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20-21 Bracketology thread


Indykev
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53 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I think as long as we can stay above .500, with our schedule, we'll be in.  And, actually, with the while tournament being played in the state, I think that gives us an edge if we are on the bubble.   

Another thing to remember is there is an extra at large bid this years since the Ivy League is not playing this year.

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I will be happy, not satisfied, but happy if we make the tourney.  If we finish above .500 overall I will be a little surprised.  That's saying we'll win 6 more conference games.  Isn't there a site that has predictors for each game?  I don't know how to find that, but I'm thinking the 6 most likely:  at NW, at Purdue, vs Rutgers, at MSU, vs. MSU, and at Rutgers?  Man, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we win ALL of those!  Maybe say we're more likely to beat Illinois or MN at home than 2 of those?

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4 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

I will be happy, not satisfied, but happy if we make the tourney.  If we finish above .500 overall I will be a little surprised.  That's saying we'll win 6 more conference games.  Isn't there a site that has predictors for each game?  I don't know how to find that, but I'm thinking the 6 most likely:  at NW, at Purdue, vs Rutgers, at MSU, vs. MSU, and at Rutgers?  Man, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we win ALL of those!  Maybe say we're more likely to beat Illinois or MN at home than 2 of those?

Kenpom has us at 13-13 (8-11) projected cumulatively. 12-14 if you look at it game by game. He leaves out the MSU game that was postponed so assumes it is cancelled instead. Wins are home games vs. Rutger, MN, MSU and @ NW

Edited by cybergates
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4 minutes ago, cybergates said:

Kenpom has us at 13-13 (8-11) projected cumulatively. 12-14 if you look at it game by game. He leaves out the MSU game that was postponed so assumes it is cancelled instead. Wins are home games vs. Rutger, MN, MSU and @ NW

I could see that.  I don't even think I'd be too disappointed with that.  I'm worried we won't get that many.  

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It's going to require 16 wins.  I just don't see a path where 15 gets us in.  We're either 15-13 with a loss in the first round of the BTT, or 15-14 with a 1-1 finish in the BTT.  One is an early flameout in the conference tournament in a conference where there are a lot of teams jostling for a limited number of spots.  The other is finishing just one game above .500, which is a tough sell for an at large regardless of the circumstances.

So, look at the remaining schedule and find 8 more wins.  If you can't, we'll have to wait until next year.  

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On 1/20/2021 at 11:30 AM, 5fouls said:

It's going to require 16 wins.  I just don't see a path where 15 gets us in.  We're either 15-13 with a loss in the first round of the BTT, or 15-14 with a 1-1 finish in the BTT.  One is an early flameout in the conference tournament in a conference where there are a lot of teams jostling for a limited number of spots.  The other is finishing just one game above .500, which is a tough sell for an at large regardless of the circumstances.

So, look at the remaining schedule and find 8 more wins.  If you can't, we'll have to wait until next year.  

This is about how I see it as well — now we only need 7 more wins to get to 16.  16-13 (10-10 conference record with one win in the BTT) gets us in.  If the committee decides to show us a little favoritism because the tournament is in Indiana, I could maybe see 15-14 (9-11 conference record with one win in the BTT) getting us in as well, but that will be dicey.  16 looks like the magic number.

7 more wins should be easily doable, but we’ll see if they can put it together.  Pretty sad state of affairs that this is the position we’re in in Year 4.

Edited by FW_Hoosier
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I'll be pretty surprised if we don't make it. Areas that we show out strongly:

Computer metrics

Road record

Non-conference SOS

Quality of wins and losses

 

Obviously the last stretch of the season is going to be an impact, but if that continues to play out like the first two months of the season has we should be in good shape. 

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