ADegenerate

On 10/17/2018 at 12:57 AM, ADegenerate said:

My bad. Didn't convey that very well. So if you take a look at Vic's career progression his shooting / 3pt shooting has progressed steadily every year. He obviously took a major jump last season and scored 1.3 points per shot and took 17.9 shots per game which banked him 23.1ppg. That was the key part I left out and where the 15-15.5 shots per game came from. My mistake. We're probably a year or two away from his prime, so for him not to break 22 points per game he would have to take fewer shots than last season and/or regress in efficiency. He should still have a level or two to jump so if he's at 22 something definitely went wrong. I don't think there's a chance in hell of that happening. It's more probable that he approaches 20 shots and maintains his %'s and maybe slightly lowers them rather than the team taking shots away from him.

 

I think he can max out around 50%, 40%, and 85% (47, 37, and 80 last season) on about 15/16 shots  but I don't think he'll do that because he's young, it's his team, and he has a point to prove so I'm expecting closer to 20 shots.

 

I think 24 is the 'real' O/U.

@IU Scott

8.5-17.9 / 23.1 / .477% / .371% / .799% 

9.2-19.5 / 24.1 / .470% / .356% / .698%

That's why analytics are so important. I'm a complete amateur and saw exactly where this was headed. When you know how things are supposed to play out you can adjust the things that you want to adjust to achieve even more desirable outcomes.

I stand by my opinion that it's a mistake to take shots away from Vic. I think you keep nurturing this flame and see how far he can go. This squad isn't good enough to win a title this year but who knows how Sabonis / Turner develop and then possibly we could trade or lure in a FA to really threaten for the title. 

9 hours ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

You need to take a look at the players around Myles' salary if you think the deal was an overpay.

I forgot that the cap has been constantly jumping up the past few years. You’re right. 

56 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

To me the Pacers needs to get one more star player in their starting lineup to get to the next level.  I would love to be able to get Kawhi to the Pacers but we all know that will never happen and to me Jimmy Butler is to much of a head case.  Going forward if we have 1B  to VO 1A and Sabonis as our 3rd best player we would be a legitimate contender.  To me it was a big mistake to sign Turner to such a huge deal because he is not a great player and it will be hard to trade his contract.

Mostly agree with you on Turner. He’s got a lot of value on defense. I don’t know if we’re tying to make him a serious threat on offense or if he just thinks he is but I don’t like his game on O at all. I like that he can pick and pop and occasiinaly hit a three but running specific plays for him I don’t really like. 

It’s a shame that we will probably never be able to attract a super star and we have to overpay to keep what we have so in that regard I get the turner deal. I don’t think I’d sanction it but I get the reason why they did.

We have to draft well and that TJ Leaf pick was a huge blunder.

3 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

When Vic takes all the shots they lose. When they balance the scoring and Vic takes a reasonable number of shots they win. That's basically been the trend, built on a number of Pacers who can score the ball. 

This has nothing to do with pace, it's about balance:

Grizz -- W, Vic 11 shots

Bucks - L, Vic 23 shots

Nets - W, Vic 20 shots

Wolves - L, Vic 23 shots

Spurs - W, Vic 11 shots

Cavs - W, Vic 15 shots

Portland - L, Vic 24 shots

Knicks - W, Vic 18 shots

Bulls - W, Vic 19 shots (write up title, Vic leads "balanced Pacers" past Bulls)

Celtics - W, Vic 18 shots

Rockets - L, Vic 21 shots

Sixers - L, Vic 30 shots (seriously?) -- and Collison 3 shots, Turner 8, Young 8, Bog 11. That's imbalance, and they were stomped, the late run notwithstanding.

 

 

 

I’m all about proof backing up my claims so I appreciate what you’ve shown me and it’s something I’ll think about and keep an eye on. I might get back to you later with a rebuttal but good post and I’m open minded on the issue.

