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Big 10 Finish Predictions


IUFLA

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12 hours ago, IUFLA said:

Just thought I'd see what the prevailing thought on the B1G season is...here's what I came up with...

Ohio State 

Purdue 

Indiana 

Michigan 

Maryland 

Northwestern

Illinois 

Michigan State 

Rutgers 

Wisconsin

Iowa 

Nebraska

Penn State

Minnesota 

Anybody else?

Nope.  You listed all the teams in the conference right there.  I'm proud of you.  

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16 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

Our schedule is looking better every day. I wouldn’t trade it for anybody else’s. 

If you assume the possibility of a split versus the top 7 teams you play twice, and a sweep vs the bottom 7, and the possibility of winning all 3 games you play at home vs teams you only play once, while only winning on the road vs the bottom 7 of the teams you only play once, you are correct... Indiana would have the most attractive schedule, while Maryland would have the most difficult...

I know that's a very unscientific way to look at it, but it seemed to be the best way for now, with all of the unknowns for each team...

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35 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

If you assume the possibility of a split versus the top 7 teams you play twice, and a sweep vs the bottom 7, and the possibility of winning all 3 games you play at home vs teams you only play once, while only winning on the road vs the bottom 7 of the teams you only play once, you are correct... Indiana would have the most attractive schedule, while Maryland would have the most difficult...

I know that's a very unscientific way to look at it, but it seemed to be the best way for now, with all of the unknowns for each team...

It’s definitely based on perception.

But I’d also like to add we are playing Iowa and MSU away in a perceived ‘down year’ for both teams. That is also good for the short term future as we’ll be rotating through those teams when they aren’t as dangerous and avoiding them on their home court in the following years. That said, even a rebuilding MSU team is tough to play in the Breslin Center. 

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22 hours ago, dbmhoosier said:

We match up well against PU imo.  Rob can guard Ivey as well as anyone and we have plenty of bigs to throw at them.

I don’t think Ivey had any issues with Rob (or any other Hoosier) guarding him last year. 
 

Plus, Rob won’t start so I wonder how many minutes he’d get against Ivey anyway?

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22 hours ago, HoosierDom said:

I didn't grow up an IU fan, so I don't have the ingrained Purdue hatred that a lot of people here have, but I still think they're overrated. I will be surprised if they compete for the BIG title. I think OSU and Michigan will be at the top. By tournament time MSU and IU will be right there with them, but both of us will lose a few winnable games early in the conference, so we won't have a shot at the regular season crown.

I agree with you on Illinois - I'd say they're a bubble team. They'll make it, but not by that much. Northwestern is more of a true bubble team and might not make it.

Curious to hear why you think they’re overrated?

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19 hours ago, TheWatShot said:

They'll be very good, but I think they and OSU were the two most overrated teams in the country last year. I picked both of them to lose the first weekend of the tournament and felt I was being a bit bold...then they both went and lost a round earlier. 

 

Purdue is going to get a ton of hype because of how much they return, which is significant in today's game, but also makes a lot of media members drool over them because the whole "get old and stay old" spiel makes them feel like it's the 1990's again. 

It was definitely an odd year. Going into the season, I think we were picked middle of the pack or maybe around 9th or 10th but obviously didn’t have a good tournament. Overall we had a better year than most people thought but I think I could agree that we probably weren’t worthy of a 4 seed. 

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24 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

I don’t think Ivey had any issues with Rob (or any other Hoosier) guarding him last year. 
 

Plus, Rob won’t start so I wonder how many minutes he’d get against Ivey anyway?

Rob will still play a lot unless Lander explodes. Defensively he’s valuable enough that certain match-ups will see him play more than others.

I’m high on Xavier Johnson though so a lot of it depends on how he performs since he’s supposed to be much more dynamic than Rob offensively.

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1 hour ago, Stlboiler23 said:

Curious to hear why you think they’re overrated?

I figured you would come out of the woodwork for this conversation.

If you look back at the results from last year - obviously the tournament, but there were signs before that - I think the conference as a whole was overrated. So, your success from last year isn't quite as impressive as some make it out to be, and therefore returning the guys from that team isn't as big of a deal as some make it out to be. I'm not suggesting you have a bad team, but I would drop them down 10 spots in the polls.

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It's going to be interesting to see how our new coach and retooled team perform this season.  With experienced transfers in Parker, Johnson,  Kopp, and Durr, the roster and lineups are completely different. These aren't green freshman we're talking about. Think about what Tucker has been able to do at MSU in football.

Our offense and defense will be completely different as well.  Better spacing, pushing the pace, and freeing up space inside for Trace will be huge.  We do need guys to hit at a much better rate from three, and also need some guys to create their own shots. I trust the new staff to develop our guys, and hopefully we see continued improvement throughout the year. The defense will finally guard the three point line instead of letting everyone have career days against us.

Something I haven't seen discussed is the impact of having a coach with the coaching status of Woody on the sidelines.  Other than Sampson,  I'm not sure we've had a coach who could influence the refs, especially at home.  Having a former NBA coach and Big Ten legend roaming the sidelines should be good for a call or two.  

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Purdue will be interesting.  Painter has done very well embracing the underdog role over the years.  He does a tremendous job getting lower ranked guys to embrace their role and work within his system. How will they perform as the hunted?

