Recruiting Rankings Reality Check

[5fouls]

There always seems to be so much angst about a player's ranking coming out of high school.  Players ranked #65 in the class are looked at favorably, while players ranked below 150 are scorned.  With that as a backdrop, I find this article very interesting.  It provides the ranking coming out of high school for all 30 first round draft picks this year. 

And, then  we have talk about guys like TJD being 1 and.or 2 or done.  The numbers don't support that.

https://247sports.com/Article/2019-NBA-Draft-results-how-first-round-picks-ranked-high-school-recruits-133049560/

A quick review shows this breakdown.

1-10 (5...All from the 2018 class.  Means 5 of the top were NOT 1 and done first rounders).

11-25 (5.  From multiple years)

26-50 (5 from multiple years.  So, for TJD to be 2 and done, he has to defy the odds.  If you assume all 5 came from the last two classes, that's 5 out of 50, or only 10 percent).

51-100 (2.  Shockingly low number, and an indicator of how unreliable the rankings are once you get through the first couple of levels).

100+ (7.  Yes, there is a much broader range of numbers than the other levels, but the fact this is the largest group says quite a lot about the reliability of the rankings)

Unranked (3.  I don't know how far the ranking go down, but considering Jarrett Culver was considered ranked at #312, I'm assuming we're loking at players outside the top 350 here.  And, there are more of these than players between 51-100).

International (3)

An interesting side note is that, not only was Dylan Windler not ranked, he didn't even make the Indiana All-Star team his senior year.  That's at least 13 players in the STATE that were considered better than him coming out of high school.  Wonder how many of those guys were first round NBA picks?

 

 

[Chad B]

This is a very interesting analysis. Pays to look for diamonds in a diamond mine. Meaning, getting recruits in the top 50. TJD for four years sounds great to me. Surprised at how low the percentage is (10% using your estimate).  Seems like our top 50’s go early, but I am probably wrong if I took the time to look at the actual numbers. Thanks for posting the info. 

[FW_Hoosier]

So 15 out of the 27 American players picked in the first round were top 50 recruits, and another 4 were in the top 105?  With 70% of the American players drafted in the first round being former top 100 recruits, it sounds like the rankings are doing a pretty good job to me.

[5fouls]

7 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said:

So 15 out of the 27 American players picked in the first round were top 50 recruits, and another 4 were in the top 105?  With 70% of the American players drafted in the first round being former top 100 recruits, it sounds like the rankings are doing a pretty good job to me.

I look at it differently.  I see some reliability in the Top 50, but after that there is not much difference being #65, #265, or unranked.  Your chances of getting drafted in the first round are about the same.

[IU878176]

On 6/26/2019 at 6:04 AM, FW_Hoosier said:

So 15 out of the 27 American players picked in the first round were top 50 recruits, and another 4 were in the top 105?  With 70% of the American players drafted in the first round being former top 100 recruits, it sounds like the rankings are doing a pretty good job to me.

I agree with you. Of course they are not perfect (ie a 6th ranked player is not always better than a 105th ranked player) but they do a really good job. There are over 500,000 male high school basketball players. I’m guessing at least 150,000 of them are seniors but the services were able to identify (out of that huge pool) 70% of the first rounders as top 100 players. 

[IowaHoosierFan]

The problem i see with rankings of high school athletes is that its only good until the end of their freshman year.  After that it comes down to program, opportunity, coaching, drive and ability to grow.  You see it year after year where a kid does not do well or get the opportunity at school, transfers, and lights it up at school b.  I do think the ranking system is usually pretty good and gives coaches a good indication of what the kid can do.  There will also always be those kids who are overlooked, don't play AAU or just don't blossom until later in life and into their college careers.