tdhoosier

43 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Unfortunately this virus is likely going to be endemic in the population and be seasonal like the flu, even with a vaccine.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-could-circulate-forever-says-experts

That article is from March 2nd. And I thought that more recently scientists are learning that one you’ve had it, you are immune...like the chicken pox. 

23 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

4,000 respirators are sitting in a warehouse in NYC. Gov. Cuomo, when asked about it, responded by saying they weren't needed yet!

Go figure.....

I haven’t seen that and can’t find news about that? Link?

24 minutes ago, rico said:

CBS just reported that 10% of the deaths in Italy are health care workers.

It’s infuriating that these heroes in out country still can’t get the protective gear they need. Yesterday one of my friends who’s a nurse said that she came to the realization that when all is said and done she thinks a few of her colleagues will die. 

1 minute ago, Seeking6 said:

I absolutely believe The Wire should be taught at high school or colleges across the country as a course. Teaching kids how things work early on (all levels of the show) can only benefit our cities and country later on. Can't tell you how many times when I read a press release or here about a crime that is being covered....or school problems (class size, safety, curriculum) I always go back to The Wire.

EXACTLY. It’s been about 10 years since I watched the show and still say that! 

39 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I don't watch much TV beyond sports and news, and 50% of my enjoyment of TV has been pared, so started looking for new things to watch...

My wife heard on Today, or GMA, or one of those goofy shows she watches about a Netflix show called "Tiger King" which is about people who own big cats or run roadside zoos featuring them, so we gave it a go...

I'll say this, if they ever fire up freak shows at the circus again, there must be an audience for them...These people were beyond belief...

So, still looking...

Wow.  I watched the first episode of the “Tiger King” and while I was astonished by all the awesomeness going on, I’m not sure my head can handle that degree of overstimulation right now. Haha

On 3/27/2020 at 2:15 AM, ThePaulieWalnuts said:

All on HBO.
 

1. Game of Thrones

2. The Wire

3. The Sopranos

4. Rome

5. Deadwood

6. Silicon Valley

I gotta say that GoT and The Wire are possibly the two greatest series ever.

Especially The Wire. I’m still amazed that the f’d up societal problems and the bureaucratical block to fix them can so be so well summed up in one series. And the frustratingly great thing about the show is that you get an understanding of the bigger picture, why these problems are so hard to solve, and that the gray area is way bigger than you think. I’m not sure I could ever say that a fictional tv show gave me a more well-rounded perception of our society. If you never watched the show you’d think that last statement is crazy...if you have watched the show you probably know exactly what I’m talking about. This, is why The Wire is one of the best ever.

13 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

Why isn't this spike happening in LA, Chicago, Houston or any other major metropolitan area with international airports and harbors with large immigrant populations is my question. 

Also, it really doesn't matter which way this goes, these draconian policies will set precedent for when this happens again, and it will.  It will be oh look numbers under projections so policy success or predictions were right but it could have been worse so policy successful.

I live in Martin county. We don't even have a hospital so really have no idea. The 4 surrounding counties have a total of 4 cases. Rural areas will be fine. 

I'm not sure how you can say that with the slightest degree of confidence; especially writing after the preceding sentence: "We don't even have a hospital". I've heard many interviews where epidemiologists are extremely worried about this spreading inward to the rural areas because they don't have the people, equipment and facilities to handle an outbreak. 

My business is suffering greatly too and I have the deepest sympathy for you and your wife. But take this scenario: your wife gets the virus at the grocery store and she spreads it to a few of her clients, they spread it to their families, their families spread it to others, etc. I know I don't need to educate you in exponential growth, but it just takes one person to unknowingly spread it. It doesn't matter if they are in a rural area or a city; the virus doesn't discriminate. And in a county with very few or no hospitals, that is extremely dangerous. I also understand your argument above about our constitutional rights and if people weren't contagious for long periods of time before exhibiting symptoms I'd 100% be on board with this line of thinking. But given the lack of testing kits available and the fact that people spread it on accident, I believe these precautions are necessary. At least until people can clear themselves somehow to go out in public, which I believe needs to happen sooner rather than later. The economy can't survive this. 

Overall, not saying you are right. Not saying you are wrong. This is a catch 22, no doubt. However, saying "rural areas will be fine" at this point given how quickly this has spread, IMO, is a huge underestimation.

