Next years thoughts and concens

[KoB2011]

9 minutes ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

t 07:08 PM

There have been several threads talking about next year. In none that I have read has there been any mention of the current players, especially the freshmen, improving, and I think that is discounting a lot.

Many of the talking heads discuss how many kids make a big jump from their first year to their second. I think that we'll see that especially with Josh and probably with Al and Moore. A full offseason with the strength coach will help immensely, imo.

This year is a transition year. Next season I anticipate that the team will feel much more comfortable with CAM's systems and will play freely vs having to think so much.

 I am optimistic that the entire team will improve with another year with this coaching staff. Archie is just getting started. Good stuff is in the program's future 

•  

Great post.  I'd add that guys will know what they are doing going into the offseason which should lead to bigger improvements than we'll see this year.  They'll know the system and can just work on their game this summer. 

[cybergates]

5 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Assume our roster for next season is what we can see as of today.  No transfers.  No additional signees.  Are we really that much better than this year, if at all.  It seems to me that we are expecting the freshmen to be a significant upgrade over our seniors.  But we're overlooking one important factor.  They are freshmen.

We have every reason to be excited about Phinisee.  But, he'll be a freshman,  Guess what most freshmen point guards do.  They turn the ball over more often than experienced floor leaders.  They also tend to struggle on the defensive end.

Thompson, Anderson, & Hunter.  Will any of then be able to consistently hit from the outside?  Will any of them show enough as a freshman to become the team leader as a Sophomore, after Morgan graduates?    I ask because, other than possibly Justin Smith, does anyone feel there is a player on the current roster that is likely to be able to do that?  I don't see it.

Will Davis, Moore, or Forrester be able to give us 40 consistent minutes from the post?  How would a big body being on the floor on a regular basis impact what Morgan is giving us now (since Davis went down)? 

Frankly, without an additional player yet to be named, whether it be Romeo or a graduate transfer, I see many of the same issues on next year's roster as I see on this one.  

• Inconsistent guard play (Green will likely never be consistent, and Durham likely will never be able to shoot)
• Lack of  3 point shooting (this almost has to come from someone not currently projected to be on the roster).  Even if we should land Romeo, who would step up and be the secondary 3 point threat.  A team needs more than one. And, would all the 3 point shooters be freshmen?  Freshmen tend get tired legs about halfway through the conference season. 

Tell me what I'm missing.  Will the fact that the freshmen will be 'Archie's guys' make that much of a difference?  Or, is it fools gold to think that a group of freshmen will automatically cure all ills?  Are we destined for another disappointing season next year? 

As a whole, I'll take the development of the returning players and Thompson, Anderson, Hunter, Phinisee, and Forrester over the loss of Hartman (oft-injured), Johnson (inconsistent), Priller (doesn't play/contribute), Newkirk (inconsistent and can't see Phinisee even as a freshman making worse mistakes), McSwain (limited value below that of Thompson, Anderson, Hunter and Forrester IMO) every time.

Freshman or not doesn't change the fact that the seniors we are losing aren't playing like seniors (ie Purdues's seniors) or playing at all (Priller time). So I don't feel like we are losing much other than RoJo who should be a solid contributor off the bench type not your second best player. 

As you point out, the reliance on freshman and several sophomores lack of experience is a concern and the lack of 3pt shooting could still be an issue.

I think Phinisee will be the leader you're looking for after Morgan graduates instead of Thompson, Anderson or Hunter as you suggest. Also, it's not like anyone saw Morgan as a leader in any seasons prior to this or even at the beginning of this season before he broke out, most pegged Hartman as the leader, a few suggest RoJo. 

[cohete15]

3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Assume our roster for next season is what we can see as of today.  No transfers.  No additional signees.  Are we really that much better than this year, if at all.  It seems to me that we are expecting the freshmen to be a significant upgrade over our seniors.  But we're overlooking one important factor.  They are freshmen.

