Xavier Johnson will not return this season

[IUCrazy2]

21 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Im not sure how much him and Trayce are making this year.  Isn't the Kentucky kid making 2 mil?  I'd say Jalen has earned himself a little NIL raise from someone wealthy  and hungry to hang banner 6.  Not to mention, the value of being named dropped for NPOY for the next 12 months and playing himself into top 5.  

Until it comes out definitive, I'm holding onto hoping for a return.  And geez him and X next year would be on a war path.  

Christian Watford said that JHS going in the first round after this year would be best long term for Woodson.  I think he is coming from that from a players perspective, but it makes sense.  Look how many players Calipari still draws even though his track record has kind of stunk lately.  Duke is still pulling and Kryzewski isn't even there anymore....

[KoB2011]

9 hours ago, Inequality said:

I don’t see it at all. With the loss of Trace and Jalen, you’ve lost 98% of your scoring ability. I’m hoping miracles come in the form of the transfer portal if we are going to get above mid pack in the B1G next season. Right now, if not for TJD, we would be fighting for air at the bottom of the ocean.

Edit to add: Also, can’t forget about Race and Kopp and the defensive presence alone that these two currently bring. Maybe not as consistent as we’d like but that can be said about the entire team defensively. Their loss isn’t nearly as massively huge as Trace and Jalen but will be a void to fill none the less and I don’t see anyone on the bench currently with similar strengths. Maybe Geronimo for Race.

Agreed, XJ is a great piece for next season to feel pretty good we have. I think Trey and Malik are good pieces for next season, too, but we need a few guys in the transfer portal still. 

[Seeking6]

2 hours ago, rico said:

I have seen him going in that 13-15 range myself.  Based off of last year, if he went #15, he would earn around 3.2 mil.  3 year contract would pay him around 10 mil.  The kid has to jump at that doesn't he?

As far as next year, I am not concerned.  I trust in Woody.

Two lines of thinking for me.

First the only reason JHS would come back is if he gets intel that says he'd go around 20 which would be $7.5M over first 3 years.....or he could come back and push himself up to say 8th which would earn him just under $15M over first 3 years. That's a significant enough difference to give it some consideration.

Secondly though the way I understand most kids is the first contract is nice but the sooner they get the clock running the sooner they can get to that second contract which is obviously much much higher.

Factoring in risk of injury,etc....if I'm JHS I'm out of here.

Keeping thread though on Xavier. For the same reason I would tell JHS to go is the same reason I'd tell X to come back. Have a chance to showcase your ability all next year and see if you can play your way into the 2nd round ala Thomas Bryant or others.

[rico]

48 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Im not sure how much him and Trayce are making this year.  Isn't the Kentucky kid making 2 mil?  I'd say Jalen has earned himself a little NIL raise from someone wealthy  and hungry to hang banner 6.  Not to mention, the value of being named dropped for NPOY for the next 12 months and playing himself into top 5.  

Until it comes out definitive, I'm holding onto hoping for a return.  And geez him and X next year would be on a war path.  

You can hope I suppose.  But if the projections hold, JHS has to jump on it.  

[KoB2011]

2 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Two lines of thinking for me.

First the only reason JHS would come back is if he gets intel that says he'd go around 20 which would be $7.5M over first 3 years.....or he could come back and push himself up to say 8th which would earn him just under $15M over first 3 years. That's a significant enough difference to give it some consideration.

Secondly though the way I understand most kids is the first contract is nice but the sooner they get the clock running the sooner they can get to that second contract which is obviously much much higher.

Factoring in risk of injury,etc....if I'm JHS I'm out of here.

Keeping thread though on Xavier. For the same reason I would tell JHS to go is the same reason I'd tell X to come back. Have a chance to showcase your ability all next year and see if you can play your way into the 2nd round ala Thomas Bryant or others.

 

1 minute ago, rico said:

You can hope I suppose.  But if the projections hold, JHS has to jump on it.  

If it's a money/business decision, JHS is gone. If there are other factors then maybe he is back.

It really comes down to what is his motivating factor here which I don't think any of us know. It seems obvious enough he is gone, but there are a million variables we just don't have anyway of knowing (other than the right financial move is to go, which is a very large variable). We've had guys come back projected to go lottery before, but not often. 

[Stlboiler23]

10 hours ago, Inequality said:

What year is Braden Smith again?

He’s exceeded pretty much every expectation we had of him. For every Braden Smith, there’s a Khristian Lander example. Always tough to bank on freshmen that aren’t obvious one-and-done guys like an Eric Gordon. 