12 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

No question the numbers are concerning. But there is reason to start questioning how serious this really is, how many of those people really need hospitalization, how much the genuinely horrible economic fall out - hundreds of thousands if not “millions” facing unemployment- was really necessary. I’m not drawing some line in the sand or taking a stand, but you can’t just sit back and decide all of this horrible economic disaster was merited. We don’t know that, and there is now reason to start considering whether this is going too far 

Of course we need to question, study and learn from this. But it’s still super early. Also, everybody’s line in the sand different. At what point does the health of our economy over-ride lives - and how many lives will that be? That’s a question none of us want to answer. 

5 hours ago, mrflynn03 said:

Interesting. Apparently this is the model people are basing their decisions on. 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model?

2 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

And now we're back to where we started, really, on Prof. Gupta's team's latest studies indicating that as few as 1 in 1000 who become infected are serious enough to need hospitalization. Well, if that proves out over time, then this entire world economic meltdown may have been just unnecessary.

I’ve read that article and the others posted about the modeling number being off, and yes, that seems to be correct. But this doesn’t negate the fact that the virus is spreading FAST, many people will die and the hospital systems are already overwhelmed when we aren’t close to hitting the peak.

NY had 6,000 new cases in the last 24 hours. That daily number has risen by about 30% every day. Tomorrow it will be more, and it will continue to grow. A lot of people like to compare this to the flu. In the last week of January NY had a reported 8,000 flu cases; now they’re about to have the equivalent of a weeks worth of flu cases in a day. With that current trajectory a day of COAVID19 cases could potentially surpass a month of flu cases. Much of that nation is on the same path as NY. I could be worse if we didn’t begin social distancing. These numbers, as bad as they are right now, are WITH social distancing and STILL people are being denied tests. The actual number (not tested cases) is most likely much higher. 

Does that mean we’re going to get 2.2 million cases? Probably not. But the trajectory is still gravely concerning. And in New York, the number of cases is already higher than what our healthcare systems can handle. 

I’m not sure if we’ll ever be able to answer how necessary social distancing truly will be because there are too many variables. 

FYI. THe Hoosier hysterics guys interviewed the Geronimo family last week. Worth the listen. 

13 hours ago, D-BONE said:

If you liked 1st two seasons of the Sinner, I'd check out 3rd. Still has that feel and Bill Pullman. Storyline not as compelling as first two, but not bad.

Just couldn’t get into it. We only watched the first 2-3 episodes until we realized we didn’t care about the character or what was going on. So we switched to The Stranger, which has a similar feel but hooked us in the first episode. 

14 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Funny thing, that's what we got, Charmin. We love us some soft tissue.

It can’t be any Charmin. It’s gotta be the Charmin red label. Extra strong. Extra soft. 

Re: the West Virginia outlier. Just horrible incompetence all around.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

I’m hoping not, but I fear this thing is an iceberg. The cases we know about are above the water; all the cases who can’t get tested, don’t decide to get tested or are showing no symptoms are below the water. Stay home folks. 

Hope everybody and their families are doing well and healthy. I needed to take a break from news because I was feeling a bit overwhelmed. Really trying to watch less news, and not fixate on stuff I can’t control for my own sanity. So, I watched a lot of Netflix yesterday and played some guitar and feel better mentally. Just a tip if your anxiety is on overdrive. 

I also realize how fortunate I am to be able to do that right now and can’t tell you how appreciative I am for the front line workers. Especially nurses - you are amazing people. 

10 minutes ago, rico said:

Another White House presser going on right now...

The best things coming out of these are Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci. National treasures, these two. 

Hard to hear these stories. 

My wife said that yesterday's The Daily podcast was heartbreaking. They interviewed an Italian doctor and he was explaining how they choose who received treatment and who doesn't. They always choose the younger and healthy. He said it's incredibly sad because the older people they can't treat are forced to stay and families obviously can't visit them - and these people are dying alone. I don't know if I can bring myself to listen to it this morning. Especially because I woke up extra anxious. I'm a small business owner and had the incredible urge to clean out my receivables as best as I can because I don't know if anybody in payables departments will be around in 2 weeks. Hopefully an over-reaction, but just another thing to be concerned with. 

23 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Brady and Brown sure are an odd couple, but Moss and Brady were too...

Opposites attract I guess...

Good thing I have Godwin in my keeper league. I'm just hoping he doesn't become Brady's 3rd favorite target. 

2 hours ago, DWB said:

You may, and probably are correct that there are cases of the virus near me. But there are NO deaths. As of this morning the US has only endured 80 deaths nationwide, and 25+ are from the nursing home in Washington state.

My point was that while the reported number of cases will undoubtedly increase with increased testing, that does not automatically translate into a sudden rise in deaths.

