Exposing Archie's outdated offensive ideology.

[Steubenhoosier]

1 hour ago, southsidehoosier said:

The opportunities for 3 pt shots are there but no one seems confident to put them up in rhythm. It seems like so many of our 3 pt shots come in the last 5-8 seconds in a desperation attempt. I don't have stats to back that up, just from what I can see with my own eyes. 

Sometimes. What I notice even more was illustrated in yesterday's game. We were horrible shooting the 3 until right at the end. Difference, in my mind, was that the shots at the end were taken as part of the offense, guys were stepping into the shot and shooting it confidently. Earlier in the game, and I think Green is probably the biggest culprit, 3's were taken hurriedly, without feet being set. Almost a "gotta get mine" type of mentality. We also had misses by Smith (who shouldn't be shooting them) and three misses by Juwan, who was really non-existent offensively for much of this game. 

 

[IU Scott]

6 hours ago, ADegenerate said:

Is there a place in today's game for his system? Absolutely not. His approach is completely outdated and even if he made massive tweaks and improvements it still wouldn't hold water in today's game. His game plan is to attack the basket, draw fouls, play a slow tempo style, and doesn't shoot many threes based all around tough defense. You cannot win that way. It's ass backwards and It's simple math. The game has evolved and rendered that useless. His data on three's for the last 7 years nets his teams 1.07 points per shot on 3's and 1.05 points per shot on twos. He's only taking about 600 3's per year and 1200 2's. 

Beileins teams take about 1,000 3's a year and they net him 1.12 points per shot. Jay Wrights teams take about the same and earn 1.13. This opens up the floor. I ran the data on two's for Belein and he's earning about 1.10. TO's aren't a problem either. Wright consistently ranks in the 200's. The key to it is assisting the ball, ranking 3rd both times that they won. 

You cannot win in today's game no matter how tough your defense is if you're taking shots that net you 1.05-1.07 points because all teams can hit tough three's late in the clock. Archie's teams don't even take care of the ball or assist it well either. It's just awful. They can't hit FT's either. The squad / roster game planning points to more of the same so strap in folks. Fun times ahead. 

Belein and Wright both run a super slow tempo but their teams constantly assist high and score wickedly high per shot. He'll never be able to average even close to 1.10 points per shot with this system. Get with the times dude. 

Food for thought. 

It is not like we take 5 3's a game but over 20 a game and that is alright.  Look at Duke, they shoot around 30% from 3 and they are doing pretty well without using the 3.  I want to be able to score from all 3 levels of the offense from the lane, from the mid range and the 3.

[IU Scott]

2 hours ago, Maedhros said:

You don't think being the worst 3 point shooting Big Ten team in the KenPom era might be a symptom of the offense we are running?

No it is the lack of shooters because we are getting a lot of quality looks from the 3

[IU Scott]

1 hour ago, Zuckerkorn said:

First off, every coach on that sideline knows more about basketball than me (and I'd wager everyone else on this board), but it's clear the offense being employed just isn't fun to watch or effective with the players we have.  Obviously, something has to change - either adjust the offense (short term) or bring in the right players somehow (longer term).  Also, I thought the defense definitely improved last season and was looking pretty good at the very beginning of this season, but at this point I'd have to call it mediocre.

The fact that the offense looked so much better in the early games compared to now is somewhat puzzling.  I think that better teams, better coaches, and enough scouting data evolved into an easy blueprint on how to disrupt us.  That makes things much harder and the players and staff couldn't/didn't make proper adjustments.

Finally, perhaps this team is so much like the Crean teams: When they're hitting, they look fantastic but when they're not it's a train wreck.  The one difference is that for whatever reason(s), we just don't shoot the ball well with any kind of consistency and IMO the winning teams under Crean did have those type of shooters.  Beyond that, I don't know what to think.

Well every offense looks better when you hit shots

[rico]

6 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Well every offense looks better when you hit shots

And so does every woman!  LOL

[InThePaint]

If I'm correct, I believe Archie runs a version of the dribble drive system.  A large number of teams run a dribble drive oriented system. The difference is the emphasis on the shot selection within the system. We are a poor shooting team, with our 3 point shooting at 32.7% which ranks 249th in the country and our free throw shooting at 65.6% for 321st in the country. True shooting percentage takes into account effieincy from all shooting, and as bad as we are from 3 and from the the line, IU still sits at 137th in true shooting percentage which obviosly still isn't good. Our plan to attack the basket and get to the line, while adding in some 3s is an efficient way to run an offense and fits this team in my opinion. We just simply have not knocked down those 3s and free throws at an efficient clip. I don't believe taking more 3s for this team would make for a better outcome, in fact I think it would be the opposite. So that is one reason why I believe Archie has stuck to the same system. We are best suited to post the ball up and drive to the basket.

