IUFLA Posted August 16, 2024 Report Posted August 16, 2024 (edited) Quiet part of the year until we get solid intel on just how we look in summer practices, so just to stimulate the conversation... Prefaced again by saying, I'm not an expert by any means, just a fan with an opinion. I do watch a lot of Big 10 basketball, and tried to "catch up" on the conference newcomers by watching their games from last year on Youtube. The Portal Rankings are from On3 and utilizes the On3 (P)erformance score to measure a team’s production during the transfer process, compared relative against its roster and not a comparison against other schools. This proprietary algorithm determines if a school has improved its overall team talent, stayed the same, or declined in talent during the transfer window. The Recruiting Rankings are from 247... Added comments this year as well... So, have at 1.Indiana Best Returning Player: Malik Reneau Has to Make a Jump: Mackenzie Mgbako Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Myles Rice (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 1st Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 17th Comments: Experience, size, versatility and talent. IU has 7 kids that scored in double digits at the D1 level last year, 6 of them in a P6 conference. Only questions are is there enough shooting, and can Mike Woodson meld them together. 2.UCLA Best Returning Player: Dylan Andrews Has to Make a Jump: Kobe Johnson (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Tyler Bilodeau (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 6th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 8th Comments: 4 starters back, 3 of whom scored in double figures last year, from a 16-17 (10-10, 5th in Pac-12) team that was inexperienced with 3 sophomores and 3 freshmen seeing over 15 MPG. Mick Cronin is a better coach than that. Some good additions via the portal, including the much-traveled Skye Clark who led Louisville in scoring (14 PPG) last year 3.Purdue Best Returning Player: Braden Smith Has to Make a Jump: Trey Kaufman-Renn Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Gicarri Harris (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 11th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 4th Comments: 3 starters back from a Final 4 team, but 2 important pieces, Zach Edey and Lance Jones, are gone. Two biggest questions are, can Purdue make up for Edey’s numbers between Heide, Colvin, TKR, Smith, and Loyer, and can their guards step up on the defensive end? 4.Michigan Best Returning Player: Nimari Burnett Has to Make a Jump: Tre Donaldson (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Vladislav Goldin (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 3rd Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 12th Comments: Brought in some talent from the portal, notably Roddy Gayle Jr. (13.5 PPG at Ohio State), Rubin Jones (12.1 PPG at North Texas), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG at Florida Atlantic), and Danny Wolf (14.1 PPG at Yale). PG Trey Donaldson (6.7 PPG at Auburn) may be key. The Wolverines have one of the better “hustle guys” in Will Tschetter who also shot 52% from 3 on low volume. 5.Oregon Best Returning Player: Jackson Shelstad Has to Make a Jump: Kwame Evans Jr Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: TJ Bamba (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 5th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 18th Comments: Jackson Shelstad is one of those kids most of us haven’t seen play due to the late start times of the Pac-12, but after watching a couple of full Oregon games on Youtube, he’s a legit PG. Tough and really good with the ball in his hands. The Ducks have a nice core coming back off a 24-12 (12-8, 4th in the Pac-12) year which gained them a tournament bid, and did pretty well in the portal bring in Brandon Angel (13.0 PPG at Stanford), Supreme Cook (10.5 PPG at Georgetown), and TJ Bamba (10.1 PPG at Villanova) 6.Michigan State Best Returning Player: Jaden Akins Has to Make a Jump: Xavier Booker Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Frankie Fidler (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 13th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 3rd Comments: Izzo has some nice pieces in Akins and Holloman, but neither Carson Cooper or Jaxon Kohler have proven to be reliable 5s. Both Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears have to live up to their enormous potential and Frankie Fidler has to prove he can be a big time scorer at the P6 level for Sparty to compete at the top of the Big 10. 7.Ohio State Best Returning Player: Bruce Thornton Has to Make a Jump: Aaron Bradshaw (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Meechie Johnson (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 14th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 10th Comments: Have 2 returning starters in Bruce Thronton, who is one of the better PGs in the league, and “glue guy” Evan Mahaffey. Meechie Johnson makes his return after a solid year (14 PPG) at South Carolina. The Bucks are going to need portal transfers with potential like big man Aaron Bradshaw (4.9 PPG at Kentucky) and Sean Stewart (2.6 PPG at Duke) to step up. Micah Parrish (9.3 PPG at San Diego State) was a nice veteran addition who has played in a Final 4 and comes from a winning program. Devin Royal may make a sophomore jump. 8.Nebraska Best Returning Player: Brice Williams Has to Make a Jump: Berke Buyuktuncel (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Connor Essegian (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 2nd Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 13th Comments: Bring back 2 solid players in Brice Williams and Cleveland Gary but losing Keisei Tominaga (graduation) and Rienk Mast (injury) looms large. 