable PG play, 2) go-to perimeter scorer, and 3) consistent outside shooting. There are potential answers on the roster for each question (Lander, Franklin, Stewart/Hunter/Leal)

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I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we could replace TJD and be ok. I'm not saying we're better without him by any means, IU at its best would be with TJD coming back next year. 

But with that said, I've been pretty impressed with Race Thompson's touch around the rim when he gets post touches. He has that soft jump hook over either shoulder that has looked really nice. 

So if TJD does leave, I could see a scenario where Race has a "Juwan Morgan" like senior year. 

Archie would still have to go out and get another big because Race isn't a rim protector and doesn't have the size to defend the bigger centers, and you really want him at the 4. 

But I could see scenario where IU is better even if TJD leaves. I'd expect the guard play to be much better with Franklin continuing to improve, the freshmen getting better and the addition of Stewart. 

So if Race can make another leap and Archie can find a big on the transfer market, I could see IU being much improved even if TJD leaves. 

But again, I'm not saying i want to TJD to leave, quite the opposite. With TJD we are definitely better, not hoping to be better. 

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I think Franklin has only been about 70% since he came back.  I think he was playing at all B1G level before he got injured.  If Lander makes a jump,  I think he's all B1G, too.  So depends a lot on whether TJD comes back, but if not, as Gleas says we will have to pick up a rim protector.  The other option if TJD doesn't come back, we can't get rim protector would be to play 4 in and one out of offense and hope we are quick enough on D.

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3 hours ago, addictedtoIU said:

All I'm hoping is we get another year from TJD, but if I'm TJD, I would do my best to contribute to the team and also to get my numbers and eventually to put my name in the draft after this season.  

The issue isn't his numbers. He has some major flaws in his game he needs to show improvement on to get drafted. 

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