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Indiana's Defense


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I think we've all noticed that this is a different team defensively, and most of us are very please with the results.  I thought it might be interesting to do a comparison to what we've seen in recent history.  Looking specifically at Defensive rating by player (last column). 

Granted, this season is only 4 games old, and the schedule will get tougher come conference play, but my intent is to look at it a handful of times throughout the season.  I think the results at the end of the year will be eye-popping.

I know some of you aren't advanced metrics guys, but they are representative of reality when the sample size is large enough.

Year 1 under Woody

image.png.c1dc0a0cc6bd8eb56b83c5f4da296a19.png

Archie's last season

image.png.4fd46cb3472c2cf684294c1eaaa4f84b.png

Crean's last season

image.png.2bb591804c0f3c178c5827faca48624f.png

 

 

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47 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I think we've all noticed that this is a different team defensively, and most of us are very please with the results.  I thought it might be interesting to do a comparison to what we've seen in recent history.  Looking specifically at Defensive rating by player (last column). 

Granted, this season is only 4 games old, and the schedule will get tougher come conference play, but my intent is to look at it a handful of times throughout the season.  I think the results at the end of the year will be eye-popping.

I know some of you aren't advanced metrics guys, but they are representative of reality when the sample size is large enough.

Year 1 under Woody

image.png.c1dc0a0cc6bd8eb56b83c5f4da296a19.png

Archie's last season

image.png.4fd46cb3472c2cf684294c1eaaa4f84b.png

Crean's last season

image.png.2bb591804c0f3c178c5827faca48624f.png

 

 

Childress is a beast lockdown defender

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52 minutes ago, southsidehoosier said:

66D3B504-0219-4CCD-9D95-E993B49BCFDC.gif
 

Is it out of 100 or 127.9 like QB passer rating.

Basically, 100 is the baseline.  The lower the better.  Your score represents how many points the opposing team would score per 100 possessions you are on the floor.  So, Childress aside, this means that Race has been our most effective defender, and Trayce is 2nd.  

It's a reliable stat.  All you need to do is look at Crean's last year.  OG was our best defender among regulars (we knew that) and Blackmon and Newkirk were awful (we knew that as well). 

Now, we're not going to see those extremely low numbers from this year's team once the schedule toughens up, but I think there is a good chance we'll have more guys under 100 than over.  That would mean we're a good defensive team.  

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4 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I think we've all noticed that this is a different team defensively, and most of us are very please with the results.  I thought it might be interesting to do a comparison to what we've seen in recent history.  Looking specifically at Defensive rating by player (last column). 

Granted, this season is only 4 games old, and the schedule will get tougher come conference play, but my intent is to look at it a handful of times throughout the season.  I think the results at the end of the year will be eye-popping.

I know some of you aren't advanced metrics guys, but they are representative of reality when the sample size is large enough.

Year 1 under Woody

image.png.c1dc0a0cc6bd8eb56b83c5f4da296a19.png

Archie's last season

image.png.4fd46cb3472c2cf684294c1eaaa4f84b.png

Crean's last season

image.png.2bb591804c0f3c178c5827faca48624f.png

 

 

Hard to ignore that Phinisee is behind Lander in both sets of stats they appear in. 
 

Aside from the fact that this season is a really small sample size, there are other reasons for that. 
 

All the same, I hypothesize that Rob’s style of play brings everyone else down. While he may be a better individual defender he plays in a very disengaging way and that doesn’t always just impact offense. When guys stand around watching someone pound the air out of the ball without purpose it’s not too far out there to think the team defense suffers from the team becoming disengaged. 

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6 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Hard to ignore that Phinisee is behind Lander in both sets of stats they appear in. 
 

Aside from the fact that this season is a really small sample size, there are other reasons for that. 
 

All the same, I hypothesize that Rob’s style of play brings everyone else down. While he may be a better individual defender he plays in a very disengaging way and that doesn’t always just impact offense. When guys stand around watching someone pound the air out of the ball without purpose it’s not too far out there to think the team defense suffers from the team becoming disengaged. 

His DRtg is the lowest of any starter, and man that ORtg of Phinisee and Durr. 🤦‍♂️

I am a fan of Robs and would love to see him put it all together, but it is year four and just don't think it is going to happen.

Edited by Hoosier51
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TJD is averaging 3.6 blocks a game. Seems like it’s been closer to 10. Interestingly enough our next opponent’s guy leads the nation right now at 6. 
 

CMW is rightfully getting a lot of the young guys minutes right now. Just think, TJD and Race’s minutes are bound to go up as the comp gets better, and in theory might even further improve upon the overall team D numbers. 

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1 hour ago, IUKane21 said:

TJD is averaging 3.6 blocks a game. Seems like it’s been closer to 10. Interestingly enough our next opponent’s guy leads the nation right now at 6. 
 

CMW is rightfully getting a lot of the young guys minutes right now. Just think, TJD and Race’s minutes are bound to go up as the comp gets better, and in theory might even further improve upon the overall team D numbers. 

I think you're right IF...Woody can keep both of them fresh, so they don't tire and start getting into foul trouble. Which mean Durr, Geronimo need to step up their games for 2-5 minutes per half to give Race & Trayce a nice blow (assuming it's timed around a media time out)

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These stats will be interesting as the season progresses but it is way too premature, as pointed out above, to compare Woodys season-to-date stats vs Archie and Crean full seasons.  To be fair the Archie and Crean stats include complete Big Ten seasons while Woodys only consist of 5 home games with 3 of the teams being marshmallow, cupcake pushovers.  That being said, the defense looks terrific and I will be stunned if the full season Woody numbers aren’t better than the Crean and Archie seasons listed above.