7 footer Braxton Meah (5.3 PPG at Washington) needs to step up, as well as ballyhooed international player Berke Buyuktuncel (4.5 PPG at UCLA). Big 10 transfers Gavin Griffiths (5.8 PPG at Rutgers), Ahron Ulis (6.1 PPG at Iowa in 2022-23), and Connor Essegian (3.2 PPG at Wisconsin) have to fulfill some of the promise they’ve shown. Fred Hoiberg was Co-Big 10 Coach of the Year last year. 9.Illinois Best Returning Player: Ty Rodgers Has to Make a Jump: Tre White (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Kasparas Jakucionis (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 9th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 2nd Comments: Lots of question marks here. One returning starter in Ty Rodgers, who’s an all around decent player, but limited on the offensive end. Long on potential in both their portal haul and high school recruiting, but a lot of things have to go right from the Illini to compete at the top of the conference. Tre White (12.3 PPG at Louisville) and Kylan Boswell (9.6 PPG at Arizona) both have to make a step forward, and Ben Humrichous (14.7 PPG at Evansville) needs to prove it at the P6 level. And asking freshmen Tomislav Ivisic (51), Kasparas Jakucionis (36), and Will Riley (No. 12 in ESPN 100 for 2024) to take on major roles just seems like a lot. 10.Iowa Best Returning Player: Payton Sandfort Has to Make a Jump: Josh Dix Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Seydou Traore (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 16th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 11th Comments: The Hawkeyes return 2 of the best shooters in the Big 10 with Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix. They also return Co-Big 10 Freshman of the Year in big man Owen Freeman. The questions are who replaces Tony Perkins’ toughness, leadership, and scoring. Former Illinois Mr Basketball and Freeman’s high school teammate Brock Harding showed some promise as a freshman last year. Needs a jump from sophs Pryce Sandfort (2.3 PPG) and Ladji Dembele (2.2 PPG) and solid contributions from transfers Seydou Traore (11.8 PPG at Manhattan) and Drew Thelwell (10.0 PPG at Morehead State) to compete in the top half of the Big 10. 11.Maryland Best Returning Player: Julian Reese Has to Make a Jump: DeShawn Harris-Smith Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ja'Kobi Gillespie (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 8th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 9th Comments: The Terps return All Big 10 Honorable Mention big Julian Reese, along with starters Jordan Geronimo and DeShawn Harris-Smith, who was touted as the Pre-Season Big 10 Freshman of the Year last fall, along with solid bench piece Jahari Long. Interesting portal haul with Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.2 PPG at Belmont), Rodney Rice (7.4 PPG at Virginia Tech in 2022-23), and Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG at South Florida). How much will 5 star freshman Derick Queen contribute and can Kevin Willard turn around last seasons disappointing finish 16-17 (7-13, 12th in Big 10) 12.Penn State Best Returning Player: Ace Baldwin Jr Has to Make a Jump: Freddie Dilione V (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Miles Goodman (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 12th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 5th Comments: One really good piece in Ace Baldwin Jr. (14.2 PPG) who was 3rd Team All Big 10 and the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, 2 pretty good pieces in Zach Hicks (8.4 PPG) and Nick Kern Jr. (8.7 PPG) who were both Big 10 Honorable Mention, and guys who have never fulfilled their potential in UNC transfers from a year ago Puff Johnson (7.3 PPG) and D'Marco Dunn (6.8 PPG). Add former top 50 recruit Freddie Dilione V (1.7 PPG at Tennessee) to the same category as those 2. 13.Northwestern Best Returning Player: Brooks Barnhizer Has to Make a Jump: Nick Martinelli Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Jalen Leach (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 10th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 15th Comments: Indiana nemesis Boo Buie is gone, but Northwestern returns 3 starters in Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 PPG), Ty Berry (11.6 PPG 43% from 3), and serviceable big Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG). Nick Martinelli (8.8 PPG) is a good “hustle guy” from a team that finished 3rd in the Big 10 and made the NCAA Tournament in consecutive years for the first time in their history. Jalen Leach (16.2 PPG at Fairfield) and Keenan Fitzmorris (10.9 PPG at Stony Brook) are good portal additions for Chris Collins offense. 14.Wisconsin Best Returning Player: Steven Crowl Has to Make a Jump: John Blackwell Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Camren Hunter (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 18th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 14th Comments: Not a good off season for Bucky losing All Big 10 2nd Team wing AJ Storr and Honorable Mention Chucky Hepburn to the portal. Steven Crowl is a reliable big, and Max Klesmit, who torched IU for 26 in Madison last year, both return as starters. John Blackwell made the Big 10 All Freshman team and should take on a bigger roll. Transfers Camren Hunter (16.9 PPG at Central Arkansas in 2022-23…sat out with injury last year) and Xavier Amos (13.8 PPG at Northern Illinois) have to step up big for the Badgers. 15.USC Best Returning Player: Harrison Hornery (ONLY returning player) Has to Make a Jump: Clark Slajchert (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Desmond Claude (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 4th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 6th Comments: Probably the team with the most question marks coming into the season. The only returning player is lightly used Harrison Hornery (3 PPG). A boatload of portal transfers, but only two, Terrance Williams II (12.4 PPG at Michigan) and the very talented Desmond Claude (16.6 PPG at Xavier) with P6 experience, but 8 others who averaged double digits at Mid-Major schools. Last year at Arkansas, new USC coach Eric Musselman, who I know has a lot of fans here, couldn’t get another patchwork of portal talent to play well enough to compete in the SEC. Maybe he can in SoCal? 