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Big10 Unbalanced schedule


fasbjd

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We all know that the unbalanced schedule of the B10 has put IU at a disadvantage in the conference standing - IU 6 single plays include 5 vs the bottom 5 teams in the standings and the only upper tier team we only play once is Maryland who we had to play at Maryland (where they are undefeated in conference) vs getting them on the road (where they have played poorly).  I set out to actually quantify how skewed the schedules are.  I took each teams single play games and looked at the opponent conference records with regards to the venue played (home vs road), totaled them up, then looked at the opponent win %.  The higher the win %, the better the opponents are that the team did not have to play due to the unbalanced schedule, and vice versa.  The results as of posting, listed in order of lowest opponent win % (the most difficult schedule) to highest (easiest schedule):

Win % of opponents not played due to unbalanced schedule

Team

Opponent Win %

Indiana 32.6%
Northwestern 33.3%
Ohio State 36.7%
Nebraska 42.6%
Michigan State 44.9%
Michigan 46.8%
Wisconsin 49.0%
Illinois 55.1%
Maryland 55.1%
Penn State 56.5%
Minnesota 58.3%
Iowa 61.2%
Purdue 63.0%
Rutgers 64.0%

 

Pretty much confirms what we expected - IU has the worst unbalanced schedule and Purdue one of the most favorable.  NW's success is even more surprising seeing the difficulty of their schedule compared to some of the other top tier teams.

Edited by fasbjd
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With the days of every team playing each other twice per season behind us and never to return, I don't know that you will ever get a balanced conference schedule. I have no idea what the formula is for making the conference schedules year over year but I would bet it is based on some standard rotation (e.g. Team A and Team B only played once this year so they will play twice the next, etc). I would be surprised if "strength of schedule" is even part of the equation. 

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Viewing that and considering the fact that we played without 2 veteran starters for 5 games, one of them our point guard for half the season, and started 1-4 in Big 10 play, I'd say Coach Woodson has done a helluva job...

He won't get any votes for Big 10 Coach of the Year (I think Collins gets that with Painter a close second) but I think he's done a whale of a job... 

 

 

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I’m not sure if there is any attempt to put a schedule together that tries to balance out level of competition (ie try to make the above number as close to 50% for each team).  Clearly, it would be an impossible task as there would be no way of seeing NW being this good and OSU this bad.  
 

In reality, the best thing for the conference as a whole is to try to get all the top tier, NCAA tourney quality teams to play each other twice.  It would boost their NET and give additional opportunities for Quad 1/2 wins.   Though the schedule as it is, helps Rutgers’ conference record and seeding in the BTT, it does their overall portfolio an injustice - which puts extra pressure on them to win that game at Mackey.

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3 hours ago, btownqb said:

Injuries or injury... was a way bigger deal than the schedule, though. We are conference regular season champs if XJ was healthy the whole way. 

Agreed, but imagine if we swapped home vs NW for home vs Minnesota, at Iowa for at Ohio State, and at Rutgers for at Nebraska. That’s basically what PU got (and a little more). There’s a good chance 2 or 3 of those would’ve been wins instead of losses even after the injuries, and we’d be in the drivers seat for at least a share of the big ten title.

Just an unlucky draw, but the unbalanced schedule can skew conference records a few games either way.

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4 hours ago, fasbjd said:

We all know that the unbalanced schedule of the B10 has put IU at a disadvantage in the conference standing - IU 6 single plays include 5 vs the bottom 5 teams in the standings and the only upper tier team we only play once is Maryland who we had to play at Maryland (where they are undefeated in conference) vs getting them on the road (where they have played poorly).  I set out to actually quantify how skewed the schedules are.  I took each teams single play games and looked at the opponent conference records with regards to the venue played (home vs road), totaled them up, then looked at the opponent win %.  The higher the win %, the better the opponents are that the team did not have to play due to the unbalanced schedule, and vice versa.  The results as of posting, listed in order of lowest opponent win % (the most difficult schedule) to highest (easiest schedule):

Win % of opponents not played due to unbalanced schedule

Team

Opponent Win %

Indiana 32.6%
Northwestern 33.3%
Ohio State 36.7%
Nebraska 42.6%
Michigan State 44.9%
Michigan 46.8%
Wisconsin 49.0%
Illinois 55.1%
Maryland 55.1%
Penn State 56.5%
Minnesota 58.3%
Iowa 61.2%
Purdue 63.0%
Rutgers 64.0%

 

Pretty much confirms what we expected - IU has the worst unbalanced schedule and Purdue one of the most favorable.  NW's success is even more surprising seeing the difficulty of their schedule compared to some of the other top tier teams.

They've got the hardest stretch of their schedule remaining, so let's see where they end up 

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7 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

It’s not football 

if it’s such an advantage why don’t teams punt the BTT and rest up for NCAA?

 

I'm not going to entertain the idea that this isn't a pretty big advantage. That's a poor take. 

Because you get 5 days to rest after the BTT? 

Edited by btownqb
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4 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

It’s not football 

if it’s such an advantage why don’t teams punt the BTT and rest up for NCAA?

 

I'd venture to say aerobic conditioning wise, it's tougher than football...

And Trayce has averaged 37 mpg over his last 12, with 8 of those being 39 or 40 minutes... 

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1 minute ago, IUFLA said:

I'd venture to say aerobic conditioning wise, it's tougher than football...

And Trayce has averaged 37 mpg over his last 12, with 8 of those being 39 or 40 minutes... 

You can clearly play more basketball games in a short span than football games, so the comparisons between the sports is dumb. 

It's not really even a physical thing for me.... 

who's Purdue prepared for since Sunday? Indiana

Who's Indiana prepared for since Saturday? MSU.... that ain't equal. Oh well though. 

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Just now, btownqb said:

You can clearly play more basketball games in a short span than football games, so the comparisons between the sports is dumb. 

It's not really even a physical thing for me.... 

who's Purdue prepared for since Sunday? Indiana

Who's Indiana prepared for since Saturday? MSU.... that ain't equal. Oh well though. 

No amount of preparation is going to help Braden Smith guard anyone on our team. 

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Just now, btownqb said:

You can clearly play more basketball games in a short span than football games, so the comparisons between the sports is dumb. 

It's not really even a physical thing for me.... 

who's Purdue prepared for since Sunday? Indiana

Who's Indiana prepared for since Saturday? MSU.... that ain't equal. Oh well though. 

Sure, but I'd say that was more injury related/body healing...and you unless you're Chuck Bednarik ("Google it!" Stephen Bardo would say) you only play one side of the ball...

You're absolutely right in the preparation comment... But I sure wish we had a weeks rest waiting for TJD... 

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