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Is This 1936 All Over Again?


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4 hours ago, Drroogh said:

I’m actually amazed, I thought this would just be a limited action in the two breakaway territories! But then again the idiot a$$hole president of the Ukraine has been poking the bear hard for quite awhile! Almost acting like he was more powerful than Putin!

It’s a new world???

Interesting comment. I'm not intimately familiar with the history of the region, but I do understand there were many Russian citizens in the two "breakaways" (Donetsk and Luhansk?)...

A picture just for understanding...

image.png.9fabbc02756fbf0c1fd49ba9ee7ce09d.png

So what would bring peace? Ukraine ceding those territories back to Russia? 

According to the news reports I've seen his troops are well beyond those territories...

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Russia wants Ukraine to be an unarmed, neutral (and of course non NATO) country. Basically their puppet. They will begin negotiating on this soon.

All older Ukrainians are Russian. Problem is they have now seen and experienced the freedom of the West and don't want to go back to the past.

Just saw this news- "the Kremlin announced that Putin has agreed to organize negotiations after Zelensky said he was ready to discuss Ukraine's "neutral status" (i.e., not joining NATO)."

The immediate conflict will die down rather quickly. The impact will be very far reaching and long lasting.

Edited by Reacher
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1 hour ago, HoosierFaithful said:

This is a chess game that each side knew the first 5-6 moves of for months (or years).  The sanctions will hurt, but Putin clearly factored that into his calculus and decided to go forth anyway.

Playing chess against a Russian is not a good thing.

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2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

Interesting comment. I'm not intimately familiar with the history of the region, but I do understand there were many Russian citizens in the two "breakaways" (Donetsk and Luhansk?)...

A picture just for understanding...

image.png.9fabbc02756fbf0c1fd49ba9ee7ce09d.png

So what would bring peace? Ukraine ceding those territories back to Russia? 

According to the news reports I've seen his troops are well beyond those territories...

I have no idea what Putin’s end game is? But they are way beyond the two breakaway regions. I can say this in retrospect, my friend vacationed in Crimea last summer and they were having military games then. With one of the attack fronts coming out of Crimea, it seems this has been in the works at least since then?

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22 hours ago, Lostin76 said:

The Russians I know do not support this. They are just as horrified as the rest of us - maybe more.

Interesting...I worked with a lady that just turned 62 and retired recently. She was from Eastern Ukraine (later moved to Russia) and she loved Putin and how he has turned around the economy there after years of horrible leadership. She was happy because her family back home hated the Ukrainian govt and the corruption. Her family in Ukraine even spoke Russian and while she obviously doesn't want her family back home getting hurt she hopes the Russians quickly come in and clean house and puts in their own govt head and ends the corruption. I know no one is for blood shed and violence and this is awful but it is a very very complex situation for those that came from there. Might be easier for her to hold her views having lived in NY and now Florida for past 30 years and not being directly involved in it but her sister still lives there while most of the rest of her family left Ukraine for Russia shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union but it is very interesting the dynamics and there are plenty of people in Ukraine (especially Eastern) that identify as Russian and hate the Ukrainian govt. I'm certain no one would want people dying and suffering but can see how they have a complicated relationship between the two countries. Also totally understand while a majority of Russians wouldn't want the sanctions and economic fall out from doing this as well. I think it just underlines how little most of us understand greater geopolitical affairs over here in the US. Probably venture to say 90% of Americans couldn't point out Ukraine on a globe much less understand the dynamics involved in what is actually going on. Doesn't mean what Putin is doing is right, or warranted, and we shouldn't stop him etc but it definitely is not black and white when it comes to how people over there see it. Many Ukrainians see it as Putin liberating them from a corrupt govt.

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4 hours ago, Reacher said:

Russia wants Ukraine to be an unarmed, neutral (and of course non NATO) country. Basically their puppet. They will begin negotiating on this soon.

All older Ukrainians are Russian. Problem is they have now seen and experienced the freedom of the West and don't want to go back to the past.

Just saw this news- "the Kremlin announced that Putin has agreed to organize negotiations after Zelensky said he was ready to discuss Ukraine's "neutral status" (i.e., not joining NATO)."

The immediate conflict will die down rather quickly. The impact will be very far reaching and long lasting.

Personally I think this is exactly what Putin wants. Control of Ukraine through installed proxy govt and to keep NATO away from his door step. Imagine if China entered into an agreement with Mexico and decided to arm Mexico....would we just sit idle by? The further Ukraine drifts from Russian influence the more dangerous to Russian motives they become. They don't necessarily need to simply overtake and absorb it...they just want to make sure Russia's interest are served first. I imagine they will overthrow the govt and place new leadership in its place and will then recede back. Power and influence...and tons of money....along with keeping NATO off Russia's doorstep.

