Coronavirus

[Reacher]

 

9 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I'm not choosing the "pessimistic view," I'm not choosing any view. I posted what is actually happening in Texas, and 85% and growing ICU capacity is not a positive, it's a reflection of the significant spike in COVID cases and hospitalizations (which previously were denied here) since Memorial Day, and the number is reaching dangerous levels. Texas wasn't hit mildly before, it was hit pretty hard, including Houston. It's getting hit hard again, because of an extremely lax approach to basic public safety in the way people went back to work and play after the measures put in place, that were effective, were relaxed.  And fwiw, the charts do not reflect just a bunch of young people getting cases, that's clearly just not the case. 

The reason cities like Houston (the 4th largest city in the country), Dallas and San Antonio are passing these County and city orders/ordinances is to help drive the spread back down while we return to work and play. That's a good thing.

I understand your viewpoint is shaped by the news locally. It is refreshing to see the updates from people across the country to get a broader perspective. Texas has not had a month with new daily cases in excess of 100/million. I'd say TX was not hit "pretty hard" . Pretty hard is NY, NJ, AZ. Yes, big cities get hit harder so Houston is likely worse. Chart above shows roughly half the states have been hit harder than where TX is currently.  You said you failed to see any good news which I took as pessimistic. I wasn't talking about TX, but rather the median age of those diagnosed dropping. With the media bombarding everyone with the negatives, I'm trying to stay on the positive side. It helps that my state is on the other side of the curve. 

[5fouls]

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

This is the USA....there's a plenty of 'low hanging fruit'. I hope you forgive me as coming off equally as crude. 😀

And being older makes one more likely of dying from the virus, not catching it. There's a lot of high risk elderly who haven't been infected. The graph below is from Friday:

 

One more thing on this chart.  I assume it's based on total infections.  If that's the case, then we also need to take total population into context.

The total 20-29 population in the U.S. is approximately 45 million.  The total 80+ population is approximately 12 million.  So, the over 80 population is roughly .2666667 that of the 20-29 population.

If you look at total infections, then 5% is .2777778 that of 18%,

So, in reality, the risk is about the same to each age group, if anything hitting the over 80 age just a little bit more.

Age stats for total population came from the following link if anyone wants to verify my numbers.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/age-and-sex/2019-age-sex-composition.html

[Hoosierhoopster]

26 minutes ago, Reacher said:

 

I understand your viewpoint is shaped by the news locally. It is refreshing to see the updates from people across the country to get a broader perspective. Texas has not had a month with new daily cases in excess of 100/million. I'd say TX was not hit "pretty hard" . Pretty hard is NY, NJ, AZ. Yes, big cities get hit harder so Houston is likely worse. Chart above shows roughly half the states have been hit harder than where TX is currently.  You said you failed to see any good news which I took as pessimistic. I wasn't talking about TX, but rather the median age of those diagnosed dropping. With the media bombarding everyone with the negatives, I'm trying to stay on the positive side. It helps that my state is on the other side of the curve. 

Respectfully, there have been a bunch of posts to downplay the virus. Hospitalization rates, etc., downplayed until the reports reflect those statements were inaccurate, COVID hospitalizations were falling, and I'm a "pessimist" for pointing out what's actually happening here in Texas, where my take was wrong, or for that matter other states where COVID cases have continued to increase, trailing them, with hospitalizations, which, of course, tend to lag behind increases in cases. When I said COVID wasn't gone and would increase when people just ran around and disregarded that it hasn't magically disappeared, I was wrong. OK, I wasn't. But I'm not here to argue, I really don't care. 

So on Texas, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

It is one of the states with 40,000 or more reported cases. Harris County has 18% of the State's cases, and growing, the most in the State, so yeah, I see things locally. There are also over 111,000 cases in Texas alone.  Texas's number is among the highest in the country, along with your state, New York, CA, and a few others. I'm not into quibbling with statistics to fit a point. I'm not sure about the medium age nationally, but as the chart above reflects the reported cases by age groups highest among 21-30, but then at 15% each for 31-40, 41-50 and 51-60. My point all along is pretty straightforward, wear masks, practice social distancing and other measures as we get back to work and socializing, so we can keep the further spread, renewed growth, of the virus in check while we move forward trying to find a vaccine etc. 

[tdhoosier]

29 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I guess that's kind of my point.  Should people in the at risk age groups be participating in risky behavior?  Probably not.  But, should the high school class of 2021 miss out on everything the class of 2020 did (prom, graduation, sports, etc.)?  

