'24-'25 College Hoops Across the Nation(NOT IU!)

[Kdug]

20 minutes ago, ledies22 said:

Kenpom plays on results, its not a future cast. I dont think Uconn was top 15 last year before they won the tournament.

Kenpom is basically a calculator of how well teams cover the spread.

I don’t have a kenpom subscription so I can’t confirm, but I’m almost certain UConn was at least top 10, if not top 5 before last year’s tourney. Torvik had them as #5 through March 4, and him and kenpom are typically similar.

Also, kenpom is way more predictive than win/loss record or even any of the polls. It can’t predict whether teams improve or not, which is what I’m hoping for. But I feel very confident in saying if we play like we have been, we will not have a good year, despite sitting at 5-1.

[ledies22]

21 minutes ago, BGleas said:

It plays on results. So the results are that we've won games but haven't looked that great doing it against the weaker part of the schedule.

Uconn was 14-0 to start the year. Even ranked #1 for a short period. Mid season in the span of 8 games... they dropped 6. What did the analytics say about Uconn on 1/26/23. When they were 16-6. was it National Champion?

[13th&Jackson]

53 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I would bet we're one of the few that has struggled against ALL of our non-P5 opponents. 

Duke ended up winning that game by 18. 

Yeah, I got a text from my brother (who's a Purdue fan) after the Harvard game. He asked, "what is wrong with IU? They are really struggling against mediocre teams."

Simple answer: Per game, they are being outscored 29-9 from three. It keeps opposing teams in the game. 

IU is 361st, of 362 teams, in 3 pt shots made/game and 359th in attempts. They are 312th in 3 pt shots allowed. It's a simple game. 

[BGleas]

2 hours ago, ledies22 said:

I cant help you if you were expecting perfection this early in the season. Everyone else outside of IU had us mediocre this year. We get pissed because how dare they disrespect us. then we get pissed because we are mediocre this year (currently).

I refuse to act like a fool and start jumping ship and call for CMW's job this early in the season. The two seasons we have under CMW has shown us he has the capability to right the ship. CMW and staff has the ability. The team has the talent. Lets wait a bit before we freak out.

My expectations are make it to the second weekend. That goal is very mush still attainable. 

This reminds me a lot of when my GF is riding in the passenger seat telling me to brake for a car 100' feet in front of me. 

Strawman argue much?

A very fringe minority is saying any of the things you're all upset about. 

It's OK to discuss the things that need to improve and admit that the team isn't playing great. It's ok. 

We're 5-1 which is great, but it's perfectly fine to acknowledge and discuss the things that we think needs to improve for the team to reach it's goals, and acknowledge and discuss that we haven't looked all that great getting to that 5-1 record. 

[ledies22]

4 minutes ago, Kdug said:

I don’t have a kenpom subscription so I can’t confirm, but I’m almost certain UConn was at least top 10, if not top 5 before last year’s tourney. Torvik had them as #5 through March 4, and him and kenpom are typically similar.

Also, kenpom is way more predictive than win/loss record or even any of the polls. It can’t predict whether teams improve or not, which is what I’m hoping for. But I feel very confident in saying if we play like we have been, we will not have a good year, despite sitting at 5-1.

What was FAU at the start of last season?

[BGleas]

4 minutes ago, ledies22 said:

Uconn was 14-0 to start the year. Even ranked #1 for a short period. Mid season in the span of 8 games... they dropped 6. What did the analytics say about Uconn on 1/26/23. When they were 16-6. was it National Champion?

Not even sure what point you're making? Do you think during that losing 6 of 8 span that their fans didn't talk about what was going wrong and how it could be fixed?

[ledies22]

2 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Strawman argue much?

A very fringe minority is saying any of the things you're all upset about. 

It's OK to discuss the things that need to improve and admit that the team isn't playing great. It's ok. 