We have every reason to be excited about Phinisee.  But, he'll be a freshman,  Guess what most freshmen point guards do.  They turn the ball over more often than experienced floor leaders.  They also tend to struggle on the defensive end.

Thompson, Anderson, & Hunter.  Will any of then be able to consistently hit from the outside?  Will any of them show enough as a freshman to become the team leader as a Sophomore, after Morgan graduates?    I ask because, other than possibly Justin Smith, does anyone feel there is a player on the current roster that is likely to be able to do that?  I don't see it.

Will Davis, Moore, or Forrester be able to give us 40 consistent minutes from the post?  How would a big body being on the floor on a regular basis impact what Morgan is giving us now (since Davis went down)? 

Frankly, without an additional player yet to be named, whether it be Romeo or a graduate transfer, I see many of the same issues on next year's roster as I see on this one.  

• Inconsistent guard play (Green will likely never be consistent, and Durham likely will never be able to shoot)
• Lack of  3 point shooting (this almost has to come from someone not currently projected to be on the roster).  Even if we should land Romeo, who would step up and be the secondary 3 point threat.  A team needs more than one. And, would all the 3 point shooters be freshmen?  Freshmen tend get tired legs about halfway through the conference season. 

Tell me what I'm missing.  Will the fact that the freshmen will be 'Archie's guys' make that much of a difference?  Or, is it fools gold to think that a group of freshmen will automatically cure all ills?  Are we destined for another disappointing season next year? 

I’ve had the same concerns, however, I fully expect a heavy dose of Morgan, Davis and Smith. We’ve seen Smith develop this year. I think we see a big jump from him (more shooting, stronger with the ball leading to more finishes). Right now, we are just a heavy dose of Morgan, with some RoJo mixed in. Almost nothing else.

One guy I won’t sleep on is McRoberts. As a senior, who has seemed to embrace IU, we have seen him get more comfortable...like his growing confidence on offense...took pull-up J yesterday and knocked it down. The open 3’s he takes are big. Yesterday he received a pass just inside the arc. He was open, but realized he was a couple feet inside. He tried to step back behind the line, but never got there. He’s a smart kid, and I think he realizes we need him to provide some offense. I can see him in an expanded role we kind of expected from Collin this year. 

We can only go up at PG. 

[KoB2011]

10 minutes ago, cybergates said:

As a whole, I'll take the development of the returning players and Thompson, Anderson, Hunter, Phinisee, and Forrester over the loss of Hartman (oft-injured), Johnson (inconsistent), Priller (doesn't play/contribute), Newkirk (inconsistent and can't see Phinisee even as a freshman making worse mistakes), McSwain (limited value below that of Thompson, Anderson, Hunter and Forrester IMO) every time.

Freshman or not doesn't change the fact that the seniors we are losing aren't playing like seniors (ie Purdues's seniors) or playing at all (Priller time). So I don't feel like we are losing much other than RoJo who should be a solid contributor off the bench type not your second best player. 

As you point out, the reliance on freshman and several sophomores lack of experience is a concern and the lack of 3pt shooting could still be an issue.

I think Phinisee will be the leader you're looking for after Morgan graduates instead of Thompson, Anderson or Hunter as you suggest. Also, it's not like anyone saw Morgan as a leader in any seasons prior to this or even at the beginning of this season before he broke out, most pegged Hartman as the leader, a few suggest RoJo. 

This is a bit hard on Rob, but otherwise spot on.  There aren't many teams in America that would bring him off the bench.  He's a really good defender and inconsistent or not, he scores 15 PPG while guarding the other teams best player.  

[cohete15]

8 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

This is a bit hard on Rob, but otherwise spot on.  There aren't many teams in America that would bring him off the bench.  He's a really good defender and inconsistent or not, he scores 15 PPG while guarding the other teams best player.  

Yea, I was going to add in my post that we are going to miss his defense more than anything. 

[cybergates]

14 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

This is a bit hard on Rob, but otherwise spot on.  There aren't many teams in America that would bring him off the bench.  He's a really good defender and inconsistent or not, he scores 15 PPG while guarding the other teams best player.  

