tdhoosier

I've committed myself to consistent exercise, eating healthy and less alcohol. It's still happening. ....but damn that alcohol is slowly creeping back in. I too like both, but i'm #teammexico

I'm at a stage in my social distancing that I'm actually confusing/intermingling the plotlines of the many shows I'm watching. Lately I've been confusing Narcos Mexico with Ozark 3 with Better Call Sal. Is my problem that i watch too much tv or that I have some weird fascination with Mexican drug cartels right now?

China has slowly been tightening their grasp on the balls of other countries for the last 30-40 years like a slow moving train. We consumers like our crap cheap and China filled that void. Although there've been efforts like the TPP or other policies to diversify our supply and cut China out, this ultimately would've taken a Herculean task to unwind.....or a crisis. Unfortunately, we're getting the latter. What I'd give to see 5 years into the future to see what global changes this pandemic will ultimately spur.

Just revisiting the China convo from a couple of pages back. I'm a distributor for promotional merchandise. So much of the stuff I get is from China and a lot of my suppliers are converting their factories over to manufacture PPE, specifically facemasks. I've never sold a face mask in my life up until 2 weeks ago and that's all I'm sourcing and ordering now. 3M and domestic suppliers for facemasks are directing their supplies directly to hospitals so the secondary market has been pushed to China. The secondary market is a mix of Amazon orders, companies trying to secure masks for their essential employees, companies trying to secure masks for the non-essential employees who will soon be returning to work, etc. It's like the Wild West out there: production times, inventory levels, and prices are changing at the drop of the hat. The main problem right now is that because of the high demands, everything is just sitting on planes or waiting to get on planes. If you have ordered a facemask on Amazon and keep getting updates that your order is delayed another week...this is why. The eye opening thing for many is that we are too heavily relying on China in a time of emergency for a crisis they more or less created. They are obviously too interwoven into our supply chain and word on the street is that a huge company in my industry (possibly the biggest) is already reevaluating their their relationship with China and have begun looking at other countries to fulfill their production needs. I'm hoping other companies follow suit. While China is sitting pretty right now, I think the long term backlash will be devastating for them. @milehiiu also already brought up the fact that they produce so many of our pharmaceuticals. All I can think about now, is what will happen from a production/distribution standpoint when a vaccine is created and needs to be sent to the entire world? I hope planning has already begun for this scenario so we don't have to rely on China as much.

Hope that’s the case. He did say he’s heard it could be as high as 10% but doesn’t think that estimation is accurate. I think we may be mixing infection rate and severity of symptoms. I think people’s immune systems are strong in warmer climates because they naturally get more vitamin D from the sun. So, while they may be infected, they’re able to fight it off better? I’m completely talking out of my a**, just a theory - I’m definitely no expert. My summarization doesn’t do justice. I still do recommend listening; it’s only 15-20 minutes.

-He goes in to the obvious, flattening the curve means slowing the spread. Just because we have a downturn is cases doesn't mean that the virus is gone. We are most likely going to be going through intermittent, controllable waves of social distancing for a while -Most accurate estimates say that 3% of the population has had it. Best case scenario without vaccine, if the infected develop and sustain immunities, the virus wouldn't die out until we reach 70% infected because the virus simply will have a hard time finding a host without antibodies at that point. -The record for bringing a vaccine to market was for the mumps - and that took 4 years. -Despite the hopeful articles being posted, there is zero reliable research that shows it going away (or into hibernation) in the summer. If this was the case it wouldn't be spreading it's way through countries with warm climates now. -Even if we can bring a vaccination to market quickly there's going to be a huge hurdle in getting it manufactured and distributed to the entire world. Even if the US gets first dibs, we'd need 300 million vaccines. The largest amount of vaccine produced in a year is 8 million (for comparison's sake). -If above holds true, he talks about a new reality where people with antibodies are more valuable because they can't get infected. They're already in high demand so we can analyze their blood. But they can also help out in ICU's without fear of getting infected, for example. Plus they'll be able to go back to work and lead a normal like quicker than others. Because of this he speculates about people getting infected on purpose like we did when we were young, having "chicken pox parties".

