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Record Prediction Thread


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3 hours ago, IU Scott said:

37-0 and a national championship LOL!

I say we will win 22 or 23 games and go to the sweet 16

You forgot the Big ten tournament.  That's a minimum of 3 games, so if we won it all, we would end up playing 40.

As far as my prediction, I'll go:

  • 8-3 non-conference
  • 12-8 conference
  • 1-1 Big Ten Tournament

21-12 going into the post-season

 

 

Edited by 5fouls
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30 minutes ago, IUwins0708 said:

If, IF Jerome Hunter plays like he practices then lookout!!!!  I’m telling you if you didn’t know him or Romeo you wouldn’t be able to tell who is the higher ranked player. He’s a freak folks. ( That’s a good thing)

So, are you implying that McRoberts may not start?

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

You forgot the Big ten tournament.  That's a minimum of 3 games, so if we won it all, we would end up playing 40.

As far as my prediction, I'll go:

  • 8-3 non-conference
  • 12-8 conference
  • 1-1 Big Ten Tournament

21-12 going into the post-season

 

 

From way too high expectations last year to...way too low expectations this year?

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

You forgot the Big ten tournament.  That's a minimum of 3 games, so if we won it all, we would end up playing 40.

As far as my prediction, I'll go:

  • 8-3 non-conference
  • 12-8 conference
  • 1-1 Big Ten Tournament

21-12 going into the post-season

 

 

You must not be as high on Romeo as I thought.  Remember that we were 9-9 in conference last year but could've easily been 12-6.  We threw away games against Illinois, Wisconsin, and OSU and took PU and MSU to the wire.  Also, all the teams ahead of us lost a ton while we did not.  We're also adding what might be the best player in the B1G along with Hunter, Fitz, and Phinissee.  Your prediction is way off IMO.

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23 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

You must not be as high on Romeo as I thought.  Remember that we were 9-9 in conference last year but could've easily been 12-6.  We threw away games against Illinois, Wisconsin, and OSU and took PU and MSU to the wire.  Also, all the teams ahead of us lost a ton while we did not.  We're also adding what might be the best player in the B1G along with Hunter, Fitz, and Phinissee.  Your prediction is way off IMO.

Not an indictment of Romeo at all.  What I don't see on this team is a Yogi Ferrell / Victor Oladipo or a Tom Coverdale / Dane Fife / AJ Moye level of toughness/determination.  

Edited by 5fouls
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I'm really surprised by all these low win total predictions.  We have 2 of the best players in the conference in Morgan and Romeo.  We mostly lost average role players or players who basically everybody hated and talked about how terrible they were.  Another year older, and another year in Archie's system for returners should help too.

With this year's team, 22 or 23 wins should be the expectations for a coach who is average at best.  We all want Archie to be elite, and that's not 22/23 wins with this team.  I'll be disappointed if we don't win 24+ games.

Edited by Leathernecks
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10 hours ago, Leathernecks said:

I'm really surprised by all these low win total predictions.  We have 2 of the best players in the conference in Morgan and Romeo.  We mostly lost average role players or players who basically everybody hated and talked about how terrible they were.  Another year older, and another year in Archie's system for returners should help too.

With this year's team, 22 or 23 wins should be the expectations for a coach who is average at best.  We all want Archie to be elite, and that's not 22/23 wins with this team.  I'll be disappointed if we don't win 24+ games.

I think the letdown that was last season has everyone a little gun shy.  But I agree that if Archie is the guy, this team has to win 25+ games in the regular season and get a top 5 seed in the tournament.  Especially when you consider that it’s likely we take a step backward in 19-20 with the departures of Juwan and probably Romeo.

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3 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

I think the letdown that was last season has everyone a little gun shy.  But I agree that if Archie is the guy, this team has to win 25+ games in the regular season and get a top 5 seed in the tournament.  Especially when you consider that it’s likely we take a step backward in 19-20 with the departures of Juwan and probably Romeo.

I don't. Setting a 25-win bar in his second season and before we really have an idea about the rest of the B1G is a bit extreme, imo. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, sure, but a minimum 25? How will the point be handled this season, will Green show consistency and better decision-making, will a frosh, Rob, spend time at the point, will Al develop a jumper? Does Morgan make it through the season healthy? How's Romeo's wrist, is it just precautionary? Does Smith have the jump we're anticipating? Is this a veteran team? Not really. How will the team handle the January - February road trip? 

I see 25 as do-able, but not as simply expected.

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12 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Not an indictment of Romeo at all.  What I don't see on this team is a Yogi Ferrell / Victor Oladipo or a Tom Coverdale / Dane Fife / AJ Moye level of toughness/determination.  

McRoberts could easily fill a role like Fife had. It just needs to rub off, and Forrester is another kid with some infectious traits.Outgoing kind of unfazed type of kid. He doesn't have to see big minutes to rub off on the guys he goes against and plays with in practice every day so long as he is pushing the guys ahead of him for time. The team needs kids to rally around emotionally, I agree  I'm most comfy with Zach in terms of intensity we should expect to see down to a man.  I just hope he will get a few calls in his favor, which became a recurring narrative  despite his tendencies to get to the right place and getting set to make the right play most of the time.

