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Scoring Droughts

IowaHoosierFan

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IowaHoosierFan

IowaHoosierFan

Posted
Posted

Has anyone who is really into statistics and trends been able to look into if its a specific line-up or pairing of players that causes this?  Or does it matter at all and its just something this team is always going to deal with?

I don't have the mindset to go and figure it out myself but would love to see what other can find and present to HSN.

Go Hoosiers!!!

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rico

rico

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Has anyone who is really into statistics and trends been able to look into if its a specific line-up or pairing of players that causes this?  Or does it matter at all and its just something this team is always going to deal with?

I don't have the mindset to go and figure it out myself but would love to see what other can find and present to HSN.

Go Hoosiers!!!

I really haven't went into it that deeply.  It is something we discussed in another thread somewhere.  But to me it doesn't matter who is on the floor but rather that anything that could go wrong does.  Forced shots, turnovers, missed FT's, and the other team knocking down shots.  Usually getting to the line cures droughts but not with this team.  

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dgambill

dgambill

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Posted
34 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

At least the last couple of games the droughts have not been as prolonged like 10+ minutes but like 5 minutes.  Also it seems like any game I have watched lately sees both teams go into prolonged droughts on offense but have no clue why.

Obviously we have certain combinations of players where we simply don't have a guy that can create his own shot or get the ball inside or someone that can finish down low. Outside of that to me the biggest issue in our scoring droughts are that it starts on defense. When the other team scores we take it out and we don't get into transition like we do off of misses and turnovers. I really believe we have some of the best floor running bigs in the B1G. Trayce, Race, and Justin run the floor well...even Brunk does a good job. They get good position down low and that helps us get the ball inside etc. Also there are more spaces for our guards to drive. When we have to set up and really work the offense...its very difficult for us because of our lack of shooting. We still can get it inside etc but it just usually isn't as efficient because of the defense in better position. So...other team scoring...us struggling to get open looks..it compounds...and the momentum switches. Unfortunately we just don't have really great shooting to end these droughts and take pressure off the offense. Also the reason we probably won't blow too many teams out and they can hang around...we can execute well...but just don't have the shooting to stretch leads out past 12 points it seems before giving up a run in a dry spell. As the shooting improves...everything else can change. Just my observation.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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3 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Someone broke down the drought against Nebraska.  I believe it was 3 turnovers, a bad shot or 2, and just some empty possessions, over like 5 or 6 mins. 

Doing it game by game is fine, but that won't point out any trends over time.  The question of "Is there a common player/combination on the court during these droughts?" is a completely valid one. 

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dgambill

dgambill

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Posted
4 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Someone broke down the drought against Nebraska.  I believe it was 3 turnovers, a bad shot or 2, and just some empty possessions, over like 5 or 6 mins. 

Yes...empty possessions are AWFUL!!! Turnovers and missed free throws kill us because we don't shoot well enough to overcome those mistakes. You lose possessions that means you need to shoot a better percentage to make up for it....and if you miss free throws that is like an empty possession...we don't have enough to overcome that.

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dgambill

dgambill

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Posted
1 minute ago, Zlinedavid said:

Doing it game by game is fine, but that won't point out any trends over time.  The question of "Is there a common player/combination on the court during these droughts?" is a completely valid one. 

I would bet any combination of Trayce and Rob not on the floor will result in bad runs. Seems just by watching Al/Green is a bad combo in the backcourt. I would do my best not to have Rob and Trayce off the floor at the same time...but it just happens sometimes. I'm sure someone has splits etc but that is too much work for a Friday after a win lol.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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1 minute ago, dgambill said:

I would bet any combination of Trayce and Rob not on the floor will result in bad runs. Seems just by watching Al/Green is a bad combo in the backcourt. I would do my best not to have Rob and Trayce off the floor at the same time...but it just happens sometimes. I'm sure someone has splits etc but that is too much work for a Friday after a win lol.