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1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Personally I think this is exactly what Putin wants. Control of Ukraine through installed proxy govt and to keep NATO away from his door step. Imagine if China entered into an agreement with Mexico and decided to arm Mexico....would we just sit idle by? The further Ukraine drifts from Russian influence the more dangerous to Russian motives they become. They don't necessarily need to simply overtake and absorb it...they just want to make sure Russia's interest are served first. I imagine they will overthrow the govt and place new leadership in its place and will then recede back. Power and influence...and tons of money....along with keeping NATO off Russia's doorstep.

I agree 100%. If China was sitting up shop on our doorstep,  it would be war.  China, Russia, the US will never allow the other to be that close. Ukraine should have never been considered for NATO

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1 hour ago, HoosierFaithful said:

Interesting read by a well-regarded Professor at King's College in the UK that was subsequently echoed by a former MI-6 head on Twitter

https://samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless-gamble?r=15i4j0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=url

This quote, "They might even, as the Russian Ambassador to the UN suggested, greet the incoming Russian forces as liberators."  To go along with what @dgambill said are what Putin must have thought would happen.  But in the comments, "I lived in Donetsk in 2009-2010, as part of my degree. I taught English and my students were very pro-Russia, although also adamant they were Ukrainians and proud to be bilingual. Their parents sometimes had a stronger Russian identity but most were proud to say they were distinctively Ukrainian. In 2014 Russia's actions decisively turned them all into anti-Putin Ukrainians, painful for many due to family links to Russia."

Putin may have misread the field.  

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4 hours ago, dgambill said:

Interesting...I worked with a lady that just turned 62 and retired recently. She was from Eastern Ukraine (later moved to Russia) and she loved Putin and how he has turned around the economy there after years of horrible leadership. She was happy because her family back home hated the Ukrainian govt and the corruption. Her family in Ukraine even spoke Russian and while she obviously doesn't want her family back home getting hurt she hopes the Russians quickly come in and clean house and puts in their own govt head and ends the corruption. I know no one is for blood shed and violence and this is awful but it is a very very complex situation for those that came from there. Might be easier for her to hold her views having lived in NY and now Florida for past 30 years and not being directly involved in it but her sister still lives there while most of the rest of her family left Ukraine for Russia shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union but it is very interesting the dynamics and there are plenty of people in Ukraine (especially Eastern) that identify as Russian and hate the Ukrainian govt. I'm certain no one would want people dying and suffering but can see how they have a complicated relationship between the two countries. Also totally understand while a majority of Russians wouldn't want the sanctions and economic fall out from doing this as well. I think it just underlines how little most of us understand greater geopolitical affairs over here in the US. Probably venture to say 90% of Americans couldn't point out Ukraine on a globe much less understand the dynamics involved in what is actually going on. Doesn't mean what Putin is doing is right, or warranted, and we shouldn't stop him etc but it definitely is not black and white when it comes to how people over there see it. Many Ukrainians see it as Putin liberating them from a corrupt govt.

I’m not surprised there are older people like that, but I mostly know younger Russians. If I asked randoms on the street here in Brighton Beach, I’m sure a lot of them would be pro-Russia/Putin. They tend to be older and more conservative.

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12 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I’m not surprised there are older people like that, but I mostly know younger Russians. If I asked randoms on the street here in Brighton Beach, I’m sure a lot of them would be pro-Russia/Putin. They tend to be older and more conservative.

Brighton Beach. Wow. Spent a day there in a prior life when I was in NYC often. I knew there was a reason I could never read War and Peace. Couldn't keep the names straight. Thanks for sharing your photo. I don't know all the ins/outs of Nato but this one feels more and more like Putin isn't going to let this one go on words alone. 

Scary times. Be safe and cordial all!

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20 hours ago, dgambill said:

Many Ukrainians see it as Putin liberating them from a corrupt govt.

Wasn't the current government elected through democratic means? 

I understand there has been corruption in Ukraine for some time, but saying you'd rather have a Russian appointed despot under Putin's thumb calling the shots rather than a duly elected government is lunacy to me...

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14 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Wasn't the current government elected through democratic means? 

I understand there has been corruption in Ukraine for some time, but saying you'd rather have a Russian appointed despot under Putin's thumb calling the shots rather than a duly elected government is lunacy to me...

In a short answer, elected is questionable!

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1 minute ago, Drroogh said:

In a short answer, elected is questionable!

I understand, but on the other side of that is no question at all...

It's a leader selected by one (unhinged) man who's human rights record isn't exactly sparkling...

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2 hours ago, Drroogh said:

In a short answer, elected is questionable!

What specifically makes you think it was questionable? Zelenskiy won a runoff election vs an incumbent who was hampered by his own corruption scandal - in a country where just 5 years earlier there was an uprising to get rid of the previous government - because it was corrupt.  It's not hard to fathom why Zelenskiy won the runoff the way he did.

Regardless, it's pretty clear the people of Ukraine are rallying around Zelenskiy, and he's proven to be possibly the best war time president they could have asked for.

 

Edit: I hope my post didn't come off as combative; I'm genuinely interested - I just can't find any info online hinting at that claim, and I know many people speak of the Ukraine democracy as "imperfect."

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