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, Stlboiler23 said:

He’s exceeded pretty much every expectation we had of him. For every Braden Smith, there’s a Khristian Lander example. Always tough to bank on freshmen that aren’t obvious one-and-done guys like an Eric Gordon. 

To yank this back into some semblance of the OP, if XJ does get a waiver, I feel pretty good about him and Galloway versus Loyer and Smith next year...And if Edey goes, and they don't have to double...😮

[dgambill]

3 hours ago, IUFLA said:

To yank this back into some semblance of the OP, if XJ does get a waiver, I feel pretty good about him and Galloway versus Loyer and Smith next year...And if Edey goes, and they don't have to double...😮

Newman is the x-factor for Purdue. If he makes that leap he can be a difference maker for them. They will be solid and in the hunt…I have a feeling the B1G will be all bunched up again next year…minus a runaway Purdue team.

[dgambill]

15 hours ago, Inequality said:

I don’t see it at all. With the loss of Trace and Jalen, you’ve lost 98% of your scoring ability. I’m hoping miracles come in the form of the transfer portal if we are going to get above mid pack in the B1G next season. Right now, if not for TJD, we would be fighting for air at the bottom of the ocean.

Edit to add: Also, can’t forget about Race and Kopp and the defensive presence alone that these two currently bring. Maybe not as consistent as we’d like but that can be said about the entire team defensively. Their loss isn’t nearly as massively huge as Trace and Jalen but will be a void to fill none the less and I don’t see anyone on the bench currently with similar strengths. Maybe Geronimo for Race.

I don’t get the wish for the portal. Guards will win you games and we have a full backcourt. You bring in a transfer with this veteran backcourt and you are going to send your own guys into the portal. XJ, Bates, Trey will all play big minutes. That’s 3 starters. Those 3 alone are great defenders when locked in and will deserve to see a lot of the court. Gunn will see his minutes go up and we will see Cupp and Newton on the court as well. Banks will battle it out with Geronimo for minutes at the 4 and Reneau is the starting 5. We might need a rim protecting 5 for sure to mix in there but we have no need for anything else in the portal. If we do we can count on losing guys. We have seen good development…look how far Trey has come…look at our freshman and their improvement over the season. Banks has come along to be serviceable, Reneau has been improving, and JHS blew up. If XJ is gone I get it. I’d want a veteran pg as well but we basically got our transfer with XJ coming back.

[KoB2011]

11 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I don’t get the wish for the portal. Guards will win you games and we have a full backcourt. You bring in a transfer with this veteran backcourt and you are going to send your own guys into the portal. XJ, Bates, Trey will all play big minutes. That’s 3 starters. Those 3 alone are great defenders when locked in and will deserve to see a lot of the court. Gunn will see his minutes go up and we will see Cupp and Newton on the court as well. Banks will battle it out with Geronimo for minutes at the 4 and Reneau is the starting 5. We might need a rim protecting 5 for sure to mix in there but we have no need for anything else in the portal. If we do we can count on losing guys. We have seen good development…look how far Trey has come…look at our freshman and their improvement over the season. Banks has come along to be serviceable, Reneau has been improving, and JHS blew up. If XJ is gone I get it. I’d want a veteran pg as well but we basically got our transfer with XJ coming back.

I hope you're correct on Bates...

[FKIM01]

15 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I don’t get the wish for the portal. Guards will win you games and we have a full backcourt. You bring in a transfer with this veteran backcourt and you are going to send your own guys into the portal. XJ, Bates, Trey will all play big minutes. That’s 3 starters. Those 3 alone are great defenders when locked in and will deserve to see a lot of the court. Gunn will see his minutes go up and we will see Cupp and Newton on the court as well. Banks will battle it out with Geronimo for minutes at the 4 and Reneau is the starting 5. We might need a rim protecting 5 for sure to mix in there but we have no need for anything else in the portal. If we do we can count on losing guys. We have seen good development…look how far Trey has come…look at our freshman and their improvement over the season. Banks has come along to be serviceable, Reneau has been improving, and JHS blew up. If XJ is gone I get it. I’d want a veteran pg as well but we basically got our transfer with XJ coming back.

 

4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I hope you're correct on Bates...

Yeah...color me skeptical.  This was supposed to be his big leap year.  I understand life has thrown him a few curveballs (some he instigated himself) but I'm very much wondering if the IU fishbowl is a good match for Bates.  He no-showed a lot this season. 

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, KoB2011 said:

I hope you're correct on Bates...