Continuing my role as a wet blanket.... At the end of February I listened to a podcast with Donald McNeil who's a science a health reporter. Listening to him is what initially worried me about COVID19. Back then he was talking about cities shutting down, when I didn't that could possibly happen here. He's been on the forefront with many of his prognostications. I shared that podcast with IUFLA a couple of weeks ago. He wasn't exactly right, but he was pretty darn close...at least about how we'd respond as a country. Well (gulp), he just gave another interview on The Daily today which is both informative and sobering. I'm sharing this, hoping you don't write him off as an alarmist. Like I said, he was right about many of the things that happened since February. I hope he's wrong. I know he hopes he's wrong. But we could be in for quite the ride. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000472047223

I really don't try to be a wet blanket in my responses, just putting thoughts out there. haha Looking at these state and federal checklists, there's one thing that's going to keep delaying reopening and that is tests. I have 2 friends who are pretty certain they have it - their doctors are certain they have and they STILL can't get tested. I just can't imagine we'll be reopening things up until states feel they have a grasp on who is infected and who has antibodies. This whole shut down, whether you agree with or not, really has been a stalling tactic. The reality is that the virus is new and we don't know much about it, so the government is stalling until they have enough information to ensure it's safe to go back out in public. Until we a. can ensure hospitals won't be overcrowded b. know the infection rate and c. know the death rate, they won't reopen things - and this is all tied back to testing. Governors have been asking for these special testing swabs for the last few weeks so more of these tests can be performed. Yesterday the Defense Production Act was issued yesterday which is a step in the right direction IMO. As far as i'm concerned, let's do everything we can to compel companies to manufacture testing kits ASAP. The faster it happens, the faster things open up and the sooner we can get back to work.

I've been reading opinions that China will benefit in the short term from this while the rest of the world is nursing their people and economies back to help, which makes plausible sense to me. However, I am wondering it this is the straw that breaks the camel's back and it will hurt them in the long term. Horrible viruses keep on coming from this part of the world. China has been lucky that previous ones did not have an impact to this degree. It's only a matter of time that the rest of the civilized world is going to hold this against China for covering up the severity of the spread and wrecking the global economy. I think they were saying that the transmission wasn't human to human all the way up until January 19th (even though experts didn't believe them), and then a couple of days shut later they shut down Wuhan while their foot was still in their mouth.

One thing in common about all conspiracy theories is that they raise "interesting questions" that can send you down rabbit holes, whether it's conspiracies that the Earth is flat or the Holocaust didn't exist. These questions are always raised while dancing around the central subject. Like for example. why did Fauci say Trump was going to face a pandemic (gasp)???? How about because every administration faces the threat of pandemic. Or why was Fauci researching the coronavirus two years ago (gasp)? Because that's what epidemiologists do. They also leave out that there are MULTIPLE types of coronavirus including MERS and SARS, so why wouldn't he be researching it? Then they Interview a crackpot doctor and the seed is planted.... The doctor this time? Rashid Buttar who pushes alternative medicine; while he touts his credentials as a medical doctor, he was charged by the North Carolina Medical Board in 2008 for unprofessional conduct after charging “exorbitant fees” to cancer patients, three of whom died, for “ineffectual therapies.” Recently, he’s been pushing fringe theories about the coronavirus’s link to 5G, and that it was intentionally engineered to spur crackdowns on civil liberties. IMO, these types of videos don't need to be posted in this thread.

@IU Scott glad to hear it isn’t hitting you hard. Hope you get through this quickly and your parents are safe. It is interesting how this virus affects people differently: some hospitalized, some have high fevers for 5 days, some have mild fevers for a few days and some don’t even know that they are sick. Because it’s not getting you bad in comparison to some others I’m curious (and if you don’t mind sharing) do you consider yourself a healthy person with a healthy diet? I know I’m not going to crack any mysteries but I’m wondering if there is a correlation between less severe symptoms and healthy, vitamin rich diets/low sugar consumption/etc.

What's everybody's opinions on masks? Two weeks ago only few people were wearing masks at Costco. Last week more that half were. In CA I know that people are expected to wear one in public. I think there seems to be the general attitude that you are wearing a mask for your own protection. But I think it's more important for other people's protection. Just by talking without a mask you send airborne droplets into the air, they land on the floor, a cereal box at the store, etc. Because there's a delay in symptoms and people are unintentionally spreading COVID19, this would seem like an important measure to take. Especially as Governors are contemplating loosening restrictions. My biggest worry (other than the deaths of course) as we rollout going back out into public, is a second spike that'd force us to go back into isolation and delay us getting back to work even more. Facemasks may be annoying, but maybe a necessary precaution. Just curious about others opinions on this. Would you be upset if the state told you that you had to wear a mask in public? We'd at least get some killer tan lines.

Maybe states would have to open up in sections? I’m in the region and a whole lot of people around here work in IL. I’d guess that our trajectory is closer to Chicago than Indianapolis. Opening up a different times could cause potential issues. Again, another tough decision.

Another promising drug. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html?utm_source=fbCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_term=link&utm_content=2020-04-17T03%3A15%3A07

Happen again? It bred more terrorists. It's a never ending cycle. I agree a response with force was needed. We needed to defend our country better. But whether it was right or wrong it significantly altered the course of history, which was my greater point. I find we're veering off subject.