16.Rutgers Best Returning Player: Jeremiah Williams Has to Make a Jump: Emmanual Ogbole Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ace Bailey (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 15th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 1st Comments: A lot depends on the 2 highly rated freshmen, Ace Baily and Dylan Harper, and how well their games translate to the college level. Rutgers returns starters Jeremiah Williams (12.2 PPG), who can be dynamic but inconsistent, and Jamichael Davis (5.6 PPG) but will have to rely on holdover big Emmanuel Ogbole (2.1 PPG) to start in a very thin frountcourt and transfer Jordan Derkack (17.0 PPG at Merrimack) to provide depth. Biggest portal get, Tyson Acuff (21.7 PPG at Eastern Michigan) is out with a broken foot for 3 months. And I’m not totally sold on Coach Steve Pikiell who is 132-123 overall and 63-95 in conference in his 8 years with the Scalet Knights and has never finished above 4th in the Big 10. 17.Washington Best Returning Player: Franck Kepnang Has to Make a Jump: DJ Davis (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Great Osobor (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 7th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 7th Comments: Another team with not much coming back, but a nice transfer portal haul for rookie Big 10 coach Danny Sprinkle, who has been to 3 straight NCAA Tournaments (21-22 and 22-23 with Montana State, and last year with Utah State) and has an overall wining percentage of 69%. Some interesting portal pickups in Great Osobor (17.7 PPG at Utah State), Mekhi Mason (14.0 PPG at Rice), DJ Davis (13.5 PPG at Butler), and Tyler Harris (12.1 PPG at Portland). They, along with heralded freshman PG Zoom Diallo look to make the Huskies competitive in the Big 10. 18.Minnesota Best Returning Player: Dawson Garcia Has to Make a Jump: Caleb Williams (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Lu'Cye Patterson (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 17th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 16th Comments: Minnesota Coach Ben Johnson just can’t seem to keep a team together long enough to succeed. Losing big Pharel Payne and Big 10 Honorable Mention PG Elijah Hawkins to the portal, and All Big 10 Freshman Cam Christie to the NBA from a team that, after being picked last in the Big 10 last year but finishing at 9-11 tying for 9th, hurt. He did retain start big man Dawson Garcia, the Gophers top scorer and rebounder last year, and starter Mike Mitchell Jr. (10.2 PPG) and bench piece “hustle guy” Parker Fox. Add portal transfers Caleb Williams (19.6 PPG at Macalester - D-III), Frank Mitchell (12.1 PPG at Canisius), Femi Odukale (10.7 PPG at New Mexico State), and promising Senior guard Lu'Cye Patterson (14.6 PPG at Charlotte). Maybe they can surprise again? Edited August 19, 2024 by IUFLA 6 1 Quote
5fouls Posted August 16, 2024 Report Posted August 16, 2024 Thanks for posting. I admittedly have not paid enough attention to all of the comings and goings to pass judgement on the order of ranking. The one thing the list does though is remind me how much I dislike the size of the conference. It's too many teams for me to embrace and devote the time and effort to become fully engaged with everything. Am I going to watch a Washington vs. Nebraska basketball game on BTN? Probably not. 4 Quote
IU Scott Posted August 16, 2024 Report Posted August 16, 2024 2 hours ago, IUFLA said: Quiet part of the year until we get solid intel on just how we look in summer practices, so just to stimulate the conversation... Prefaced again by saying, I'm not an expert by any means, just a fan with an opinion. I do watch a lot of Big 10 basketball, and tried to "catch up" on the conference newcomers by watching their games from last year on Youtube. The Portal Rankings are from On3 and utilizes the On3 (P)erformance score to measure a team’s production during the transfer process, compared relative against its roster and not a comparison against other schools. This proprietary algorithm determines if a school has improved its overall team talent, stayed the same, or declined in talent during the transfer window. The Recruiting Rankings are from 247... Added comments this year as well... So, have at 1.Indiana Best Returning Player: Malik Reneau Has to Make a Jump: Mackenzie Mgbako Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Myles Rice (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 1st Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 17th Comments: Experience, size, versatility and talent. IU has 7 kids that scored in double digits at the D1 level last year, 6 of them in a P6 conference. Only questions are is there enough shooting, and can Mike Woodson meld them together. 2.UCLA Best Returning Player: Dylan Andrews Has to Make a Jump: Kobe Johnson (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Tyler Bilodeau (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 6th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 8th Comments: 4 starters back, 3 of whom scored in double figures last year, from a 16-17 (10-10, 5th in Pac-12) team that was inexperienced with 3 sophomores and 3 freshmen seeing over 15 MPG. Mick Cronin is a better coach than that. Some good additions via the portal, including the much-traveled Skye Clark who led Louisville in scoring (14 PPG) last year 3.Purdue Best Returning Player: Braden Smith Has to Make a Jump: Trey Kaufman-Renn Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Gicarri Harris (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 11th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 4th Comments: 3 starters back from a Final 4 team, but 2 important pieces, Zach Edey and Lance Jones, are gone. Two biggest questions are, can Purdue make up for Edey’s numbers between Heide, Colvin, TKR, Smith, and Loyer, and can their guards step up on the defensive end? 4.Michigan Best Returning Player: Nimari Burnett Has to Make a Jump: Tre Donaldson (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Vladislav Goldin (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 3rd Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 12th Comments: Brought in some talent from the portal, notably Roddy Gayle Jr. (13.5 PPG at Ohio State), Rubin Jones (12.1 PPG at North Texas), Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG at Florida Atlantic), and Danny Wolf (14.1 PPG at Yale). PG Trey Donaldson (6.7 PPG at Auburn) may be key. The Wolverines have one of the better “hustle guys” in Will Tschetter who also shot 52% from 3 on low volume. 