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IU makes NCAA but can you go to games....no fans for march madness!

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11 hours ago, CincyHoosier said:

Anyone heard of influenza?  I can say definitively influenza is a greater risk to your health in this country right now than coronavirus. 

 

24 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Per a story I heard on the tv this morning.... the flu killed over 30,000 Americans in 2019.

The only thing scary about the coronavirus is how quickly it has spread, but the flu is much worse statistically and no one is worried about it. The institutional traders are making a killing f'ing with the stock market using it as cover.

image.png.81aa1da2cab8c4e96f10e14fb94ede7b.png

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I posted this in the Animal House Coronavirus thread-

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

I have also seen that it MIGHT affect Asians more than Europeans and Africans, men worse than women, older more than younger. That would explain why kids aren't being affected as much and why there has not been a huge outbreak in Africa despite their poor medical infrastructure.  I'd be worried if I was an 80+ yr old Asian male.  Not so much for Womens NCAA athlete.

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11 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I posted this in the Animal House Coronavirus thread-

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

I have also seen that it MIGHT affect Asians more than Europeans and Africans, men worse than women, older more than younger. That would explain why kids aren't being affected as much and why there has not been a huge outbreak in Africa despite their poor medical infrastructure.  I'd be worried if I was an 80+ yr old Asian male.  Not so much for Womens NCAA athlete.

That's the thing here.  If you or someone you interact with falls in the danger profile, take the necessary precautions.  But, at this time there is nothing to suggest the world should turn itself upside down by doing things like cancelling major events.

The drop in the stock market has been an absurd overreaction fueled by unnecessary fear through the media.

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16 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I posted this in the Animal House Coronavirus thread-

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

I have also seen that it MIGHT affect Asians more than Europeans and Africans, men worse than women, older more than younger. That would explain why kids aren't being affected as much and why there has not been a huge outbreak in Africa despite their poor medical infrastructure.  I'd be worried if I was an 80+ yr old Asian male.  Not so much for Womens NCAA athlete.

I think they'd play the games, just not allow spectators. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't go to see IU in a first round game in Spokane right now. 

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3 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I think they'd play the games, just not allow spectators. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't go to see IU in a first round game in Spokane right now. 

I would because you don't need to live in fear but it does not matter because I couldn't afford to go right now anyways.

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25 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I would because you don't need to live in fear but it does not matter because I couldn't afford to go right now anyways.

It's not about living in fear. I'm not afraid of dying from the virus. It's about containing the virus and stopping it from spreading. It the CDC determines that it's not the best decision to have 20,000 people in close proximity in the state where the breakout is the worst, I'm going to listen to the scientists....not to save my own ass, but to be a responsible citizen and prevent the spread.....i.e. completely eliminate the chance of bringing it back to Indiana. 

29 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

That's the thing here.  If you or someone you interact with falls in the danger profile, take the necessary precautions.  But, at this time there is nothing to suggest the world should turn itself upside down by doing things like cancelling major events.

The drop in the stock market has been an absurd overreaction fueled by unnecessary fear through the media.

Not disagreeing that speculation runs rampant and I'm not qualified to determine what is and isn't and over-reaction, but my industry has been affected due to the stock shortages and increased production times that resulted in Chinese factories shutting down. This morning's news reported that the airline industry is facing a $1.3 billion dollar blow. Airports in Seattle are ghost towns. Schools are shut down in Washington. This is having an affect on the economy. 

Edited by tdhoosier
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I work in leadership at a top-ranked US health system. We are in a large metro area with mass transit. Our docs and leadership are taking this VERY seriously. Our travel policy is tightening up by the day and I will not be attending events with thousands of people. I've had multiple talks and meetings with our faculty about this and they are all in agreement that an abundance of caution is wise at this time. With the shocking lack of testing in the US, there is no real way to know the extent of spread right now and in the future.

Yes, the media and the stock market are freaking out a bit right now, but burying your head in the sand or minimizing it is not smart. When a nationally known ID doc tells me, "You would be crazy to go to an airport or get on a plane right now," I tend to listen. These people are calm, levelheaded, science-based experts and they say, "be cautious and do everything you can to protect yourself."

For them, this means cancelling academic conference talks even when they are the main speaker! If they are afraid to travel and sit in a room with thousands of people, then I'm going to refrain from doing that as well until we see how things shake out.

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1 hour ago, Reacher said:

I posted this in the Animal House Coronavirus thread-

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

I have also seen that it MIGHT affect Asians more than Europeans and Africans, men worse than women, older more than younger. That would explain why kids aren't being affected as much and why there has not been a huge outbreak in Africa despite their poor medical infrastructure.  I'd be worried if I was an 80+ yr old Asian male.  Not so much for Womens NCAA athlete.