We're 5-1 which is great, but it's perfectly fine to acknowledge and discuss the things that meet to improve for the team to reach it's goals, and acknowledge and discuss that we haven't looked all that great getting to that 5-1 record. 

correct me if i am wrong, but i do believe that you felt the need to comment on my post that other teams have struggled against non P5 schools, and in fact even lost games. where we have not. 

[BGleas]

3 minutes ago, ledies22 said:

correct me if i am wrong, but i do believe that you felt the need to comment on my post that other teams have struggled against non P5 schools, and in fact even lost games. where we have not. 

Yup, I think so. I believe I made that point that we've struggled against ever non-P5 school we've played. 

[Kdug]

1 minute ago, ledies22 said:

What was FAU at the start of last season?

How is that relevant considering we’re about a month into this season? Is your point that preseason rankings aren’t accurate? If so, I agree. But that goes for all rankings, not just analytical ones.

But we’re not in the preseason anymore. We have 6 data points (8 if you want to include the exhibitions) where we’ve mostly looked like a non-tourney team.

This is a young, new team, and there’s still time to improve. So I’m not saying we’re doomed or anything like that. We just haven’t looked very good to start the season and need to improve quickly. On a positive note, I thought the Harvard game was a step in the right direction, especially on offense.

[ledies22]

1 minute ago, BGleas said:

Yup, I think so. I believe I made that point that we've struggled against ever non-P5 school we've played. 

as an admin, i find it odd as you sit on your high horse that you'd try to call me out for a strawman argument. 

[ledies22]

Just now, Kdug said:

How is that relevant considering we’re about a month into this season? Is your point that preseason rankings aren’t accurate? If so, I agree. But that goes for all rankings, not just analytical ones.

But we’re not in the preseason anymore. We have 6 data points (8 if you want to include the exhibitions) where we’ve mostly looked like a non-tourney team.

This is a young, new team, and there’s still time to improve. So I’m not saying we’re doomed or anything like that. We just haven’t looked very good to start the season and need to improve quickly. On a positive note, I thought the Harvard game was a step in the right direction, especially on offense.

this is what i am saying... people need to stop freaking out based on the first 6 games.

No one is arguing that we have looked good. But i think to expect this team to playing great this early is silly.

[Kdug]

14 minutes ago, ledies22 said:

Uconn was 14-0 to start the year. Even ranked #1 for a short period. Mid season in the span of 8 games... they dropped 6. What did the analytics say about Uconn on 1/26/23. When they were 16-6. was it National Champion?

Torvik had them ranked #7. They only dropped 3 spots during that streak. That’s 13 spots higher than the 1/24 AP poll

[BGleas]

16 minutes ago, ledies22 said:

as an admin, i find it odd as you sit on your high horse that you'd try to call me out for a strawman argument. 

I'm conversing with you as a fellow member of the community. You threw a bunch of things at me that very, very few, if any, are actually saying. Things that I'm not saying. 

We're all discussing the team, performances, how we've looked, and how to fix it. 

Nobody, or at least a very fringe minority, is saying the season is doomed, Woodson should be fired, or all hope is lost. 

There has been great discussion about what we're seeing defensively, offensively, etc., how to fix it and why the team is struggling. 

It's OK to have those conversations. 

[ledies22]

Just now, BGleas said:

I'm conversing with you as a fellow member of the community. You threw a bunch of things at me that very, very few, if any, are actually saying. 

We're all discussing the team, performances, how we've looked, and how to fix it. 

Nobody, or at least a very fringe minority, is saying the season is doomed, Woodson should be fired, or all hope is lost. 

There has been great discussion about what we're seeing defensively, offensively, etc., how to fix it and why the team is struggling. 

It's OK to have those conversations. 

no where did i say i was against having those conversations. yes, a "fringe minority" have called for CMW's job. Even more so in other places. There are also connotations of that, that have been mentioned. 

[BGleas]

Speaking here as a community member, not necessarily a mod. 

@ledies22 apologies if you feel like I'm attacking you or anything. Certainly not my intent. 