5.Oregon Best Returning Player: Jackson Shelstad Has to Make a Jump: Kwame Evans Jr Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: TJ Bamba (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 5th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 18th Comments: Jackson Shelstad is one of those kids most of us haven’t seen play due to the late start times of the Pac-12, but after watching a couple of full Oregon games on Youtube, he’s a legit PG. Tough and really good with the ball in his hands. The Ducks have a nice core coming back off a 24-12 (12-8, 4th in the Pac-12) year which gained them a tournament bid, and did pretty well in the portal bring in Brandon Angel (13.0 PPG at Stanford), Supreme Cook (10.5 PPG at Georgetown), and TJ Bamba (10.1 PPG at Villanova) 6.Michigan State Best Returning Player: Jaden Akins Has to Make a Jump: Xavier Booker Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Frankie Fidler (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 13th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 3rd Comments: Izzo has some nice pieces in Akins and Holloman, but neither Carson Cooper or Jaxon Kohler have proven to be reliable 5s. Both Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears have to live up to their enormous potential and Frankie Fidler has to prove he can be a big time scorer at the P6 level for Sparty to compete at the top of the Big 10. 7.Ohio State Best Returning Player: Bruce Thornton Has to Make a Jump: Aaron Bradshaw (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Meechie Johnson (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 14th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 10th Comments: Have 2 returning starters in Bruce Thronton, who is one of the better PGs in the league, and “glue guy” Evan Mahaffey. Meechie Johnson makes his return after a solid year (14 PPG) at South Carolina. The Bucks are going to need portal transfers with potential like big man Aaron Bradshaw (4.9 PPG at Kentucky) and Sean Stewart (2.6 PPG at Duke) to step up. Micah Parrish (9.3 PPG at San Diego State) was a nice veteran addition who has played in a Final 4 and comes from a winning program. Devin Royal may make a sophomore jump. 8.Nebraska Best Returning Player: Brice Williams Has to Make a Jump: Berke Buyuktuncel (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Connor Essegian (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 2nd Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 13th Comments: Bring back 2 solid players in Brice Williams and Cleveland Gary but losing Keisei Tominaga (graduation) and Rienk Mast (injury) looms large. 7 footer Braxton Meah (5.3 PPG at Washington) needs to step up, as well as ballyhooed international player Berke Buyuktuncel (4.5 PPG at UCLA). Big 10 transfers Gavin Griffiths (5.8 PPG at Rutgers), Ahron Ulis (6.1 PPG at Iowa in 2022-23), and Connor Essegian (3.2 PPG at Wisconsin) have to fulfill some of the promise they’ve shown. Fred Hoiberg was Co-Big 10 Coach of the Year last year. 9.Illinois Best Returning Player: Ty Rodgers Has to Make a Jump: Tre White (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Kasparas Jakucionis (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 9th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 2nd Comments: Lots of question marks here. One returning starter in Ty Rodgers, who’s an all around decent player, but limited on the offensive end. Long on potential in both their portal haul and high school recruiting, but a lot of things have to go right from the Illini to compete at the top of the conference. Tre White (12.3 PPG at Louisville) and Kylan Boswell (9.6 PPG at Arizona) both have to make a step forward, and Ben Humrichous (14.7 PPG at Evansville) needs to prove it at the P6 level. And asking freshmen Tomislav Ivisic (NR), Kasparas Jakucionis (NR), and Will Riley (No. 24 in ESPN 100 for 2025) to take on major roles just seems like a lot. 10.Iowa Best Returning Player: Payton Sandfort Has to Make a Jump: Josh Dix Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Seydou Traore (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 16th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 11th Comments: The Hawkeyes return 2 of the best shooters in the Big 10 with Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix. They also return Co-Big 10 Freshman of the Year in big man Owen Freeman. The questions are who replaces Tony Perkins’ toughness, leadership, and scoring. Former Illinois Mr Basketball and Freeman’s high school teammate Brock Harding showed some promise as a freshman last year. Needs a jump from sophs Pryce Sandfort (2.3 PPG) and Ladji Dembele (2.2 PPG) and solid contributions from transfers Seydou Traore (11.8 PPG at Manhattan) and Drew Thelwell (10.0 PPG at Morehead State) to compete in the top half of the Big 10. 