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Contender or Pretender


5fouls

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2 minutes ago, rico said:

What conference are they in?  And who have they played?

they've played their current schedule, similar to Purdue, that's been weaker than years past. But UC is beating the snot out of teams and KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency takes into account who you're playing and how you beat them. UC is legit

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20 minutes ago, HoagieRoll said:

they've played their current schedule, similar to Purdue, that's been weaker than years past. But UC is beating the snot out of teams and KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency takes into account who you're playing and how you beat them. UC is legit

I agree.........but see above.

 

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47 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

What does that have to do with style of play? You said teams that are overly physical, so now thug ball isn't overly physical. I'm still not sure what you meant. 

UC just beats you to death with their bodies.  Hard fouls and what not.  Wiskey had players that had high B-ball IQ's and were pretty talented as well.  

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9 minutes ago, rico said:

UC just beats you to death with their bodies.  Hard fouls and what not.  Wiskey had players that had high B-ball IQ's and were pretty talented as well.  

Gotcha. So it's a physical stupid team as opposed to Wisconsin who played just as physical but was smart. 

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3 hours ago, HoagieRoll said:

they've played their current schedule, similar to Purdue, that's been weaker than years past. But UC is beating the snot out of teams and KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency takes into account who you're playing and how you beat them. UC is legit

Yeah, but it's also skewed by beating up on bad teams. UC had the #294 nonconference schedule. The strength of their opposing offenses is #223. They're a solid team, but it would take some really good breaks to make a serious tournament run (not that it can't happen.... it's the tournament).

They're a legit Sweet 16 contender.

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15 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

Cincy @ SMU right now on ESPN if you want to see what Cincy is all about.

And on ESPNU we have Valpo vs Illinois State.  A team Valpo has not beaten since WWII  !   I will be switching between both games.... waiting with anticipation for Penn State's beat down of the Fighting Illini.... later today.  If IU can't beat 'em.... let it be PSU. 

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Just now, milehiiu said:

And on ESPNU we have Valpo vs Illinois State.  A team Valpo has not beaten since WWII  !   I will be switching between both games.... waiting with anticipation for Penn State's beat down of the Fighting Illini.... later today.  If IU can't beat 'em.... let it be PSU. 

Personally, rooting for Illinois to help our conference seeding. 

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5 minutes ago, jimsorgi said:

Yeah, but it's also skewed by beating up on bad teams. UC had the #294 nonconference schedule. The strength of their opposing offenses is #223. They're a solid team, but it would take some really good breaks to make a serious tournament run (not that it can't happen.... it's the tournament).

They're a legit Sweet 16 contender.

Thank you.

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10 minutes ago, jimsorgi said:

Yeah, but it's also skewed by beating up on bad teams. UC had the #294 nonconference schedule. The strength of their opposing offenses is #223. They're a solid team, but it would take some really good breaks to make a serious tournament run (not that it can't happen.... it's the tournament).

They're a legit Sweet 16 contender.

i can't speak out of 100% certainty, but KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all weighted by who you play. So if they play a bad schedule, they would have to really beat up on them to make any positive strides in their numbers--which they have. SOS is all corrected for when looking at offensive and defensive efficiency

last year they were 34th in offense, and top 5 defense. This year their offensive numbers are sitting at 55 but they've got a couple chances against WSU to improve on those

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obviously they've played a lighter schedule than other top teams. But being second in the nation in ADJUSTED defensive efficiency in KenPom means that they have the second best defensive team overall. It's ADJUSTED for who you play, meaning that according to that site only UVa would have held those teams UC played so far to less points/points per possession 

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46 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

And on ESPNU we have Valpo vs Illinois State.  A team Valpo has not beaten since WWII  !   I will be switching between both games.... waiting with anticipation for Penn State's beat down of the Fighting Illini.... later today.  If IU can't beat 'em.... let it be PSU. 

We actually need PSU to lose so we can move up to 6th in the big ten

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1 hour ago, HoagieRoll said:

i can't speak out of 100% certainty, but KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all weighted by who you play. So if they play a bad schedule, they would have to really beat up on them to make any positive strides in their numbers--which they have. SOS is all corrected for when looking at offensive and defensive efficiency

last year they were 34th in offense, and top 5 defense. This year their offensive numbers are sitting at 55 but they've got a couple chances against WSU to improve on those

Correct. But because he uses pure points (and not a declining benefit or cap on high scoring margins), it can be skewed at the extremes by games against inferior opponents.

In general: winning by 35 in a game you were favored to win be 25 is just as meaningful in this system as winning a game you were favored to lose by 9 (i.e., beating a terrible team a little more badly means as much as a big upset). There are good reasons he does this, and for most teams the difference is only at the margins, but it is worth noting when a pretty good team plays a terrible schedule, and especially when that team plays very slowly (so a ten point win, on a points per possession basis, is higher) - and UC is one of the slowest teams in basketball.

All this is a long way to say that UC's KenPom ratings (or Sagarin ratings, for essentially the same reason) are likely inflated to at least some degree. 

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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-what-actually-is-on-an-ncaa-tournament-resume-may-surprise-you/

Interesting article especially the things that are not considered--including Ken Pom ratings.

Also found it interesting that how a team ends up in conference is not important. I know on the old site there was an ongoing argument over how important winning the regular season conference title was or was not.

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What conference did Arkansas Little Rock play in when they knocked Mighty purwho out of the "Big Dance " In 2016 ??? THe conference affiliation has absolutely nothing to do with the QUALITY of its best team !, imho !  There are NON POWER conference teams that pull " so-called" UPSETS in the "Big Dance "  every season !!! Cincinnati's 76 to 51 butt whuppin of SMU this season  tells me that the Bearcats are for REAL !! There are those of you who put down the West Coast Confernce !! Yet -Gonzaga from that conference made it ALL  the way to the NCAA TOURNAMENT  Championship game last season !! And  , I am telling everybody right now:: I don't think you would want to see your team playing either St. Mary's of California or Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference it this year's "Big Dance " unless it was in the NCAA TOURNAMENT Championship game !!

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1 minute ago, hoosiertildeath said:

What conference did Arkansas Little Rock play in when they knocked Mighty purwho out of the "Big Dance " In 2016 ??? THe conference affiliation has absolutely nothing to do with the QUALITY of its best team !, imho !  There are NON POWER conference teams that pull " so-called" UPSETS in the "Big Dance "  every season !!! Cincinnati's 76 to 51 butt whuppin of SMU this season  tells me that the Bearcats are for REAL !! There are those of you who put down the West Coast Confernce !! Yet -Gonzaga from that conference made it ALL  the way to the NCAA TOURNAMENT  Championship game last season !! And  , I am telling everybody right now:: I don't think you would want to see your team playing either St. Mary's of California or Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference it this year's "Big Dance " unless it was in the NCAA TOURNAMENT Championship game !!

I think everyone here would be THRILLED if we were playing Gonzaga or St Mary's in the NCAA tournament.

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9 minutes ago, hoosiertildeath said:

Then they must get a thrill out of seeing IU LOSE ?????? The only way I'd like to see IU playing Gonzaga or St. Mary's in the NCAA Tournament [ this season] would be in the NCAA Tournament Championship game !!  !! Then , IU would at least only be losing  in the NCAA Tournament Championship game  !!

Yes, most IU fans would take an opening round loss to one of those schools over not making the tournament at all.

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