Just now, Hoosierhoopster said:

Too many shots by Vic, not enough balance, and they lose, again. This is not the formula for future Pacers success 

Couldn’t disagree more with ya here. This squad is dead last in pace and that’s a terrible sign in this new league with the freedom of movement rules. when bogey is your second scoring option in a league where you need 110 a night....not looking good...

The squad isn’t built well for where the league is going. McDermott isn’t even a decent JJ reddick. Gonna be a long year I think.

24 at the half for Vic. Very in form right now. Slow first few games but it likes he’s making other jump this szn

ANOTHER slow start. DC needs to get it together.

Small sample or is McDermott just a goofy aloof dude? I've noticed him foul three point shooters countless times, standing out out of bounds when the ball is passed to him type stuff. 

Infuriating stuff.

6 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Even though Pacers are leading again it is confusing why we start so slow. Did last year as well. Oh well. I like what I'm seeing.

I've got a crazy energy theory lol. I feel like we conserve energy and just trust our second unit. Noticed how Vic always starts slow and seems to go off in the 4th? Leads the league in crunch time. 

Another slow start......grrr. 

Breakout game by Tyreke tonight. Perfect outcome. 

4 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Funny that Boston hit 19 3's and still lost.  I like seeing good shooters but to me it is not  basketball I really enjoy when an NBA team shots around 50 3's.

Scott basketball evolves man. 

Mods slap the basketball historian title on him. 

Fun game. We didn’t play well at all but I’ll take it.

Haha! **** it @BGleas

🙂

Big win. Shout out  to Turner. He played incredible. Loved the DC ice in the veins cele. 

TJ Leaf stinks.

-9.1 PER!!!!

Another slow start.

😡

2 hours ago, IU Scott said:

Was not a fan of extending his contract because I want to keep Sabonis long term over Turner.  They don't seem to be able to play together so to me they have to choose one or the other and that should be Sabonis.  To me Turner is not a tough enough player around the basket and can't rebound well enough because he can't hold his position.  If it was me in charge I would have tried to trade him this off season but maybe they can do it next off season.

 

Something just does not seem right with the Pacers and something is missing.  The last few games they are not moving the ball like they did earlier and VO is trying to do to much at times which is hurting the team.  Luckily last night VO picked it up in the 4th to seal the win against a bad Knicks team.

I wasn't thrilled about the extension either, but I think it had to be done unfortunately. We aren't exactly a hot spot for serious free agents so I think we have to lock down and make due with what we have. If it costs us with Sabonis in the long term then I'll be properly pissed because he's a monster.

I agree with you about something being off. I posted as such. I'm thinking it's just a slow start and trying to slightly alter our approach (vaugue but that's kind of the vibe I get). Vic seems to be looking to bring people in a little too much which is fine early season.

I'm ready to abandon that 3 seed shout. I think Mil has that locked down. We might end up the 5 and bounced by philly first round

BANG

1 minute ago, FKIM01 said:

Jeez...the non-foul on Vic is just nuts.

Entertainment league. It is what it is. Bogus foul on Sabonis and nonfoul on Vic. Silly but what are we gonna do.

30 in 21 for sabonis. Bogus 6th.

^^ 26 on 11-11. meh 

Somethings off with this team. I don't know.

Sabonis going off so far. Completely abusing Kanter. 13 in the first in about 5 minutes. Goodness.

11 minutes ago, Indykev said:

I think you are annoyed because Myles is a 4 playing the 5. He isnt and will never be a banger. I find if you blame the Pacers for playing his out of position you like him more. 🙂

I think that’s a good assemement of where I’m at. I just need to relax with it and be more open minded. If his usage rate really sky rockets I might have an aneurism though lol

Anyone else get really annoyed with Myles Turner or am I out of line? I hate how his game is long two's and I think we're much better with Sabonis on the court. yeah, I know it's an edge having both and especially with Sabonis rolling with the second unit but still...

I don't know. I just feel like there's room for discussion here.