Also, the flu "argument" is kinda weird. They are not mutually exclusive. 

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15 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

It's not about living in fear. I'm not afraid of dying from the virus. It's about containing the virus and stopping it from spreading. It the CDC determines that it's not the best decision to have 20,000 people in close proximity in the state where the breakout is the worst, I'm going to listen to the scientists....not to save my own ass, but to be a responsible citizen and prevent the spread.....i.e. completely eliminate the chance of bringing it back to Indiana. 

Not disagreeing that speculation runs rampant and I'm not qualified to determine what is and isn't and over-reaction, but my industry has been affected due to the stock shortages and increased production times that resulted in Chinese factories shutting down. This morning's news reported that the airline industry is facing a $1.3 billion dollar blow. Airports in Seattle are ghost towns. Schools are shut down in Washington. This is having an affect on the economy. 

This is right on the money. My risk of death or significant illness from COVID-19 appears to be low. What about my patients and co-workers? What about my 74 year old dad? What about all the other people in my community? I am not the only person that matters, my actions will have effects on others.

Right now people just need to take extra precautions. Be vigilant about hand-washing. Don't go to work, church, or the grocery store if you come down with cold/flu-like symptoms. Maybe keep a couple weeks of food at the house. I'm not sure about cancelling major events yet but if the powers that be make that decision, I'll respect that.

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28 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

It's not about living in fear. I'm not afraid of dying from the virus. It's about containing the virus and stopping it from spreading. It the CDC determines that it's not the best decision to have 20,000 people in close proximity in the state where the breakout is the worst, I'm going to listen to the scientists....not to save my own ass, but to be a responsible citizen and prevent the spread.....i.e. completely eliminate the chance of bringing it back to Indiana. 

This right here. A majority of people will be fine if they catch the virus. But think about how many people you come in contact with on a daily/weekly basis. You're risking infection for every one of those people, some of which won't be able to fight it off as well as you or I. 

Also, not sure if it has hit local outlets yet, but we have our first suspected case this morning at a local Indianapolis hospital. It is definitely coming to Indiana so we shouldn't view it as some far off issue for others to worry about.

Edited by PhinithreeMagic
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1 minute ago, OGIUAndy said:

Also, the flu "argument" is kinda weird. They are not mutually exclusive. 

 
If there is a coronavirus breakout and 35 million (last year's flus cases) people are affected, at a 3% death rate that'd mean almost 1 million deaths. That's a far cry from the 34,000 (or .1%) deaths caused by influenza. I'm not sure why everybody keeps on comparing this to the flu; this line of thinking was debunked a month ago. And if it was "just as bad as the flu" why would multiple countries be spending a ton of money to contain it? Even our congress who can't agree on what color the sky is passed an $8.3 billion funding package.
 
I do realize that the 3.4% death rate is changing as more info comes in, but whether it goes below 2 or above 4, it's still way higher than .1%. This combined with the fact, that as preliminary studies report, the coronavirus is 2 to 3 times more contagious than the flu.  This is why precaution is being exercised and the reason for multiple public health warnings.
 
Really not trying to be a know it all, but there seems to be a lot of bad information out there. Again, nobody is saying we should panic, but I do think it's best to be informed.
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19 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I work in leadership at a top-ranked US health system. We are in a large metro area with mass transit. Our docs and leadership are taking this VERY seriously. Our travel policy is tightening up by the day and I will not be attending events with thousands of people. I've had multiple talks and meetings with our faculty about this and they are all in agreement that an abundance of caution is wise at this time. With the shocking lack of testing in the US, there is no real way to know the extent of spread right now and in the future.

Yes, the media and the stock market are freaking out a bit right now, but burying your head in the sand or minimizing it is not smart. When a nationally known ID doc tells me, "You would be crazy to go to an airport or get on a plane right now," I tend to listen. These people are calm, levelheaded, science-based experts and they say, "be cautious and do everything you can to protect yourself."

For them, this means cancelling academic conference talks even when they are the main speaker! If they are afraid to travel and sit in a room with thousands of people, then I'm going to refrain from doing that as well until we see how things shake out.

Very much agreed and same - I work at a hospital in a state with no known cases at this point, yet we're taking it very seriously as well. It's not as much about whether you are personally at risk or not (and this is the same mistake I see people making with the flu shot). It's about you transmitting the disease to someone else, until it gets to someone who IS at risk, and those people are dying. 

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If they are afraid about all the people at the tournament games then why are they not saying about the conference tournament games.  In the last month there have been thousands of games across the US with pack crowds so why is the tournament any different.

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12 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

If they are afraid about all the people at the tournament games then why are they not saying about the conference tournament games.  In the last month there have been thousands of games across the US with pack crowds so why is the tournament any different.