I'm upset that the media, both print and video in a large proportion automatically ASSUME that if you get the Corona virus, you're either dead, or going into ICU. I don't believe that will be the case at all. High risk people will likely require some form of intense care, but for the vast majority of Americans, we'll be no worse off than the seasonal flu.

And now there is a generic drug that shows real promise for therapeutic treatment of the virus...quickly.

The messaging has been really bad especially why the need to social distance. Case and point, when people keep saying it will be no worse than the seasonal flu. This thinking is missing the point and not necessarily the reason why medical experts are calling for self-isolation. 

From what I understand, the danger is not so much that it infects people, it's how quickly it spreads through and infects the population. The flu is not as big of a threat to older people or the medically compromised, but most importantly it doesn't get everybody sick all at one time. The 300,000 or so of flu cases are for the most part spread out over 8-9 months. The question you need to ask yourself, is what would happen if 250k of those 300k flu cases hit in a span 2-3 weeks? Would our healthcare system be prepared for it? This is the coronavirus threat - the speed that it spreads. 

Right now people are able to receive treatment and be put on ventilators, which is keeping the death toll low. What happens when they can't receive treatment? The closest regional hospital to me has 35 ICU beds. What happens if these are all filled when the infections spike 2-3 weeks from now? Where does that 36th and 37th person go?

A big portion of the population will ultimately get coronavirus. The effort being made now is not necessarily for people to avoid getting infected completely - it's so that we all don't get infected at one time. 

6 minutes ago, FritzIam4IU said:

Yep. I just saw Zombie Dust in Martins grocery store too this week. I'm from NW IN originally...now I'm closer to Kokomo area, and I've seen many Three Floyds beers stocked in grocery stores and local liquor stores. I'll try to check out some of the other beers you mentioned this year. Thanks for the tips...I'll post my thoughts after I have had a chance to check them out!

NP. All those breweries I mentioned don’t distribute to Indiana though - just locally. That said, you should be able to find them at a Binnys in Illinois. And in Indiana, 450s distribution is all messed up - I haven’t seen one of their beers in a store up here in a year. 

There are some other mass produced Hazy IPAs from Goose, Sierra Nevada, Revolution, Sam Adams, etc.  in stores, and while many are good, they’re not quite like the ones I mentioned above. 

On 2/29/2020 at 2:19 PM, FritzIam4IU said:

I tried Gumballhead and Zombiedust for the first time this past summer...I recognized your Gumballhead avatar ha. I thought Zombiedust was overrated from all I heard about it in years past, but thought Gumballhead was quite good. I also drink Michelob Ultra as my regular beer.

 

I’ve been a craft beer junkie for more than 10 years. Zombie Dust used to be thee beer a while back. Loaded with citra  hops, when fresh it was the best you could get IMO. But due to its popularity, the millions of breweries that seemed to pop up over night started to copy its flavor profile. I can’t tell you how many breweries I’ve been in where they told me ‘this IPA was made to taste like Zombie Dust’. 

So, now Zombie Dust is another great beer in a sea of great beers. Three Floyds upped its production, demand went down, and now you can get ZD in grocery stores up here in NWI. Which is a great thing.

The recent trend for the last year or 2 has been super juicy, hazy IPAs.....otherwise known as New England IPAs. And while you can get those in Indiana, Chicago is where to drink them. (Although I’ve had some pretty good ones from 450 in Columbus). Even been reading in beer publications that many say that NEIPAs are better in Chicago than in New England. If your in the area look for beers by More, Hop Butcher, Noon Whistle, Phase Three and others that I can’t think of right now. I have a Phase Three in my fridge right now and I swear one of those tall cans went down throat hole in under 5 minutes. At 8% sometimes you need to be careful. Haha. 

Started the show Lock & Key on Netflix....something to watch with the kids (8 and 10 years old). Good show and everybody likes it. 

3 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

And you're ignoring the swine flu. Again, half a million people. We did not go into worldwide panic over it. Listen, I fully get, as does I think everyone, that this is serious. But, frankly, so is the flu, so was the swine flu, etc. The overreaction is causing massive financial destruction nationwide and worldwide. That is not, in any way, a good way to deal with this virus.

Edited:

Geesh, come on man. That link could not be more politically based. Help me out here!!

-blue

Quote

 

In 2009, a new H1N1 influenza virus cropped up out of season, in late spring. Because of genetic similarities to influenza viruses in pigs, it became known as a “swine flu,” even though there is no evidence the virus spread between pigs or pigs to humans.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were about 60.8 million cases of infection with the novel type of influenza virus in the U.S. between April 2009 and April 2010, with a total of approximately 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths.