The government would no longer be required to disclose the identity of anyone, even an American citizen, detained in connection with a terror investigation - until criminal charges are filed, no matter how long that takes (sec 201). Current court limits on local police spying on religious and political activity would be repealed (sec. 312). The government would be allowed to obtain credit records and library records without a warrant (secs. 126, 128, 129). Wiretaps without any court order for up to 15 days after terror attack would be permissible. (sec. 103). Release of information about health/safety hazards posed by chemical and other plants would be restricted (sec. 202). The reach of an already overbroad definition of terrorism would be expanded - individuals engaged in civil disobedience could risk losing their citizenship (sec. 501); their organization could be subject to wiretapping (secs. 120, 121) and asset seizure (secs. 428, 428). Americans could be extradited, searched and wiretapped at the behest of foreign nations, whether or not treaties allow it (sec. 321, 322). Lawful immigrants would be stripped of the right to a fair deportation hearing and federal courts would not be allowed to review immigration rulings (secs. 503, 504).

2,400 dead soldiers and $2.4 trillion spent in Afghanistan? All of the civil liberty violations in the Patriot Act? Yes, we needed to act but not go that far. edit: also my point being for the Patriot Act was that it was rushed through and written in fear. Intentions may have been right in the moment, but consequences may linger. I just think we are in a similar situation right now and caution needs to be excercised.

i don't know how I feel about some of those tracking solutions. I definitely prefer the 'bluteooth coins' which is removable over the government tracking your phone. I don't know if any of you listen to Dan Carlin's history podcasts, but he always says how the biggest moments in history are triggered by over-reactions. Whether it was the assassination of Archduke Frans Ferdinand that led to WWI or the over-reaction to 9/11 which paved the way for some sketchy things in the Patriot Act or the war in Afghanistan. It's impossible to see the future, but I do wonder which pandemic reactions will be regrettable in years to come. I completely understand why the proposed tracking will be helpful, but what will that lead to?

Yikes. I do think those numbers are a tad skewed, no doubt it's really bad though. Many people are furloughed and collecting unemployment for the hours they can't work. They'll go off unemployment when things begin to open back up. We'll still have a lot of unemployed when this is over from the businesses who couldn't survive, but that number may get cut in half when restrictions are loosened. *fingers crossed this is the case*

The first half of the post was contradictory to the second half of the post. I thought we not trying to go there?

I will say it’s hard to navigate this thread without getting into politics. I’ve already gotten myself into hot water. But let me just remind people that in many cases your reality dictates your perspective. Lostin76 is in the thick of it. Hundreds of people dying everyday and he’s working for a hospital system. He’s seeing the worst if it first hand. It’s a complete change from here (where I live at least); my neighbor is an ER nurse and the hospital is cutting hours because they’re so slow. Frustrations are going to come out. I like this thread, let’s bite our tongues as best as we can and keep this thread going because it is a bit therapeutic. But also keep in mind some are living completely different realities right now...let’s try to respect that at the very least.

Now that the Tour De France is cancelled, maybe they can donate all their blood doping equipment. haha. All kidding aside, I really hope one of these trials works out.

Holcomb is contemplating loosening restrictions next week, but state officials are now saying cases aren't expected to peak until early May. This coupled with the fact that people with symptoms are still being denied tests. I can't imagine he'll go through with that plan because to a certain degree we are still flying blind. That's a huge amount of liability to take on. These governors are in tough positions, no doubt. On one side people need to work. On another side, if he opens up and cases spike and he'll be held responsible. On another-other side, if he opens up and cases spike then we have to start are social distancing all over again, thus, further delaying the opening up of the state. AND then to throw another stick on the fire...Governors have to also consider how their decisions affect their neighboring states. Damn...glad I'm not a Governor.

I definitely fall into a niche. First, if I couldn't write off all my automotive expenses I'd never lease. Secondly, i'm consistently under 12k a year on mileage. So it works for me. There's definitely a game to play with leases too. Car dealers bank on you not knowing how leases are calculated and try to confuse you. Bottom line is that you are renting a vehicle for 3 years and you are paying the depreciated amount with interest. The trick is finding the sweet spot for a car that's going under msrp that's going to hold its value well for 3 years. The car I'm currently in right now is an Acadia. I was able to get my uncle's GM employee pricing and I got an unbelievable deal. Last month when I was getting my vehicle serviced I had them price out a new accadia (still with the GM discount) and it was $120 more a month....for the same car but with a new face lift! Turns out the rebates weren't as good and the residual was not as good either. The crazy thing, I could hypothetically get into a Volvo XC90 or a Lexus RX350 for a better price because they are going for way under msrp and hold their value better. Who'd take an Acadia over an Volvo or Lexus? I just find it funny.

Yes, this is the article I read. For my wife's car we opt to do the 'newer used' too. There's a lot of good certified pre-owned programs out there that allow you to take advantage of manufacturer financing deals, plus you get another 30k miles of warranty. This seems enticing, the only problem is then we'd have to sell hers. haha. And responsible me thinks that I'd rather not have another car payment in this climate.