As frustrated as you may be with perceived negativity on the board or among the fanbase, I'm just as frustrated with perceived stifling of what I feel like is productive conversation around why the team is struggling, how to fix it, etc.  

My apologies!!

[IUFLA]

The lack of trust in Mike Woodson is astounding to me...

How many Big 10 coaches last year could have lost their point guard and (at the time) second best player along with a 6th year senior forward, got his team up off the mat after a 1-3 start, whipped Wisconsin, then went into Champaign and stomped a pretty fair Illini squad, and guided his team to a second place finish in the Big 10?

[ledies22]

3 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Speaking here as a community member, not necessarily a mod. 

@ledies22 apologies if you feel like I'm attacking you or anything. Certainly not my intent. 

As frustrated as you may be with perceived negativity on the board or among the fanbase, I'm just as frustrated with perceived stifling of what I feel like is productive conversation around why the team is struggling, how to fix it, etc.  

My apologies!!

This is even sillier. no need to apologize to me. we had an argument, albeit heated for a second. no worries here.

[southsidehoosier]

2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

The lack of trust in Mike Woodson is astounding to me...

How many Big 10 coaches last year could have lost their point guard and (at the time) second best player along with a 6th year senior forward, got his team up off the mat after a 1-3 start, whipped Wisconsin, then went into Champaign and stomped a pretty fair Illini squad, and guided his team to a second place finish in the Big 10?

And swept PUke

Edited November 28, 2023 by southsidehoosier

[13th&Jackson]

2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

The lack of trust in Mike Woodson is astounding to me...

How many Big 10 coaches last year could have lost their point guard and (at the time) second best player along with a 6th year senior forward, got his team up off the mat after a 1-3 start, whipped Wisconsin, then went into Champaign and stomped a pretty fair Illini squad, and guided his team to a second place finish in the Big 10?

I don't lack trust in Woodson. I have no doubt the team will improve over the course of the season, but I think there are issues with the scheme and the personnel that can only be corrected to a point this year. 

CMW is a significant upgrade over Archie and has won a number of games that Archie would have lost. He's also shown a talent for developing players. He's also a much better ambassador for the program. But he's constructed a team that gives up too many second chance opportunities and regularly gets outscored from three, even to teams with far less talent. That's been a consistent pattern and it's trending in the wrong direction. 

Following is the ranking of 3 pt shots made and offensive rebounds per game under CMW:

21-22:  3pts/gm IU 311th, 5.7   Opp 235th, 7.6   OR/gm IU 9.1   Opp 9.1

22-23: 3pts/gm IU 334th, 5.6, Opp 224th, 7.5    OR/gm IU 9.2   Opp 10.8

23-24  3pts/gm IU 361st, 3.2, Opp 344th 9.7   OR/gm IU 7.0 Opp 11.7

Giving up an OR for a kickout three to an open shooter is one of the most deflating plays in the game. 

The team lacks speed and athleticism at the guard position and there are no true shooters among the guards. It was understandable with TJD to play through him, but I thought it was a failure (and a disservice) to not add shooters around him (Kopp wasn't nearly enough). With the addition of Ware, and Malik getting more time, IU has become even more unbalanced, which I didn't think possible. It's still early and hopefully Mgbako can provide the perimeter shooting from the 3 position (last game was a good omen). 

I thought with CMW, we would see a dramatically different style, but that really hasn't happened. What has significantly improved is the 2-point shooting percentage and finishing around the basket.  I understood the personnel constraints the first season, but have been surprised that last season and this season we are still an interior dominant, half-court team that lacks shooters and struggles to defend the three. 

CMW did a great job exploiting Purdue's weaknesses last year. He rode JHS's mid-range game that PU couldn't defend and basically let TJD play Edey straight up. But PU's freshman guards couldn't hit wide open threes, which was ultimately their achilles heel last year. Purdue was a good matchup for IU last year, but I'm not counting on Loyer missing open looks this year. 

