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tdhoosier

Fantasy Football 2019 - shared tips?

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I thought while i'm studying up for my draft, this would be a good thread to start. Anything to get a leg up.  Who are your sleepers? Busts? Good Information sources? Good late-round gets?

 

I'll start:

Information Sources:
Fantasy Footballers Podcast

Sleepers:
Dede Westbrook - I think he's going to accel with Foles as his QB
Dante Moncrief - No Antonio Brown - and defenses are going to focus on JuJu (also high on McDonald as a late TE get)
Gurley - Not really a sleeper but some services have him ranked criminally low. Yahoo had him in the 30's.
Chris Godwin - A slot guy in Arains' system

Busts:
Other than Colts and people who have nagging injuries, I don't really have any. 

 

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I have a few theories that I like to do but all depends on where you draft (PPR 1 vs .5, Non PPR,etc....)....but 3 of my 4 leagues are PPR. Full point. I usually like to draft towards end of first round where I could go Michael Thomas/Travis Kelce right away. After the top 3 in TE production there's a big drop so if I can get Kelce or even Ertz/Kittle I can rest easy knowing I have 110 receptions coming.

I always wait for QB's and I stream defenses. One thing I really like to do in rounds 7-10 is start loading up on the handcuffs. Best options this year (as of this post)

Tony Pollard-Zeke.....could be this year's Conner

Darrell Henderson-Gurley.....I'm a Gurley believer still but will certainly get his backup.

Zekeler-Melvin Gordon....some say Jackson but I believe in Zekeler more

Mattison-Dalvin Cook....Cook has never played a full season. 

 

Couple others to mention are Latavius Murray and maybe Dexter Williams in GB....but I also really think Aaron Jones will find a new light this year. 18-22 touches per game free of Mike Mike's control. 

I agree with you on Godwin. Bucs will always be playing catch up and Arians will wing it around all day. Problem is what round. 3rd might be early but you might miss in 4th. Don't sleep on Chris Carson if you waited a long time to get 2nd RB this year. I have a few drafts next week. Really need some of these contracts to get figured out. Haha.

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2 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I have a few theories that I like to do but all depends on where you draft (PPR 1 vs .5, Non PPR,etc....)....but 3 of my 4 leagues are PPR. Full point. I usually like to draft towards end of first round where I could go Michael Thomas/Travis Kelce right away. After the top 3 in TE production there's a big drop so if I can get Kelce or even Ertz/Kittle I can rest easy knowing I have 110 receptions coming.

I always wait for QB's and I stream defenses. One thing I really like to do in rounds 7-10 is start loading up on the handcuffs. Best options this year (as of this post)

Tony Pollard-Zeke.....could be this year's Conner

Darrell Henderson-Gurley.....I'm a Gurley believer still but will certainly get his backup.

Zekeler-Melvin Gordon....some say Jackson but I believe in Zekeler more

Mattison-Dalvin Cook....Cook has never played a full season. 

 

Couple others to mention are Latavius Murray and maybe Dexter Williams in GB....but I also really think Aaron Jones will find a new light this year. 18-22 touches per game free of Mike Mike's control. 

I agree with you on Godwin. Bucs will always be playing catch up and Arians will wing it around all day. Problem is what round. 3rd might be early but you might miss in 4th. Don't sleep on Chris Carson if you waited a long time to get 2nd RB this year. I have a few drafts next week. Really need some of these contracts to get figured out. Haha.

I was close to listing Jones, but so many times I think: (fill in the blank) is the only decent running back in Green Bay, he has to get a ton of touches! Then I somehow get burned. 

Agree with you that I won't touch QB's until at least the 7th round (usually 8th or 9th). I know somebody is going to grab Mahones as a top 5 pick in my league and will be whining that he doesn't have any RB depth by week 3 - and I will laugh.

And I always stream the defenses. 

 

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1 minute ago, tdhoosier said:

I was close to listing Jones, but so many times I think: (fill in the blank) is the only decent running back in Green Bay, he has to get a ton of touches! Then I somehow get burned. 

Agree with you that I won't touch QB's until at least the 7th round (usually 8th or 9th). I know somebody is going to grab Mahones as a top 5 pick in my league and will be whining that he doesn't have any RB depth by week 3 - and I will laugh.

And I always stream the defenses. 

 

I'll take Jones if he's my 2nd option as RB and he's there in 4th. I've been burned a few times with him but for some reason I keep coming back. Only issue there is Jones/Packers play Bears in week 15 and at Minnesota in week 16 obviously during fantasy playoffs....2 defenses (especially Bears) that will cause run problems for Jones getting yards. It's not the only factor....but a factor when deciding. 

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I have done well several years drafting James White in the 5-6 round.

 I think Tevin Coleman will flourish in SF and would draft him around there as well.

While not a true sleeper, I think Tyler Boyd has another great year, especially until Green returns. Boyd does not get much publicity.