I don't know the answer to that,  I guess I'm just trying to get a handle on how long the virus will dominate decision making.  If some cities are ready/willing to re-open, but someplace like Los Angeles still does not allow crowds, what does that mean for to the Lakers, Dodgers, Rams, etc.?

I'm blessed that both my wife and I are able to work from home.  But, I also have 2 kids in high school that I would like to have the full high school experience.  At the same time, I have an elderly mother and elderly in-laws that are most certainly in the age group for the most serious impacts.     

There does not seem to be a 'good' answer as to how we should proceed.  However, there needs to be 'an' answer. 

Protect your most vulnerable.  At the same time, don't freak out if an otherwise healthy 34 year old in Maryland dies of the virus. Healthy 34 year old people can die unexpectedly while out jogging.  And, yes, I realize one of those can be spread person to person and one cannot.  But, are the dangers to certain age groups actually significantly higher than other health related threats?  

I feel like that much of the time we are arguing in circles, debating numbers, debating how bad is bad, etc. Ultimately we always come back to this same conclusion; we need an answer or a clear plan. And you can't have a plan without a goal.

so, first, what's the goal? And then how do we as a country get to that goal? 

 

[tdhoosier]

13 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

One more thing on this chart.  I assume it's based on total infections.  If that's the case, then we also need to take total population into context.

The total 20-29 population in the U.S. is approximately 45 million.  The total 80+ population is approximately 12 million.  So, the over 80 population is roughly .2666667 that of the 20-29 population.

If you look at total infections, then 5% is .2777778 that of 18%,

So, in reality, the risk is about the same to each age group, if anything hitting the over 80 age just a little bit more.

Age stats for total population came from the following link if anyone wants to verify my numbers.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/age-and-sex/2019-age-sex-composition.html

I was actually trying to find a breakdown by age (knowing that 80+ is a smaller demographic), so thanks for doing the math. Even at 18% we still have a lot of vulnerable elderly. Hopefully in these last 4 months we've learned how to protect them better. 

[Reacher]

23 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Respectfully, there have been a bunch of posts to downplay the virus. Hospitalization rates, etc., downplayed until the reports reflect those statements were inaccurate, COVID hospitalizations were falling, and I'm a "pessimist" for pointing out what's actually happening here in Texas, where my take was wrong, or for that matter other states where COVID cases have continued to increase, trailing them, with hospitalizations, which, of course, tend to lag behind increases in cases. When I said COVID wasn't gone and would increase when people just ran around and disregarded that it hasn't magically disappeared, I was wrong. OK, I wasn't. But I'm not here to argue, I really don't care. 

So on Texas, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

It is one of the states with 40,000 or more reported cases. Harris County has 18% of the State's cases, and growing, the most in the State, so yeah, I see things locally. There are also over 111,000 cases in Texas alone.  Texas's number is among the highest in the country, along with your state, New York, CA, and a few others. I'm not into quibbling with statistics to fit a point. I'm not sure about the medium age nationally, but as the chart above reflects the reported cases by age groups highest among 21-30, but then at 15% each for 31-40, 41-50 and 51-60. My point all along is pretty straightforward, wear masks, practice social distancing and other measures as we get back to work and socializing, so we can keep the further spread, renewed growth, of the virus in check while we move forward trying to find a vaccine etc. 

I hope you don't think I have been trying to downplay the virus. I commented that hospitalization rates were down because that is true near me and for the country at large (at the time). I link related info as I come across it. Regardless of the source and whether it is good or bad. I do totally agree with your last sentence.

Lastly, you point out absolute numbers above which can be used to sensationalize (ie- The market is down a 1000 points) rather than a percentage (cases/million, market down 1%) which is more complete.  You kind of are quibbling with the stats to make a point. TX (along with IL, NY, etc) has a lot of cases because it has a lot of population. Saying Chicago led the country in shootings this past weekend with over 100 shot and 14 killed is true and makes the headlines but St Louis has 4x the per capita rate of murder and is therefore a more dangerous place to be. 

[tdhoosier]

18 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I feel like that much of the time we are arguing in circles, debating numbers, debating how bad is bad, etc. Ultimately we always come back to this same conclusion; we need an answer or a clear plan. And you can't have a plan without a goal.

so, first, what's the goal? And then how do we as a country get to that goal? 

 

Sorry, I just have been thinking about this. Can't a task force or whomever declare the overall goal to be (for example): fully reopen the economy safely by November 30th?

and to do this (I'm just spitballing).....

