IU 5th, in Chicago Trib. B1G power rankings !

[milehiiu]

Who would have thought that, just a couple weeks back ?

Big Ten power rankings: Not just a two-team league after all.

[Proud2BAHoosier]

That's good and all, but I don't want the guys to read this. I want them to play with a chip on their shoulders

[rico]

Meh, they really haven't played anybody yet other than Michigan.

[Drroogh]

I was kinda, yeah whatever until I saw who was behind IU. Then I was like really, who has proven they are better. The BIG really is a mess this year.

[FW_Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

I was kinda, yeah whatever until I saw who was behind IU. Then I was like really, who has proven they are better. The BIG really is a mess this year.

Agreed.  As of right now, I would say 5th is where we should be ranked.  We had a pretty easy stretch to open conference play though.

[FW_Hoosier]

Some stats from Inside the Hall:

Through 6 conference games, IU is third in the Big Ten behind Purdue and OSU in points per possession allowed at 0.97.  IU is 6th in the Big Ten in turnover percentage in conference games with 16.9%.  Last year IU was dead last in the conference with a turnover percentage of 21.3%.

[HoagieRoll]

we'll see where they end up after this next six game gauntlet. 

Praying we can go .500

[milehiiu]

Agreed. On all counts..... however going back to my OP, and especially the way people were talking about our team just a couple weeks back.....I highly doubt, they would have ever predicted IU at 5th in anybody's power poll, at any time this season.  I am going to enjoy being there right now, considering what IU has gone through to get there. 

[addictedtoIU]

Rob Johnson looks happy. OSU and UM so far have exceeded expectations. We've got 12 conference games left and 5 of them are against the top 4.

[HoagieRoll]

7-5 rest of the way and stealing a couple W's in the B1G tourney would probably be enough to get a bid. I was pretty down after the IPFW game, but CAM has had them in every game since then. I'm letting myself think a little more long-term now that we've played consistent ball over the last couple weeks

 

[CauseThatsMyDJ]

9 minutes ago, HoagieRoll said:

7-5 rest of the way and stealing a couple W's in the B1G tourney would probably be enough to get a bid. I was pretty down after the IPFW game, but CAM has had them in every game since then. I'm letting myself think a little more long-term now that we've played consistent ball over the last couple weeks

 

Depends who the 7 wins are. If we go 0-fer with Purdue, MSU and OSU, don't count on a bid.

[Drroogh]

Yeah, as I said the BIG is a mess this year. There may  only be 4 bids to the conference this year!

[milehiiu]

18 minutes ago, HoagieRoll said:

7-5 rest of the way and stealing a couple W's in the B1G tourney would probably be enough to get a bid. I was pretty down after the IPFW game, but CAM has had them in every game since then. I'm letting myself think a little more long-term now that we've played consistent ball over the last couple weeks

 

I believe it was Clark Kellogg, during the game on Sunday, who talked about IU possibly making the dance. That really surprised me.  A couple weeks back, there was no way and nobody who would have been talking IU in the dance.  If anything, they would be saying things like another year out of the tournament.  Now...  I realize there is a long way to go.  However, instead of being on a game to game roller coaster, IU is on a three game win streak, which allows for a tournament discussion, without everybody shaking their heads. 

[rico]

11 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Yeah, as I said the BIG is a mess this year. There may  only be 4 bids to the conference this year!

At this point it looks like 4 are locks, barring a collapse.  But I see 5 teams making it.  Just don't know who that 5th team will be.

[Parakeet Jones]

Was texting a buddy after last night’s game about NCAA chances. I said 12-6 is a sure thing, 10-8 no way, and 11-7 is iffy. The two bad losses really killed us  

I know it’s a tremendous long shot but at least things are at a point where we feel like throwing out crazy scenarios. 

