Considering the analysis data available, people should be surprised if Tamar leaves for the NBA draft after his freshman year.
Anything is possible and he is talented, but to be so impressive that he gets feedback that he's among the top 80-100 prospects who can reasonably expect to be drafted would be him significantly outperforming expectations. If he outperforms expectations, than that would qualify as a surprise.
Of course I haven't accounted for DMB knowing a heck of a lot more than all of us.😉