- we need to implement contact tracing by 10/1
- but we can't accurately contact trace until we're down to a level of 20k active cases
-we get down to 20k active cases by having each state decrease their numbers by X%
-the states decrease numbers by X%, by having counties identifying hotspots and containing them
-counties with better numbers get more relaxed guidelines. 
-counties will achieve more successful results by encouraging face masks on a local level. Discourage indoor mass gatherings, etc. etc, 

Again, I'm just spitballing, but there should be a series of broken down benchmarks to achieve by specific dates. And a "carrot on the stick approach" wouldn't hurt either. The ultimate carrot being reopening the economy (which is what everybody wants), but you could also have a series of smaller carrots along the way like: reach X number and we can open up restaurants at 50% capacity. Reach x number and we can begin team sports. 

The message needs to be that everybody is part of the solution and that we're all in this together. Everybody loves to claim patriotism by pointing to insignificant actions like wearing flag printed board shorts on July 4th, but isn't something of this magnitude the ultimate test of patriotism? When the result of your responsible actions positively impacts the lives of your neighbors health, sanity, ability to have fun, etc.? I don't know, call me naive, but this is better than doing nothing or hunkering down until a vaccine is created. 

just venting once again. haha. 

[Billingsley99]

IU soccer star Ken Snow dead at 50 from Coronavirus 

[jv1972iu]

23 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Sorry, I just have been thinking about this. Can't a task force or whomever declare the overall goal to be (for example): fully reopen the economy safely by November 30th?

and to do this (I'm just spitballing).....

- we need to implement contact tracing by 10/1
- but we can't accurately contact trace until we're down to a level of 20k active cases
-we get down to 20k active cases by having each state decrease their numbers by X%
-the states decrease numbers by X%, by having counties identifying hotspots and containing them
-counties with better numbers get more relaxed guidelines. 
-counties will achieve more successful results by encouraging face masks on a local level. Discourage indoor mass gatherings, etc. etc, 

Again, I'm just spitballing, but there should be a series of broken down benchmarks to achieve by specific dates. And a "carrot on the stick approach" wouldn't hurt either. The ultimate carrot being reopening the economy (which is what everybody wants), but you could also have a series of smaller carrots along the way like: reach X number and we can open up restaurants at 50% capacity. Reach x number and we can begin team sports. 

The message needs to be that everybody is part of the solution and that we're all in this together. Everybody loves to claim patriotism by pointing to insignificant actions like wearing flag printed board shorts on July 4th, but isn't something of this magnitude the ultimate test of patriotism? When the result of your responsible actions positively impacts the lives of your neighbors health, sanity, ability to have fun, etc.? I don't know, call me naive, but this is better than doing nothing or hunkering down until a vaccine is created. 

just venting once again. haha. 

Unfortunately, this subject is so political now that it seems beyond the "we're all in this together" solution plan point.  Just my humble opinion.

[Hoosierhoopster]

53 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I hope you don't think I have been trying to downplay the virus. I commented that hospitalization rates were down because that is true near me and for the country at large (at the time). I link related info as I come across it. Regardless of the source and whether it is good or bad. I do totally agree with your last sentence.

Lastly, you point out absolute numbers above which can be used to sensationalize (ie- The market is down a 1000 points) rather than a percentage (cases/million, market down 1%) which is more complete.  You kind of are quibbling with the stats to make a point. TX (along with IL, NY, etc) has a lot of cases because it has a lot of population. Saying Chicago led the country in shootings this past weekend with over 100 shot and 14 killed is true and makes the headlines but St Louis has 4x the per capita rate of murder and is therefore a more dangerous place to be. 

I don't disagree with you (how's that for a double negative) regarding per capita stuff generally. However, I really am not quibbling at all. Really, it's the other way around (not you specifically). Stats like per capita are used to say things aren't so bad here as opposed to there. OK sure on a purely stat basis relating to per capita analysis, but that disregards that, regardless, Texas is one of the states with the highest number of COVID cases -- and, while the State itself is very, very large, most of those cases are concentrated in the big cities -- Houston, etc. -- so looking at per capita stuff itself is misleading. Where the people are, the virus is. Texas is huge, you can throw several states inside its borders, and it's population is spread out. But cities like Houston have been hit hard, that's not a stat point, it's just a point.

[Reacher]

[tdhoosier]

1 minute ago, jv1972iu said:

Unfortunately, this subject is so political now that it seems beyond the "we're all in this together" solution plan point.  Just my humble opinion.

Completely understand, but I also view it as a gigantic political opportunity. A legacy defining opportunity, in fact. 

[jv1972iu]

28 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Completely understand, but I also view it as a gigantic political opportunity. A legacy defining opportunity, in fact. 