[IUDan93]

What I care most about is the development of the correct basketball culture at IU.  Whether we make the tourney or not, the most important thing is that CAM establishes his brand of basketball.  The last three games provides hope that we are on our way.  The style of play leads to success even with "lesser" talent and size.  When we don't play the way CAM preaches, we get drilled at home by a mid major by 20.  When we play the way we should we compete with most teams and should be a tourney team.  Mix the play we have seen the past 3 games with more skilled players (we already have a few), and we should be in great shape for a long time to come.

[5fouls]

12 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

Was texting a buddy after last night’s game about NCAA chances. I said 12-6 is a sure thing, 10-8 no way, and 11-7 is iffy. The two bad losses really killed us  

I know it’s a tremendous long shot but at least things are at a point where we feel like throwing out crazy scenarios. 

Let's look at those finishes a little more in depth.  For the sake of argument, assume a 1-1 record in the Big Ten Tournament.

11-7 and 4-2 currently

12-6 requires a 8-4 record the rest of the way, putting us as 19-11 headed into the BTT.   With my 1-1 assumption, the BTT leaves us a 20-12.  To me, with those 2 bad losses, that's iffy unless we are the clear cut 5th best team in the Conference.  Let's say it's between us and Maryland for 5th, the head to head or computer rankings could be the deciding factor.

11-7 requires a 7-5 record the rest of the way, putting us at 18-12 headed into the BTT.  With the 1-1 tournament assumption, that leaves us at 19-13.  No way our resume (bad losses, lack of quality wins, RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) gets us in.  With a 11-7 conference record, we need a big run in the BTT just to make a First Four game.

10-8 means 6-6 the rest of the way.  17-13 before BTT.  18-14 after.  Insert fork.

  

[KoB2011]

37 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Let's look at those finishes a little more in depth.  For the sake of argument, assume a 1-1 record in the Big Ten Tournament.

11-7 and 4-2 currently

12-6 requires a 8-4 record the rest of the way, putting us as 19-11 headed into the BTT.   With my 1-1 assumption, the BTT leaves us a 20-12.  To me, with those 2 bad losses, that's iffy unless we are the clear cut 5th best team in the Conference.  Let's say it's between us and Maryland for 5th, the head to head or computer rankings could be the deciding factor.

11-7 requires a 7-5 record the rest of the way, putting us at 18-12 headed into the BTT.  With the 1-1 tournament assumption, that leaves us at 19-13.  No way our resume (bad losses, lack of quality wins, RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc.) gets us in.  With a 11-7 conference record, we need a big run in the BTT just to make a First Four game.

10-8 means 6-6 the rest of the way.  17-13 before BTT.  18-14 after.  Insert fork.

  

Pretty spot on. I think we need two wins in BTT at 12-6 to feel safe or else 13-5 and one BTT win. Anything less and I think we are on the bubble. 

[Proud2BAHoosier]

If not in the dance... NIT wouldn't be too bad

[KoB2011]

4 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

If not in the dance... NIT wouldn't be too bad

Not at all. You can certainly build momentum as a program with a good NIT run. 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

That's good and all, but I don't want the guys to read this. I want them to play with a chip on their shoulders

Or... there's something to be said for self-confidence and believing that you belong.

 I see the beginning of this season as having been full of questions and doubts over how CAM wanted his team to play. As the season has progressed my impression is that there is a lot less confusion and a lot more certainty over what is being asked. 

Chip on the shoulder only goes so far. At some point the team has to act, and play like it belongs 

[BGleas]

1 hour ago, IUDan93 said:

What I care most about is the development of the correct basketball culture at IU.  Whether we make the tourney or not, the most important thing is that CAM establishes his brand of basketball.  The last three games provides hope that we are on our way.  The style of play leads to success even with "lesser" talent and size.  When we don't play the way CAM preaches, we get drilled at home by a mid major by 20.  When we play the way we should we compete with most teams and should be a tourney team.  Mix the play we have seen the past 3 games with more skilled players (we already have a few), and we should be in great shape for a long time to come.

