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Cincinnati Pregame Thread


KDB

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I really hope we come out and make a statement today.

Reading the reddit pregame thread, Cincinnati fans have become arrogant. They have a solid program, but they're massively overhyped in this game. Arkansas is not good, meanwhile there's Cincy fans saying we're untested lol. I think Illinois and WKU are both better than their "test" so far this year.

I think this game hinges much more on whether IU can keep from beating itself. You never know what will happen, so I always try to keep from speaking in absolutes, but I have a really hard time seeing Cincinnati rolling us today.

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Just because I started down this rabbit hole, some simple stats from IU, Cincy, and their FBS opponents thus far:

Total Defense Ranks:

ILL - 9

Cincy - 29

Miami (OH) - 58

WKU - 88

ARK - 105

IU - 115

Defense PPG allowed:

ILL - 8

Cincy - 19.3

IU - 24

WKU - 25.7

ARK - 27

Miami (OH) - 29.7

Total Offense Ranks:

ARK - 18

Cincy - 29

ILL - 46

WKU - 53

IU - 61

Miami (OH) - 118

Offense PPG: 

Cincy - 41.7

WKU - 39.0

ARK - 37.7

IU - 30.3

ILL - 28.3

Miami (OH) - 20.3

FWIW FCS Stats for Kennesaw State and Idaho, since the above numbers are also based on those opponents:

Total Defense:

Idaho - 36

KS - 97

Total Offense:

Idaho - 57

KS - 94

Defense PPG:

Idaho - 24.3

KS - 45 

Offense PPG:

Idaho - 27

KS - 13.5

Taking a holistic view, I'd say IL is the best team out of the bunch at this point in the season.  I don't know where the 16.5 spread is coming from, but it's delusional.  Cincy measures out better statistically than us, but it's much closer than a 16.5 spread, especially when you consider each team's competition up to this point.  If you take away the FCS games from IU's and Cincinnati's stats, Cincy is scoring 31 ppg, and IU is scoring 28 (and against better defenses).  In short, Cincy's season stats are propped up because they played an absolute doormat of an FCS team.

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It will take a great game from IU and some good luck to win.  We've been inconsistent all season though we have showed some promise.  Although Cincy has lost a lot from a team that made the playoff, they are still very good.  They develop their players.  They have a long home winning streak.  It could be a long day for the Hoosiers.

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