I do believe some tweaks can be made, but more so to the mentalities of the players than the actual system. I see a lot of standing and poor ball movement. When they move the ball, they tend to get a lot of open shot attempts. There was a possession Sunday where the ball went from one corner around to the perimeter to the other corner to Morgan for a wide open 3, he just missed it. I see poor driving angles, and guys going East and West rather than North and South. Part of that is help defense, which is able to sit in the gaps because there isn't a shooter that scares anyone. Sure, we have a few guys able to hit 3s, but teams would rather make those guys beat them than let Morgan or Langford attack the basket.

I would like to see more of our screeners rolling to the rim. Morgan should have the freedom to pop as well. I see a lot of guys screening and then standing, rather than making any type of cut. I would like to see Smith not making an dribble move to the basket unless he is posting up to make a move. I would like to see us in transition more from time to time. I think some of this stuff comes from everyone being on the same page at all times. Knowing when and where guys should and are going to cut.

So all in all, I don't agree that this system is not fit for the times. Scoring 1.05-1.07 points per possession does win games and it would be in the top 90 in the country. Only 24 teams are currently at or above 1.10 points per possession. The offense does need to be better, but it is not solely on the coaching. Everyone needs to be better.

[addictedtoIU]

Our offense is painful to watch. The overall flow is too slow and predictable. Kids are pretty stiff and thinking too much. Right now we're one trick pony (pounding inside or die), and other teams playing zones on us and just clog the driving lane. I hardly see any of our guys using shot fakes to get closer to the basket or to get more space or fouled. Obviously, we try very hard on defensive end, but oftentimes it seems like we fight so hard to earn a basket on one end, and give up an easy one on the other end. 

[HoosierJax]

With all these ideas and stats why dont someone call into his radio show tonight and get it from the horses mouth,or even better go to the holiday inn and present it in person.

[Hoosierhoopster]

45 minutes ago, Artesian_86 said:

I am not trying to beat a dead horse here, but here are the losing streak comparisons between Crean and Miller. I know IU is no Dayton, but Archie was doing good things while he was there. His teams were always the ones that you did not want to face in the tourney. 

I was curious about his losing streaks at Dayton.

Archie was there 6 seasons .......1st season 4 losses in a row.

                                                          2nd season 3 losses in a row.

                                                          3rd season 4 losses in a row, #25 ranking and NCAA tourney

                                                         4th season never lost 2 in a row all season, #22 ranking and NCAA tourney

                                                          5th season lost 2 in a row, #15 ranking, Conference League Champs, NCAA tourney

                                                           6th season lost 3 in a row, Conference League Champs, NCAA tourney

Crean was at IU 9 seasons.....1st season, loss 10 games in a row AND 11 games in a row in one season

                                                     2nd season, loss 11 games in a row

                                                     3rd season, loss 9 in a row

                                                     several other seasons of 3 in a row 

                                                     9th season loss 5 in a row.....

I don't know what else to say......

 

I know where you're going with this, but you flat out cannot look at Crean's first two years at IU. That team had nothing and nobody, baseball player walk-ons. This team has at least one future NBA lottery pick, and a stud senior all-big ten level player. 

[rico]

5 minutes ago, HoosierJax said:

With all these ideas and stats why dont someone call into his radio show tonight and get it from the horses mouth,or even better go to the holiday inn and present it in person.

Wouldn't do any good.  Archie is pretty much like Bobby in the fact he is set on his own ideology.  Most coaches are, even when their system doesn't fit their personnel.

[Artesian_86]

21 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I know where you're going with this, but you flat out cannot look at Crean's first two years at IU. That team had nothing and nobody, baseball player walk-ons. This team has at least one future NBA lottery pick, and a stud senior all-big ten level player. 

I knew that, and the entire fan base was aware of that....I just had to put that in there. The point that  I was making, was that long losing streaks are not something that Archie is used to or even had at Dayton. 

[ArchieBall13]

1 hour ago, ElectricBoogaloo said:

@BGleas We need your thoughts in this topic.