11.Maryland Best Returning Player: Julian Reese Has to Make a Jump: DeShawn Harris-Smith Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ja'Kobi Gillespie (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 8th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 9th Comments: The Terps return All Big 10 Honorable Mention big Julian Reese, along with starters Jordan Geronimo and DeShawn Harris-Smith, who was touted as the Pre-Season Big 10 Freshman of the Year last fall, along with solid bench piece Jahari Long. Interesting portal haul with Ja'Kobi Gillespie (17.2 PPG at Belmont), Rodney Rice (7.4 PPG at Virginia Tech in 2022-23), and Selton Miguel (14.7 PPG at South Florida). How much will 5 star freshman Derick Queen contribute and can Kevin Willard turn around last seasons disappointing finish 16-17 (7-13, 12th in Big 10) 12.Penn State Best Returning Player: Ace Baldwin Jr Has to Make a Jump: Freddie Dilione V (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Miles Goodman (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 12th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 5th Comments: One really good piece in Ace Baldwin Jr. (14.2 PPG) who was 3rd Team All Big 10 and the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, 2 pretty good pieces in Zach Hicks (8.4 PPG) and Nick Kern Jr. (8.7 PPG) who were both Big 10 Honorable Mention, and guys who have never fulfilled their potential in UNC transfers from a year ago Puff Johnson (7.3 PPG) and D'Marco Dunn (6.8 PPG). Add former top 50 recruit Freddie Dilione V (1.7 PPG at Tennessee) to the same category as those 2. 13.Northwestern Best Returning Player: Brooks Barnhizer Has to Make a Jump: Nick Martinelli Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Jalen Leach (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 10th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 15th Comments: Indiana nemesis Boo Buie is gone, but Northwestern returns 3 starters in Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 PPG), Ty Berry (11.6 PPG 43% from 3), and serviceable big Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG). Nick Martinelli (8.8 PPG) is a good “hustle guy” from a team that finished 3rd in the Big 10 and made the NCAA Tournament in consecutive years for the first time in their history. Jalen Leach (16.2 PPG at Fairfield) and Keenan Fitzmorris (10.9 PPG at Stony Brook) are good portal additions for Chris Collins offense. 14.Wisconsin Best Returning Player: Steven Crowl Has to Make a Jump: John Blackwell Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Camren Hunter (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 18th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 14th Comments: Not a good off season for Bucky losing All Big 10 2nd Team wing AJ Storr and Honorable Mention Chucky Hepburn to the portal. Steven Crowl is a reliable big, and Max Klesmit, who torched IU for 26 in Madison last year, both return as starters. John Blackwell made the Big 10 All Freshman team and should take on a bigger roll. Transfers Camren Hunter (16.9 PPG at Central Arkansas in 2022-23…sat out with injury last year) and Xavier Amos (13.8 PPG at Northern Illinois) have to step up big for the Badgers. 15.USC Best Returning Player: Harrison Hornery (ONLY returning player) Has to Make a Jump: Clark Slajchert (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Desmond Claude (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 4th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 6th Comments: Probably the team with the most question marks coming into the season. The only returning player is lightly used Harrison Hornery (3 PPG). A boatload of portal transfers, but only two, Terrance Williams II (12.4 PPG at Michigan) and the very talented Desmond Claude (16.6 PPG at Xavier) with P6 experience, but 8 others who averaged double digits at Mid-Major schools. Last year at Arkansas, new USC coach Eric Musselman, who I know has a lot of fans here, couldn’t get another patchwork of portal talent to play well enough to compete in the SEC. Maybe he can in SoCal? 16.Rutgers Best Returning Player: Jeremiah Williams Has to Make a Jump: Emmanual Ogbole Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ace Bailey (FR) Big 10 Portal Rank: 15th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 1st Comments: A lot depends on the 2 highly rated freshmen, Ace Baily and Dylan Harper, and how well their games translate to the college level. Rutgers returns starters Jeremiah Williams (12.2 PPG), who can be dynamic but inconsistent, and Jamichael Davis (5.6 PPG) but will have to rely on holdover big Emmanuel Ogbole (2.1 PPG) to start in a very thin frountcourt and transfer Jordan Derkack (17.0 PPG at Merrimack) to provide depth. Biggest portal get, Tyson Acuff (21.7 PPG at Eastern Michigan) is out with a broken foot for 3 months. And I’m not totally sold on Coach Steve Pikiell who is 132-123 overall and 63-95 in conference in his 8 years with the Scalet Knights and has never finished above 4th in the Big 10. 17.Washington Best Returning Player: Franck Kepnang Has to Make a Jump: DJ Davis (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Great Osobor (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 7th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 7th Comments: Another team with not much coming back, but a nice transfer portal haul for rookie Big 10 coach Danny Sprinkle, who has been to 3 straight NCAA Tournaments (21-22 and 22-23 with Montana State, and last year with Utah State) and has an overall wining percentage of 69%. Some interesting portal pickups in Great Osobor (17.7 PPG at Utah State), Mekhi Mason (14.0 PPG at Rice), DJ Davis (13.5 PPG at Butler), and Tyler Harris (12.1 PPG at Portland). They, along with heralded freshman PG Zoon Diallo look to make the Huskies competitive in the Big 10. 18.Minnesota Best Returning Player: Dawson Garcia Has to Make a Jump: Caleb Williams (Portal) Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Lu'Cye Patterson (Portal) Big 10 Portal Rank: 17th Big 10 Recruiting Rank: 16th Comments: Minnesota Coach Ben Johnson just can’t seem to keep a team together long enough to succeed. Losing big Pharel Payne and Big 10 Honorable Mention PG Elijah Hawkins to the portal, and All Big 10 Freshman Cam Christie to the NBA from a team that, after being picked last in the Big 10 last year but finishing at 9-11 tying for 9th, hurt. He did retain start big man Dawson Garcia, the Gophers top scorer and rebounder last year, and starter Mike Mitchell Jr. (10.2 PPG) and bench piece “hustle guy” Parker Fox. Add portal transfers Caleb Williams (19.6 PPG at Macalester - D-III), Frank Mitchell (12.1 PPG at Canisius), Femi Odukale (10.7 PPG at New Mexico State), and promising Senior guard Lu'Cye Patterson (14.6 PPG at Charlotte). Maybe they can surprise again? I think you have Rutgers way to low. I see them finishing in the top 7 1) Purdue 2) IU 3) UCLA That would be my top 3 Quote
