Zeisloft and Roth Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 The Big Ten has gotten little respect this year from the national media and ESPN (despite televising the Big 10/ACC Challenge) seems to have missed which conference won the event. I am sitting here looking at Ken Pom rankings and there is no way you can dispute the Big Ten being the best conference. The Big Ten has six teams in the top 20. The ACC has 4 and no other conference has more than 2. I'll give you the fact the Big 10 may be a little lighter than usual at the bottom of the conference this year - but the Big Ten schedule is going to be a gauntlet. Ken Pom Top 20 includes: 2. Ohio State 4. Michigan State (don't ask me to explain this) 5. Purdue 7. Maryland 13. Michigan 20. Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Just now, Zeisloft and Roth said: The Big Ten has gotten little respect this year from the national media and ESPN (despite televising the Big 10/ACC Challenge) seems to have missed which conference won the event. I am sitting here looking at Ken Pom rankings and there is no way you can dispute the Big Ten being the best conference. The Big Ten has six teams in the top 20. The ACC has 4 and no other conference has more than 2. I'll give you the fact the Big 10 may be a little lighter than usual at the bottom of the conference this year - but the Big Ten schedule is going to be a gauntlet. Ken Pom Top 20 includes: 2. Ohio State 4. Michigan State (don't ask me to explain this) 5. Purdue 7. Maryland 13. Michigan 20. Indiana Prior to January 1, KenPom's calculations use data extrapolated from last season, due to the small amount of games that have been played this season. This is why Virginia and Michigan State are still so highly ranked when their performance has not reflected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeisloft and Roth Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said: Prior to January 1, KenPom's calculations use data extrapolated from last season, due to the small amount of games that have been played this season. This is why Virginia and Michigan State are still so highly ranked when their performance has not reflected it. Correct. Ken Pom actually got in a back and forth with Jeff Goodman on twitter last night about this. Pomeroy's point is that his rankings - even at this point in the season are the best predictor of season long success. Regardless, definitely don't want to come here to have a math discussion. My point is the Big Ten is REALLY good this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Zeisloft and Roth said: Correct. Ken Pom actually got in a back and forth with Jeff Goodman on twitter last night about this. Pomeroy's point is that his rankings - even at this point in the season are the best predictor of season long success. Regardless, definitely don't want to come here to have a math discussion. My point is the Big Ten is REALLY good this year. I've been a KP subscriber for 5+ years. That said, no statistical model is ever perfect, and that is one flaw in Pomeroy's. His is better than most, but it does leave the door open for situations like MSU/UVA this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said: Prior to January 1, KenPom's calculations use data extrapolated from last season, due to the small amount of games that have been played this season. This is why Virginia and Michigan State are still so highly ranked when their performance has not reflected it. Look at it this way. If KenPom's ratings are heavily influenced by last year, yet IU has moved into the top 20, just think how high we would be if last year was left out. Last year's KenPom drags us down just as much as it pulls MSU and Virginia up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeisloft and Roth Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Look at it this way. If KenPom's ratings are heavily influenced by last year, yet IU has moved into the top 20, just think how high we would be if last year was left out. Last year's KenPom drags us down just as much as it pulls MSU and Virginia up. This is a great point and please note I did not start this thread to debate the merits of Ken Pom - I simply wanted to discuss the Big Ten being the best conference and the challenges it is going to present this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zlinedavid Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, 5fouls said: Look at it this way. If KenPom's ratings are heavily influenced by last year, yet IU has moved into the top 20, just think how high we would be if last year was left out. Last year's KenPom drags us down just as much as it pulls MSU and Virginia up. Oh trust me.....I've thought about that. It's just the other side of the coin from the others though. But, there's no way around it. To have any basis of reliability, models can't use a small sample size. And the only thing that's comparable is last year's data. Trust me, I'm not knocking it. I think KP puts out a great product, which is why I've subscribed for the past 5 years. But no model is immune to criticism, and no model will ever be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drroogh Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Zlinedavid said: Oh trust me.....I've thought about that. It's just the other side of the coin from the others though. But, there's no way around it. To have any basis of reliability, models can't use a small sample size. And the only thing that's comparable is last year's data. Trust me, I'm not knocking it. I think KP puts out a great product, which is why I've subscribed for the past 5 years. But no model is immune to criticism, and no model will ever be perfect. Not a statistical expert by any means, however being around SPC analysis in manufacturing for over 30 years I've had many observations. Statistics can and ARE influenced by how much knowledge the statistical model builder has of the actual process! (usually very limited, which means the value of the statistical model is very limited) I think Kenpom does a great job with the limited data he has available to work with! Data that is probably not in the model though are things like injuries, match ups (players and coaches), mood of the locker room and the list of intangibles goes on and on! This is why they play the game! Don't EVEN get me started about the evils of mega data all being thrown into some magical moronic algorithm! (when a butterfly in Thailand takes flight it affects the weather in Iceland S....t ????) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierhoopster Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 I think a number of B1G teams are underrated nationally, including IU, and some are overrated, including MSU. The reality is we have had one good game so far - the FSU game. It’s too early to start talk about good we are or most of the other teams who had weak schedules — now OSU on the other hand should be considered on the higher end of the rankings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgambill Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said: I think a number of B1G teams are underrated nationally, including IU, and some are overrated, including MSU. The reality is we have had one good game so far - the FSU game. It’s too early to start talk about good we are or most of the other teams who had weak schedules — now OSU on the other hand should be considered on the higher end of the rankings Maryland and Ohio St have really loaded rosters. They should hang around the top 10 all year. Michigan and MSU will be in that 15-20 range and then IU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa will hang around the 25-30. It’s a good conference and has a couple natl champion contenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drroogh Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 I'm thinking, this is the first year in a long time where I felt the BIG could produce a National Champion! And I would not put it completely out of line that IU was that team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierDom Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, dgambill said: Maryland and Ohio St have really loaded rosters. They should hang around the top 10 all year. Michigan and MSU will be in that 15-20 range and then IU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa will hang around the 25-30. It’s a good conference and has a couple natl champion contenders. I haven't actually seen them play, but I think it would be a really tough argument to suggest that Wisconsin belongs in that group - they have lost to some thoroughly mediocre teams. The Big Ten certainly looks a whole lot better than it did two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feathery Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Drroogh said: I'm thinking, this is the first year in a long time where I felt the BIG could produce a National Champion! And I would not put it completely out of line that IU was that team! I think OSU is the real deal this year, and could win the title. MSU is a paper tiger. Maryland has their version of Tom Crean and will flame out. I need to see more from IU still the next 2 weeks will tell us a lot. There is a stretch of games at the end of January and early February that IU could easily lose 3-4 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 e 7 hours ago, Zeisloft and Roth said: 4. Michigan State Can you explain that please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CincyHoosier Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 The Big 10 is shaping up to be like the ACC most years. The ACC has largely been a top heavy league with 3-4 elite teams (Duke, UNC, Virginia, sometimes others), a few quality mid level tourney teams, and a bunch of garbage after that. The Big 10 has Ohio St, Maryland, Michigan, and MSU which all appear to be final 4 quality IMO (yes, even MSU - Izzo will figure it out). Then there are teams like IU, Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Penn St that are tournament quality. IU and Purdue could move into that next level depending on how the respective teams shape up as we head into conference play. Now this year we have some pretty bad bottom tier teams imo, like Rutgers, Minnesota, NW, and Nebraska. These teams may struggle to beat anyone but each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 16 hours ago, Feathery said: Maryland has their version of Tom Crean and will flame out. The Dancing Turgeonites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dgambill Posted December 6, 2019 Report Share Posted December 6, 2019 16 hours ago, HoosierDom said: I haven't actually seen them play, but I think it would be a really tough argument to suggest that Wisconsin belongs in that group - they have lost to some thoroughly mediocre teams. The Big Ten certainly looks a whole lot better than it did two weeks ago. Agreed but I think they like Michigan State will improve after December...they always get stronger. We will see...certainly another team like Illinois or Minnesota could improve to that level as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierDom Posted December 8, 2019 Report Share Posted December 8, 2019 On 12/6/2019 at 2:50 PM, dgambill said: Agreed but I think they like Michigan State will improve after December...they always get stronger. We will see...certainly another team like Illinois or Minnesota could improve to that level as well. Just like I said, UW certainly belongs in that group. We still need to prove that we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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