No doubt.  

[5fouls]

45 minutes ago, Reacher said:

If, and it's a big if, but if the downward trend continues over the next 2-3 weeks despite the recent large spike in cases, I will take that as a good sign.  

[D-BONE]

17 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

Sorry, I just have been thinking about this. Can't a task force or whomever declare the overall goal to be (for example): fully reopen the economy safely by November 30th?

and to do this (I'm just spitballing).....

- we need to implement contact tracing by 10/1
- but we can't accurately contact trace until we're down to a level of 20k active cases
-we get down to 20k active cases by having each state decrease their numbers by X%
-the states decrease numbers by X%, by having counties identifying hotspots and containing them
-counties with better numbers get more relaxed guidelines. 
-counties will achieve more successful results by encouraging face masks on a local level. Discourage indoor mass gatherings, etc. etc, 

Again, I'm just spitballing, but there should be a series of broken down benchmarks to achieve by specific dates. And a "carrot on the stick approach" wouldn't hurt either. The ultimate carrot being reopening the economy (which is what everybody wants), but you could also have a series of smaller carrots along the way like: reach X number and we can open up restaurants at 50% capacity. Reach x number and we can begin team sports. 

The message needs to be that everybody is part of the solution and that we're all in this together. Everybody loves to claim patriotism by pointing to insignificant actions like wearing flag printed board shorts on July 4th, but isn't something of this magnitude the ultimate test of patriotism? When the result of your responsible actions positively impacts the lives of your neighbors health, sanity, ability to have fun, etc.? I don't know, call me naive, but this is better than doing nothing or hunkering down until a vaccine is created. 

just venting once again. haha. 

Didn't the original task force do that to a greater extent and then the pressure to re-open quickly turned into ignoring the guidelines?

At this point, I'd settle for people just committing to wearing masks in indoor, high-traffic public spaces (grocery, places of business, etc.). I get that it's a pain in the ass, but I'd err on the side of caution if it saves one life. Yet as we've moved away from the initial stay at home period, I see less and less people willing to do it.

Edited June 23, 2020 by D-BONE

[tdhoosier]

9 minutes ago, D-BONE said:

Didn't the original task force do that to a greater extent and then the pressure to re-open quickly turned into ignoring the guidelines?

At this point, I'd settle for people just committing to wearing masks in indoor, high-traffic public spaces (grocery, places of business, etc.). I get that it's a pain in the ass, but I'd err on the side of caution if it saves one life. Yet as we've moved away from the initial stay at home period, I see less and less people willing to do it.

True...the goal was to flatten the curve and that did happen. There was no ‘next step’ though. 

[tdhoosier]

The map below shows increases and decreases in cases. One thing somebody speculated on a podcast that i haven’t thought of is that cases are rising in the south because the heat of summer is bringing people back into the air condition where the virus seems to thrive. Who’s going to dine outside in Phoenix right now? It’s much easier to social distance when the weather is mild. 

[Reacher]

Road construction doesn't look to be as bad this summer as 700+ cities are canceling/ postponing projects according to a Washington Post article (Not linked- requires subscription)

 

[5fouls]

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

The map below shows increases and decreases in cases. One thing somebody speculated on a podcast that i haven’t thought of is that cases are rising in the south because the heat of summer is bringing people back into the air condition where the virus seems to thrive. Who’s going to dine outside in Phoenix right now? It’s much easier to social distance when the weather is mild. 

OK.  So Area 51 in Nevada is showing a spike, while Roswell, New Mexico looks to be clear.

So, we should trust the aliens, not our government. 

[5fouls]

@Hoosierhoopster  Not a good outlook for Houston.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-will-hit-this-city-doctor-warns/ar-BB15RQEK?ocid=msedgntp

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

@Hoosierhoopster  Not a good outlook for Houston.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-worst-coronavirus-outbreak-will-hit-this-city-doctor-warns/ar-BB15RQEK?ocid=msedgntp

Lol what I've been saying Fouls, it's bad here.

[IU Scott]

Had a stress test and a echo test today.  Got the results and the echo was god but the stress test shows a place on my heart that shows that I might have had a heart attach in the past.

[rico]

6 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Lol what I've been saying Fouls, it's bad here.

Grocery stores stocked?

[Hoosierhoopster]

Just now, rico said:

Grocery stores stocked?

Yes that phase has passed.

My money maker shirt idea: "I Survived the Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020". -- That would sell!

[rico]

19 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes that phase has passed.

My money maker shirt idea: "I Survived the Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020". -- That would sell!

With those words around a pine tree?