IUFLA Posted August 16, 2024 Author Report Posted August 16, 2024 1 hour ago, IU Scott said: I think you have Rutgers way to low. I see them finishing in the top 7 1) Purdue 2) IU 3) UCLA That would be my top 3 As far as Rutgers goes, I guess I just don't like counting on freshmen all that much much... As for Purdue vs IU I think Painter will pretty much have to play smaller. I don't think Berg or Jacobsen will see that much time...If they do, Ballo vs either one is a mismatch in our favor...And while I think TKR is a talented kid, I think with Reneau we have the edge there as well...Mgbako vs Heide? I like us there, too... Until we see Rice and Carlyle in action, I'll concede the backcourt, at least on the offensive end, to Purdue...And I think IU is much deeper than the Boilers... 3 Quote
13th&Jackson Posted August 16, 2024 Report Posted August 16, 2024 On paper, IU’s glaring weakness is still perimeter shooting. 124 D1 teams shot 35% or better from 3 last season. IU has two players on this years roster who were 35% or better (Leal and Goode) who combined for 8 ppg. Quote
IU Scott Posted August 17, 2024 Report Posted August 17, 2024 19 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said: On paper, IU’s glaring weakness is still perimeter shooting. 124 D1 teams shot 35% or better from 3 last season. IU has two players on this years roster who were 35% or better (Leal and Goode) who combined for 8 ppg. I think MM will hit 35%+ this year and Rice and Carlisle will be better this year as well. Hopefully with less pressure on Galloway to do more he will be better shooting this year Quote
IUFLA Posted August 17, 2024 Author Report Posted August 17, 2024 33 minutes ago, IU Scott said: I think MM will hit 35%+ this year and Rice and Carlisle will be better this year as well. Hopefully with less pressure on Galloway to do more he will be better shooting this year Mgbako was at 38% in Big 10 play...I'll take that... 2 Quote
IU Scott Posted August 17, 2024 Report Posted August 17, 2024 1 minute ago, IUFLA said: Mgbako was at 38% in Big 10 play...I'll take that... No doubt, people tend to forget that 1 Quote
BruceDouglas Posted August 18, 2024 Report Posted August 18, 2024 Nice job with the write-up. Also FYI Jakucionis (36) and Ivisic (51) have received 247 rankings now. Also Riley is #12 in ESPN's 2024 rankings after his re-class. 1 Quote
Parakeet Jones Posted August 18, 2024 Report Posted August 18, 2024 The thing I want to study before making any predictions is who team’s single and double plays are against. That is a big factor every year. We got the short end of the stick in that regard two years ago or the title race might have been closer. Last year we couldn’t take advantage of what should have been a more manageable slate. It made that 10-10 look better than it was. 1 Quote
Kdug Posted August 18, 2024 Report Posted August 18, 2024 On 8/16/2024 at 3:06 PM, IU Scott said: I think you have Rutgers way to low. I see them finishing in the top 7 1) Purdue 2) IU 3) UCLA That would be my top 3 Agreed with you on Rutgers, I think they could be really good this year. They have an elite defense practically every year, and imo that’s due to their system - so I’d expect that to continue this year. Their issue has been the offense has been bad to terrible most years. With the freshman they have coming in, I don’t see how they’re not at least solid on offense, which is really all they need to be a good team. 1 Quote
IUFLA Posted August 19, 2024 Author Report Posted August 19, 2024 Goodman has us as 5th... Makes me even more confident in my pick 🙂 1 Quote
IUFLA Posted August 19, 2024 Author Report Posted August 19, 2024 (edited) 6 hours ago, BruceDouglas said: Nice job with the write-up. Also FYI Jakucionis (36) and Ivisic (51) have received 247 rankings now. Also Riley is #12 in ESPN's 2024 rankings after his re-class. Duly noted and edited... 5 hours ago, Parakeet Jones said: The thing I want to study before making any predictions is who team’s single and double plays are against. That is a big factor every year. We got the short end of the stick in that regard two years ago or the title race might have been closer. Last year we couldn’t take advantage of what should have been a more manageable slate. It made that 10-10 look better than it was. I actually went through the schedule and noted the home/away/both...the only variable would be when of course...I'll take another look when the conference schedule is finalized... Edited August 19, 2024 by IUFLA Quote
94hoosier Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 1 hour ago, IUFLA said: Goodman has us as 5th... Makes me even more confident in my pick 🙂 that would be disappointing i’ll take top 3 Quote
94hoosier Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 2 hours ago, Kdug said: Agreed with you on Rutgers, I think they could be really good this year. They have an elite defense practically every year, and imo that’s due to their system - so I’d expect that to continue this year. Their issue has been the offense has been bad to terrible most years. With the freshman they have coming in, I don’t see how they’re not at least solid on offense, which is really all they need to be a good team. if they finish top 8 would be surprised no returning players that played major minutes freshman will be freshman 1 Quote
