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Beat Rutgers - Back in Tourney?


Bustout
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3 minutes ago, Bustout said:

Yes. I want to see this team in tourney.   Call me a psycho 

yeah.  it matters to me too.  regardless of what happens from here, i would like to be in the tourney!  personally i think a win at Rutgers would put us in a position where we may only have to win 1 of the other 3.  personally i don't think we'll win at Rutgers and am a little skeptical we'll win any of the other 3!

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11 minutes ago, BDB said:

Does it really matter?

I think is absolutely matters. Get into the dance and the narrative changes around the program. Miss the dance and it’s going to be toxic. Fans won’t be showing up next season, lost revenue, recruiting likely drops further because a coach is on the hot seat for a season. 

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In my eyes, 15 wins and they're in.

14 wins and they have a chance.

This site I look at a lot bases their stuff off of thousands of computer simulations that they run every day.

They currently give IU a 78.6% chance to make the tournament, and have them as the last 10 seed.

It also shows a percentage chance of making it with certain win totals, and for IU they give a 98.7% chance to make it with 15 wins, an 83.1% chance to make it with 14 wins, and then just an 8.1% chance to make it with 13 wins.

There's a lot of interesting stuff on here, I recommend checking it out:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/indiana-hoosiers/bracketology

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1 minute ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Screw it, I still have a little faith, we win the next 4 games and 2 games in the BTT

Sounds like a lot of faith.. Especially when I think I saw you post that we were probably gonna go 0-4 to finish the regular season yesterday. Lol.

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1 minute ago, Parakeet Jones said:

Pretty’s sure 2 more puts us at 14-12. 9-10 in B1G. 

I was saying we go 1-3 down the stretch to finish the regular season 13-13 (8-11 in conference), then we go 1-1 in the BTT to finish 14-14.

If you meant going 2-2 down the stretch to finish the regular season 14-12 (9-10 in conference), then going 0-1 in the BTT to finish 14-13, I think that would probably put us in a slightly better position.

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14-14 is not good enough.  The committee understands it's a different year, but they aren't going to go that far.  I mean, there is exactly one extra bid out there than there has been in the past (since Ivy League is not playing).  How many years in the past would the committee have taken a .500 team if they would have had 1 more bid?  The answer would be 'never'.

 

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Just now, FW_Hoosier said:

I was saying we go 1-3 down the stretch to finish the regular season 13-13 (8-11 in conference), then we go 1-1 in the BTT to finish 14-14.

If you meant going 2-2 down the stretch to finish the regular season 14-12 (9-10 in conference), then going 0-1 in the BTT to finish 14-13, I think that would probably put us in a slightly better position.

Yes, I was talking about down the stretch. 

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23 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

14-14 is not good enough.  The committee understands it's a different year, but they aren't going to go that far.  I mean, there is exactly one extra bid out there than there has been in the past (since Ivy League is not playing).  How many years in the past would the committee have taken a .500 team if they would have had 1 more bid?  The answer would be 'never'.

 

Do you think IU is a top 68 team?

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9 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

With conference champions getting into the tourney, the Top 68 never make up the tourney field.  No .500 team is deserving to be in the tourney, regardless of their strength of schedule.  

I understand top 68 don’t make it, but .500 with this years B1G being by far and away the best conference - you don’t think that’s deserving?

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7 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

No.  I don't.

Interesting.  
 

I assume the argument would be if they were in another conference, say the SEC, they would be 16-12 at worst ... would that get them in?

 

For example - look at IU vs Florida.  Florida seems to be a lock.    But do they have a better resume than IU (assuming IU at 14-14)?

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1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

14-14 is not good enough.  The committee understands it's a different year, but they aren't going to go that far.  I mean, there is exactly one extra bid out there than there has been in the past (since Ivy League is not playing).  How many years in the past would the committee have taken a .500 team if they would have had 1 more bid?  The answer would be 'never'.

 

This year is different due to the compressed OOC schedule. How many years in the past has a team played 26 of their 28 games against major conference opponents? Probably also never. In a normal year that hypothetical team would be 19-14 with a handful of wins over random directional schools.

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27 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

@Bustout

Florida has a NET rating of 30.  We have a NET rating of 52.  The committee's main selection tool would say Florida deserves it more.  Doesn't matter what I think we that significant of a gap.  

I thought some people said NET is a scam for some reason.   Is that committees most used advanced metric?

 

Florida has two solid wins. IUs two wins are arguably better (#4 and #8 vs #6 and #11).     
 

KenPom has them one ranking apart.   

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