Bump. I'm a numbers guy, but not a basketball player. Intrigued by the topic, but curious on what your thoughts are in this thread @BGleas

[cohete15]

Archie's system being "outdated" is pure nonsense. 

3-Point FG Attempts by game since the losing streak started...
vs. OSU: IU 20 attempts (30% made) to OSU's 16 attempts (44% made)
vs. Iowa: IU 21 attempts (33% made) to Iowa's 25 (40% made). 
@ MSU: IU 20 attempts (50%) to MSU's 21 (43%). 
@ Rutgers: IU 23 attempts (26%) to Rutgers 12 (42%). 
vs. Michigan: IU 20 (15%) to Michigan 29 (35%)
@ Northwestern: IU 21 (19%) to NW's 24 (42%)
@ Purdue: IU 20 (20%) to PU 22 (32%)
vs. Nebraska: IU 14 (14%) to Nebraska 24 (33%)
@ Maryland: IU 17 (41%) to Maryland 25 (32%)
@ Michigan: IU 14 (36%) to Michigan 16 (25%)

We are taking plenty of threes. We are VERY comparable to our opposition in the game in 3-point attempts. You know what's not very comparable? Our 3-point percentage. That's not a system flaw. We get boat loads of open 3's. We take a good number of them, and we pass up on a good number of them, and we miss a very good number of them. The only flaw of the "system" that you could point your finger at, is that we need to bring in shooters. Look at some of those absolutely disgusting percentages. 26, 15, 19, 20, 14. Makes me want to vomit. That's not a system issue.
 

[5fouls]

We are only 15-20 more made shots each game from being something like 22-2.  

[rico]

4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

We are only 15-20 more made shots each game from being something like 22-2.  

23-1 is more like it.

[Sapperin LA]

To me, it's about the soft, lazy, rainbow passes we continually throw. These horrible passes do 2 things, disrupts the rhythm of the shooter, and it allows the defense that split second to recover. It certainly looks like we pass on shots because we think we can't get it off before the defense closes. This also plays into the lazy way we run back on defense, or the lazy way we back off the player we're guarding. The blocks Smith got at the end of MSU game really were lucky, he was in horrible position and made an amazing recovery. He didn't recover at all for the OSU debacle. 

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, Artesian_86 said:

I knew that, and the entire fan base was aware of that....I just had to put that in there. The point that  I was making, was that long losing streaks are not something that Archie is used to or even had at Dayton. 

I understand. I hate looking ahead to next season at this point in the season, but next season is going to be key for CAM.

[OGIUAndy]

45 minutes ago, cohete15 said:

Archie's system being "outdated" is pure nonsense. 

3-Point FG Attempts by game since the losing streak started...
vs. OSU: IU 20 attempts (30% made) to OSU's 16 attempts (44% made)
vs. Iowa: IU 21 attempts (33% made) to Iowa's 25 (40% made). 
@ MSU: IU 20 attempts (50%) to MSU's 21 (43%). 
@ Rutgers: IU 23 attempts (26%) to Rutgers 12 (42%). 
vs. Michigan: IU 20 (15%) to Michigan 29 (35%)
@ Northwestern: IU 21 (19%) to NW's 24 (42%)
@ Purdue: IU 20 (20%) to PU 22 (32%)
vs. Nebraska: IU 14 (14%) to Nebraska 24 (33%)
@ Maryland: IU 17 (41%) to Maryland 25 (32%)
@ Michigan: IU 14 (36%) to Michigan 16 (25%)

We are taking plenty of threes. We are VERY comparable to our opposition in the game in 3-point attempts. You know what's not very comparable? Our 3-point percentage. That's not a system flaw. We get boat loads of open 3's. We take a good number of them, and we pass up on a good number of them, and we miss a very good number of them. The only flaw of the "system" that you could point your finger at, is that we need to bring in shooters. Look at some of those absolutely disgusting percentages. 26, 15, 19, 20, 14. Makes me want to vomit. That's not a system issue.
 

They are turning down a lot of open looks as well. Archie needs to do better. Shooting is killing this team. He needs to bring in the country's best shooting coach or something. I don't think it's a system flaw either. I was at the Michigan game, close up. IU missed open shots, Michigan made them (as well as some tough shots). We don't have one guy who seems able to make a contested 3, let alone some one who is fairly automatic when open. That's a big hole. 