IUFLA Posted August 19, 2024 Author Report Posted August 19, 2024 Just a few of the reasons that I think Rutgers will struggle... Their only 2 returning starters (Jerimiah Williams and Jamichael Davis) shot 13-60 from 3 point land (22%) last year. They added Jordan Derkack (28% from 3 last year at Merrimack), and Tyson Acuff (30% last year at Eastern Michigan). PJ Hayes (University of San Diego) and Zach Martini (Princeton) both shot near 40% from 3, but Big 10 defenses will be a little more challenging...they're both basically Luke Goode clones whose strength is shooting the ball... As for the 2 freshmen, yes, I think they'll both be good players eventually...But here's one NBA scouting report on the weaknesses in Harper's game... "Isn’t an incredibly explosive leaper or possesses high-level quickness. While he scores a lot in the paint, he’s usually not finishing above the rim. May struggle defending quicker players on the perimeter at the next level. Gets beat on closeouts at times … Capable of shooting from distance and shows shooting touch but lacks some arc and can improve 3PT consistency. Shot 33.3% 3PT% on 4.5 3PT attempts per game over the Nike EYBL and 25% 3PT% on 2.9 3PT attempts per game at the U19 World Cup in 2023 … Can improve as a free throw shooter. Shot 59.1% FT% over the Nike EYBL in 2023 … Needs more consistency on midrange pull-up … Can improve using right hand at the rim. Even when driving right, he looks to come back to finish with his left hand. Can improve finishing technique as some drives are forced and gets caught in the crowd …" And Bailey... "Has improved strength over his senior year but still looking to fill out his body frame … While he can get a shot off nearly whenever he wants, he can work on being more efficient scoring with better shot selection and look to expand on his offensive game. Can force offense at times, sometimes predetermining his moves and shot selection rather than feeling out the flow of the game or how the defense is playing him … 3PT shot has inconsistent arc. He’s definitely capable of shooting from distance but he’s more on the streaky side than knockdown at this time. Can smooth out release on pull-ups off the dribble … Can improve as a ball-handler. Dribbles high and plays a bit too upright. Crossovers and changing directions with the ball aren’t always smooth. Lacks wiggle trying to get by his guy, which often ends up with a midrange step-back. Tends to settle on jump shots, sometimes off-balanced and would like to see more scoring in the paint. Can be turnover prone … Good tools defensively but can tighten up on that end. There are times he seems content with being solid on closeouts and contests but can look to make the shooter more uncomfortable going into their shot and releasing, there are other times he bites for shot fakes and leaves his feet on closeouts … Still has a way to go maturing and improving his basketball IQ …" Couple that with a very thin inside presence, and what will probably be a defensive drop of from the Rutgers norm, and I see a lot of reason for concern... Quote
Kdug Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 1 hour ago, IUFLA said: Just a few of the reasons that I think Rutgers will struggle... Their only 2 returning starters (Jerimiah Williams and Jamichael Davis) shot 13-60 from 3 point land (22%) last year. They added Jordan Derkack (28% from 3 last year at Merrimack), and Tyson Acuff (30% last year at Eastern Michigan). PJ Hayes (University of San Diego) and Zach Martini (Princeton) both shot near 40% from 3, but Big 10 defenses will be a little more challenging...they're both basically Luke Goode clones whose strength is shooting the ball... As for the 2 freshmen, yes, I think they'll both be good players eventually...But here's one NBA scouting report on the weaknesses in Harper's game... "Isn’t an incredibly explosive leaper or possesses high-level quickness. While he scores a lot in the paint, he’s usually not finishing above the rim. May struggle defending quicker players on the perimeter at the next level. Gets beat on closeouts at times … Capable of shooting from distance and shows shooting touch but lacks some arc and can improve 3PT consistency. Shot 33.3% 3PT% on 4.5 3PT attempts per game over the Nike EYBL and 25% 3PT% on 2.9 3PT attempts per game at the U19 World Cup in 2023 … Can improve as a free throw shooter. Shot 59.1% FT% over the Nike EYBL in 2023 … Needs more consistency on midrange pull-up … Can improve using right hand at the rim. Even when driving right, he looks to come back to finish with his left hand. Can improve finishing technique as some drives are forced and gets caught in the crowd …" And Bailey... "Has improved strength over his senior year but still looking to fill out his body frame … While he can get a shot off nearly whenever he wants, he can work on being more efficient scoring with better shot selection and look to expand on his offensive game. Can force offense at times, sometimes predetermining his moves and shot selection rather than feeling out the flow of the game or how the defense is playing him … 3PT shot has inconsistent arc. He’s definitely capable of shooting from distance but he’s more on the streaky side than knockdown at this time. Can smooth out release on pull-ups off the dribble … Can improve as a ball-handler. Dribbles high and plays a bit too upright. Crossovers and changing directions with the ball aren’t always smooth. Lacks wiggle trying to get by his guy, which often ends up with a midrange step-back. Tends to settle on jump shots, sometimes off-balanced and would like to see more scoring in the paint. Can be turnover prone … Good tools defensively but can tighten up on that end. There are times he seems content with being solid on closeouts and contests but can look to make the shooter more uncomfortable going into their shot and releasing, there are other times he bites for shot fakes and leaves his feet on closeouts … Still has a way to go maturing and improving his basketball IQ …" Couple that with a very thin inside presence, and what will probably be a defensive drop of from the Rutgers norm, and I see a lot of reason for concern... You make valid points, but I think you’re underselling Harper and Bailey. As of now, both are projected to be top 5 picks in next year’s draft, while no other Big Ten team has anyone projected in the top 20. The last time the Big Ten had a freshman picked in the top 5 was D’Angelo Russell in 2015. The only time a Big Ten team had two freshman go in the top 5 was OSU with Oden and Connelly before that. That’s the caliber of player these guys are projected to be (key word being projected). Rutgers certainly has some question marks like most teams do. But this year is the first where they’ve had NBA caliber talent. 3 Quote
