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The CFP

rico

By rico
in General Football Discussion

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Hoosier82

Hoosier82

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

Here's an update after today's games.  ALL of these things has to happen for us to not make a New Year's 6 game:

  • Coastal Carolina jumps us, even though we were both idle
  • 3 loss Iowa State stays ahead of us
  • 3 loss Florida stays ahead of us

Orange Bowl takes the top ACC available so we get the Citrus Bowl if the 3 loss teams stay ahead. Which they will. Which is criminal. Next year better be epic

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Leathernecks

Leathernecks

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hoosier82 said:

Orange Bowl takes the top ACC available so we get the Citrus Bowl if the 3 loss teams stay ahead. Which they will. Which is criminal. Next year better be epic

Yeah, I wasn't thinking about that part.  That's an absolutely asinine rule.  The 3rd place ACC team gets chosen over the 2nd place B1G team.  Absolutely stupid.

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olsontex

olsontex

Posted
Posted

Maybe 247 are right, maybe they're not.  I'm not convinced IU will be left out, but even if we are excluded it might not be a bad thing.  I also don't think Notre Dame will remain in the Top 4.  They just got destroyed by the 2nd best team in the country.  Their win earlier in the season against Clemson was against a backup QB and required overtime.  It's still an impressive win, but a win against Clemson without Lawrence is not a win against the 2nd best team in the country.  On the other hand, Texas A&M lost to the best team in the country in their second game of the season.  While it wasn't a close game, it surely wasn't the embarrassing blowout that ND suffered today.  I think the Aggies victory over Florida is at least as impressive as ND beating Clemson's backup QB, and they survived the toughest division in college football without a second loss.

For what it's worth here's my best (and admittedly optimistic) guess.

Sugar:  Alabama vs. Ohio State

Rose:  Clemson vs. Texas A&M

Orange:  Notre Dame vs. Florida (meets the ACC tie-in requirement)

Cotton:  Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Peach:  Cincinnati vs. North Carolina (I think NC is in regardless of ND taking the #2 ACC slot in Orange)

Fiesta:  Indiana vs. Oregon

I don't know why Iowa State would still be given the benefit of the doubt.  ISU is a 3-loss team in the 4th best conference.  If the thought is "the CFP committee placed them #6 last week so they must really like them", I have a different take on their reasoning.  I think it was intended to lock in the winner of the BIG 12 championship to the 6th seed.   

If we are in, our opponent is almost certainly Oregon.  In a perfect illustration of just how screwed up the CFP system is, I'd argue Indiana would get a far superior opponent by NOT receiving the final at-large bid.  A potential game against Auburn, Miami, Oklahoma State, or Texas would be a better scenario than facing a team forced in by contractual obligation who probably hasn't been mentioned even once in a CFP committee meeting.  Nevertheless, Oregon is a nationally respected program with skins on the wall so it's far from being the end of the world.

Final thought.  I remember last year how excited we were to be placed in a respectable bowl against an SEC team.  I also remember how offended Tennessee fans were to get stuck with lowly Indiana.  It was not a good look for a fan base, especially one that hadn't accomplished anything significant in recent memory (let's not be like them).  It's amazing how far we've risen in just one year.  I encourage everyone to just enjoy the fact that our team has officially arrived at a point were we are even having this conversation.  The future looks bright and we'll carry a ton of positive momentum into next season no matter how the bowls play out.  Let's stay classy and be respectful of whoever we play.

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Air Ball

Air Ball

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing that Notre Dame may have dropped out of the top 4 because of their poor showing yesterday against Clemson.  That and to avoid a third matchup between those two teams.

Texas A&M would then move from 5 to 3 against Clemson2.  Ohio State as 4 would play Alabama 1.

There will be teams ranked ahead of Indiana that have 2 or 3 losses.  It may be said that is because those losses were quality losses against ranked teams.  Of course, ignoring the fact that Indiana's only loss was against OSU by one touchdown with IU in possession at the end. Beating Wisconsin, who was favored by 2 touchdowns over IU, on the road means little to the committee.  And the fact that the B1G passed over Indiana and let OSU jump into the B1G Championship...resulted in a lowering of Indiana's perceived accomplishments.  Oh, well.  IU did not play in the final 2 weeks and that didn't help.