24 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I don't. Setting a 25-win bar in his second season and before we really have an idea about the rest of the B1G is a bit extreme, imo. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, sure, but a minimum 25? How will the point be handled this season, will Green show consistency and better decision-making, will a frosh, Rob, spend time at the point, will Al develop a jumper? Does Morgan make it through the season healthy? How's Romeo's wrist, is it just precautionary? Does Smith have the jump we're anticipating? Is this a veteran team? Not really. How will the team handle the January - February road trip? 

I see 25 as do-able, but not as simply expected.

This team has 2 things last years didn't. Better top to bottom scoring and more contributors capable of stepping in. That's almost by default since Priller didn't play meaningful minutes, and Moore was rarely used.   Moore and Thompson just being able to play at all assures that since both players should be better versions of themselves this year and I bet they play at least 10x more than Thompson, Priller , Moore, CuJo did combined from last year. Mc Swain was not even a secondary or tertiary scoring option, so that is one more scorer and that is even if they don't get more offense out of Zach.

Fatigue management should be much easier for Archie. Last season's depth issues affected how fresh most of the kids were at the end among players with higher usage. When your guards have to play 35-40 minutes due to lack of reliable depth it showed late in missed shots and TO's were bot hdecision making and spent legs..

The other thing this team gained is IQ, which can't be discounted one bit. It's about playing smart and efficient. Some of that may negated by inexperience and the rigors of adapting to a higher level of competition. IU doesn't need elite decision making to accomplish most of it's goals. Anything average or better would beat the often poor choices we saw in a lot of critical situations .Last year was the perfect example of experience that did not translate into better leadership, and late game decision making, and  that is my primary concern. I think 25 is safely in reasonable rang, but more of the things you mentioned do have to have happen to a higher degree than last season. 

I forgot to predict .   23+ , but my guess is 27 wins.  

Edited by jblaz13
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16 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I don't. Setting a 25-win bar in his second season and before we really have an idea about the rest of the B1G is a bit extreme, imo. Plenty of reason to be optimistic, sure, but a minimum 25? How will the point be handled this season, will Green show consistency and better decision-making, will a frosh, Rob, spend time at the point, will Al develop a jumper? Does Morgan make it through the season healthy? How's Romeo's wrist, is it just precautionary? Does Smith have the jump we're anticipating? Is this a veteran team? Not really. How will the team handle the January - February road trip? 

I see 25 as do-able, but not as simply expected.

Injuries to key players obviously change the calculation.  But assuming health, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t win 25+ games IMO.  We have a stud freshman class, four upperclassmen that will be playing key roles, and two first team all-conference level players.  Archie is being paid very handsomely to figure out all other the variables you mentioned.

If we win fewer than 24 or 25 games with no major injuries, Archie will have underachieved in both of his first two seasons at IU.  If he’s one of the best young coaches in the game like we think he is, we shouldn’t be expecting that.

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15 minutes ago, FW_Hoosier said:

Injuries to key players obviously change the calculation.  But assuming health, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t win 25+ games IMO.  We have a stud freshman class, four upperclassmen that will be playing key roles, and two first team all-conference level players.  Archie is being paid very handsomely to figure out all other the variables you mentioned.

If we win fewer than 24 or 25 games with no major injuries, Archie will have underachieved in both of his first two seasons at IU.  If he’s one of the best young coaches in the game like we think he is, we shouldn’t be expecting that.

I didn't mean to indicate I don't think your view is reasonable (how about that double negative). I just think it's too early and there are too many unknowns to place a 25-win season as the low bar. Like I said, I think it's doable, I just don't see it as the bar for underachievement, at this point. And yes, I'm optimistic too. Here's to hoping it pans out like this --

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26 minutes ago, jblaz13 said:

McRoberts could easily fill a role like Fife had .Dane wasn't a prolific scorer at IU, yet he did everything out there. Zach could see a similar jump in his Sr season shooting percentages since the staff is likely asking him to look for his shot more so they can make defenses respect him. Plus, he should get lots of good looks with double teams presumably coming to Juwan and or Romeo on a frequent basis when they get hot. 

This team has 2 things last years didn't. Better top to bottom scoring and more contributors capable of stepping in. That's almost by default since Priller didn't play meaningful minutes, and Moore was rarely used.   Moore and Thompson just being able to play at all assures that since both players should be better versions of themselves this year and I bet they play at least 10x more than Thompson, Priller , Moore, CuJo did combined from last year. Mc Swain was not even a secondary or tertiary scoring option, so that is one moore scorer and that is even if they don't get more offense out of Zach.

Fatigue management should be much easier for Archie. Last season's depth issues affected how fresh most of the kids were at the end among players with higher usage. When your guards have to play 35-40 minutes due to lack of reliable depth it showed.

The other thing this team gained is IQ, which can't be discounted one bit. It's about playing smart and efficient. Some of that may negated by inexperience and the rigors of adapting to a higher level of competition. IU doesn't need elite decision making to accomplish most oif it's goals. Anything average or better would beat the often poor choices we saw in a lot of critical situations .Last year was the perfect example of experience that did not translate into better leadership, and late game decision making, and  that is my primary concern. N

I'd add that outside shooting got a real booster shot -- Fitz plus Romeo will spread the floor big time. I'm optimistic, I'm just not going to say 25 wins or bust at this point.

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