IUFLA Posted August 19, 2024 Author Report Posted August 19, 2024 42 minutes ago, Kdug said: You make valid points, but I think you’re underselling Harper and Bailey. As of now, both are projected to be top 5 picks in next year’s draft, while no other Big Ten team has anyone projected in the top 20. The last time the Big Ten had a freshman picked in the top 5 was D’Angelo Russell in 2015. The only time a Big Ten team had two freshman go in the top 5 was OSU with Oden and Connelly before that. That’s the caliber of player these guys are projected to be (key word being projected). Rutgers certainly has some question marks like most teams do. But this year is the first where they’ve had NBA caliber talent. It wouldn't be the first time I've undervalued freshmen I do think Harper gets a little bit of a shove with his NBA pedigree...I think anyone who has a dad that played in the league does... I was looing at their pre-conference schedule, and beyond the Players First Tournament in Vegas with Houston, Notre Dame, and Alabama, it's a little weak...Be hard to tell how good they'll be by the time the conference play starts... Quote
Purdue7 Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 On 8/16/2024 at 4:30 PM, IUFLA said: As far as Rutgers goes, I guess I just don't like counting on freshmen all that much much... As for Purdue vs IU I think Painter will pretty much have to play smaller. I don't think Berg or Jacobsen will see that much time...If they do, Ballo vs either one is a mismatch in our favor...And while I think TKR is a talented kid, I think with Reneau we have the edge there as well...Mgbako vs Heide? I like us there, too... Until we see Rice and Carlyle in action, I'll concede the backcourt, at least on the offensive end, to Purdue...And I think IU is much deeper than the Boilers... If Berg or Jacobsen don’t step up by Big Ten time Purdue will be 4-8 range Both coaches have plenty of talent to mold before march TKR & Renau are really similar Skilled low post 4’s who don’t rebound or defend very well like Michigan at 4 Illini top 3? NW, Bucky & Huskers…Sparty ? Anywhere from 6 to 16???? Freshman on the road in the Big Ten…are a box of chocolates JHS was best I’ve ever seen in Mackey….he had a Stu Robinson game for you old heads Quote
Kdug Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 1 hour ago, IUFLA said: It wouldn't be the first time I've undervalued freshmen I do think Harper gets a little bit of a shove with his NBA pedigree...I think anyone who has a dad that played in the league does... I was looing at their pre-conference schedule, and beyond the Players First Tournament in Vegas with Houston, Notre Dame, and Alabama, it's a little weak...Be hard to tell how good they'll be by the time the conference play starts... I completely understand being skeptical of freshman. And to be fair, predicting how freshman will perform is very difficult. But if Harper and Bailey are as good as the “experts” think, Rutgers should be pretty good. If they don’t live up to the hype, your prediction might not be too far off. 1 Quote
94hoosier Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 1 hour ago, Kdug said: I completely understand being skeptical of freshman. And to be fair, predicting how freshman will perform is very difficult. But if Harper and Bailey are as good as the “experts” think, Rutgers should be pretty good. If they don’t live up to the hype, your prediction might not be too far off. it’s not just harper and bailey. Not sure the supporting cast is good enough. Even if Harper and Bailey live up to the hype not sure they are that good because of the supporting cast. Then throw in the freshman wall, life and the road. Not sure you can count on those two to come up big every night. Might be wrong but think Rutgers as a whole is getting overrated. 1 Quote
Stlboiler23 Posted August 19, 2024 Report Posted August 19, 2024 On 8/16/2024 at 4:30 PM, IUFLA said: As far as Rutgers goes, I guess I just don't like counting on freshmen all that much much... As for Purdue vs IU I think Painter will pretty much have to play smaller. I don't think Berg or Jacobsen will see that much time...If they do, Ballo vs either one is a mismatch in our favor...And while I think TKR is a talented kid, I think with Reneau we have the edge there as well...Mgbako vs Heide? I like us there, too... Until we see Rice and Carlyle in action, I'll concede the backcourt, at least on the offensive end, to Purdue...And I think IU is much deeper than the Boilers... Jacobsen will likely have to play a decent amount even if he’s not ready. We’ll need a rim protector and TKR isn’t that guy. Our perimeter defense should be better but interior defense will need a shot blocker like Jacobsen. I don’t think Berg will play much. I think TKR and Reneau are pretty even tbh. Mgbako versus Heide will be interesting. Heidi is the better defender but Mgbako is a better offensive player at least at this time. Quote
IUFLA Posted August 20, 2024 Author Report Posted August 20, 2024 3 hours ago, Stlboiler23 said: Jacobsen will likely have to play a decent amount even if he’s not ready. We’ll need a rim protector and TKR isn’t that guy. Our perimeter defense should be better but interior defense will need a shot blocker like Jacobsen. I don’t think Berg will play much. I think TKR and Reneau are pretty even tbh. Mgbako versus Heide will be interesting. Heidi is the better defender but Mgbako is a better offensive player at least at this time. Can't wait for that first Ballo/Jacobsen matchup...can't wait 🙂 1 1 Quote
IUFLA Posted September 9, 2024 Author Report Posted September 9, 2024 Blue Ribbon says Maryland's Jahari Long is out for the year due to the injury he sustained in their last game of the year, but I haven't been able to verify that... He came off the bench in our win against them in College Park last year and kept them in the game... Quote
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