tdhoosier

There's articles that speculate deaths are over-counted and there are articles saying their under counted: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

If the COVID19 death projections are biased, then let's remove the bias.

This article is interesting because they look at the average total deaths over the past 5 years from March 8 to April 11. This is everything: heart disease, flu, car accidents, etc., they then compare it to total deaths reported this year over the same 35 days. The difference in death rate is called the '% of normal'. This year, New York City has seen a 300+% increase. New Jersey is at +172%, Michigan at +121%, Illinois is at +113%, etc. 

The article goes on to say it was this method that was used to get a more accurate death toll In Puerto Rico from the Hurricane:

Quote

 

Demographers often use measures of total deaths, sometimes called all-cause mortality, to evaluate the effects of natural disasters, where it can be difficult to trace particular causes.

In Puerto Rico in 2017, only 64 deaths were initially attributed to Hurricane Maria. But an analysis of the additional deaths showed the way that the disaster had, directly and indirectly, led to nearly 3,000 deaths over six months. The total included the immediate deaths from mudslides and drownings, but also sepsis, diabetes and suicides that came later as the power failure stretched on for months.

 

It seems like my opinions are in the minority here, so I hope I'm not being 'that guy' who's a buzzkill. Just trying to bring balance to the conversation. While it's very possible some deaths have been over-reported it's just as likely as they have been under-reported. We see this every week when Indiana adds chunks of numbers to their death toll from the backlog of bodies testing positive postmortem. Whether the deaths are a little higher or a little lower......OR if the deaths are related directly to or as a result of the virus, the bottom line it that the death total is way, WAY up.

10 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Can someone explain to me how Pakistan, with a population of almost 213 million has fewer deaths than Indiana, with a population of less then 7 million?

 

You and @mrflynn03 peaked my curiosity and I found article about India. It raises more questions than it answers but still pretty interesting. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/28/india/india-coronavirus-outbreak-explained-intl-hnk/index.html

Not accusing you of saying that is was bioengineered, but I’ve heard many people suspect that and i was referencing the claim from Shi that COVID19 is some sort of hybrid virus or mutation. Which is also highly improbable, again, I’ll direct you to the podcast for more info on that.

I guess I believe the most plausible explanation until I’m proven otherwise, which is: it was transferred to humans from animals. Just like SARS, Ebola, H1N1, and most other new/dangerous viruses. 

Not saying it’s not impossible that a lab somehow got a hold of the virus, was studying it and the let it slip out, but as you said nobody knows. Anything’s possible, I just find the former much more likely because that’s how viruses have historically started. 

1 hour ago, Reacher said:

Wasn't this common knowledge in Jan?

Far from common knowledge. And the claim that that it was bioengineered is just not true, they can tell this from the RNA. 

Here's a podcast with 98 different citations that explains why. An interesting listen: https://gimletmedia.com/shows/science-vs/dvheexn/coronavirus-was-it-made-in-a-lab?utm_source=gimletWebsite&utm_medium=copyShare&utm_campaign=gimletWebsite

54 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yeah I know Girl Talk that’s a crazy tune. 
 

Since you like The War on Drugs (good, Granduciel’s nice blend of moody guitar work and a somewhat Dire Straits like sound but more edgy), do you like Tame Impala? 
I got into Tame about 4 years ago and now they’re trendy lol. I hear a little Zepplin influence 

The whole GT album is crazy!

I love Tame. It’s weird you bring that up because I had ‘Cause I’m A Man’ in my head all day. Not sure how I feel about their new album, but that song ‘On Track’ is so awesome, especially loud and in the car with it fading to various speakers. Kevin Parker’s production is one of a kind.

Watch this lady...... haha

Another good interview on The Daily; this time about testing. Both diagnostic and antibody testing....

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736#episodeGuid=gid%3A%2F%2Fart19-episode-locator%2FV0%2F3sNgr8C9Qk9jqGIUS9jLtYnD07Qik8CDbDcnvGB06bM

Interesting for me to learn that because the CDC was heavily criticized for being too conservative with regulations in regards to not allowing private labs and universities to develop diagnostic tests back in February; they went in a complete different direction with the antibodies tests. They allowed private labs to administer to the public and regulate themselves without any CDC certification in hopes of speeding things up. Problem was that only 3 of the 15 tests were reliable and it created confusion. Some tests had an error rate of 15% for false positives, which is stupidly high. 

