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Reacher

Coronavirus

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We have seen the effect its had on the market. Director of the CDC said it is certain to spread here. President commenting on it. Is it no big deal like the flu or a bio weapon that got out of hand? Are you personally concerned? Going to take any steps to prepare? Here is one investment firms take on it- ClearBridge: Assessing Coronavirus Tail Risk Scenarios.  

Edited by Reacher

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What I dont understand is why it is affecting the market?

It has a fatality rate at around 4% and like other sickness will primarily affect old, young, and immunocompromised.  Less than 100,000 cases worldwide so far. 

So why are the markets reacting to it?  I read the article but am a layman when it comes to this stuff. 

I'm not concerned. If I lived in a large population center with alot of air travel in and out I probably would be a bit concerned. 

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I think there is more we don't know. One of my clients mentioned 50,000+ die of the flu every year just in the US so why all the concern over something much less impactful? They are quarantining tens of millions in China. This is effecting consumption (less oil being consumed for example and therefore we have seen the price of oil drop)  and also production. Factories are not running or are at reduced capacity. Hence less iPhones being made, then less to be sold. I think the real issue will be whether we see mandatory quarantines here in big cities in the US. Market hates unknowns and right now, this is a major unknown.

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I am proud to say that I am one of the elder members of this fine board. And have gone through numerous past scares in my life time.  Even had a cousin struck with polio. Who lived well into her 80's, till she passed because of natural causes, not due to polio.   Circumstances, she was afflicted with polio, months before the Vaccines which put an end to polio. Yet, she died of natural causes, late in her life.

What I am saying, is. This is flu season. And we always hear that the flu season typically takes it's toll on the elderly. Yet, the flu season comes and goes, each and every year.

What's to say this virus won't go away in the Spring, as does the annual flu.

Word from me... Don't panic !  We've got the best health system in the world. One that not only got rid of polio, but many other afflictions. 

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9 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

I am proud to say that I am one of the elder members of this fine board. And have gone through numerous past scares in my life time.  Even had a cousin struck with polio. Who lived well into her 80's, till she passed because of natural causes, not due to polio.   Circumstances, she was afflicted with polio, months before the Vaccines which put an end to polio. Yet, she died of natural causes, late in her life.

What I am saying, is. This is flu season. And we always hear that the flu season typically takes it's toll on the elderly. Yet, the flu season comes and goes, each and every year.

What's to say this virus won't go away in the Spring, as does the annual flu.

Word from me... Don't panic !  We've got the best health system in the world. One that not only got rid of polio, but many other afflictions. 

About the flu season and going away in spring. There was a scientific study I read awhile back that found there is a gel layer that surrounds the virus that hardens in the winter and protects the virus from the environment.  But the gel layer converts to liquid phase in warmer weather and isn't tough enough to protect the virus. 

Hopefully the same goes for the coronavirus. 

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45 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I think there is more we don't know. One of my clients mentioned 50,000+ die of the flu every year just in the US so why all the concern over something much less impactful? They are quarantining tens of millions in China. This is effecting consumption (less oil being consumed for example and therefore we have seen the price of oil drop)  and also production. Factories are not running or are at reduced capacity. Hence less iPhones being made, then less to be sold. I think the real issue will be whether we see mandatory quarantines here in big cities in the US. Market hates unknowns and right now, this is a major unknown.

It has definitely affected the markets.  China ain't buying any grain off of us.  Trickle down effect.

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17 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

My 401k is taking a beating right now.....

Will gladly take a little hit (which is actually healthy for a market) given the absolute auto pilot we've been on for a decade minus 1-2 years. 

Regarding Corona. The only Corona that will be talked about in 60 or so days is regarding Cinco de Mayo plans.

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First thought. I have a $3.7 million tooling project just getting started. Even with the 25% tariff our proffered vendor out of Colorado which manages tool builds in China is still the lowest price with superior tool builds. They only went back to work a week ago, which is putting us behind schedule. Since our company is Japanese owned and Japan is starting to get slammed with the virus there are serious concerns about the supply chain. It only takes the lack of one part out of hundreds to shut an assembly line down!

Second my best friend in Russia has a friend in Milan Italy that has several cases of the virus. She sent a picture of the grocery store shelves as everyone is holing up for the long haul.

 

PQMB6274.JPG

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2 hours ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

My 401k is taking a beating right now.....

Hey, unless you need to sell any time soon, any dip is just a discount on anything you purchase.

I've got my checkbook ready, vbg.

