tdhoosier

Re: the West Virginia outlier. Just horrible incompetence all around.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html

I’m hoping not, but I fear this thing is an iceberg. The cases we know about are above the water; all the cases who can’t get tested, don’t decide to get tested or are showing no symptoms are below the water. Stay home folks. 

Hope everybody and their families are doing well and healthy. I needed to take a break from news because I was feeling a bit overwhelmed. Really trying to watch less news, and not fixate on stuff I can’t control for my own sanity. So, I watched a lot of Netflix yesterday and played some guitar and feel better mentally. Just a tip if your anxiety is on overdrive. 

I also realize how fortunate I am to be able to do that right now and can’t tell you how appreciative I am for the front line workers. Especially nurses - you are amazing people. 

10 minutes ago, rico said:

Another White House presser going on right now...

The best things coming out of these are Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci. National treasures, these two. 

Hard to hear these stories. 

My wife said that yesterday's The Daily podcast was heartbreaking. They interviewed an Italian doctor and he was explaining how they choose who received treatment and who doesn't. They always choose the younger and healthy. He said it's incredibly sad because the older people they can't treat are forced to stay and families obviously can't visit them - and these people are dying alone. I don't know if I can bring myself to listen to it this morning. Especially because I woke up extra anxious. I'm a small business owner and had the incredible urge to clean out my receivables as best as I can because I don't know if anybody in payables departments will be around in 2 weeks. Hopefully an over-reaction, but just another thing to be concerned with. 

23 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Brady and Brown sure are an odd couple, but Moss and Brady were too...

Opposites attract I guess...

Good thing I have Godwin in my keeper league. I'm just hoping he doesn't become Brady's 3rd favorite target. 

2 hours ago, DWB said:

You may, and probably are correct that there are cases of the virus near me. But there are NO deaths. As of this morning the US has only endured 80 deaths nationwide, and 25+ are from the nursing home in Washington state.

My point was that while the reported number of cases will undoubtedly increase with increased testing, that does not automatically translate into a sudden rise in deaths.

I'm upset that the media, both print and video in a large proportion automatically ASSUME that if you get the Corona virus, you're either dead, or going into ICU. I don't believe that will be the case at all. High risk people will likely require some form of intense care, but for the vast majority of Americans, we'll be no worse off than the seasonal flu.

And now there is a generic drug that shows real promise for therapeutic treatment of the virus...quickly.

The messaging has been really bad especially why the need to social distance. Case and point, when people keep saying it will be no worse than the seasonal flu. This thinking is missing the point and not necessarily the reason why medical experts are calling for self-isolation. 

From what I understand, the danger is not so much that it infects people, it's how quickly it spreads through and infects the population. The flu is not as big of a threat to older people or the medically compromised, but most importantly it doesn't get everybody sick all at one time. The 300,000 or so of flu cases are for the most part spread out over 8-9 months. The question you need to ask yourself, is what would happen if 250k of those 300k flu cases hit in a span 2-3 weeks? Would our healthcare system be prepared for it? This is the coronavirus threat - the speed that it spreads. 

Right now people are able to receive treatment and be put on ventilators, which is keeping the death toll low. What happens when they can't receive treatment? The closest regional hospital to me has 35 ICU beds. What happens if these are all filled when the infections spike 2-3 weeks from now? Where does that 36th and 37th person go?

A big portion of the population will ultimately get coronavirus. The effort being made now is not necessarily for people to avoid getting infected completely - it's so that we all don't get infected at one time. 

6 minutes ago, FritzIam4IU said:

Yep. I just saw Zombie Dust in Martins grocery store too this week. I'm from NW IN originally...now I'm closer to Kokomo area, and I've seen many Three Floyds beers stocked in grocery stores and local liquor stores. I'll try to check out some of the other beers you mentioned this year. Thanks for the tips...I'll post my thoughts after I have had a chance to check them out!

NP. All those breweries I mentioned don’t distribute to Indiana though - just locally. That said, you should be able to find them at a Binnys in Illinois. And in Indiana, 450s distribution is all messed up - I haven’t seen one of their beers in a store up here in a year. 

There are some other mass produced Hazy IPAs from Goose, Sierra Nevada, Revolution, Sam Adams, etc.  in stores, and while many are good, they’re not quite like the ones I mentioned above. 