Will Ivey still embrace his role in the system,  or will he want to jack shots like Edward's did?  Will Williams be dominant on the block, or want to improve draft status by expanding his range consistently?  How will the highly ranked freshman perform, and how will they and their families accept their roles and minutes?  

Only time and games will tell on all of these questions.  Definitely not a sure thing either way.

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36 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

I figured you would come out of the woodwork for this conversation.

If you look back at the results from last year - obviously the tournament, but there were signs before that - I think the conference as a whole was overrated. So, your success from last year isn't quite as impressive as some make it out to be, and therefore returning the guys from that team isn't as big of a deal as some make it out to be. I'm not suggesting you have a bad team, but I would drop them down 10 spots in the polls.

I don’t disagree with the conference being overrated. But when you have arguably 2 of the top 10 players in the conference and then sprinkle in guys like Edey, Newman, TKR, and Furst, there’s a lot to like. Didn’t lose anybody from a solid team and add two top 50 guys at our weakest position from a year ago. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosierinbham said:

Purdue will be interesting.  Painter has done very well embracing the underdog role over the years.  He does a tremendous job getting lower ranked guys to embrace their role and work within his system. How will they perform as the hunted?

Will Ivey still embrace his role in the system,  or will he want to jack shots like Edward's did?  Will Williams be dominant on the block, or want to improve draft status by expanding his range consistently?  How will the highly ranked freshman perform, and how will they and their families accept their roles and minutes?  

Only time and games will tell on all of these questions.  Definitely not a sure thing either way.

A lot of really good questions here. I have thought the same thing especially about Ivey. I think last year he too often settled for not-great three point attempts when he’s nearly unstoppable at getting to the rim. I think he needs to pick his spots better on shooting the 3. The good news is that unlike Edwards who really had to jack shots his junior year because of the overall talent of the team, this team is much more well-rounded. 
 

With Williams, I think having Edey will be a good thing. If Williams starts to slack, Edey will take more of his minutes. Apparently Edey has been extremely solid this off-season and may even start tonight’s exhibition game. 

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So just for accuracy sake, here are the CBS Sports "experts" picks for last year...

No one had Michigan above 9th in the conference...I would imagine that was based on their 10-10 finish good for 9th place the year before, and not counting on the impacts of Smith and Brown, the maturation of Wagner, and the emergence of Dickinson...Remember, they had lost All B1G guard Zavier Simpson and a solid senior in Jon Teske...

And only Kyle Boone had Purdue 5th...Most had them at the 8 spot...

IU is the "wildcard" I think this year with all of the new, experienced faces...We could be this years' Michigan...

 

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Found this interesting on the Sports Reference website

Illinois  63.4% of minutes played and 60.0% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster               
Indiana  64.2% of minutes played and 62.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Iowa  53.3% of minutes played and 39.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Maryland  45.3% of minutes played and 48.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                     
Michigan 40.4% of minutes played and 40.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Michigan State 47.7% of minutes played and 45.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Minnesota  14.8% of minutes played and 8.9% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster      
Nebraska 50.5% of minutes played and 49.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster           
Northwestern 73.7% of minutes played and 78.1% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Ohio State  64.5% of minutes played and 64.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster  
Penn State 45.4% of minutes played and 46.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Purdue  90.9% of minutes played and 94.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                   
Rutgers 61.0% of minutes played and 55.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                       
Wisconsin  42.2% of minutes played and 33.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster

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7 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Found this interesting on the Sports Reference website

Illinois  63.4% of minutes played and 60.0% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster               
Indiana  64.2% of minutes played and 62.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Iowa  53.3% of minutes played and 39.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Maryland  45.3% of minutes played and 48.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                     
Michigan 40.4% of minutes played and 40.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Michigan State 47.7% of minutes played and 45.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Minnesota  14.8% of minutes played and 8.9% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster      
Nebraska 50.5% of minutes played and 49.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster           
Northwestern 73.7% of minutes played and 78.1% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Ohio State  64.5% of minutes played and 64.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster  
Penn State 45.4% of minutes played and 46.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Purdue  90.9% of minutes played and 94.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                   
Rutgers 61.0% of minutes played and 55.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                       
Wisconsin  42.2% of minutes played and 33.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster

Interesting that we return a lot and bring in a lot of new help.  

Hard hard to deny purdue's floor being less than third in conference. I think it's delusional to say otherwise.

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1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Found this interesting on the Sports Reference website

Illinois  63.4% of minutes played and 60.0% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster               
Indiana  64.2% of minutes played and 62.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Iowa  53.3% of minutes played and 39.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Maryland  45.3% of minutes played and 48.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                     
Michigan 40.4% of minutes played and 40.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Michigan State 47.7% of minutes played and 45.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster        
Minnesota  14.8% of minutes played and 8.9% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster      
Nebraska 50.5% of minutes played and 49.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster           
Northwestern 73.7% of minutes played and 78.1% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster             
Ohio State  64.5% of minutes played and 64.8% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster  
Penn State 45.4% of minutes played and 46.7% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster            
Purdue  90.9% of minutes played and 94.6% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                   
Rutgers 61.0% of minutes played and 55.3% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster                       
Wisconsin  42.2% of minutes played and 33.5% of scoring return from 2020-21 roster

Minnesota…

 

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