42 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

The quarantines and suggested measures were originally intended to keep the hospital system from getting overwhelmed.  Outside of a few areas that doesn't appear to be happening.  Is it just me or does it seem like the goalposts keep moving?

I'm thinking 'moving the goalposts' was the plan all along. It's been a matter of stalling until they learn more about the virus: where it's most prevalent, how doctors are treating it/what the best practices are, what underlying health issues are most at risk, why it affects people differently, etc. They were also stalling to make sure hospitals could get the equipment they need.

I'm not saying they'll learn everything in the next month, but every bit of information they can gather now allows them to make more informed policy decisions in the future, which can save lives. And if you think about it, there's a lot of info that we know now that we didn't know just a week ago. I mean, doctors are finding out that ventilators are now harming some people. At first masks were bad...now they're good. etc. 

Every week we wait gives us a clearer picture, but the question is: how clear of a picture is needed before we re-open? That answer is different in every state. 

I’m tired of getting wrapped up in the internet, social media and cable news. 

It’s very interesting that ‘side 1’ is painting ‘side 2’ as wanting to open up immediately without restrictions. Side 2 apparently doesn’t care about people dying and is in denial.

Side 2 is painting ‘side 1’ as wanting to quarantine until this whole thing is over. Side 1 apparently doesn’t care about the economy and wants to live off the government. 

There may be people with more extreme views on side 1 who have very weakened immune systems and are scared of getting sick, or on side 2 who are living paycheck to paycheck and desperately need to work to put food on the table. I think it’s important to respect each of these realities and consider it.

BUT we also need to remember that the majority of us have an opinion that lies somewhere in the middle. The policies set in the future will also most likely be somewhere in the middle. The gray area is VAST on the issue of moving forward from COVID19.

However, this culture of ‘owning’ the enemy with sick burns and stupid memes during a pandemic is absolutely shameful. There’s a fine line between being critical of others’ views and completely dismissive because it pushes people further into their corners. I find this especially troubling, because now more than ever, whatever is decided by states or on the federal level will only be successful if a majority of us respect it. We can and should be critical (note: not dismissive) of whatever those policies may be without fear of giving up our liberties, but let’s at least respect them, try to make it work and continue to learn from and adapt these policies - whether you are in Georgia, whether you are in Michigan, or somewhere in between. There are no easy decisions right now, especially because we are fighting a virus we know so little about. We are truly in this together, especially in a time when one person’s dismissiveness can effect another’s way of life or their actual life.

...just needed to get that off my chest. 

14 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

I’m a guitarist too, back in high school - college played lead in rock bands, on a Hammer Prototype (triple humbuckers) and a Les Paul (always preferred the deeper resonating sound to Fender Strat’s more tinty sound). Moved into classical guitar in college (have a hand-made Graven) and then straight acoustic and now play almost exclusively acoustic (ovation and an old Gibson). I really only write my own stuff now for fun, but love to play. 

There are so many great guitarists popular and largely undiscovered or barely known. Hendrix, for rock, IMO remains the gold standard. He was so, so far ahead of his time, so original and creative to go with his sick skill playing the guitar upside down, with his teeth etc. 

Among the popular bands, I really like the riffs on songs like Hotel California, Aerosmith’s Walk this Way (that closing lead, oh man), the dual guitar play in Metallica’s One, Welcome to the Jungle, but there is stuff out there like Pat Metheny, etc so many great guitarists and riffs 

I took the opposite path you did. I started off with acoustic because I could never afford the gear in HS and College. And about 8 years ago I switched to electric, which was like a completely new instrument...especially because I grew up on playing Dave Matthews which made me sound really sloppy on electric. 