On 2/29/2020 at 2:19 PM, FritzIam4IU said:

I tried Gumballhead and Zombiedust for the first time this past summer...I recognized your Gumballhead avatar ha. I thought Zombiedust was overrated from all I heard about it in years past, but thought Gumballhead was quite good. I also drink Michelob Ultra as my regular beer.

 

I’ve been a craft beer junkie for more than 10 years. Zombie Dust used to be thee beer a while back. Loaded with citra  hops, when fresh it was the best you could get IMO. But due to its popularity, the millions of breweries that seemed to pop up over night started to copy its flavor profile. I can’t tell you how many breweries I’ve been in where they told me ‘this IPA was made to taste like Zombie Dust’. 

So, now Zombie Dust is another great beer in a sea of great beers. Three Floyds upped its production, demand went down, and now you can get ZD in grocery stores up here in NWI. Which is a great thing.

The recent trend for the last year or 2 has been super juicy, hazy IPAs.....otherwise known as New England IPAs. And while you can get those in Indiana, Chicago is where to drink them. (Although I’ve had some pretty good ones from 450 in Columbus). Even been reading in beer publications that many say that NEIPAs are better in Chicago than in New England. If your in the area look for beers by More, Hop Butcher, Noon Whistle, Phase Three and others that I can’t think of right now. I have a Phase Three in my fridge right now and I swear one of those tall cans went down throat hole in under 5 minutes. At 8% sometimes you need to be careful. Haha. 

Started the show Lock & Key on Netflix....something to watch with the kids (8 and 10 years old). Good show and everybody likes it. 

3 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

And you're ignoring the swine flu. Again, half a million people. We did not go into worldwide panic over it. Listen, I fully get, as does I think everyone, that this is serious. But, frankly, so is the flu, so was the swine flu, etc. The overreaction is causing massive financial destruction nationwide and worldwide. That is not, in any way, a good way to deal with this virus.

Edited:

Geesh, come on man. That link could not be more politically based. Help me out here!!

-blue

Quote

 

In 2009, a new H1N1 influenza virus cropped up out of season, in late spring. Because of genetic similarities to influenza viruses in pigs, it became known as a “swine flu,” even though there is no evidence the virus spread between pigs or pigs to humans.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were about 60.8 million cases of infection with the novel type of influenza virus in the U.S. between April 2009 and April 2010, with a total of approximately 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths.

While that death toll may sound high, it’s over an entire year and, in fact, ended up being far lower than was initially expected. The strain of influenza also turned out to have a case fatality rate of just 0.02% — well below even many typical seasonal influenzas.

Everything that’s known about the new coronavirus so far suggests that it’s an entirely different beast than its most recent pandemic predecessor. Peter Jay Hotez, a professor and dean of the tropical medicine school at Baylor College of Medicine, told us that the new virus, which is known as SARS-CoV-2, is considerably more transmissible and more lethal than H1N1.

For those reasons, he said, “the urgency to contain this coronavirus is so much greater than the H1N1 2009 one was.”

 

2 minutes ago, rogue3542 said:

If we can test, find clusters, and successfully contain those clusters, we can quickly go back to the status quo.

The people calling this a hoax coupled with the fact we did absolutely nothing as a country to prepare is what has put us in this situation.  Now, we are in mitigation mode, whereas if we were proactive in initially testing, identifying, and quarantining, we wouldn't have to take these drastic measures.

Our country and other countries have a lot to learn from this. South Korea was ahead of the curve because they had to deal with SARS - they knew what to do. The threat was real to them. The threat wasn't 'real' 2 months ago. Heck, it wasn't even 'real' a week ago.

1 minute ago, rico said:

It is what it is.  We need to deal with it.

Mom and Dad came over last night for supper.  Dad asked some very good questions that were directed at me and Tammy.

Do you guys have enough food for 2 weeks?  A month?

Can you pay your bills without any income coming in for 2 weeks?  A month?

Do you have a 3 month supply of your prescriptions?

Made us think hard.

Excellent message. We can argue about numbers all we want, pretend to be epidemiologists , blame the media, blame politicians, etc.  