By contrast Penn St. was an absolute nightmare matchup for the Hoosiers. 

[Purdue7]

1 hour ago, 13th&Jackson said:

I don't lack trust in Woodson. I have no doubt the team will improve over the course of the season, but I think there are issues with the scheme and the personnel that can only be corrected to a point this year. 

CMW is a significant upgrade over Archie and has won a number of games that Archie would have lost. He's also shown a talent for developing players. He's also a much better ambassador for the program. But he's constructed a team that gives up too many second chance opportunities and regularly gets outscored from three, even to teams with far less talent. That's been a consistent pattern and it's trending in the wrong direction. 

Following is the ranking of 3 pt shots made and offensive rebounds per game under CMW:

21-22:  3pts/gm IU 311th, 5.7   Opp 235th, 7.6   OR/gm IU 9.1   Opp 9.1

22-23: 3pts/gm IU 334th, 5.6, Opp 224th, 7.5    OR/gm IU 9.2   Opp 10.8

23-24  3pts/gm IU 361st, 3.2, Opp 344th 9.7   OR/gm IU 7.0 Opp 11.7

Giving up an OR for a kickout three to an open shooter is one of the most deflating plays in the game. 

The team lacks speed and athleticism at the guard position and there are no true shooters among the guards. It was understandable with TJD to play through him, but I thought it was a failure (and a disservice) to not add shooters around him (Kopp wasn't nearly enough). With the addition of Ware, and Malik getting more time, IU has become even more unbalanced, which I didn't think possible. It's still early and hopefully Mgbako can provide the perimeter shooting from the 3 position (last game was a good omen). 

I thought with CMW, we would see a dramatically different style, but that really hasn't happened. What has significantly improved is the 2-point shooting percentage and finishing around the basket.  I understood the personnel constraints the first season, but have been surprised that last season and this season we are still an interior dominant, half-court team that lacks shooters and struggles to defend the three. 

CMW did a great job exploiting Purdue's weaknesses last year. He rode JHS's mid-range game that PU couldn't defend and basically let TJD play Edey straight up. But PU's freshman guards couldn't hit wide open threes, which was ultimately their achilles heel last year. Purdue was a good matchup for IU last year, but I'm not counting on Loyer missing open looks this year. 

By contrast Penn St. was an absolute nightmare matchup for the Hoosiers. 

Defensive over helping or even rotations really kill your rebounding 

Every random game I watch you see good players….surprised you guys didn’t get at least one portal guard 

coaching multiple portal & 5 star players has to be like the NBA?  Takes time to get everyone on the same page 

 

plus you lost 500 starts from last year?

[jv1972iu]

Reed Sheppard is a 2023 updated clone of Steve Alford.  JMHO.  Pure shooter and consummate team player.

Edited November 29, 2023 by jv1972iu

[Drroogh]

Kansas struggled tonight what do the analytics say about that?

[5fouls]

2 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Kansas struggled tonight what do the analytics say about that?

Kooper Jacobi, from my kids' high school, just missed a double-double for Eastern Illinois with 14 points and 9 boards.  Kooper, along with TKR, helped lead Silver Creek to 2 state titles, and likely would have been 3 if not for Covid.   

[Kdug]

21 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Kansas struggled tonight what do the analytics say about that?

Didn’t see the game, but that EIU team is similar to Army in how bad they are, so looks like it was a rough game for them. But Kansas also has two impressive wins over Tennessee and Kentucky already.

[BGleas]

22 minutes ago, Kdug said:

Didn’t see the game, but that EIU team is similar to Army in how bad they are, so looks like it was a rough game for them. But Kansas also has two impressive wins over Tennessee and Kentucky already.

They also have wins by 43 and 38 to go along with the UK and Tennessee wins. But hey, none of that counts i guess?

Kansas is also ranked 5th in KenPom to our 74th, if we want to use some data.