Blue Ribbon picks us to finish 8th in the B1G....

[Hoosierhoopster]

https://www.insidethehall.com/2020/10/13/indiana-picked-to-finish-8th-in-big-ten-by-blue-ribbon-college-basketball-yearbook/

The B1G is going to be tough, but I'm calling BS.

Out of curiosity, can anyone find a link on how accurate/inaccurate Blue Ribbon's pre-season predictions have been?

It's often recognized that, outside the #1 pre-season ranked team, pre-season rankings are just bad.

[tdhoosier]

We were up in arms last year when sporting service were ranking us lower than 7th....and we finished 10th.

Sooner or later this team is going to break out. Hopefully it will be this year. I think they're better than 8th, but I understand why we're being projected lower by some:

- how big of an impact will Lander have?
- will we have a consistent scorer
- will we have any shooters? (Yes,I mean 'any')
- will Rob, Race and Hunter develop into legit B1G threats?

Really, the only 'proven' things we have on this team are TJD and a team defense trending in the right direction. Unless I'm missing something else that will leave our B1G opponents shaking in their pants. Heck, we've already lost our most intimidating thing, which is our home crowd. 

We still have more questions than answers, IMO. And since I can't even convince myself we'll be top 5, I'm not blinking an eye at low pre-season rankings. That said, I will admit we have a high ceiling, but our floor is still pretty low. 

[FKIM01]

[Parakeet Jones]

This seems to be pretty much in line with other prognostications for the B1G I have seen.  One difference I thought was interesting was that they had Michigan behind us (which I agree with), but Minnesota ahead of us (which I disagree with).  

There seems to be some consensus with some combination of Iowa, MSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin as the top four.  From five on is where you start to see variations in predictions.  If those truly are the top four, it looks like we will be battling Michigan, OSU, and Rutgers for positioning in the 5-8 range.  I think every pre-season B1G poll I have seen has OSU ahead of us, but I have a harder time with that one than any other team that usually seems to get put ahead of us.  

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

We were up in arms last year when sporting service were ranking us lower than 7th....and we finished 10th.

Sooner or later this team is going to break out. Hopefully it will be this year. I think they're better than 8th, but I understand why we're being projected lower by some:

- how big of an impact will Lander have?
- will we have a consistent scorer
- will we have any shooters? (Yes,I mean 'any')
- will Rob, Race and Hunter develop into legit B1G threats?

Really, the only 'proven' things we have on this team are TJD and a team defense trending in the right direction. Unless I'm missing something else that will leave our B1G opponents shaking in their pants. Heck, we've already lost our most intimidating thing, which is our home crowd. 

We still have more questions than answers, IMO. And since I can't even convince myself we'll be top 5, I'm not blinking an eye at low pre-season rankings. That said, I will admit we have a high ceiling, but our floor is still pretty low. 

Fair, but a couple of points

- proven things include the offense trending in the right direction, it rose considerably over the last 10 games

- Al is a consistently good outside shooter, he's already proven that

- Funny thing about the home crowd, the Hall has not been intimidating over the past 3-4 seasons, if anything, we've been getting screwed by B1G refs in the Hall, in stark contrast to the treatment given to Wisconsin and MSU in particular in their homes

- Race's production grew consistently over the last 10 games or so of last season along with his minutes. It's fair to ask whether he will develop into a B1G threat, but

-- our record last year -- strong over the end of the season -- also reflected earlier losses with Brunk playing significantly more minutes than he did over the last 10 or so games. That should continue into this season, along with the addition of our new 5-star point guard.

Biggest question mark to me:

1) whether/to what extent Hunter develops -- and is given the opportunity -- to be a consistent outside scorer with good minutes. Hey CAM -- stop pulling Hunter if he makes a defensive mistake. You can't develop shooting consistency when you pull the people who shoot, shooters need consistent floor time including for rhythm; and

2) whether/to what extent CAM will allow and foster outside shooting. His comments to me so far are a bit concerning. He talks about improving our offense through limiting TO's (we're already at 12, limiting to 10-11 is not going to vamp up our offense), and creating more spacing, through guard / wing play, to allow TJD more room to create offense, while saying we won't be necessarily shooting a lot of 3's. Well, that could be OK, but it might not. You need the outside game to open up spacing, period. We won't be shooting low percentage long 2's, so how exactly is the guard play going to create spacing if not shooting from deep? If we're integrating more slashing (impossible with Justin from the "wing") than, maybe. But man, CAM, stop limiting outside shooting. Wake up and say hello to modern college ball, please (and I'm a fan of CAM).