At some point we need to grab a shovel and dig our way out - it just makes it hard when we don't have any solid facts. When we don't know how long this will last or how far the market will fall. We need to challenge ourselves to stay positive, move on and do our part. 

30 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

This is certainly an area where people are going to disagree, and no offense taken, at all.

This virus, according to every expert out there, affects the elderly and those with diminished immune systems. It is not dangerous to kids, it is not dangerous to most people across the wide age ranges up to the elderly, or those with healthy immune systems. This is, also, per the "experts." Your not comparing it to the flu based on number of cases is misleading. It really is. It's not a matter of just number of cases -- communicability -- it is how many people become seriously ill and die every single year, to the flu, vs. how many people have died (and in what ages) worldwide to this virus. The flu kills vastly more people, kids, and healthy folks, across all age ranges.

The real point or comparison here is not that this disease does not, or might not eventually kill more people than the flu, it is that, CLEARLY, the flu is an extremely serious diseases that kills people in very large numbers across all age ranges every single year, and we do NOT shut down the world economy over it. Think about the consequences to everyone. Thousands and thousands of people are losing and will lose their jobs, thelr livelihoods, their retirement income/retirement accounts, etc. etc. The stock market is headed towards the great crash of the 20's.

Meanwhile, as of now, appx 6,500  people have died from this virus. The CDC estimates that each year between 12,000 and 61,000 people die from the flu. How many people died from the swine flu alone? Per the CDC, 151,000 to almost 550,000 people worldwide. Almost half a million people, but the world did not go into panic and destroy world economies.

So serious question for you. Do you really think this is being handled correctly? 

I don't think this is being handled correctly because we are in a reactionary state. The fact that this thing was greatly bungled from the start has put us into a situation where all reported statistics aren't the same. We don't know what's what and have jumped to the situation we're in: we're exercising caution on the unknown rather than being proactive and isolating specific clusters. 

BUT because we were late, are still learning about the virus and don't know how many people really have it, we were forced to take extreme measures. The maddening thing is that much of this could have been avoided. 

AND as I'm writing this, we STILL don't have enough testing. Thousands of people are being turned away everyday from taking a test. 

And all due respect, you are comparing numbers to a years worth of flu deaths (4 strains of it) to a virus that started in January. The flu (and the number infected from it) is also something we are for the most part prepared to treat. Corona is a new virus that's growing exponentially and at a rate that's 2 to 3 times faster than the flu. That's why I said above "wait until next week". I really hope I'm wrong but this thing is likely to surpass a whole year's worth of flu cases very quickly. Like Rogue said, at this point it's about not getting to the point where we overwhelming our healthcare system. 

And you didn't really answer my question. Is there a point it needs get to for you not to consider the steps taken in the last 5 days an over-reaction? For me, it's doctors choosing who lives and who dies because they don't have enough equipment or resources to treat everyone. 

8 hours ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

So now all my kids will be home next week when Northwestern’s spring break begins - it is going online like IU, same for my other 2 kids’ schools. 
 

And the Fed has cut interest rates to zero, which will have the immediate effect of another stock market dive. (But time to look into refining your loans.)

Yes, this is overblown. Yes, everyone is going into sheer panic mode on a virus that affects the elderly and people with weakened immune systems. No, it’s generally not a dangerous virus for everyone else. The Flu however is. We don’t ruin the world economy and people’s’ financial lives over the flu. 
 

This is starting to look like some kind of zombie apocalypse show. Or the video game The Division (based on a virus that wrecked the world). Hopefully people / governments will get their crap together and start approaching this in a way that doesn’t force thousand if not millions into financial disaster. This is not a responsible approach to a virus 

Sometimes it's hard to establish tone in in text, so I don't ask this in a condescending way because I respect you as a poster and a mod. I'm just curious to know: what needs to happen for you to think this is not overblown? 

Is it if the death toll eventually surpasses that of the flu, or by how much? Is it if we get into a situation like Italy where there's not enough hospital beds to care for the medically compromised - and doctors have to choose lives and dies? Is it, if we begin to run out of healthcare workers because they have been infected?

....because we are in the very beginning stages of this still. 

