Potential replacement coaches

[DC2345]

3 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

It's just hard for me to see any reason why a coach that we'd want wouldn't be interested now but would be interested a year from now.

There isn't a reason. If anything the program will be in a worse spot and more coaches might be less interested.

[5fouls]

Just now, DC2345 said:

Maybe Cal will get fired so IU can pass on him a third time. 

I seriously could not be an IU fan if Cal ever became coach of the Hoosiers.  If he got fired after one game, I would become a fan again.  But, for that one game, I would be rooting for the other team.

[BobSaccamanno]

1 minute ago, DC2345 said:

There isn't a reason. If anything the program will be in a worse spot and more coaches might be less interested.

There are scenarios where a coach might want one more shot with a particular team and isn’t looking to move from this particular team but he might look the next year.  Or there could be a buyout that comes down dramatically.   There are more advanced scenarios that Dolson needs to be aware of.  If he’s talking to coaches and agents, he will know the landscape.  Dolson is a people person and seems to be the type to know the landscape.  

To give an extreme example, Bob Knight just finished 1975 and knows what’s coming in 1976.  He ain’t leaving in 1976 but he might listen in 1977.  

[IUCrazy2]

37 minutes ago, RoadToZion said:

Sorry for being realistic. Everyone is pissed off at Archie, thats obvious. But there isn't a good enough replacement to get rid of him and start from scratch again.

Either a home run hire, or bust.

And theres only about 3 names on that list. None of which are currently available.

Not sure who you believe the home run hires are, but who do you see coming available next year that we cannot get this year?

My main issue is what happens if he does not do enough to keep his job next year.  I think we find ourselves hurting fod both the 2022 and 2023 classes at that point.  Then we are back to this, we need 4 or 5 years nonsense.  With the transfer rules, if the home run hires are never going to be available, then this is the year to do this.

[BobSaccamanno]

24 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

I don't think any recruits are going to be fooled by a sham extension.  Guys like Painter, Izzo, Mack, Cal, etc would use that against him all day long.  It's either a real extension or recruiting is dead.

I do not disagree.  When I was 18, I’d have no knowledge of buyouts and offsets, etc   But kids today are more savvy because they have access to infinitely more information.  

But I wanted to throw out that scenario as a caution so that people don’t go berserk if it happens.  It might be rational if they bring him back.  There may still be some traction there with recruits.  

[Zuckerkorn]

1 minute ago, BobSaccamanno said:

There are scenarios where a coach might want one more shot with a particular team and isn’t looking to move from this particular team but he might look the next year.  Or there could be a buyout that comes down dramatically.   There are more advanced scenarios that Dolson needs to be aware of.  If he’s talking to coaches and agents, he will know the landscape.  Dolson is a people person and seems to be the type to know the landscape.  

To give an extreme example, Bob Knight just finished 1975 and knows what’s coming in 1976.  He ain’t leaving in 1976 but he might listen in 1977.  

The key with this is that we have little insight into how this is playing out or what Dolson's "end game" is.

We all want this to be done right with the best chance for success.  I do have a bit of unease with the idea of waiting in hopes of things improving (prospective coaches) in the future - so many things can go wrong (that coach has a terrible season, has a great season and opts to stay, another opening pops up a they land him, etc.)

[cybergates]

12 minutes ago, rico said:

If you throw '75 and '76 out, how many times has IU won 10 games in a row since 1970?  1980?  1990?  2000?  2010?

To do it at the most needed time would be a feat for the ages.  Similar to what NC State did in '83 and 'Nova in '85.

Don't have time to figure out the # of times, but the last time was Tom Crean's 2016 Hoosiers who after losing to Duke, won 11 in a row to get to 17-3 and 7-0 in the B1G. 

This team winning 10 games in a row (when they've only won 12 all season) would be a feat for the ages indeed.

[Inequality]

You don’t bring him back if your done with him. He has proven thus far to be the worst IU coach I’ve seen in my lifetime spent in Bloomington. You go get your man and move on. If you need to wait 2 months then you go interim.