Ever since I’ve been chasing that Jimi/SRV sound. Strat with the neck and middle pick up going through a blues deluxe. I hear what you say about Strats, but I love them and my shoulders aren’t strong enough to have Les Paul hanging on them for 2 hours. Haha. I do have an Epiphone dot too though.  

Hotel California may be my favorite solo. I never really appreciated it until I learned how to play it....Felder just covers so much in it. I’m going to go back and listen to Walk This Way right now. 

5 minutes ago, BGleas said:

First, I hope everyone that has been personally affected by all of this is doing well, whether it be health, mentally, financially, etc. @IU Scott, I hope you are well my friend!

I posted this in another thread last week, but figured I'd expand on it over here. Me and my family got hit pretty hard last week when my company's board decided to cut salaries by 50%. Not a call I was hoping to get. I'll just give the full story, I run marketing for a small startup supplement company where we offer clinically effective supplements, plant-based protein shakes, etc, and we also give back where for every order on our website, we donate a bottle of our children's multivitamin to a malnourished child around the world. To-date, we've donated over 600,000 vitamins to malnourished children. Sorry, did not intend for that to be a sales pitch, just wanted to fill everyone in on what we do (though I guess that is a sales pitch).  

While we've been growing steadily every year, we're a lean and mean team, mostly utilizing freelancers and consultants. Full time we're a two person company, so legitimately a startup, though we are 7 years old. Seems odd to have a BOD for a two person company, but that's a whole other story. 

Anyways, we're eCommerce which is actually good during this time, but being small and in a saturated industry we don't have the ad budgets of our competitors, so we've built the business largely through partnerships with doctors, personal trainers and boutique gyms, athletes and influencers, which has been great. The problem came in when during this time doctors are not seeing patients and gyms/personal trainers are not seeing clients. We've seen revenue fall by over 30%. 

Not looking for sympathy, as I know a lot of people have it much worse during this time, and I'm grateful the 50% slash wasn't a 100% slash. Time to roll up the sleeves even more and get the revenue rolling again. I'm confident we can do it, but definitely a scary time. 

Maybe we can create a little mini HSN job board during these times? If anyone has a business that's in need of marketing strategy/support, I'm open to consult/free lance as I look to supplement (pun intended) my income. 

Sorry to hear that. You, like me and many others are stuck in limbo. 

I have a distributorship for branded merchandise and the sales from most of my customers are event driven. No events means no orders, so this uncertainty is pretty scary. I remarkably had a pretty good month this past April, but everything I put through is not sustainable as a future revenue source. Luckily we secured a PPP loan to hold us over through the summer, but it looks like it's going to be a rough ride. Luckily, I don't have much overhead. My car lease (business expense) is up in May and I'll hold off on getting a new car because I haven't driven anywhere in a month. Best not to take continue a monthly expense if I don't have to. My wife is also on limited hours, but has still been able to get around 30 hours the past 3 weeks. Overall, I guess the only plan right now is don't spend money, unless its on the essentials like groceries....and alcohol. Best of luck to you @BGleas .

11 minutes ago, DWB said:

You should have told us this was your "virus hibernation project". I would have believed you...at least a minute or two 🤣

This is some random Japanese dude on YouTube. I'm pulling this out of my butt, but I can't imagine there are more than 20 people in the world who could do that. He is playing the beat, bass line, chords and melody all at the same time with just two hands. I've seen people do 2 of the 4 at the same time, but all 4? Just ridiculous.

For anybody who liked that, he has his own youtube channel....so you can go down that wormhole. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNYlXBcX43XtXOxzzKmps2w

Just wanted to say how much I Love the Last Dance and all the memories it brings back. 

Funny, that I odn't remember much when I was 8, but I hated the Pistons so much that I'd yell at the TV because they were so dirty. Also, my entire extended family lived in Michigan and would wear those stupid championship shirts with the cartoon big head drawings and rub it in. I ultimately got the last laugh though. 

36 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Glenn Campbell was a very underrated guitarist as well...check out his version of Mason Williams' "Classical Gas."