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3 hours ago, Drroogh said:

First thought. I have a $3.7 million tooling project just getting started. Even with the 25% tariff our proffered vendor out of Colorado which manages tool builds in China is still the lowest price with superior tool builds. They only went back to work a week ago, which is putting us behind schedule. Since our company is Japanese owned and Japan is starting to get slammed with the virus there are serious concerns about the supply chain. It only takes the lack of one part out of hundreds to shut an assembly line down!

Second my best friend in Russia has a friend in Milan Italy that has several cases of the virus. She sent a picture of the grocery store shelves as everyone is holing up for the long haul.

 

PQMB6274.JPG

Good luck to you!

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Wash your hands as frequently as possible. Also, make sure to wash for no fewer than 15 seconds.  A doctor told me about the 15 second rule years ago.

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Up to 3 in Cook Co IL. Panic setting in as there was a run on a Costco in NY.  We are way ahead of this one. It took 1000 people to die in the US from H1N1 before Obama declared a state of emergency. With only 1 US death, there is no need to panic. I see the media really adding fuel to this.

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25 minutes ago, Reacher said:

Up to 3 in Cook Co IL. Panic setting in as there was a run on a Costco in NY.  We are way ahead of this one. It took 1000 people to die in the US from H1N1 before Obama declared a state of emergency. With only 1 US death, there is no need to panic. I see the media really adding fuel to this.

I thought I heard Washington declared a state of emergency?

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1 minute ago, rico said:

I thought I heard Washington declared a state of emergency?

Correct. They did.

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2 hours ago, rd726 said:

Not concerned at all.  

I am concerned about the economics of it.  A lot of U.S. companies are dependent on China, and to a degree South Korea.

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I took it as concerned about family/me getting it.  THAT is a no.

Concern, as in causing problems, to our economy I would say more so. 

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I dont care if this sounds crazy but..the chinese are heavily invested in US real estate, are investing and buying up tech companies that control social media to spread anti US propaganda, and have a monopoly on pharmaceuticals.  These bastards are a big player in the opioid epidemic and the importation of fentanyl.  This coronavirus scare is manufactured by the Chinese because they are pissed off about tariffs and trade deals.  

We are at war with China. A non traditional war. Its economic and cyber warfare. 

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11 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

I dont care if this sounds crazy but..the chinese are heavily invested in US real estate, are investing and buying up tech companies that control social media to spread anti US propaganda, and have a monopoly on pharmaceuticals.  These bastards are a big player in the opioid epidemic and the importation of fentanyl.  This coronavirus scare is manufactured by the Chinese because they are pissed off about tariffs and trade deals.  

We are at war with China. A non traditional war. Its economic and cyber warfare. 

I can agree about a non traditional war with China. Don't see how the virus is a part. They certainly didn't intend for it to escape there and bring their economy to a standstill hoping that it might make its way to the US after ravaging major parts of China.

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12 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

I dont care if this sounds crazy but..the chinese are heavily invested in US real estate, are investing and buying up tech companies that control social media to spread anti US propaganda, and have a monopoly on pharmaceuticals.  These bastards are a big player in the opioid epidemic and the importation of fentanyl.  This coronavirus scare is manufactured by the Chinese because they are pissed off about tariffs and trade deals.  

We are at war with China. A non traditional war. Its economic and cyber warfare. 

Yes that does sound crazy. Quite the conspiracy theory.

Anyways, not worried.

The fact that it is being politicized is sickening. 

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39 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I can agree about a non traditional war with China. Don't see how the virus is a part. They certainly didn't intend for it to escape there and bring their economy to a standstill hoping that it might make its way to the US after ravaging major parts of China.

Plenty of word going around on the non traditional media sites, that it was man made. With an intent to wage a non traditional war with the United States. I was hearing three months before it became common knowledge from a guy I know who owns three businesses in China. It was not supposed to escape in China.  The plan was to discharge it on the United States.  But China screwed up.

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4 hours ago, milehiiu said:

Plenty of word going around on the non traditional media sites, that it was man made. With an intent to wage a non traditional war with the United States. I was hearing three months before it became common knowledge from a guy I know who owns three businesses in China. It was not supposed to escape in China.  The plan was to discharge it on the United States.  But China screwed up.

I've seen that stuff. I could see where they were researching it with the idea of possibly using against the US. I'm sure we are doing something similar. China screwed up is a major understatement.  Anyways, at this point, while I see it becoming more widespread, agree risk is minimal for people in the US. The effect on the global economy , not so minimal.

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