GaloisGroupe

Real barn burner in Wisconsin 13 -18 at the half

So the expected # of wins would be: 0.56 + 0.32 + 0.67 + 0.31 + 0.83 + 0.62 + 0.87 + 0.31 = 4.49

I thought of one positive from the game: the fans didn't storm the court! 🤣🤣🤣

Just like the Michigan game, it is what it is. The key is that the team needs to rebound in the same way and win the next games. For now, we have our buoyancy level: a solid, but not quite elite team.

We did miss RP in this one. A second lock-down defender on the perimeter would have made it closer. That being said, they just wore us out and I do not think much changes that. On defense, we need two Race Thompsons

On to the next one, hopefully we punish NW for this beat down.

They just physically dominated us.

We have gotten away from our offense - that usually is not a good sign

Nothing has really gone our way so far and we have not brought in the super subs yet

Time to bring in some bench players

I am ok with him taking because if he hits a couple today and they have to start defending him out there, we would have a huge opportunity. Whereas a miss just doesn't change things much. As long as we do not work exclusively for it, it is a medium risk, high reward shot.

Seriously, cockburn slams an elbow and Durr for standing there

Cockburn fouls a lot

Some of us may want to delete some early season comments about Durr not being valuable in the big ten 🤣

The ball.

Both of those fouls did not make sense - TJD cannot pick up a foul that far fro the rim today... We may be watching Duncomb by the end of the game.

They are just hyping ESPN products - UK - Louisville is not that big of a rivalry; completely onesided

LET"S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!! I am so pumped for this game.

Additional fire for the number of wins Using the same probabilities (and assuming independence, which I know is a strong assumption): vs UI 0.65 @ NW, 0.7 @ MSU 0.2 vs Wisc 0.8 @ OSU 0.1 vs MD 0.9 @ Minn 0.5 vs RU 0.8 @ PU 0.1 Then the probability distribution is: Number of wins Probability 0 0.000136 1 0.003084 2 0.026578 3 0.114138 4 0.263719 5 0.326893 6 0.203126 7 0.055623 8 0.006441 9 0.000262 So under my assumptions, the 3 or fewer (~14.4%) AND the 6 or more (~26.5%) are BOTH reasonably likely. Food for the argument 🤣... (Note: There are 9^2 = 512 different possible outcomes in terms of wins and losses over the last 9, so I left out the formulas.)

I agree, that was a final four team that hit the worst possible opponent.

That year reminded of the pedro cerrano character in major leagues. (enough fastballs, throw him some breaking balls - about 1 minute into the video) "Wow this team is amazing - how are they not favored to win the title?" "Enough man-to-man, show them a 2-3 zone"

I just made them up - I am nervous about road games at this point (if MD on the road looks more like the norm, I would reassess and shift some of those probabilities). It is more an illustration of how we could argue about expected wins. If you have different probabilities, you can recalculate the expected wins. EDIT: As far as the difference with Minny, I just think they are the better team. I think we caught them off guard with Trey's return. They will have prepared for him this time.

I think we mostly agree on games, the probability theory just allows us to quantify our uncertainty. Qualitatively Small chance: MSU, OSU, PU Coin toss: Minn on the road Slightly favored: UI at home, NW on the road Favored: Wisc, MD, RU at home So I would say 5-4 off of that, however, I am "more confident" in some of the losses than the favored at this time, so the adjusts it down for that. Someone else might say, I think the UI game at home is a coin toss and change that to 0.5 (or even lower) and then they can recalculate or only favor us slightly in the Wisc game and shift that from 0.8 to 0.6. Then they can recalculate.

To throw some fire on the "counting" all leans as wins or losses, here is a probability theory approach to determining the "Expected number of wins". Notations: P = probability, | = conditioned on, O = outcome, V = venue, F = foe (since O was already used), W = number of wins over the last 9 games, w = win, l=loss, h= home, a = away, E[.] = expected value Example of notation: P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = "probability of the outcome being a win conditioned on foe being University of Illinois and the venue being at home" and so P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = 0.65 means I am assigning a 65% chance we win against Illinois at home. With this I can assess my probability (my assessments - you can create your own or use website) of a win for the remaining games: P(O=w | F=UI and V=h) = 0.65 P(O=w | F=NW and V=a) = 0.7 P(O=w | F=MSU and V=a) = 0.2 P(O=w | F=Wisc and V=h) = 0.8 P(O=w | F=OSU and V=a) = 0.1 P(O=w | F=UMCP and V=h) = 0.9 P(O=w | F=Minn and V=a) = 0.5 P(O=w | F=RU and V=h) = 0.8 P(O=w | F=PU and V=a) = 0.1 So my expected # of wins over the last nine is: E[W] = ∑ P(Oi=w | F=fi and V=vi) = 0.65 + 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.1 = 4.75 wins. If we win on Saturday (and I do not reassess probabilities for the remaining games), then my expected number of wins would jump 0.35 to 5.1 wins and if we lose it would drop 0.65 to 4.1 wins (every observed win or loss is a swing of 1).

This is why I am nervous... hard to shake some of our late(ish) season collapses on what I thought would be tournament teams. 2016-2017: We collapsed after impressive early season (wins over Kansas and UNC); peak moment: 8-1 with wins over Kansas and UNC last moment likely "in tournament": on 8 Feb we were 15-9 (5-6) - lose to PU on the 9th and the rest is history 2017-2018: Early season losses to ISU and IUPUFW kept this from feeling great early but: Peak moment: on 22 Jan we were 12-8 (5-3) last moment likely "in tournament": on 19 Feb we were 16-12 (9-7), lose the next three and the rest is history 2018-2019: I am still scratching my head over that 1-11 streak... Peak moment: on 05 Jan we were 12-2 (3-0) last moment likely "in tournament": hard to say, but we lost 11 of 12 after the peak and the rest is history 2019-2020: Peak moment: on 23 Jan we were 15-4 (5-3) last moment likely "in tournament": I do not want to rehash, but probably when COVID ended the season 2020-2021: Peak moment: no real peak to the season last moment likely "in tournament": probably would have had a punchers chance had the season ended when we were 12-9 (7-7) on 17 Feb - then we lost the last 6 and the rest is history This team feels different... I have not felt this confident in a LONG time, but that was lot of disappointing finishes.