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Louisiana Post Game Thread


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20 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

This article is 4 years old but has data on a long list of former champs.  Kembas Uconn was the outlier.  Everyone else had adj o and d inside top 19.  

https://www.vuhoops.com/villanova-basketball/2018/2/8/16986218/villanova-basketball-what-does-kenpom-tell-us-about-past-champions

New article.  https://vendettasportsmedia.com/using-kenpom-predict-2021-22-ncaa-basketball-champion/

That’s end of the year ranks. Which as I stated is a faulty way to look at it since winning 6 games is going to naturally raise your Kenpom ranks 

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1 hour ago, NotIThatLives said:

Its the best we have and a really good indicator of things.  Not much else to discuss about that.  

You can’t use a statistic based on data after an event to then predict that event. 
 

10 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Who was ranked outside of the top 25 in both coming into the tourney?

I can’t remember all of them off the top of my head. But Duke was in the 50s in D at the start of the 2015 tourney. 
 

When I looked it up all of them started the tourney with 1 stat in top 25.  So thats the real key 

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4 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

You can’t use a statistic based on data after an event to then predict that event. 
 

I can’t remember all of them off the top of my head. But Duke was in the 50s in D at the start of the 2015 tourney. 
 

When I looked it up all of them started the tourney with 1 stat in top 25.  So thats the real key 

Efficiency should go up towards the end of the season.  The game slows down in the tourney.  Each team that survives is usually playing at their peak.  6 out of 40 games is not generally going to massively sway 99.9% of teams numbers.  

If you want to pay the full kenpom script and show more than one outlier than off the top of your head knock yourself out.  Im not here to argue about this.  Not much else to be said.  

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14 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Efficiency should go up towards the end of the season.  The game slows down in the tourney.  Each team that survives is usually playing at their peak.  6 out of 40 games is not generally going to massively sway 99.9% of teams numbers.  

If you want to pay the full kenpom script and show more than one outlier than off the top of your head knock yourself out.  Im not here to argue about this.  Not much else to be said.  

Kenpom pre-tourney ranks for ncaa champs since 2010. All but 2011 and 2014 Uconn were top 10 in offense or defense, less than half were top 20 in both.

2010 Duke - AdjO: 4; AdjD: 5

2011 Connecticut - AdjO: 21; AdjD: 27

2012 Kentucky - AdjO: 2; AdjD: 6

2013 Louisville - AdjO: 17; AdjD: 1

2014 Connecticut - AdjO: 57; AdjD: 12

2015 Duke - AdjO: 3; AdjD: 37

2016 Villanova - AdjO: 15; AdjD: 7

2017 North Carolina - AdjO: 4; AdjD: 25

2018 Villanova - AdjO: 1; AdjD: 22

2019 Virginia - AdjO: 2; AdjD: 5

2021 Baylor - AdjO: 3; AdjD: 44

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42 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Efficiency should go up towards the end of the season.  The game slows down in the tourney.  Each team that survives is usually playing at their peak.  6 out of 40 games is not generally going to massively sway 99.9% of teams numbers.  

If you want to pay the full kenpom script and show more than one outlier than off the top of your head knock yourself out.  Im not here to argue about this.  Not much else to be said.  

Kenpom weights for more recent games.  So yes 6 games will massively skew your Kenpom ranking if they are your last 6 games 

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23 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

On the rebounding piece some of you are overly alarmed about...

Their offensive rebound percentage was in the mid 30s. That's good, but not nearly as jarring as 21 offensive rebounds.

When you think about the fact that Trayce, Race, and Jordan each played about 1/2 of the game and think about how bad some of those misses are, the numbers were somewhat inevitable. The only thing I am really perturbed by with regards to rebounding is Durr.

I know it's early, but so far I am unimpressed by him.  

Durr stood out to me as well, in a "one of these things is not like the others" kind of way.  It was like watching a Clydesdale running in a field of Thoroughbreds.

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1 hour ago, Kdug said:

Kenpom pre-tourney ranks for ncaa champs since 2010. All but 2011 and 2014 Uconn were top 10 in offense or defense, less than half were top 20 in both.

2010 Duke - AdjO: 4; AdjD: 5

2011 Connecticut - AdjO: 21; AdjD: 27

2012 Kentucky - AdjO: 2; AdjD: 6

2013 Louisville - AdjO: 17; AdjD: 1

2014 Connecticut - AdjO: 57; AdjD: 12

2015 Duke - AdjO: 3; AdjD: 37

2016 Villanova - AdjO: 15; AdjD: 7

2017 North Carolina - AdjO: 4; AdjD: 25

2018 Villanova - AdjO: 1; AdjD: 22

2019 Virginia - AdjO: 2; AdjD: 5

2021 Baylor - AdjO: 3; AdjD: 44

Thank you.  Thats awesome info.  Speaks to peaking at the right time and hitting on all cylinders.  And I'm guessing the quality and style of play.  

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45 minutes ago, Muddy River said:

Durr stood out to me as well, in a "one of these things is not like the others" kind of way.  It was like watching a Clydesdale running in a field of Thoroughbreds.

Really Trayce needs to be playing 35 minutes a game anyways.  But nothing wrong with getting the big man some minutes he's also coming off of injury I think they said he only practice about six times

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