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2022 WR Shawn Miller

Leathernecks

By Leathernecks
in Football Recruiting

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  • 2 weeks later...
Leathernecks

Leathernecks

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21 minutes ago, PAHoosier said:

Illinois insider but in a University of Illinois 6/10 CB on 247sports 

Not really related to the topic, but I've actually been interviewed by that guy a handful of times. I think he's pretty tuned in, and is usually right. Not quite like Weaver where just waits until someone is 100%, but he's pretty accurate. 

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olsontex

olsontex

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2 hours ago, Zlinedavid said:

Seems like we’ve been up against WV a lot this year

Kind of makes sense that West Virginia and Iowa State are starting to look like primary recruiting competition for IU going forward.  Several years ago WV was definitely in a higher tier than IU so I'd call be lumped in with them is progress. This brings up an interesting question, which I get to in a moment. 

Here's why I think we better get used to WV and ISU as primary competition, on par with our Big 10 rivals for recruiting:

1) I don't think anyone is going to confuse the states of Iowa, West Virginia, or Indiana as prodigious sources of Power 5 recruits.  These states aren't on the opposite extreme either, but clearly all three schools have to recruit heavily out of state for any shot at the CFP.  We're all East of the Mississippi so there's a natural geographical component as well.

2)  All 3 schools are viewed as being in the Top 15-30 range the past few seasons, have fairly similar records, similar national exposure and reputation.  They are considered schools with a positive trajectory for the near term, and possibly beyond.  High School kids might know a little bit about the 3 programs, but realistically they are no more than afterthoughts for out of state recruits... until the school shows interest.  I think once you get past the 15 or so schools that are perennially ranked in the Top 10, there are really only two other categories of programs.  The first are schools that (1) play in a Power 5 conf, (2) appeared in the Top 25 in recent years, (3) have gone to decent bowl games recently, (4) have a bit of buzz/cool factor/blue blood history, (5) have televised games are televised outside of their region, and (6) recruit aggressively at a national level.  The second are schools that don't.  There are a decent number of programs that have some of these 6 attributes, but there aren't many that have all 6 attributes.  IU, ISU, and WVU all makes this short list.

 W/L Record past 3 seasons:    IU:  19-14 (6-2 / 8-5 / 5-7), WVU:  19-15 (6-4 / 5-7 / 8-4), ISU:  24-15 (9-3 / 7-6 / 8-5)

3) Power 5 football recruits (Top 1000) can be classified in the following four general categories:

     a) Elite prospects with realistic NFL ambitions - outside of the occasional special circumstance these players aren't going to any of the 3 schools

     b) Good-Excellent prospects who want to stay home (or local) - not going to IU/ISU/WVU, none of the 3 states produce enough of them to sustain the 3 programs

     c) Below the talent threshold to be considered primary targets - not going to IU/ISU/WVU because they aren't even being recruited

     d) Good-Excellent prospects who are considering going out of state - I don't know the numbers but I would be surprised if it's higher than 40%

Suddenly, we're talking about a modest number of recruits who fall in category "d" and a fairly small number of schools that fit the 6 criteria mentioned above.  There are no other options for programs in less rich football hotbeds if they want to remain nationally relevant (transfers and JUCOs require recruiting too).  The intersection of "up for an adventure" recruits and the limited number of college programs with the necessary selling points to attract them is naturally going to result in seeing mostly the same suspects when kids make their final list of schools.  Especially if recruits West of the Mississippi continue to be largely ignored by schools East of the Mississippi.

It's a short list but it's got to be more than just IU, ISU, and WVU.  Schools from Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Oklahoma should be excluded (arguably MS, AL, LA, and TN should be excluded too).  A few other schools that I think might fit the criteria are Northwestern, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and 1 Non-Power 5... Cincinnati.  If my thoughts are close to reality then I think we're going to see the same 8-10 out-of-state schools competing against in-state schools over and over again.  Maybe this has been the norm for years, but since IU was not in the picture we were oblivious to it.  Do you think I'm over simplifying it?  Are there other schools you think belong on the list?

BTW - I know we just "lost out" to Illinois but I question if IU went all out for Miller once Cooper Committed.  I don't think Illinois belongs on the list.

 

 

 

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