[5fouls]

After extensive analysis of every Big Ten team (performed in less than 3 seconds per team), I have concluded that IU could finish 8th, but it is only a .0714285714 chance (1 in 14).  For 100% certainty, let's just say that IU will not finish 23rd.

 

[NCHoosier32]

hate that i'm always the negative guy, BUT... i think this is at least the 3rd year in a row that all of the experts pick us low in the B1G, most people on here think we'll finish much higher, and we end up about where they say.  

[NotIThatLives]

It's very simple.  Respect is earned not given.  

The two main guys that either graduated or transferred, say what you want about them, one shot 37.7% from three for his career starting 31 times.  He has been replaced in talent but the question remains if the shooting has been replaced.  The other started all 32 games last year and has 73 career starts.  We are assuming Race and Jerome will step in a provide more than Smith in production.  

[Lostin76]

3 hours ago, NCHoosier32 said:

hate that i'm always the negative guy, BUT... i think this is at least the 3rd year in a row that all of the experts pick us low in the B1G, most people on here think we'll finish much higher, and we end up about where they say.  

Feels that way doesn't it? Maybe *this* is the year we buck those trends.

[DWB]

30 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

We are assuming Race and Jerome will step in a provide more than Smith in production.  

Personally, I think that is a slam dunk assumption (pun intended). If they don't out perform Smith, we'll be lucky to finish 8th.

[NotIThatLives]

2 minutes ago, DWB said:

Personally, I think that is a slam dunk assumption (pun intended). If they don't out perform Smith, we'll be lucky to finish 8th.

Just checked.  Jerome shot 40% from 3 the last 10 games.  8 for 20.  

Race averaged 12 mins a game on the season.  However the last 9 games, he never played less than 13 and was over 20, 6 of 9 games.  Race really took minutes from Brunk.  

Jerome is ideal in a 3 spot or really a stretch four if you want to play 3 guards as CAM has mentioned, Jerome and Geronimo at the 4 at times around the big.  

We all know Justin was out of position last year and can't shoot the ball.  No matter who is filling his spot on the floor, defenses will no longer beg them to shoot it and be sagging and double teaming TJD.  

[IU Scott]

I still think we will finish 5th this year

Iowa

UW

UI

MSU

IU

[FKIM01]

I just want to sweep Turdue so their dumb GBI fan forum will quit crowing about how long it's been.

[IowaHoosierFan]

3 hours ago, IU Scott said:

I still think we will finish 5th this year

Iowa

UW

UI

MSU

IU

I honestly think we're in that 4-7 range.  If landers is a beast and can shoot.  Hunter and Race make big jumps and RP and AD make incremental gain we could make a run at the top 3.  But the way crap has gone for us the last 20 years, i could also see us ending up around 8-10.

[IU Scott]

18 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I honestly think we're in that 4-7 range.  If landers is a beast and can shoot.  Hunter and Race make big jumps and RP and AD make incremental gain we could make a run at the top 3.  But the way crap has gone for us the last 20 years, i could also see us ending up around 8-10.

I see a lot people picking Rutgers above us but I think they will be hurt not having fans in the arena.  They were so good at home but was pretty bad on the road do they might have that home court advantage.

[Hoosierhoopster]

9 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

It's very simple.  Respect is earned not given.  

The two main guys that either graduated or transferred, say what you want about them, one shot 37.7% from three for his career starting 31 times.  He has been replaced in talent but the question remains if the shooting has been replaced.  The other started all 32 games last year and has 73 career starts.  We are assuming Race and Jerome will step in a provide more than Smith in production.  