Everyone mentions the big drop off in TE after the top 3. I’ll be happy with Hunter Henry if I can’t get the top dogs.

Houston traded Foreman to the Colts and now Miller is out for the season. I think Watson is gonna have to throw a lot to keep them in games. Will Fuller coming off an injury might be a good late round pick up.

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7 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said:

I have done well several years drafting James White in the 5-6 round.

 I think Tevin Coleman will flourish in SF and would draft him around there as well.

While not a true sleeper, I think Tyler Boyd has another great year, especially until Green returns. Boyd does not get much publicity.

Everyone mentions the big drop off in TE after the top 3. I’ll be happy with Hunter Henry if I can’t get the top dogs.

Houston traded Foreman to the Colts and now Miller is out for the season. I think Watson is gonna have to throw a lot to keep them in games. Will Fuller coming off an injury might be a good late round pick up.

I picked up Duke in one league after the Miller injury Saturday night. Tough one on Coleman because of Breida. I kind of go the opposite. For the first time in years Devontae Freeman has an open backfield all to himself. Might be worth drafting him again. 

I like AJ after round 8 or so...somewhere around there. Patriots backfield. Always tough and I'm always wrong. Haha

Regarding TE's. So tough. If I can get Kelce in early 2nd I take him in a heartbeat not thinking twice. I'm actually thinking about taking him at pick 11 in first round (full point ppr). On average he's giving you almost 15 points per week better than most opponents from one position. Tough to go against. Of course I've had Kelce on my team for a couple of years....I don't think I'm going to be in a position to take him in most of my leagues. Only one is the one I mentioned.

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Such a good point on getting one of the top 3 TEs in the first two rds. There is such a difference there its crazy. I draft 8th in a 12 team league.. so my 2nd pick will be the 5th pick of the 2nd round. I expect Kelce or Kittle will be available there. 

People draft QBs wayyyy too early. Picked in an 18 team league last night and a guy took Mahomes first round.. this is league where passing TDs are worth 4pts. Smh. 

I got Cousins in the 11th rd. 

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All the talk about the TE drop off after the first 3 is the reason I drafted Gronk last year. 

So, I’m jaded. I’m going RB RB this year unless some receiver slips down too far and is too good to pass up. 

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53 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Such a good point on getting one of the top 3 TEs in the first two rds. There is such a difference there its crazy. I draft 8th in a 12 team league.. so my 2nd pick will be the 5th pick of the 2nd round. I expect Kelce or Kittle will be available there. 

People draft QBs wayyyy too early. Picked in an 18 team league last night and a guy took Mahomes first round.. this is league where passing TDs are worth 4pts. Smh. 

I got Cousins in the 11th rd. 

Every fantasy draft is different as we all know...Points,etc...but at 8th this year I'd be very happy with Conner, Kelce, Thielen...or maybe Keenan Allen.(based on projections) and when 4th comes around either best RB like a Jones at 43/44 or maybe....Godwin would be available. So many draft strategies. That's why I always laugh when people say fantasy football is pure luck. 

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32 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

All the talk about the TE drop off after the first 3 is the reason I drafted Gronk last year. 

So, I’m jaded. I’m going RB RB this year unless some receiver slips down too far and is too good to pass up. 

What position and points?

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3 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

12 teams. Picking 7. I’m all set up to do that strategy, but just can’t after last year. 

If you like RB RB...and I say this as a non Julio or Davante fan.....Conner and pray Chubb falls? Or just take Conner or best RB and if JuJu or Hill or even Gurley. Not a bad start. Good luck!

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29 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

If you like RB RB...and I say this as a non Julio or Davante fan.....Conner and pray Chubb falls? Or just take Conner or best RB and if JuJu or Hill or even Gurley. Not a bad start. Good luck!

Conner is my plan. I think I’ll even take him if Johnson falls to me. Then it’s just best RB available  after that. 

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What do you guys think of Damien Williams. Are you sold on him because of position in Reid's offense or last year production after Hunt left? I just found out I draft first in another league. Usually not a fan of drafting first....and especially not this year. League is PPR, 1 point, everything else standard. I know this sounds weird but I'm really struggling with 2 things. First...I'm not a Barkley fan at all. I'm thinking of drafting Kamara first. To me you can't go wrong with either them or McCaffery, Zeke (contract). Thoughts? 

Second thing and more importantly is the turn. Picks 24 and 25. If I go Kamara first do I go a guy like Williams at 24 and Thielen/Keenan at 25? Or go straight WR/WR at the turn to gather reception points because of PPR league status? 

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15 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

What do you guys think of Damien Williams. Are you sold on him because of position in Reid's offense or last year production after Hunt left? I just found out I draft first in another league. Usually not a fan of drafting first....and especially not this year. League is PPR, 1 point, everything else standard. I know this sounds weird but I'm really struggling with 2 things. First...I'm not a Barkley fan at all. I'm thinking of drafting Kamara first. To me you can't go wrong with either them or McCaffery, Zeke (contract). Thoughts? 