To do it accurately, you'd need statistics that were either based on game time and event, or possession-by-possession.  ESPN has things like scoring plays and fouls done on a time basis, but it doesn't record substitutions. 

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dgambill

dgambill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Zlinedavid said:

To do it accurately, you'd need statistics that were either based on game time and event, or possession-by-possession.  ESPN has things like scoring plays and fouls done on a time basis, but it doesn't record substitutions. 

Sure...I bet only the coaches have broken these types of things down....I know professional teams do...no way a website is going to devote that much attention to it.

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rico

rico

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Sure...I bet only the coaches have broken these types of things down....I know professional teams do...no way a website is going to devote that much attention to it.

I am sure the coaches/staff have this stuff broken down.  Hell, my old ball coach used to do it back in the mid 80's.  The thing in all honesty that is the biggest variable is the opponent.  That means the match-ups that we have to deal with.  Variables....No way to put them into an equation.

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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Posted

Well I'll be hornswoggled.  I think I found a data source/API that I can tap into for free.  I'm limited on the number of requests I can make (1000/month), so it may take me a little bit to compile, but it is out there (cue X Files music). 

Just in case anyone was curious, this is what such data looks like (Scott, you may want to shield your eyes): 

<event id="064fe781-2ac2-4159-a81b-7c79238b4201" clock="20:00" updated="2020-01-24T01:44:32+00:00" sequence="1579830272404" home_points="0" away_points="0" clock_decimal="20:00" event_type="opentip">
        <description>Marcus Bingham Jr. vs. Trayce Jackson-Davis (Rob Phinisee gains possession)</description>
        <attribution name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a" team_basket="left"/>
        <location coord_x="563" coord_y="300"/>
        <possession name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a"/>
        <on_court>
          <home name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a">
            <player full_name="Al Durham" jersey_number="1" id="6897db83-b25f-4c54-832a-0ff0c3cb86ff"/>
            <player full_name="Justin Smith" jersey_number="3" id="d446cc91-8d04-4e7a-88ce-dca3b52a429b"/>
            <player full_name="Trayce Jackson-Davis" jersey_number="4" id="c468bdc9-4778-496a-985e-7911dc6a1ff2"/>
            <player full_name="Rob Phinisee" jersey_number="10" id="481ffe40-392b-4a1b-89ec-0d9453495639"/>
            <player full_name="Joey Brunk" jersey_number="50" id="0eaf943f-8b30-4b34-a91d-8dbf9015b95f"/>
          </home>
          <away name="Spartans" market="Michigan State" id="a41d5a05-4c11-4171-a57e-e7a1ea325a6d">
            <player full_name="Cassius Winston" jersey_number="5" id="678762fc-dcb1-4f72-986e-cf36a3b33d6c"/>
            <player full_name="Aaron Henry" jersey_number="11" id="10a706d7-3eec-4d4c-8d9d-fa0ae09ad97d"/>
            <player full_name="Xavier Tillman" jersey_number="23" id="a2075cee-0901-4d6f-9b88-08673d300540"/>
            <player full_name="Marcus Bingham Jr." jersey_number="30" id="8369555d-792d-4f67-be72-03f668e34412"/>
            <player full_name="Gabe Brown" jersey_number="44" id="2fd27ad3-2a80-4074-8f3e-442a5b469364"/>
          </away>
        </on_court>
      </event>

That's the opening tipoff from yesterday. 

Probably won't be today, but if anyone wants to look back and record the games and game times of the scoring droughts, that would give me a jump start. 

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Zlinedavid

Zlinedavid

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43 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I know it is not a great tool but could you look at plus/minus on players to get a little idea of the droughts.

Plus/Minus is actually deceptive.  I can't recall which of the last two games it was, but in one of them, Rob had a negative +/-. 

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Fiveoutofsix

Fiveoutofsix

Posted
Posted

Everytm team has scoring droughts.  IU's can seem longer because of the poor free throw shooting.  Hit the front of a 1:1 and different story.  