While that death toll may sound high, it’s over an entire year and, in fact, ended up being far lower than was initially expected. The strain of influenza also turned out to have a case fatality rate of just 0.02% — well below even many typical seasonal influenzas.

Everything that’s known about the new coronavirus so far suggests that it’s an entirely different beast than its most recent pandemic predecessor. Peter Jay Hotez, a professor and dean of the tropical medicine school at Baylor College of Medicine, told us that the new virus, which is known as SARS-CoV-2, is considerably more transmissible and more lethal than H1N1.

For those reasons, he said, “the urgency to contain this coronavirus is so much greater than the H1N1 2009 one was.”

 

2 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

If we can test, find clusters, and successfully contain those clusters, we can quickly go back to the status quo.

The people calling this a hoax coupled with the fact we did absolutely nothing as a country to prepare is what has put us in this situation.  Now, we are in mitigation mode, whereas if we were proactive in initially testing, identifying, and quarantining, we wouldn't have to take these drastic measures.

Our country and other countries have a lot to learn from this. South Korea was ahead of the curve because they had to deal with SARS - they knew what to do. The threat was real to them. The threat wasn't 'real' 2 months ago. Heck, it wasn't even 'real' a week ago.

1 minute ago, rico said:

It is what it is.  We need to deal with it.

Mom and Dad came over last night for supper.  Dad asked some very good questions that were directed at me and Tammy.

Do you guys have enough food for 2 weeks?  A month?

Can you pay your bills without any income coming in for 2 weeks?  A month?

Do you have a 3 month supply of your prescriptions?

Made us think hard.

Excellent message. We can argue about numbers all we want, pretend to be epidemiologists , blame the media, blame politicians, etc.  

At some point we need to grab a shovel and dig our way out - it just makes it hard when we don't have any solid facts. When we don't know how long this will last or how far the market will fall. We need to challenge ourselves to stay positive, move on and do our part. 

30 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

This is certainly an area where people are going to disagree, and no offense taken, at all.

This virus, according to every expert out there, affects the elderly and those with diminished immune systems. It is not dangerous to kids, it is not dangerous to most people across the wide age ranges up to the elderly, or those with healthy immune systems. This is, also, per the "experts." Your not comparing it to the flu based on number of cases is misleading. It really is. It's not a matter of just number of cases -- communicability -- it is how many people become seriously ill and die every single year, to the flu, vs. how many people have died (and in what ages) worldwide to this virus. The flu kills vastly more people, kids, and healthy folks, across all age ranges.

The real point or comparison here is not that this disease does not, or might not eventually kill more people than the flu, it is that, CLEARLY, the flu is an extremely serious diseases that kills people in very large numbers across all age ranges every single year, and we do NOT shut down the world economy over it. Think about the consequences to everyone. Thousands and thousands of people are losing and will lose their jobs, thelr livelihoods, their retirement income/retirement accounts, etc. etc. The stock market is headed towards the great crash of the 20's.

Meanwhile, as of now, appx 6,500  people have died from this virus. The CDC estimates that each year between 12,000 and 61,000 people die from the flu. How many people died from the swine flu alone? Per the CDC, 151,000 to almost 550,000 people worldwide. Almost half a million people, but the world did not go into panic and destroy world economies.

So serious question for you. Do you really think this is being handled correctly? 

I don't think this is being handled correctly because we are in a reactionary state. The fact that this thing was greatly bungled from the start has put us into a situation where all reported statistics aren't the same. We don't know what's what and have jumped to the situation we're in: we're exercising caution on the unknown rather than being proactive and isolating specific clusters. 

BUT because we were late, are still learning about the virus and don't know how many people really have it, we were forced to take extreme measures. The maddening thing is that much of this could have been avoided. 

AND as I'm writing this, we STILL don't have enough testing. Thousands of people are being turned away everyday from taking a test. 

And all due respect, you are comparing numbers to a years worth of flu deaths (4 strains of it) to a virus that started in January. The flu (and the number infected from it) is also something we are for the most part prepared to treat. Corona is a new virus that's growing exponentially and at a rate that's 2 to 3 times faster than the flu. That's why I said above "wait until next week". I really hope I'm wrong but this thing is likely to surpass a whole year's worth of flu cases very quickly. Like Rogue said, at this point it's about not getting to the point where we overwhelming our healthcare system. 

And you didn't really answer my question. Is there a point it needs get to for you not to consider the steps taken in the last 5 days an over-reaction? For me, it's doctors choosing who lives and who dies because they don't have enough equipment or resources to treat everyone.