 

5 minutes ago, cohete15 said:

Yea, I was going to add in my post that we are going to miss his defense more than anything. 

Good points. I wasn't trying to be hard on Rob and didn't give him his fair due on the defensive end and I should remove "off the bench" from my previous post. His widely inconsistent shooting nights over the past few seasons must have got to me. He played a great game on Sunday, just wish his last couple of mins (bad layup attempt and turnover) went the other way.

[tdhoosier]

5 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

This is a bit hard on Rob, but otherwise spot on.  There aren't many teams in America that would bring him off the bench.  He's a really good defender and inconsistent or not, he scores 15 PPG while guarding the other teams best player.  

Agree with this. He's a role playing starter on most teams. Dependable defense (for the most part) and effective as a 3rd option.  

The obvious problem, which many have brought up, is our PG. I'm pretty sure Josh or Green would start for any competitive major conference team. 

Our front court actually looks really good next year. I don't know if we can count on Phinesse bringing that 'comfort level' to our back court (at least not early on), so it all falls on Green unless Al makes a huge jump. It's also this reason why I don't think Green will transfer - he'll get his playing time because at this point he's an inconvenient necessity. 

BUT, that said, I really think that Green can turn the corner. He kind of reminds me of Verdell Jones, maddening in his first 2 years and then slowly started to settle in as an upper class-man. He has too much potential for Archie to give up on. The skills are there, he just tries to do too much - this is something that is fixable. Honestly, it looks like he's still playing Crean ball when the rest of the team has adapted to Archie ball. 

[Zuckerkorn]

I agree with a lot posted here.  I think we have two wild cards in Race & Vijay.  Thompson will have had a full year to practice and learn in the system which could prove to be a large advantage for a freshman.  Blackmon may be able to provide some off the bench play that we don't have currently.

[KoB2011]

8 minutes ago, Zuckerkorn said:

I agree with a lot posted here.  I think we have two wild cards in Race & Vijay.  Thompson will have had a full year to practice and learn in the system which could prove to be a large advantage for a freshman.  Blackmon may be able to provide some off the bench play that we don't have currently.

Interesting point about Vijay.  You'd think at the least he could come in and be a shooter, right? 

[NotIThatLives]

36 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Interesting point about Vijay.  You'd think at the least he could come in and be a shooter, right? 

Did he have to sit out a year coming from an NAIA?  I think he could mature into a contributor.  

[KoB2011]

Just now, NotIThatLives said:

Did he have to sit out a year coming from an NAIA?  I think he could mature into a contributor.  

I think he did?  Although I thought it would be up at semester. 

[5fouls]

I was under the impression the Vijay was eligible to play now.  

[CauseThatsMyDJ]

Couple things I've seen on Vijay - one, he is indeed redshirting this year (that was from Josh Margolis of ITH). And two, he shot 30% from three his senior year in high school. Not exactly his brother.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/vijay-blackmon/aPVWZEdFEeOZXQAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm

[IU Scott]

11 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Couple things I've seen on Vijay - one, he is indeed redshirting this year (that was from Josh Margolis of ITH). And two, he shot 30% from three his senior year in high school. Not exactly his brother.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/vijay-blackmon/aPVWZEdFEeOZXQAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm

I saw him in person at the state finals his senior year and was not impressed with him at all.

[Zuckerkorn]

36 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

Couple things I've seen on Vijay - one, he is indeed redshirting this year (that was from Josh Margolis of ITH). And two, he shot 30% from three his senior year in high school. Not exactly his brother.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/vijay-blackmon/aPVWZEdFEeOZXQAmVebBJg/gendersport/basketball-stats.htm

I wonder if he defends better?  Whatever the case, his presence could pay dividends in 2021....

[bstall76]

3 hours ago, Zuckerkorn said:

I wonder if he defends better?  Whatever the case, his presence could pay dividends in 2021....