Well if we bring in a guard to start over him he isn’t going to stay. He’s had an up and down year..but next year is his year to take a leap. He is a good on ball defender and he has been a good shooter when open. I think he has just had distractions off the court.

Edited March 5, 2023 by dgambill

[Inequality]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

I don’t get the wish for the portal. Guards will win you games and we have a full backcourt. You bring in a transfer with this veteran backcourt and you are going to send your own guys into the portal. XJ, Bates, Trey will all play big minutes. That’s 3 starters. Those 3 alone are great defenders when locked in and will deserve to see a lot of the court. Gunn will see his minutes go up and we will see Cupp and Newton on the court as well. Banks will battle it out with Geronimo for minutes at the 4 and Reneau is the starting 5. We might need a rim protecting 5 for sure to mix in there but we have no need for anything else in the portal. If we do we can count on losing guys. We have seen good development…look how far Trey has come…look at our freshman and their improvement over the season. Banks has come along to be serviceable, Reneau has been improving, and JHS blew up. If XJ is gone I get it. I’d want a veteran pg as well but we basically got our transfer with XJ coming back.

As much as I’d love to be loyal to all the players, championships aren’t going to be won on sentimental feelings alone. Maybe others have but I haven’t seen anything from Bates, Banks, Gunn, Duncomb or anyone off the bench for that matter that makes me believe they will be significant contributors next season, veteran or not. 

I like the dog in Galloway. I like the potential in Reneu. I’m hopeful for Newton and Cupps. XJ potentially returning. Other than that, I’m fine with a fresh, perfectly assembled crew from the portal.

[BGleas]

2 hours ago, Inequality said:

As much as I’d love to be loyal to all the players, championships aren’t going to be won on sentimental feelings alone. Maybe others have but I haven’t seen anything from Bates, Banks, Gunn, Duncomb or anyone off the bench for that matter that makes me believe they will be significant contributors next season, veteran or not. 

I like the dog in Galloway. I like the potential in Reneu. I’m hopeful for Newton and Cupps. XJ potentially returning. Other than that, I’m fine with a fresh, perfectly assembled crew from the portal.

Yeah, we don't just need some guys to step up next year, we need a couple guys to turn into 1st/2nd Team All-Conference caliber players. 

We don't just need a guy like Bates to make a leap, we need him to become a legit 15ppg+ go-to Big Ten scorer/closer. 

We have nice pieces, but not sure "the guy" is currently on the roster. 

[Parakeet Jones]

When we were down early in the 2nd half, X looked absolutely sick to not be out there. 

[Steubenhoosier]

4 hours ago, dgambill said:

Well if we bring in a guard to start over him he isn’t going to stay. He’s had an up and down year..but next year is his year to take a leap. He is a good on ball defender and he has been a good shooter when open. I think he has just had distractions off the court.

That’s what was said about this year 

[5fouls]

On 3/5/2023 at 3:24 PM, dgambill said:

I don’t get the wish for the portal. Guards will win you games and we have a full backcourt. You bring in a transfer with this veteran backcourt and you are going to send your own guys into the portal. XJ, Bates, Trey will all play big minutes. That’s 3 starters. Those 3 alone are great defenders when locked in and will deserve to see a lot of the court. Gunn will see his minutes go up and we will see Cupp and Newton on the court as well. Banks will battle it out with Geronimo for minutes at the 4 and Reneau is the starting 5. We might need a rim protecting 5 for sure to mix in there but we have no need for anything else in the portal. If we do we can count on losing guys. We have seen good development…look how far Trey has come…look at our freshman and their improvement over the season. Banks has come along to be serviceable, Reneau has been improving, and JHS blew up. If XJ is gone I get it. I’d want a veteran pg as well but we basically got our transfer with XJ coming back.

Banks is a 3, not a 4.

I said it in another thread.  I'm assuming 25 minutes from Reneau.  We need to find 55+ minutes a game from 3 players to give us 4 bodies at the 4/5 spot.  You need the depth to offset injury and foul trouble.

Maybe Geronimo is one of those 3 additional bodies.  Maybe he isn't.  But, at a minimum, we need an influx of 2 bigs, but my gut thinks it needs to be 3.

If X is back, I'm okay with spots 1-3, but we're in a lot of trouble if we dont land some frontcourt talent in the portal.

[btownqb]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Banks is a 3, not a 4.

I said it in another thread.  I'm assuming 25 minutes from Reneau.  We need to find 55+ minutes a game from 3 players to give us 4 bodies at the 4/5 spot.  You need the depth to offset injury and foul trouble.