 

If you can't tell from my user photo I love guitar. Been playing for 25 years. I can get along, but definitely am no prodigy. Definitely have a long list of favorite guitarists, but IMO, you always have to separate into 2 categories: based on skill and based on creativity. This doesn't mean the creative ones aren't 'skilled' or the skilled ones aren't 'creative'. Most of my favorites are the creative ones; the ones who write melodic solos that are remembered - ones that are printed on you brain and you could whistle from memory. That said, my favorites are Slash, David Gilmour, Don Felder, Jimi, etc. 

But every now and then I'll come across skill like in the video below that makes me want to give up and smash all my guitars. 

35 minutes ago, DWB said:

Whew! I was afraid you were gonna try to get me to listen to Rap, against a jazz background. (can't even imagine that. Would be a good waste of jazz)

That wasn't bad. Thanx for posting.

Glad you liked it, but just realizing now that I inserted the wrong quote. I meant to reply to @Lostin76 .  Haha. 

19 minutes ago, jefftheref said:

Long island ice tea. Rum, gin, vodka, tequila, triple sec, sweet and sour mix and a splash of coke for coloring. Just poured one down the hatch!

Man, I haven’t had a Long Island since I was at Killroys Sports 20 years ago. I should try a ‘real’ one. 

1 hour ago, DWB said:

Couldn't agree more. I learned how to read and play music before I could read words. Played a few instruments all the way into college before giving it up. But music has had a life long,  impact on me. And,  good music can be found in virtually any genre. (except rap....that is not music)

Give this a try. Jazzy at times. Psychedelic at times.

OK....I’m drinking and bored on this rainy day. How about a cocktail thread?

You can spare us the responses “I only drink beer” or “straight bourbon”. I like both, don’t get me wrong, but sometimes a finely crafted cocktail hits the spot. 

My cocktail needs an introduction. My wife took me on a surprise trip to Austin in May last year. It happened to be Paloma season, aka grapefruit season. I may have had the best Paloma and mixed drink of my life down there and I’ve been trying to replicate it ever since. I just made a pretty darn good one with some common household ingredients.

This is my Jimmy rigged Peppered Paloma with some Kirkland Silver Tequila (Best value ever)

2 parts tequila
.5 parts triple sec
2 parts margarita mix
1 part Simply Grapefruit juice
2 fresh jalapeño coins

I’m not sure where to start. Asking me what my favorite band is like asking Shawn Kemp who his favorite child is. 

I grew up in the 90s, but love so many things that came out before that. I’ll listen to anything except that pop country stuff. I like a lot of current music and believe there’s a misconception that there isn’t good music out there any more. There is a ton of great music, it’s just harder to find because there’s so many outlets. Some of my favorite bands/artists of the last decade:

The War on Drugs - it’s like Springsteen meets Pink Floyd ethereal-ness
Father John Misty - Best lyricist out there right now, but the lyrics lyrics are oozed in sarcasm. Folky vibe (used to be the drummer in Fleet Foxes)
Jason Isbell - 2nd best lyricist out there right now. Americana country vibe. If you want to cry, listen to ‘Elephant’.
My Morning Jacket - My favorite live band. Dig their earlier stuff more though.
Whitney - 70s groove vibe. The guitarist is just insanely good - so clean and precise.
Khrungbin - Ambeint guitar music. The trio is just ridiculous. Great for background music that has a Latin feel; I’m obsessed with his guitar tone right now, it’s like a reverb drenched surf tone, but rich instead of twangy. 
White Denim - Guitar rock at it’s finest .
White Reeper - If you just want some 70’s era riff driven rock. 
Lord Huron - Not quite sure how to explain their sound because it’s pretty unique. 

I’m forgetting so many others, but those are probably my most played.

OH - best album ever is Girl Talk - All Day. I’m pretty sure everybody I’ve introduced this to became obsessed; it’s like a journey through the history of rock, rap and pop. *free DL on illegalart.net 

44 minutes ago, hoosier_exotics said:

If we get a second wave of Covid and the herd immunity proves to be non existing,  I believe masks 😷 will be mandatory pretty much everywhere.  

Agree. I think it’s only a matter of time and it didn’t happen sooner because hospitals needed to secure inventory before they started to compete with the public.  