Good question, Scott. Everyone is just trying to get their hands around how to handle this. There is very little consistency at this point between organizations and groups, and even health systems.

The focus now is to try to minimize spread and potential spread. I would not attend any game, concert, or movie right now. I've even switched up my commuting times quite a bit, so mass transit is much less crowded. I'm used to crowds and packed commutes, but I'm avoiding both at this point.

People might think this is overreacting, but they also might feel differently when they start getting dozens of cases in their own backyard.

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John's Hopkins has announced after confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Maryland they are going to be playing the D2 tournament games, they are hosting without an audience.

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22 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

If they are afraid about all the people at the tournament games then why are they not saying about the conference tournament games.  In the last month there have been thousands of games across the US with pack crowds so why is the tournament any different.

Because Viruses spread exponentially. Last week at this time there were only a handful of cases. As of this morning they are 164 cases in 19 states. Likely at this time next week there will be thousands of cases in almost all states. The virus is expected to peak (last I heard) in late March/early April....that's when the tournament is in full swing. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll start hearing news about conference tournaments not allowing spectators soon. Especially conferences on the West Coast. 

The disturbing thing is that the numbers above are probably way higher - they just don't have enough testing kits to find out. My friend works in a nursing home in Washington and can't get tested. Only 75k kist have been made available; we are way behind the ball on this one. 

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With the profession I am in I really need to be careful because I work for a trucking company.  I work in our corporate office in Indianapolis but we have drivers coming in all the time. I doubt my bosses will let me stay home and work from home so I just have to take precautions which everyone should do but I am still not going to stop going out and doing things I enjoy doing.

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All i know is I will continue to do my part and avoid being around people as much as possible.  Wont be hard because I do it everyday. 

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5 hours ago, cybergates said:

 

The only thing scary about the coronavirus is how quickly it has spread, but the flu is much worse statistically and no one is worried about it. The institutional traders are making a killing f'ing with the stock market using it as cover.

image.png.81aa1da2cab8c4e96f10e14fb94ede7b.png

Coronavirus is as contagious as the flu, and, by conservative estimates, 10 times more deadly. So, if we don't stop it from spreading the way the flu does, you can put an extra zero on those deaths and hospitalizations.

That doesn't even account for the fact that there are highly effective vaccines for the flu. 

Edited by HoosierDom
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There is always an overestimation of death rates for "novel" viruses like the current coronavirus.  The death rate is likely much lower than the quoted 3.4% which is from the initial outbreak in China.  More current estimates put it closer to 1% and this is likely an overestimation as well.  The coronavirus family, after all, is one of the leading causes of the common cold. 

I'm not saying we should ignore it, but the fear mongering over it is excessive.  It falls somewhere in the area of influenza in terms of disease severity.  And I don't ignore flu, I test for it every day at work during flu season and talk to hundreds of families about it every year. 

"U.S. health officials on Thursday briefed lawmakers in Congress and said they believe the case fatality rate in this country will most likely be in the range of 0.1 to 1.0 percent, meaning somewhere between one of every thousand and one of every hundred people with covid-19 will die."

"That would make covid-19 closer in lethality to influenza in severe or pandemic flu seasons, according to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine co-authored by Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease. The article states that the true fatality rate of covid-19 “may be considerably less” than 1 percent, and “may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)"

"official numbers do not capture the full scope of the contagion. The actual number of deaths from the virus might be somewhat higher, in part because of undercounting or misdiagnosis. There is little doubt that the number of infections — in many cases among people who either did not get sick or thought they had only a mild illness — is larger than the official case count. The infection rate will not be known until researchers do broad surveys to see who has developed antibodies to the virus."

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Fascinating discussion...appreciate all the perspectives, especially from those actually in the healthcare profession.

I am not, but as an investment manager/financial advisor, I am very interested in what the news is doing to global markets.  The company I work with put out what I'd call a white paper I could share with clients and it covered all the pandemics going back to the AIDS epidemic of the early '80's.  I don't have it in front of me at the moment, but what I do remember is that none of them had any lasting effects on financial markets.  I think the only one where there was a market decline sustained for more than 12 months was the early '80's AIDS epidemic and anyone around back then remembers there were other factors that probably had a lot more to do with the market decline at that time.

Won't argue that it's not worth taking seriously and I actually think it makes a lot of sense to eliminate or at least restrict large crowds until this has peaked and is beginning to decline because  people are stupid.  Some idiot or idiots with $500 seats will not miss watching their beloved Kayuts no matter how bad they feel and that is a recipe for fanning the flames and spreading more misery.

That all being said, yeah...I suspect it's overhyped.  As @cybergates was saying earlier, someone is making a killing riding the wave.  I was buying for my own accounts this afternoon.  May not be the bottom, but it's way cheaper than it was.

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