Completely fair. But -

I like Green, always did -- but, he and CAM did not see eye to eye, they clashed, and CAM had trouble utilizing his game while Green had trouble playing to CAM's style. I liked what Smith brought defensively, he was a workhorse and when dialed in a very strong defender. But he was offensively limited and playing out of position. He was clearly not a wing, but that's where he was. With him on the offensive side of the floor we were limited, and easy to defend.

So those were two main guys, both had strengths and both had weaknesses. Can't say yet whether Race will be more impactful, but I would bet on it. He was playing around 20 mpg by year end and was playing well. He's a strong defender in his own right, and was better with the ball in his hands last season than Smith. Don't know yet how his offense will look with more focus, but I'm optimistic on him. 

Hunter was shooting North of 40% from deep by year end. Don't know yet if he's going to show that consistently with more floor time, but I am also optimistic on Hunter. He has so much promise, hate that his health situation caused him to lose a year, and play catch up. He will have to continue to grow his game, but he is already steadier offensively than Green, I think, more reliable from the standpoint of consistency and discipline. Green is clearly the better defender, and that is an area Hunter will have to grow especially playing in CAM's system.

[Seeking6]

6 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

I just want to sweep Turdue so their dumb GBI fan forum will quit crowing about how long it's been.

I think our series with them since 2000 is like 17-18 or something.....and there have been runs of 4-5+wins in a row from either program. Our turn is now. They know it as well as we do. 

[Inequality]

Lots to be excited about.

-Lander is lights out. Not extremely hot/cold like IU fans are used to. Very consistent. High IQ.

-Leal and Galloway can really shoot the rock and bring high energy. Also high IQ.

-Franklin, Hunter and Phinisee gearing up for breakout season. I think all 3 are going to be huge contributors. Just give us 5-10 pts each game fellas.

-Thompson and Brunk ready to battle down low. Team needs these guys defensively more than offensively.

-There is the obvious (TJD) and then there is Geronimo. Keep your eye on #22. B1G opponents will know his name.

I see plenty of firepower with this team. I’m hearing about comradery, finally. Yes! I think 80-85 pts per game comes easy this season with the various number of weapons available and currently healthy. 

I think, for me, the main difference maker is going to be the level of defensive energy and cohesion on that end of the floor. Mental strength and defensive awareness are my main concerns this season with the amount of new faces that will be able to contribute on the offensive end. How does this team respond when the going gets tough? What lineup will bring the balance needed on both ends of the floor?
 

[IowaHoosierFan]

3 hours ago, Inequality said:

Lots to be excited about.

-Lander is lights out. Not extremely hot/cold like IU fans are used to. Very consistent. High IQ.

-Leal and Galloway can really shoot the rock and bring high energy. Also high IQ.

-Franklin, Hunter and Phinisee gearing up for breakout season. I think all 3 are going to be huge contributors. Just give us 5-10 pts each game fellas.

-Thompson and Brunk ready to battle down low. Team needs these guys defensively more than offensively.

-There is the obvious (TJD) and then there is Geronimo. Keep your eye on #22. B1G opponents will know his name.

I see plenty of firepower with this team. I’m hearing about comradery, finally. Yes! I think 80-85 pts per game comes easy this season with the various number of weapons available and currently healthy. 

I think, for me, the main difference maker is going to be the level of defensive energy and cohesion on that end of the floor. Mental strength and defensive awareness are my main concerns this season with the amount of new faces that will be able to contribute on the offensive end. How does this team respond when the going gets tough? What lineup will bring the balance needed on both ends of the floor?
 

If al this is true and i don't see why it couldn't be.  Its now all going to come down to CAM.  This is his year to show he can coach.  I am not sure he can at this level.  I hope i am wrong.  I want big things from IU.  Sports are more exciting to me when IU is good

[NotIThatLives]

4 hours ago, Inequality said:

Franklin, Hunter and Phinisee gearing up for breakout season. I think all 3 are going to be huge contributors. Just give us 5-10 pts each game fellas.

 

Do you have this on authority?  I think Race and Franklin are the only ones that I remember CAM mentioning as having great off seasons or however it was worded.  

[NotIThatLives]

15 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Completely fair. But -

I like Green, always did -- but, he and CAM did not see eye to eye, they clashed, and CAM had trouble utilizing his game while Green had trouble playing to CAM's style. I liked what Smith brought defensively, he was a workhorse and when dialed in a very strong defender. But he was offensively limited and playing out of position. He was clearly not a wing, but that's where he was. With him on the offensive side of the floor we were limited, and easy to defend.