What I've noticed and is encouraging over the last three games is that for whatever reason the team seems to finally be playing basketball instead of thinking it. Everything seems more natural. The defensive rotations, the ball movement, the understanding of where they're supposed to be and what they're supposed to do. It was mentioned during the broadcast, and it does in fact seem like the players and coaches are finally comfortable with one another. Everyone seems way more relaxed and free, especially on offense. It finally feels like a team with purpose, as opposed to a bunch of guys playing basketball together. 

How far that takes things the rest of the year, who knows. But for now it's fun to watch. 

[BGleas]

46 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Pretty spot on. I think we need two wins in BTT at 12-6 to feel safe or else 13-5 and one BTT win. Anything less and I think we are on the bubble. 

We'll also need some wins in that MSU, OSU, Purdue group. 

[Hoosierhoopster]

4 minutes ago, BGleas said:

What I've noticed and is encouraging over the last three games is that for whatever reason the team seems to finally be playing basketball instead of thinking it. Everything seems more natural. The defensive rotations, the ball movement, the understanding of where they're supposed to be and what they're supposed to do. It was mentioned during the broadcast, and it does in fact seem like the players and coaches are finally comfortable with one another. Everyone seems way more relaxed and free, especially on offense. It finally feels like a team with purpose, as opposed to a bunch of guys playing basketball together. 

How far that takes things the rest of the year, who knows. But for now it's fun to watch. 

I was thinking the same, and I think (just my impression) it's a combination of the team starting to settle into CAM's defensive sets / pack line, and half-court offense, and the added space to work with in having Smith on the floor. I don't think this is a tourney team, and do think the NIT would be perfectly fine this season, but I do think the gradual improvement has started to vamp up (and I flat out love what Morgan does in the middle of the zone). I don't know if I can say what a "fair" amount of time to take is for a team that lost several double-digit starters and is learning a new style and system under a new coach, or whether it should've happened sooner, but I do think they're really starting to "get it," and the overall play looks much more cohesive.

Of course, we may get destroyed at MSU, and they may need to pick themselves back up -- but that's OK in my book, so long as they continue to gradually improve, they're looking like a team now.

[BGleas]

8 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I was thinking the same, and I think (just my impression) it's a combination of the team starting to settle into CAM's defensive sets / pack line, and half-court offense, and the added space to work with in having Smith on the floor. I don't think this is a tourney team, and do think the NIT would be perfectly fine this season, but I do think the gradual improvement has started to vamp up (and I flat out love what Morgan does in the middle of the zone). I don't know if I can say what a "fair" amount of time to take is for a team that lost several double-digit starters and is learning a new style and system under a new coach, or whether it should've happened sooner, but I do think they're really starting to "get it," and the overall play looks much more cohesive.

Of course, we may get destroyed at MSU, and they may need to pick themselves back up -- but that's OK in my book, so long as they continue to gradually improve, they're looking like a team now.

I don't mean this to knock those guys and I'm not expecting this team to go on a Big Ten Title run whatsoever, but it's crazy to me how similar the Davis injury feels to the JBJ injury a few years ago. Again, not knocking those guys, I always hate when someone gets injured. But remember that team struggled with identity and early in the season there was a sort of sharing of guard duties with Yogi, JBJ and RoJo. Once JBJ went down it officially became "Yogi's team" and he ran with it. There's also no denying that it helped the defense. No knock on JBJ but It just changed things for the team. 

This year Davis and Morgan were kind of sharing the post touches, with Morgan clearly seeming to grasp things quicker and be more ready. Since Davis went down, the paint is now owned by Morgan and he has the freedom/room to operate as he needs to. As you mentioned, the resulting insertion of Smith in the lineup has allowed the team to play in more space, play faster on offense, etc., and defensively we're much quicker with rotations, etc. Similar to JBJ a couple years ago, it just has changed the way the team plays. 

I also agree that just because things look good now, that MSU road game is a tough challenge, and could be a bad (in terms of margin) loss. That won't mean the progress isn't real and can't be regained, MSU despite their struggles is a really, really talented team.