[dbmhoosier]

I'll just say for Scott Dolson's sake if Archie gets a 5th year either one of two things needs to happen.  We'd better have a home run season next year or we have a bad one and AM gets fired and we make a big hire.  What can't happen is we fire him after year 5 and then hire someone like Fife or Alford.  That would be a disaster. 

[IUCrazy2]

I will say this, if he is back next year, my likelihood of checking out even more then I already am, goes through the roof.  I watched 5 or 6 games live this year.  I watched another 4 or 5 on the DVR.

They bring him back, the program will have to win me back at that point.

[BobSaccamanno]

Since we are talking scenarios, try this one on.  

IU hires Chris Mack by April 1.

After the 2022 season, Kansas is backsliding.  Self has become toxic.  They move on.  Their top target is Matt Painter and they make him an offer he cannot refuse.  

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics don’t get out of the East this year or in 2022.   Tatum is becoming increasingly high maintenance.  Brad is worn down dealing with the NBA personalities and travel, and agrees with Wyc that they all need a re-set.

Mitch Daniels immediately gets Tracy on the phone and agrees to her terms personally.  He gets the best coach he can AND he sticks a finger in the eye of IU.  

[IUProfessor]

2 minutes ago, BobSaccamanno said:

Since we are talking scenarios, try this one on.  

IU hires Chris Mack by April 1.

After the 2022 season, Kansas is backsliding.  Self has become toxic.  They move on.  Their top target is Matt Painter and they make him an offer he cannot refuse.  

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics don’t get out of the East this year or in 2022.   Tatum is becoming increasingly high maintenance.  Brad is worn down dealing with the NBA personalities and travel, and agrees with Wyc that they all need a re-set.

Mitch Daniels immediately gets Tracy on the phone and agrees to her terms personally.  He gets the best coach he can AND he sticks a finger in the eye of IU.  

I'd say that that scenario may actually be one of the few that is less realistic than Dolson introducing Coach K as the next coach of the Indiana Hoosiers in a couple weeks.

[BobSaccamanno]

4 minutes ago, IUProfessor said:

I'd say that that scenario may actually be one of the few that is less realistic than Dolson introducing Coach K as the next coach of the Indiana Hoosiers in a couple weeks.

It’s rhetorical.  

[5fouls]

3 minutes ago, IUProfessor said:

I'd say that that scenario may actually be one of the few that is less realistic than Dolson introducing Coach K as the next coach of the Indiana Hoosiers in a couple weeks.

Yes, Coach K to IU.  And, he's going to add Brad Stevens as an assistant coach to take over when he retires.  

[Inequality]

2 minutes ago, IUProfessor said:

I'd say that that scenario may actually be one of the few that is less realistic than Dolson introducing Coach K as the next coach of the Indiana Hoosiers in a couple weeks.

I don’t know man. That’s no so far out there considering how far the IU program has already fallen. We hit Rutgers status last year and gained speed. This year they might actually get 3 wins vs IU. If you let that sink in you will need some Advil.

[madmax]

21 minutes ago, dbmhoosier said:

I'll just say for Scott Dolson's sake if Archie gets a 5th year either one of two things needs to happen.  We'd better have a home run season next year or we have a bad one and AM gets fired and we make a big hire.  What can't happen is we fire him after year 5 and then hire someone like Fife or Alford.  That would be a disaster. 

I’d argue that this actually is the most likely scenario. The difficult spot that Dolson could face is this:

If he comes back next year and has a good but not great year do you actually still fire him? Like, say we finish top 5 in the B1G next year and win a game or two in the tournament, are you really gonna fire him after that? I would that guess he would not.

The Big Ten is going to lose a ton of talent this off season, and we could actually be one of the better teams if our core guys stay.

[Inequality]

3 minutes ago, madmax said:

I’d argue that this actually is the most likely scenario. The difficult spot that Dolson could face is this:

If he comes back next year and has a good but not great year do you actually still fire him? Like, say we finish top 5 in the B1G next year and win a game or two in the tournament, are you really gonna fire him after that? I would that guess he would not.