[dbmhoosier]

Just now, OGIUAndy said:

They are turning down a lot of open looks as well. Archie needs to do better. Shooting is killing this team. He needs to bring in the country's best shooting coach or something. I don't think it's a system flaw either. I was at the Michigan game, close up. IU missed open shots, Michigan made them (as well as some tough shots). We don't have one guy who seems able to make a contested 3, let alone some one who is fairly automatic when open. That's a big hole to fill. 

Archie's got this.  Don't worry.

 

[Hoosierhoopster]

47 minutes ago, cohete15 said:

Archie's system being "outdated" is pure nonsense. 

3-Point FG Attempts by game since the losing streak started...
vs. OSU: IU 20 attempts (30% made) to OSU's 16 attempts (44% made)
vs. Iowa: IU 21 attempts (33% made) to Iowa's 25 (40% made). 
@ MSU: IU 20 attempts (50%) to MSU's 21 (43%). 
@ Rutgers: IU 23 attempts (26%) to Rutgers 12 (42%). 
vs. Michigan: IU 20 (15%) to Michigan 29 (35%)
@ Northwestern: IU 21 (19%) to NW's 24 (42%)
@ Purdue: IU 20 (20%) to PU 22 (32%)
vs. Nebraska: IU 14 (14%) to Nebraska 24 (33%)
@ Maryland: IU 17 (41%) to Maryland 25 (32%)
@ Michigan: IU 14 (36%) to Michigan 16 (25%)

We are taking plenty of threes. We are VERY comparable to our opposition in the game in 3-point attempts. You know what's not very comparable? Our 3-point percentage. That's not a system flaw. We get boat loads of open 3's. We take a good number of them, and we pass up on a good number of them, and we miss a very good number of them. The only flaw of the "system" that you could point your finger at, is that we need to bring in shooters. Look at some of those absolutely disgusting percentages. 26, 15, 19, 20, 14. Makes me want to vomit. That's not a system issue.
 

Glad you broke this down.

Hunter would've helped this season. Anderson, I think, will help next season. We need shooters. If we had a couple consistent deep shooters this season, the season would look different.

[ArchieBall13]

27 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

Archie's got this.  Don't worry.

 

Funny thing is, Archie may be the best shooter on our team. Let's suit him up and he can be our dead eye shooter.

[jefftheref]

10 minutes ago, ArchieBall13 said:

Funny thing is, Archie may be the best shooter on our team. Let's suit him up and he can be our dead eye shooter.

Why is he wearing capris?

[IU Scott]

1 hour ago, OGIUAndy said:

They are turning down a lot of open looks as well. Archie needs to do better. Shooting is killing this team. He needs to bring in the country's best shooting coach or something. I don't think it's a system flaw either. I was at the Michigan game, close up. IU missed open shots, Michigan made them (as well as some tough shots). We don't have one guy who seems able to make a contested 3, let alone some one who is fairly automatic when open. That's a big hole. 

I don't think you need to bring in a great shooting coach in but you need to bring in great shooters in.  If you don't have the ability to shoot it does not matter how much you practice you will never be great shooter.  Steve Alford was one of the all time great free throw shooters yet his UCLA tea was a worse free throw shooting team this year than we are.

[OGIUAndy]

1 minute ago, IU Scott said:

I don't think you need to bring in a great shooting coach in but you need to bring in great shooters in.  If you don't have the ability to shoot it does not matter how much you practice you will never be great shooter.  Steve Alford was one of the all time great free throw shooters yet his UCLA tea was a worse free throw shooting team this year than we are.

I was kinda of kidding. I agree with you. 

[Fiveoutofsix]

1 hour ago, OGIUAndy said:

They are turning down a lot of open looks as well. Archie needs to do better. Shooting is killing this team. He needs to bring in the country's best shooting coach or something. I don't think it's a system flaw either. I was at the Michigan game, close up. IU missed open shots, Michigan made them (as well as some tough shots). We don't have one guy who seems able to make a contested 3, let alone some one who is fairly automatic when open. That's a big hole. 

Kids can improve their shots over time.  Really happens in the offseason so reps can be had with breaking bad habits.

With that said - there is a reason why shooters are recruited.  Sometimes you got it or you dont.

Sampson went after Lance, Roth, etc.  Crean had to get shooters as well.  

We need shooters that are athletic enough to play the current D.

One has to think that some of these games could of been different if IU changed to a zone, possibly.  With depth problems...