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02Hoosier

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Posts posted by 02Hoosier

  1. 59 minutes ago, Maedhros said:

    My problem with the NET is its not being used in a manner consistent with the way it was designed.

    It's clear from this season that NET ratings are weighted heavily toward efficiency metrics. Those measures, like KenPom and Torvik, are predictive. They tell you what you should expect from teams going forward, even project spreads in a matchup between any two teams. What those measures don't tell you is what a team has accomplished over a season.

    NCAA Tournament selection is supposed to be about your resume. Who did you play. Who did you beat. Who beat you. Yes, we need a way to sort teams, a way to identify which games are quality wins and which are bad losses. That's a fine use for efficiency metrics. But efficiency doesn't care if you won or lost. As long as it's going to depend so heavily on efficiency metrics, a team's own NET ranking shouldn't be used a proxy for the worthiness of their resume.

    I'm as much an advocate for analytics as anyone, but wins and losses have to matter. Six wins in a row over lousy teams still wins you a National Championship. And the thing is, we have statistics that measure resumes. We could use Wins Above Bubble or Strength of Record. By WAB, Indiana started the day at 53 and Michigan St at 52. Those numbers make a lot more sense, based on actual outcomes, than the two teams being ranked 70 spots apart.

    I have no problem saying that on a neutral floor, Michigan St would be the favored team. That's a categorically different thing, though, than saying MSU is more deserving of an NCAA Tournament bid.

    Excellent post sir. It doesn’t upset me that IU isn’t really on the bubble radar for most people and I honestly don’t think MSU should be either but that’s another story.

    What’s frustrating is that IU and MSU have similar records and nearly identical schedules since they play in the same conference, but one is considered a lock due to their NET rating and the other isn’t even mentioned. Like you said, results have to matter. I understand the efficiency metrics and that IU hasn’t beat anyone convincingly, but somehow we’re actually winning games and have a decent record and resume. 

    These two teams are much closer to each other than the NET suggests.

    • Like 2
  2. 3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

    Is he the little guard?  :coffee:

    I was about to say… hopefully Woodson has figured out who the “little guard” is by this point. It’s not like he’s second team all big ten or anything 

  3. 8 minutes ago, Reacher said:

    I wonder how much of a crowd we will have there? With a drop in enthusiasm and being up in Minnesota, I don't think we'll have as many fans as normal. At least we should have more than Penn State! 

    What genius selected Minneapolis as the tournament city? I see no reason why it should ever be anywhere besides Indy or Chicago 

    • Like 3
  4. 5 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said:

    Payne may not know how to coach on the floor but he’s been credited with many top recruits at Kentucky.  Probably a decent chance he ends up here as we shakeup the staff.   Or you put him in charge of player personnel and hire assistants who can scheme and develop talent.  

    Honestly we might as well try something. We apparently have as much money as ever to spend so maybe he can do what he does best and be a bag man for us. 

    • Like 2
  5. 27 minutes ago, btownqb said:

    You forgot the powerhouse Minnesota team we beat. 

    Yeah I was gonna mention them but just wanted to emphasize our narrow margins against the other teams. I mean give credit to the team for winning the games but it’s not like they’re blowing anyone out or playing tough competition.

  6. 6 minutes ago, Jeff said:

    I don’t think I personally know an IU fan that is happy with Woodson as coach, but I guess there’s still plenty that are fine with him. 

    Winning cures a lot. I think the winning streak has tempered the outrage a little bit. As soon as the going gets tough though next season, the displeasure will be heard loud and clear

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