Second thing and more importantly is the turn. Picks 24 and 25. If I go Kamara first do I go a guy like Williams at 24 and Thielen/Keenan at 25? Or go straight WR/WR at the turn to gather reception points because of PPR league status? 

The podcast I listen to is completely torn on Williams. I like him though because he’s on the Chiefs. I heard a stat the other day that Chiefs and Steelers are the only 2 teams to have a player at each position in the top 12. At least on my cheat sheet his rank is low 30s - I think that is too low. 

I’d much rather have the 4th pick to see who falls, that’s for sure. It’s honestly hard to argue against any of those guys, I’d pick Saquon though - dude is a freak and it’s only his second year. 

Couldn't you Get Kittle or Ertz at the turn or is that reaching too much. I think Williams has the most upside but it’s slightly risky. Or just grab a high value guy if they fall. The nice thing about the turn is you can be adaptable.

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4 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

The podcast I listen to is completely torn on Williams. I like him though because he’s on the Chiefs. I heard a stat the other day that Chiefs and Steelers are the only 2 teams to have a player at each position in the top 12. At least on my cheat sheet his rank is low 30s - I think that is too low. 

I’d much rather have the 4th pick to see who falls, that’s for sure. It’s honestly hard to argue against any of those guys, I’d pick Saquon though - dude is a freak and it’s only his second year. 

Couldn't you Get Kittle or Ertz at the turn or is that reaching too much. I think Williams has the most upside but it’s slightly risky. Or just grab a high value guy if they fall. The nice thing about the turn is you can be adaptable.

This league gets a little antsy. My guess is once Kelce goes at around first/second turn....someone else with snag Ertz and/or Kittle before getting to me at 24/25 so I'm planning on those guys not being there. If they do fall I'll certainly grab one of those and get best available WR so going RB/TE/WR in first 3. After that start stacking best available. 

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I am picking 4th, and if Barkley, McCaffery and Kamara are all gone, I am going to skip Zeke and go for Hopkins. Just don't trust/care for Elliot.

Second pick, at 21, hope Kelce is there, but if not, then one of Chubbs, Julio, Davante Adams, Tyreek or Mike Evans

Third round, pick 28, would take Ertz or Kittle if still available and couldn't get Kelce. Fallbacks are Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones or Thielen.

Beyond that, stacking, as you suggest. At least one of the cheat sheets I subscribe to suggests taking Mahomes in 4th round if available. Not sure on this strategy, and doubt he'll be available in my league by then....45th pick.

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9 minutes ago, RoadToZion said:

If any of those guys are available at 21, then your league is clueless. Maybe Evans will be there but that is it. 

Probably wishful thinking....I use three main Fantasy resources and the average rating of both Evans and Chubbs is the 19th best player. 

The  league does have a few that aren't as experienced. At any rate, I always have a backup plan

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12 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said:

I am picking 4th, and if Barkley, McCaffery and Kamara are all gone, I am going to skip Zeke and go for Hopkins. Just don't trust/care for Elliot.

Second pick, at 21, hope Kelce is there, but if not, then one of Chubbs, Julio, Davante Adams, Tyreek or Mike Evans

Third round, pick 28, would take Ertz or Kittle if still available and couldn't get Kelce. Fallbacks are Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones or Thielen.

Beyond that, stacking, as you suggest. At least one of the cheat sheets I subscribe to suggests taking Mahomes in 4th round if available. Not sure on this strategy, and doubt he'll be available in my league by then....45th pick.

21st pick. Depending on PPR or not....but maybe Evans would fall to you but I would plan on the others not being there assuming 12 team league. If you do go Hopkins first instead of Zeke....guys that should be around at 21 would be Damian Williams, Antonio Brown, Thielen...maybe big maybe Mixon (not a fan though). Reports from Atlanta is Freeman is returning to form but he could be there in 3rd when it snakes back around. Good luck! 

When I draft early and am pretty much forced into taking best RB....I always spend next two picks on 115+ target guys regardless of WR or TE. After that best available and like I said last night start drafting handcuffs in round 6 or 7 and beyond and just hope one of them hits. Drafting Conner in round 6 last year in all my leagues essentially helped me win every league I was in. 

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Mixon is a semi-bust for me. Not that I don't like Mixon - it's that I don't like Cincinnati's offensive line. I think his ADP in the mid second round is slightly too high. 

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12 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Mixon is a semi-bust for me. Not that I don't like Mixon - it's that I don't like Cincinnati's offensive line. I think his ADP in the mid second round is slightly too high. 

I won't be taking Mixon for the same reasons you mentioned. Just not a fan of their offense. When in doubt....draft NFC South or AFC West is my motto. Josh Jacobs is going to get a ton of touches in Oakland this year. I like him too. 

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