In regards to Rob vs KL I agree that Rob has not progressed, still pounds the ball into the floor, and that KL may be our future, but at this point their comparative stats are apples and oranges. KL played a total of 7 minutes against our 2 toughest opponents (EMU and St John’s) while Rob did not play at all against the two easiest opponents (LouL and Jackson State). The stats will “reveal the truth” as the season progresses but at this point Rob and KL have essentially faced completely different teams.

EDIT: PS, Rob is 4-16 from the field…oof

Edited by IU878176
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10 hours ago, IU878176 said:

These stats will be interesting as the season progresses but it is way too premature, as pointed out above, to compare Woodys season-to-date stats vs Archie and Crean full seasons.  To be fair the Archie and Crean stats include complete Big Ten seasons while Woodys only consist of 5 home games with 3 of the teams being marshmallow, cupcake pushovers.  That being said, the defense looks terrific and I will be stunned if the full season Woody numbers aren’t better than the Crean and Archie seasons listed above.

In regards to Rob vs KL I agree that Rob has not progressed, still pounds the ball into the floor, and that KL may be our future, but at this point their comparative stats are apples and oranges. KL played a total of 7 minutes against our 2 toughest opponents (EMU and St John’s) while Rob did not play at all against the two easiest opponents (LouL and Jackson State). The stats will “reveal the truth” as the season progresses but at this point Rob and KL have essentially faced completely different teams.

EDIT: PS, Rob is 4-16 from the field…oof

All games are meaningful.  Big Ten results aside, do you think our stats would be this good if we would have lost to someone like, oh, Fort Wayne?  

Sure, the schedule gets tougher and the numbers will change.  But, I doubt there was a single game under Crean or Miller that was as good defensively as this opening 5 game stretch has been for Woody.

As far as Phin vs. Lander, Jackson State is not included in the original post.  But, if you want to see a more balanced comparison of 'like' opponents, look at last year's stats in the original post.  Lander 'wins' the comparison over a full season. 

I'm not saying that Lander is, or isn't, a better defender.  But maybe, based on this metrics, the gap isn't as wide as the chatter makes it out to be.

Edited by 5fouls
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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

All games are meaningful.  Big Ten results aside, do you think our stats would be this good if we would have lost to someone like, oh, Fort Wayne?  

Sure, the schedule gets tougher and the numbers will change.  But, I doubt there was a single game under Crean or Miller that was as good defensively as this opening 5 game stretch has been for Woody.

I said that the D looks much better to me, than in the past, and that I will be stunned if Woodys full year numbers aren’t better than Archie’s and Creans last years.  While I agree with you that all games are “meaningful” there is no way that Woodys 5 home games stats are a good comparison to a full season that includes BT road games.

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

As far as Phin vs. Lander, Jackson State is not included in the original post.  But, if you want to see a more balanced comparison of 'like' opponents, look at last year's stats in the original post.  Lander 'wins' the comparison over a full season. 

I

Last year Lander barely played in half of the BT games so I don’t think that is a good comparison either. Taking stats out of the equation, and who played against which teams, Lander looked overmatched/lost on D last year but is looking much better this year which is, of course, a really good sign/trajectory.  His pace/vision/speed is fun to watch and he will be firmly in the rotation if his D continues to improve, he hits some shots and cuts down on TO’s. He is young with a lot of upside.

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5 minutes ago, IU878176 said:

Last year Lander barely played in half of the BT games so I don’t think that is a good comparison either. Taking stats out of the equation, and who played against which teams, Lander looked overmatched/lost on D last year but is looking much better this year which is, of course, a really good sign/trajectory.  His pace/vision/speed is fun to watch and he will be firmly in the rotation if his D continues to improve, he hits some shots and cuts down on TO’s. He is young with a lot of upside.

Based on the graphic in the OP, Lander played in 26 games, Phinisee 27.  Granted, Phin play 3X the number of minutes,   But, I always considered Lander's shortcomings to be more evident on the offensive side of the ball.  Shooting, decision making, etc.

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30 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Based on the graphic in the OP, Lander played in 26 games, Phinisee 27.  Granted, Phin play 3X the number of minutes,   But, I always considered Lander's shortcomings to be more evident on the offensive side of the ball.  Shooting, decision making, etc.

Phin played 3 times as many minutes (as you point out) and a disproportionate amount of KL’s minutes were mop-up minutes. I’m not making the point to disparage KL but just pointing out that the comparative stats aren’t a good measurement.

At the risk of sounding like one of your ex-wives…I disagree about KL’s D. Defensively KL had a very difficult time staying in front of guys last year but has greatly improved this year.

Edited by IU878176
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3 minutes ago, IU878176 said:

At the risk of sounding like one of your ex-wives…I disagree. Defensively KL had a very difficult time staying in front of guys last year but has greatly improved this year.

If you wanted to sound like one of my ex-wives, your post would have started with "You're such an @shhole".  :coffee:

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Here are the stats after 6 games.  The original post was after 4 games.  I am surprised to see that Rob's number actually changed slightly even though he did not play.  Same with Logan.  That would indicate that each game is not considered stand-alone.  So, how we played 'D' against Louisiana, for example, must have some meaning beyond that single game.  

image.png.206af809456cd3a504b84b9342fa87b8.png

Edited by 5fouls
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