So those were two main guys, both had strengths and both had weaknesses. Can't say yet whether Race will be more impactful, but I would bet on it. He was playing around 20 mpg by year end and was playing well. He's a strong defender in his own right, and was better with the ball in his hands last season than Smith. Don't know yet how his offense will look with more focus, but I'm optimistic on him. 

Hunter was shooting North of 40% from deep by year end. Don't know yet if he's going to show that consistently with more floor time, but I am also optimistic on Hunter. He has so much promise, hate that his health situation caused him to lose a year, and play catch up. He will have to continue to grow his game, but he is already steadier offensively than Green, I think, more reliable from the standpoint of consistency and discipline. Green is clearly the better defender, and that is an area Hunter will have to grow especially playing in CAM's system.

Yep I'm with you.  Not sure if you saw my following post.  Here's a few snips.  

"Jerome shot 40% from 3 the last 10 games.  8 for 20.  

Race averaged 12 mins a game on the season.  However the last 9 games, he never played less than 13 and was over 20, 6 of 9 games.  Race really took minutes from Brunk."

Just to comment on your post.  Hopefully Race isn't playing the '3' spot.  He also took better care of the ball because he has a higher iq and rarely dribbled into traffic much less attempted to handle the ball like a guard like Smith tried at times.  

I think Hunter comes up big.  His defensive awareness and positioning was better as season progressed.  

 

[Hoosierhoopster]

53 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Do you have this on authority?  I think Race and Franklin are the only ones that I remember CAM mentioning as having great off seasons or however it was worded.  

Fwiw when asked in an interview in September, Brunk said both Race and Hunter have had great summers. Hopefully that pans out

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

If al this is true and i don't see why it couldn't be.  Its now all going to come down to CAM.  This is his year to show he can coach.  I am not sure he can at this level.  I hope i am wrong.  I want big things from IU.  Sports are more exciting to me when IU is good

The way I see it (JMO) it's not whether CAM can coach at this level, I think it's clear he can and has, and last year's team made the tourney but for COVID, it's more about whether he will adjust to more of a perimeter - oriented offense with better use of the arc once he has the shooters -- and I think he does now -- or whether he forces his idea of creating more spacing with more of a 3-guard look but without doing much more in outside shooting. I don't see how that works. I don't buy into just having more movement and slashing will open up TJD for significant increased offense. I think you need to use the 3-ball a fair amount more. That's what I'm watching fwiw.

[Hoosierhoopster]

19 hours ago, IU Scott said:

I see a lot people picking Rutgers above us but I think they will be hurt not having fans in the arena.  They were so good at home but was pretty bad on the road do they might have that home court advantage.

Interesting point. Will be interesting for sure to see how teams that have ridiculous home-court advantages (Minn, Wisconsin, et al.) do with absent or reduced home crowds.

[IowaHoosierFan]

7 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

The way I see it (JMO) it's not whether CAM can coach at this level, I think it's clear he can and has, and last year's team made the tourney but for COVID, it's more about whether he will adjust to more of a perimeter - oriented offense with better use of the arc once he has the shooters -- and I think he does now -- or whether he forces his idea of creating more spacing with more of a 3-guard look but without doing much more in outside shooting. I don't see how that works. I don't buy into just having more movement and slashing will open up TJD for significant increased offense. I think you need to use the 3-ball a fair amount more. That's what I'm watching fwiw.

I am still not sure he can coach at the big time level.  Yes we made the tourney but there are still alot of red flags on how he coachs.  Can he adjust at half, he hasn't so far, we always start the same 5 regardless of how they are doing.  Our defense never changes to adjust to the team we're playing, its Pack line and that it.  His subbing is wild and weird and doesn't always seem to make sense. 

I like him.  I want him to be successful.  he can recruit well as seen by the last couple years.  I am just waiting for it all to come together.  Can he be the leader of men and take them to the next level, or is he always going to be a coach who is only as soon as the greatness of this specific team.

Go IU