Maybe Geronimo is one of those 3 additional bodies.  Maybe he isn't.  But, at a minimum, we need an influx of 2 bigs, but my gut thinks it needs to be 3.

If X is back, I'm okay with spots 1-3, but we're in a lot of trouble if we dont land some frontcourt talent in the portal.

Banks should be able to play some 4 against certain teams. And hopefully creates more of mismatch on the other end. 

[Hoosierfan1215]

10 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Banks should be able to play some 4 against certain teams. And hopefully creates more of mismatch on the other end. 

I love Banks rebounding. He should be able to get good position on a lot of other 3s but also 4 spot too. Put on 15-20 of muscle and a consistent jumper, and defensive IQ he could be a big piece next year. Very excited for him. I like his demeanor too on the court. 

Now that I type that it seems like a lot of “needs” to get better, but he has the ability. Lol. 

[btownqb]

Just now, Hoosierfan1215 said:

I love Banks rebounding. He should be able to get good position on a lot of other 3s but also 4 spot too. Put on 15-20 of muscle and a consistent jumper, and defensive IQ he could be a big piece next year. Very excited for him. I like his demeanor too on the court. 

Now that I type that it seems like a lot of “needs” to get better, but he has the ability. Lol. 

I get it, for sure. He gives us a lot of switchability defensively, too. 

[5fouls]

13 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Banks should be able to play some 4 against certain teams. And hopefully creates more of mismatch on the other end. 

But, he's not someone you can expect to play the 4 against teams with big frontcourt.  We need a minimum of 4 guys that can play those positions without counting on guys that can swing over based on matchups.  

[btownqb]

Just now, 5fouls said:

But, he's not someone you can expect to play the 4 against teams with big frontcourt.  We need a minimum of 4 guys that can play those positions without counting on guys that can swing over based on matchups.  

5 idc about being big as much as I care about being skilled. Needing 4 big guys doesn't mean Banks can't play the 4. 

Kansas goes 6'7 225, 6'8 205, 6'8 215.. 

I prefer to create a mismatch, more than match the other team.  Banks skill development and weight room development will show us a lot.  If he comes back 6'7 220... I want him at the 4. 

[5fouls]

39 minutes ago, btownqb said:

5 idc about being big as much as I care about being skilled. Needing 4 big guys doesn't mean Banks can't play the 4. 

Kansas goes 6'7 225, 6'8 205, 6'8 215.. 

I prefer to create a mismatch, more than match the other team.  Banks skill development and weight room development will show us a lot.  If he comes back 6'7 220... I want him at the 4. 

All I know is we had 5 guys that fit the 4/5 profile among our 13 scholarship players this year.  TJD, RT, MR, JG, and LD.

One, and only one, of those guys was healthy the entire season (MR).

Two others (TJD and RT) played hurt in multiple games out of sheer necessity.

When we only had 3 of those players available, it absolutely affected the team, and IU was extremely lucky that 1 of those 3 was an All-American.

That All-American wont be here next season.  I have no appetite for starting next season with MR being the only sure thing in the frontcourt.  

Adding 3 reliable new frontcourt pieces to what we have is critical.  If Banks bulks up and can end up playing 10-15 minutes a night at the 4, we'll just be that much better.

But, taking LD out of the mix since he never played, having just 4 pieces barely worked this year despite one of those pieces being TJD.

MR, JG, half of KB, and ??????.  This team needs 3 additional bigs that can contribute, especially if one of those 3 holdovers isnt available because of injury or other.

[NotIThatLives]

1 hour ago, Hoosierfan1215 said:

I love Banks rebounding. He should be able to get good position on a lot of other 3s but also 4 spot too. Put on 15-20 of muscle and a consistent jumper, and defensive IQ he could be a big piece next year. Very excited for him. I like his demeanor too on the court. 

Now that I type that it seems like a lot of “needs” to get better, but he has the ability. Lol. 

Yes to this.  The current edition of Banks is a 3/4 tweener.  He's not ready to help break pressure and he's not quite strong enough to consistently guard 4s.  15-20 lbs of muscle might not be legally feasible or necessary.  However in another off season, assuming he works his tail off, he's going to be a huge jump guy next year.  

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

But, he's not someone you can expect to play the 4 against teams with big frontcourt.  We need a minimum of 4 guys that can play those positions without counting on guys that can swing over based on matchups.  

It depends how he develops. If he can get to 6'7 230 lbs (add 15 lbs of muscle) with his athleticism, I think he can handle just about any college four while creating a huge mismatch on the other end if his offensive game develops.