How good is the youngest Blackmon?  I know Vijay is not D1 material hence NAIA out of high school, but what about the baby of the family.

[FW_Hoosier]

Just saw these interesting stats. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

[KoB2011]

34 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Just saw these interesting stats. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

Interesting. Probably something Archie doesn't spend much time on. Perhaps in his mind it's a skill guys should develop on their own instead of spending valuable practice time as he can funnel the ball to his better free throw shooters to close teams out. 

Can't say I agree if that's the case, but that's the best explanation I've got. 

[5fouls]

20 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Interesting. Probably something Archie doesn't spend much time on. Perhaps in his mind it's a skill guys should develop on their own instead of spending valuable practice time as he can funnel the ball to his better free throw shooters to close teams out. 

Can't say I agree if that's the case, but that's the best explanation I've got. 

I think it may speak to the type of player he recruits, not that it can explain this year's IU team.

[FKIM01]

As far as I am concerned, the free throws are on the players.  I guarantee that based on actual game performance, the players are not getting near enough reps at the charity stripe.  If I'm serious about playing basketball and I'm under 70% at the stripe, I'm spending a couple of hours daily at the stripe until my percentage is satisfactory.  No way these IU players are putting in any meaningful time practicing free throws and no, I don't believe Archie should have to spend valuable practice time doing what the players can do on their own time if they really care.

[FW_Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

As far as I am concerned, the free throws are on the players.  I guarantee that based on actual game performance, the players are not getting near enough reps at the charity stripe.  If I'm serious about playing basketball and I'm under 70% at the stripe, I'm spending a couple of hours daily at the stripe until my percentage is satisfactory.  No way these IU players are putting in any meaningful time practicing free throws and no, I don't believe Archie should have to spend valuable practice time doing what the players can do on their own time if they really care.

So Archie has just never had players who care about shooting free throws?

[FKIM01]

1 minute ago, FW_Hoosier said:

So Archie has just never had players who care about shooting free throws?

No idea. I'm just speaking to this year's team. Maybe Archie needs to make free throws a focus, but I think it's absolutely unnecessary to devote practice time when the players can work on free throws themselves.  At some point, players themselves need to put forth some effort to improve. I'm troubled that they don't care enough about their abysmal free throw percentages to put in the necessary effort to get better.  If they were, they would be better than they are.

[FW_Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

No idea. I'm just speaking to this year's team. Maybe Archie needs to make free throws a focus, but I think it's absolutely unnecessary to devote practice time when the players can work on free throws themselves.  At some point, players themselves need to put forth some effort to improve. I'm troubled that they don't care enough about their abysmal free throw percentages to put in the necessary effort to get better.  If they were, they would be better than they are.

I really don’t think it’s as simple as just “putting the work in” when a player is struggling at the line.  If that was the case, almost everyone in the league would be shooting above 80%.  It’s some of our best players, like Juwan and McRoberts, who are struggling at the free throw line.  I can guarantee you those two guys care, at the very least.  There are a bunch of reasons why they might be struggling at the line that aren’t easy fixes — mental blocks, their form is off for some reason, etc.  I think it’s the coaching staff’s job to work with the players to get that fixed.

If there’s one area I’m a little worried we took a step back in going from Crean and his staff to Archie and his, it’s skill development in the area of shooting.

[FKIM01]

You really think players are spending hours daily on practicing free throws?  I doubt it.  The results on the floor just don't show any signs of that.  I get that some of it is mental, but mental can he helped through repetition.  Not gonna agree with you on this one.  If Archie is asked and insists that the players are spending a lot of time on free throws, I'll gladly eat crow on this one.  Right now, I have serious doubts they are.  I think we'd see signs of it otherwise.

[NCHoosier32]

i just think with the whole package that we aren't going to miss RoJo or Newkirk much next year.  i just don't like watching them for some reason.  can't exactly put my finger on it.  i guess they seem out to get their's to me and make poor decisions when they should be the rocks that keep us steady.