I'm coming from a place where I've been listening to epidemiologists, disease experts, doctors, researchers, etc. for the last two months being interviewed on podcasts. At first, I thought that it can't get that bad, we will be prepared, etc., but week by week their predictions have come to fruition. Now, they are saying (and I include 'they' as a infectious disease expert and IU Health researcher who I personally know) the number of cases reported is not close to accurate, the government wasn't prepared with testing kits a month ago and this thing has spread in an uncontrolled environment, the number of infected is going to jump GREATLY at the end of the week (or whenever the testing kits are ready and start yielding results), we won't have enough ventilators and we won't have enough hospital beds.

I've heard many people compare this to the flu, which I disagree with. I have not heard ONE expert in infectious diseases say this. Yes many of the same symptoms are the same, but this is the flu on steroids, it's MUCH more contagious, even at low estimates it's much more deadly, and it spreads at a MUCH faster rate. If you want to start comparing numbers to the flu, then wait 2 weeks. Now it's all about flattening the curve to best minimize the chances of our health system being overwhelmed. Perhaps this degree of extreme precautionary measures could've been avoided if we would've been properly prepared to isolate the early cases in the US, but it wasn't, and now we are scrambling and being reactionary.

At this point it is what it is. I want to get back to normal life and it hasn't even been a week. Selfishly, I have a medical procedure that's most likely going to get postponed because it's deemed 'elective', I'm self-employed and business is going to get hammered the longer this goes on, I'm ALREADY sick of my own kids, I just had to cancel a vacation, etc. Many are in the same boat - I'm looking at the people not adhering to self isolation, going out to bars, congregating, etc. as those prolonging the time it takes to get back to normal. For everybody: please remember that being responsible gets us back to 'normal' sooner. 

22 minutes ago, Inequality said:

For the Indiana folk..

Not trying to freak anybody out but we’ll find out later this week how inaccurately low these numbers are. The scary thing is nobody can get tested - even those with symptoms are being turned away because nobody has enough. They are saving the tests they have for those with severe symptoms  

just heard from a friend that IU Health just gotta permission to use a test they developed. And when the federal ordered tests arrive, these numbers are going to jump way up. 

Per IU:

In light of the World Health Organization’s declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, IU has released the following immediate and necessary updates:

IU is suspending face-to-face classes and transitioning to virtual learning for the remainder of the spring semester.

Spring Break will extend one additional week, now from March 14 to 29 in order to accommodate faculty transition to online instruction and to provide travel flexibility for all students. Virtual classes will begin on March 30.

Students in courses with clinical experiences or field work will receive further instruction from the academic leaders in their programs

IU will close most of its on-campus housing on March 20. Procedures for move-out and transition policies, including retrieving essential items, will be provided to housing residents by Tuesday.

All IU-affiliated events and gatherings should be postponed, canceled, or conducted virtually for the rest of the academic semester. IU will assess in the coming weeks the future of its Commencement Ceremony that is scheduled in May.

Men’s and Women’s Little 500 bike races are canceled for this academic semester. They will be reassessed for future dates beyond this semester if that becomes possible.

IU campuses remain open with limited operations. Staff and faculty who are able to meet their work obligations from home by telecommuting and are in a position to do so should continue.

At this time, we continue to have no confirmed cases at IU, but with the anticipated greater availability of test kits, this could change very quickly.

We understand how very difficult and deeply disappointing these steps will be for many students, staff and faculty. Thank you for your understanding and willingness to navigate the disruption caused by this virus.

Students in courses with clinical experiences or fieldwork will receive further instruction from the academic leaders in their programs.nt – visit coronavirus.iu.edu.

22 minutes ago, SteveS said:

I just got this from my brother:
 

Stanford warns public about bogus coronavirus breathing test, calling it 'misinformation'

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/stanford-disowns-breathing-test-claim-for-coronavirus-as-misinformation

Not as bad as this one though...

27 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

Criminal minds and This is us. Also Blue Bloods. Tom Selleck is great.  

And series that are underappreciated Monk and Parks and Rec. 

Finally watched parks and rec this summer. John Ralphio and Mona Lisa are the best characters ever. 

Since a lot of us will have some free time on our hands; i thought this thread could be resourceful. Name 2 shows you binged hardcore this year and 2 you are inquiring about (to see if others HSNers have seen them and would recommend them).