So, IU may be #11 and pushed out of the potential Fiesta for the Citrus.  Orlando is fine. Others have Auburn there with 4 losses.  Really?  Coach Malzahn was fired Sunday. Auburn has DC Steele serving as interim HC.   

I say anyone but Auburn, please.

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rico

rico

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I am looking at "flaws" other than # of games played.

Iowa St.---got beat at home by Louisiana by 17

Oklahoma---got beat at home by Kansas St.

Texas A&M---only has 2 wins over above .500 teams(Florida and Auburn)

IU---the B1G was down, but the Hoosiers have 3 wins over ranked teams.

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jv1972iu

jv1972iu

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, rico said:

I am looking at "flaws" other than # of games played.

Iowa St.---got beat at home by Louisiana by 17

Oklahoma---got beat at home by Kansas St.

Texas A&M---only has 2 wins over above .500 teams(Florida and Auburn)

IU---the B1G was down, but the Hoosiers have 3 wins over ranked teams.

I hear the committee quoting Tom Crean... "It's Indiana!".   So, we have to go out and beat whomever we face in whatever bowl game.  Then we have to do it again next year...and the next...and the next.  Only then will folks on the committee... and the general public BELIEVE that IU has turned a corner and isn't just lucky or a one year feel good story.

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Air Ball

Air Ball

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, rico said:

I am looking at "flaws" other than # of games played.

Iowa St.---got beat at home by Louisiana by 17

Oklahoma---got beat at home by Kansas St.

Texas A&M---only has 2 wins over above .500 teams(Florida and Auburn)

IU---the B1G was down, but the Hoosiers have 3 wins over ranked teams.

The committee may look at where teams are ranked at the end of the season.  Not when they are played way back a month ago or so.  Since that may be the case, then IU has not beaten 3 ranked teams.  IU is playing a backup QB now.  So, IU brand in football gets discounted.  Lucky to be at 11 even though the other polls have us at 7.  

Just win I say.

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jv1972iu

jv1972iu

Posted
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11 minutes ago, Air Ball said:

The committee may look at where teams are ranked at the end of the season.  Not when they are played way back a month ago or so.  Since that may be the case, then IU has not beaten 3 ranked teams.  IU is playing a backup QB now.  So, IU brand in football gets discounted.  Lucky to be at 11 even though the other polls have us at 7.  

Just win I say.

Everything changed when Penix went down.  He was the engine that made the offense go...that folks saw beat PSU, Michigan, MSU...and scare the crap out of OSU.  We lost our corvette and had to drive a sedan (no offense meant to Jake who did an admirable job defeating Wisconsin on the road).  And the pandemic caught up with the BIG and helped to muffle the momentum IU had created with the media...and the schedule with lost games.  We lost the buzz as games couldn't be played...

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FritzIam4IU

FritzIam4IU

Posted
Posted

No way Iowa State should be ranked ahead of IU.

Not sure what the comment about Florida means....if they are intending to pack it up and call it a season and refuse a bowl invite, I imagine we would be a NY6 team for sure. If Florida does play in a bowl, I would not be shocked if they are still ranked ahead of IU, despite losing the last two weeks and keeping IU out of NY6 bowl with Oregon and UNC getting in.

I'm hoping the committee has IU ranked in top 10 today and gives the Hoosiers a much deserved NY6 bowl game....but my gut is saying they will keep IU at 11 and have them as first team out and to the Citrus Bowl they will go.

My biggest issue is that if we swapped jerseys and it was UM, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Penn State with IU's resume I have no doubt the committee would have them ranked more in line with the AP or coaches poll and place them in a NY6 high profile bowl.

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Seeking6

Seeking6

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

I feel like losing last year's bowl game really motivated our team going into the offseason. I wonder if losing out on the B1G championship game and possibly a NY6 bowl could do the same. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

All day long.

As I said earlier not going to let whatever bowl game we get be a reason to put shade on the greatest season we've ever had. With that said if we get snubbed....won't be a bad thing for the off season. 

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