I personally don’t mind wearing one. I think we just need to remember it’s not necessarily for your protection, it’s for others’ protection. I don’t want asymptomatic people breathing on the apples I pick out at the store. 

40 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Elective surgeries to start back up again, this coming Monday in Colorado.

Great for me because I had an ablation postponed. Would rather not have to worry about arrhythmia with this COVID floating around. Also good for my wife who is a PT and will now get all those post-op patients back.  

20 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Same....and I don't know if it's bad sleep, not enough exercise, beer or what but my brain seems like it's in and out of fog mode. By the way....all 3 of those shows are excellent. 

I've committed myself to consistent exercise, eating healthy and less alcohol. It's still happening. 

....but damn that alcohol is slowly creeping back in. 

10 minutes ago, FritzIam4IU said:

All good shows...I did like the Columbia Narcos better than the Mexican seasons though...

I too like both, but i'm #teammexico 

I'm at a stage in my social distancing that I'm actually confusing/intermingling the plotlines of the many shows I'm watching. Lately I've been confusing Narcos Mexico with Ozark 3 with Better Call Sal.

Is my problem that i watch too much tv or that I have some weird fascination with Mexican drug cartels right now?

3 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

And that has me concerned. Their economy goes south, and I can see a global conflict brewing...

China has slowly been tightening their grasp on the balls of other countries for the last 30-40 years like a slow moving train. We consumers like our crap cheap and China filled that void. Although there've been efforts like the TPP or other policies to diversify our supply and cut China out, this ultimately would've taken a Herculean task to unwind.....or a crisis. Unfortunately, we're getting the latter. What I'd give to see 5 years into the future to see what global changes this pandemic will ultimately spur. 

Just revisiting the China convo from a couple of pages back. 

I'm a distributor for promotional merchandise. So much of the stuff I get is from China and a lot of my suppliers are converting their factories over to manufacture PPE, specifically facemasks. I've never sold a face mask in my life up until 2 weeks ago and that's all I'm sourcing and ordering now. 3M and domestic suppliers for facemasks are directing their supplies directly to hospitals so the secondary market has been pushed to China. The secondary market is a mix of Amazon orders, companies trying to secure masks for their essential employees,  companies trying to secure masks for the non-essential employees who will soon be returning to work, etc. It's like the Wild West out there: production times, inventory levels, and prices are changing at the drop of the hat. The main problem right now is that because of the high demands, everything is just sitting on planes or waiting to get on planes. If you have ordered a facemask on Amazon and keep getting updates that your order is delayed another week...this is why. 

The eye opening thing for many is that we are too heavily relying on China in a time of emergency for a crisis they more or less created. They are obviously too interwoven into our supply chain and word on the street is that a huge company in my industry (possibly the biggest) is already reevaluating their their relationship with China and have begun looking at other countries to fulfill their production needs. I'm hoping other companies follow suit. 

While China is sitting pretty right now, I think the long term backlash will be devastating for them. 

@milehiiu also already brought up the fact that they produce so many of our pharmaceuticals. All I can think about now, is what will happen from a production/distribution standpoint when a vaccine is created and needs to be sent to the entire world? I hope planning has already begun for this scenario so we don't have to rely on China as much. 

11 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

With so many unsymptomatic people testing positive, it would not surprise me if the number of people infected exceeds 3%, especially in the hard hit countries.  

And, while it may be spreading through countries with warm climates, it does not seem to be spreading as quickly.  This seems to be the case even within the U.S.   Otherwise, Florida, with their large retirement age population base, would be right up there near the top of deaths.  It's not.   I still think there is legit reason to believe it will, at the least, hibernate during the summer.   

Hope that’s the case. He did say he’s heard it could be as high as 10% but doesn’t think that estimation is accurate. 

I think we may be mixing infection rate and severity of symptoms. I think people’s immune systems are strong in warmer climates because they naturally get more vitamin D from the sun. So, while they may be infected, they’re able to fight it off better? I’m completely talking out of my a**, just a theory - I’m definitely no expert. 

My summarization doesn’t do justice. I still do recommend listening; it’s only 15-20 minutes.