Bingeworthy. (Period)
1. Messiah on Netflix: I’m embarrassed to say I watched the entire first season in 36 hours.
2. The Outsiders on HBO: Great show written by Stephen King; season 1 just wrapped last week

Bingeworhty? (Question mark)
1. Dispatchers from Elsewhere: See the commercials during Better Call Saul; looks interesting, but also looks weird. Worth it?
2. The Sinner (Season 3): I watched the first 2 seasons, but know absolutely nothing about season 3. 

44 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

Heard this self test from a doctor on tv this morning.  If you can hold your breath for 10 seconds or longer.  You don't have the Coronavirus. 

Hahaha. Misread this....thought you wrote 10 minutes, which would've been a great way to weed out the stupid. That or it can be cured by eating Tide pods. 

1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

As with the test kits...maybe the individual states should grow a set of balls, develope their own kits and, forget about the FDA. 

A doctor and researcher developed her own test in Washington. Because of all the bureaucracy she couldn't use it - she decided to side step the government and was the one who caught that initial cluster in Washington. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

I was listening to a podcast and the epidemiologist being interviewed said that as a country we are over-reacting and under-reacting at the same time. And the under-reaction is causing the over-reaction.

I'll try to summarize:

-We have tested (as of yesterday) 8,000 people total. In comparison South Korea is testing 10,000 a day. The lack of urgency to get test kits a month ago put us behind the ball.
-Being able to test earlier would have allowed us to locate clusters. Thus, only quarantining those areas instead of having a mass panic and trying to quarantine everything. We don't know who has the virus and what areas it is most prevalent in. If you don't know this info; it's hard to minimize the spread. 
-Apparently a million testing kits were supposed to be here last week. They still aren't here. 
-Don't panic when we start testing more people because the number of infected are going to jump greatly. This information is good (despite the bad results it may show) because it's going to allow us to locate clusters, which is a whole lot better than running around like chicken with our heads cut off. This is the first step in flattening the curve. 

What doesn't help is people trying to minimize the virus as a 'hoax' or a 'political ploy' or saying it's 'not as bad as the flu' or saying 'it's okay to go to work if you have symptoms'. Every one of those theories or thoughts have been proven untrue. Don't freak out, but also take it seriously and don't spread misinformation. 

I never listen to Dakich, but I wanted to hear that Wayne Winston interview, which was great. He confirmed a lot of stuff we all have been talking about. 

-Don't have Brunk and TJD on the floor at the same time.
-Assist numbers are low because we don't drive the lane and kick out - a result of having two bigs in the paint.
-We are getting killed on hedges. 
-Rob and Green on the floor at the same time is not a good combo (at the beginning of the season I was wondering why they didn't play together, but we have been learning why ever since December.)

And then I listened to the beginning of the podcast, which just made me shake my head. I know Dakich's reputation of being a know at all, but I thought his show was an extension of his play by play commentary (which I really don't mind). Wow, talk about somebody who is divisive. I guess I'm just a little disappointed of a former player and coach I used to respect. He has the ability to offer insightful analysis but for some reason feels the need to bloody the waters for no good reason. I hate this culture of relentlessly attacking people who don't agree with you. Ironically, when I went to watch Dakich speak at an event about 10 years ago all that he talked about is healthy culture. It seems as he's created a persona and his fed into it while his exposure online and in the media increased. Somewhere along the way it seems he lost himself. 

....I'll continue not to listen. 
 

I think there's a fine line between adding a OAD and building around them. 

In a perfect world, I'd rather win without a bunch of OADs (or none) - I'd like to win with guys you can see progress for 3-4 years. But if a OAD (or two) is going to come in and help us do that I wouldn't mind that either. It's like if somebody told me that I could have an all expense paid trip to Fiji or the Maldives. I've always wanted to go to Fiji, but if I was forced to go to the Maldives I wouldn't mind. 

On the other hand, I'd rather win a NC with 4 OADs then not make the tournament again. Perhaps that'd be a trip to Mexico in the scenario I painted above - I still wouldn't mind vacationing there either. 

Maybe when we start winning something (anything) then we can complain about how we are winning. 

I consider any major decision I make regarding mine and my family's future a business decision. Guess I'm going to hell. 🔥😕🔥