The Big Ten is going to lose a ton of talent this off season, and we could actually be one of the better teams if our core guys stay.

Sad though isn’t it? That the other team has to have a hand tied behind their back to step above them for a moment

[IUCrazy2]

Just now, madmax said:

I’d argue that this actually is the most likely scenario. The difficult spot that Dolson could face is this:

If he comes back next year and has a good but not great year do you actually still fire him? Like, say we finish top 5 in the B1G next year and win a game or two in the tournament, are you really gonna fire him after that? I would that guess he would not.

The Big Ten is going to lose a ton of talent this off season, and we could actually be one of the better teams if our core guys stay.

So the Tom Crean scenario, which I am saying is the most likely scenario and is an unmitigated disaster.  Finishes 5-7 in the BIG.  Wins about 21 or 22 games.  Gets into the tournament as a 6 seed.  Wins one game and is out.  Then what?  And oh yeah, still the same offensive and defensive issues, we just win more because the BIG as a whole takes a step back.

So then what?  People are still pissed.  There is a segment of the fanbase that is gone unless he wins a title (put me in that group at this point, I want him gone by Monday).  They are not going away and they pop their head up every year the minute things go even a centimeter off the rails.  It would take multiple years of Elite 8's and Sweet 16's and no tournament misses to slowly start to silence that crowd.  And I frankly do kot think this guy has that in him.  So we stumble into tournament.  TJD leaves, recruiting has been slowing because everyone knows he is hanging on by a thread.  Then we get to 9 years of his tenure.  Made it to the tournament 3 of those 9 years.  Recruiting is off a cliff and we are looking to replace him again.  Wasted another 5 years.  Then we hire another guy and the program is so in the toilet well "we just cannot judge him until he has 4 or 5 years".  I am 52 at that point and IU has made the tournament maybe 14 times since I graduated IU 30 years ago.  And the program is officially dead.

Hope it would be worth saving $7 million at that point.

[IUrocker]

With all this thread has been through, Archie coming back for a 5th year just sounds so boring, ha. I guess I just don’t see how transfers are gonna help him too much from becoming a stellar team and be so much more successful. If he couldn’t get the players he already picked to produce, then how will he get transfers he picks to produce? I can see it both ways to where 1. We actually don’t have as good of players as we think and we need some new faces, but 2. We actually do have a solid roster and a different coach would be able to get them to produce at a higher level. They say Archie’s defense takes a couple/few years to get into place and be solid, so what if he gets a bunch of new faces. How are they gonna be successful next year in his system their first go around? Our defense has actually gotten worse here lately and the players should know exactly how to make it work and they aren’t. There definitely seems to be a disconnect between Archie and the team and he doesn’t act like a coach how knows how to figure things out. People think we will lose a handful of the players we like on the team if Archie is gone, but I honestly don’t think so. I think they’d be more than willing to stay and play for a new coach. They genuinely seem to enjoy IU.

I guess I just feel worried about seeing a repeat of this year next if he returns, and even if he happens to finish top 5 in the conference once the other teams have a down year, does Archie get extended for doing better? And then what happens when the other teams reload...Archie back to finishing 10th in the league again? I want to be elite because our coach is legit and knows how to get everything out of his players...not because the rest of the conference happened to give Archie a favor by having a down year. 

[dbmhoosier]

15 minutes ago, madmax said:

I’d argue that this actually is the most likely scenario. The difficult spot that Dolson could face is this:

If he comes back next year and has a good but not great year do you actually still fire him? Like, say we finish top 5 in the B1G next year and win a game or two in the tournament, are you really gonna fire him after that? I would that guess he would not.

The Big Ten is going to lose a ton of talent this off season, and we could actually be one of the better teams if our core guys stay.

I don't think we have to worry about that.  Trayce isn't coming back to play Archie ball for one more season. 

[OGIUAndy]

45 minutes ago, BobSaccamanno said:

Since we are talking scenarios, try this one on.  

IU hires Chris Mack by April 1.

After the 2022 season, Kansas is backsliding.  Self has become toxic.  They move on.  Their top target is Matt Painter and they make him an offer he cannot refuse.  