With signs of some growing confidence from the perimeter, baby steps, by seasons end this could be two way dominant squad.

Hopefully as Green adapts to his new role, he can become a stretch shooter.  This will take a few more weeks because he is overthinking right now, and that will be part of the learning curve.

I wonder how much practice reps Rob still gets?  He always seems like he has a nagging injury that he is gutting through.  I have to think his timing on passes would be better.  Also HE IS NOT getting the same explosive lift off the floor as he did last year.

Franklin is only going to grow and Trayce as well.  I would like to see Trayce walk into a shot and try and knock it down.  He has good rotation.

The droughts hopefully get better, soon.  

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FKIM01

FKIM01

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20 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

Plus/Minus is actually deceptive.  I can't recall which of the last two games it was, but in one of them, Rob had a negative +/-. 

I don't think Archie puts much faith in it either.  Seems there was a recent game where the +/- completely contradicted who had the good games.

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IUFLA

IUFLA

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

Well I'll be hornswoggled.  I think I found a data source/API that I can tap into for free.  I'm limited on the number of requests I can make (1000/month), so it may take me a little bit to compile, but it is out there (cue X Files music). 

Just in case anyone was curious, this is what such data looks like (Scott, you may want to shield your eyes): 


<event id="064fe781-2ac2-4159-a81b-7c79238b4201" clock="20:00" updated="2020-01-24T01:44:32+00:00" sequence="1579830272404" home_points="0" away_points="0" clock_decimal="20:00" event_type="opentip">
        <description>Marcus Bingham Jr. vs. Trayce Jackson-Davis (Rob Phinisee gains possession)</description>
        <attribution name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a" team_basket="left"/>
        <location coord_x="563" coord_y="300"/>
        <possession name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a"/>
        <on_court>
          <home name="Hoosiers" market="Indiana" id="c3f0a8ce-af67-497f-a750-3b859376b20a">
            <player full_name="Al Durham" jersey_number="1" id="6897db83-b25f-4c54-832a-0ff0c3cb86ff"/>
            <player full_name="Justin Smith" jersey_number="3" id="d446cc91-8d04-4e7a-88ce-dca3b52a429b"/>
            <player full_name="Trayce Jackson-Davis" jersey_number="4" id="c468bdc9-4778-496a-985e-7911dc6a1ff2"/>
            <player full_name="Rob Phinisee" jersey_number="10" id="481ffe40-392b-4a1b-89ec-0d9453495639"/>
            <player full_name="Joey Brunk" jersey_number="50" id="0eaf943f-8b30-4b34-a91d-8dbf9015b95f"/>
          </home>
          <away name="Spartans" market="Michigan State" id="a41d5a05-4c11-4171-a57e-e7a1ea325a6d">
            <player full_name="Cassius Winston" jersey_number="5" id="678762fc-dcb1-4f72-986e-cf36a3b33d6c"/>
            <player full_name="Aaron Henry" jersey_number="11" id="10a706d7-3eec-4d4c-8d9d-fa0ae09ad97d"/>
            <player full_name="Xavier Tillman" jersey_number="23" id="a2075cee-0901-4d6f-9b88-08673d300540"/>
            <player full_name="Marcus Bingham Jr." jersey_number="30" id="8369555d-792d-4f67-be72-03f668e34412"/>
            <player full_name="Gabe Brown" jersey_number="44" id="2fd27ad3-2a80-4074-8f3e-442a5b469364"/>
          </away>
        </on_court>
      </event>

That's the opening tipoff from yesterday. 

Probably won't be today, but if anyone wants to look back and record the games and game times of the scoring droughts, that would give me a jump start. 

Here's 4 I looked at on CBSSports play by play...these are FG droughts...

MSU from 7:18 to 3:44 of the first half

Nebraska 12:56 to 6:51 2nd half

Rutgers 6:54 to 2:07 1st half

And 20:00 to 15:09 2nd half

OSU 9:57 TO 0:00 1st half

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