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics don’t get out of the East this year or in 2022.   Tatum is becoming increasingly high maintenance.  Brad is worn down dealing with the NBA personalities and travel, and agrees with Wyc that they all need a re-set.

Mitch Daniels immediately gets Tracy on the phone and agrees to her terms personally.  He gets the best coach he can AND he sticks a finger in the eye of IU.  

And then PU wins the National Championship, IU disbands their basketball program, and everyone becomes PU fans because their God and Savior has taken his rightful place in West Lafayette, where he wanted to be all along. 

[KoB2011]

I will say, if Archie is brought back, which I happen to be in favor of if there isn't a clear upgrade, I'm not going to be the least bit shocked if he rights the ship and is here for a long time. 

I think it'll take a few years to win back some of you, but Archie is a good coach at to @IUFLA's point, he has had a lot of bad breaks in his tenure here. 

[Bustout]

18 minutes ago, OGIUAndy said:

And then PU wins the National Championship, IU disbands their basketball program, and everyone becomes PU fans because their God and Savior has taken his rightful place in West Lafayette, where he wanted to be all along. 

Speculation that Painter would be interested in Arizona job

[IUCrazy2]

3 minutes ago, Bustout said:

Speculation that Painter would be interested in Arizona job

Somebody wants another raise....

[tdhoosier]

Many good points above....they've pushed me into the 'CAM has to be fired now' camp:

- You may say that a coach who will be available this year will be available next year. To this I say, then get them to commit this year because waiting a year (losing out on recruits) will make their job that much harder if we wait. 

- There's a possibility CAM will have moderate success next year, which will put Dolson in an even tougher position. IMO, moderate success (i.e. a 7 seed) doesn't solidify that CAM is the right man for the job. It most likely creates a scenario where we kick the can down the road, aka another few years of coaching purgatory.

- I don't buy that there isn't an upgrade out there. Will it be a 'home run' hire? I guess that depends on who you're asking. Drew, Mussleman, Beard, Oates, Mack, etc. are upgrades, IMO. Maybe a few of those guys say no, but I don't agree we can't at least get one of them THIS OFF-SEASON.

If you HONESTLY don't think we can get one of those guy then all I have to say is I sure hope Dolson doesn't share your confidence. This program has a wang; let's start throwing it around. Recent success is one thing, but we are endowed where it matters. Stop the 'why would Drew want to leave Baylor for Indiana?' crybaby BS. Are you kidding me? If coaches are afraid of the pressure Indiana brings then screw em. Get a guy with balls. (sorry for all the genitalia references). Let's start acting like we are one of the most important programs in CBB because we are!

Per Forbes:

College Basketball’s Most Valuable Teams

Rank	Team	Conference	3-Year Average Revenue (Million)	3-Year Average Profit (Million)	Rank Last Year
1	Kentucky	SEC	$56.0	$31.2	2
2	Louisville	ACC	$53.6	$29.2	1
3	Indiana	Big Ten	$37.5	$17.1	3
4	Duke	ACC	$35.4	$14.6	4
5	Kansas	Big 12	$34.1	$18.7	5
6	Syracuse	ACC	$31.9	$17.6	7
7	Ohio State	Big Ten	$30.1	$9.6	6
8	North Carolina	ACC	$29.9	$17.5	11
9	Michigan State	Big Ten	$28.5	$9.3	12
10	Illinois	Big Ten	$27.6	$12.9	9
11	UCLA	Pac-12	$26.3	$16.4	N/A
12	Wisconsin	Big Ten	$25.3	$14.5	10
13	Arkansas	SEC	$24.7	$13.9	14
14	Michigan	Big Ten	$24.1	$11.3	15
15	Arizona	Pac-12	$23.9	$13.0	8
16	Maryland	Big Ten	$22.5	$10.4	13
17	Marquette	Big East	$20.3	$7.3	19
18	Minnesota	Big Ten	$19.7	$9.8	N/A
19	Alabama	SEC	$19.3	$4.9	20
20	Texas	Big 12	$18.7	$1.0	16